Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Turtwig

The vast majority of people who get COVID should be fine. This includes those over 70. Most people will be fine. That really does need to be emphasised.

Trouble is a few won't. A question that arises then is a year from now how many of those will still require additional health care support and how extensive will the requirements be?

Less than 10,000, people in Ireland have MS. The conditions still requires significant health care resources to be provided for patients. What will our COVID figure be? How will it be impacted by at risk groups and those of very little risk? For other generally less innocuous viruses about 1% of people have prolonged complications. Even if we assume long term care for COVID is significant factor less than this amount we could still have such a volume of people that the future resource drain and impact to other health care supports for other illnesses could be severely impacted.


That's why Long Covid monitoring is really important. Currently, no place is actually doing it.
There was a pretty scathing article in the science Journal Nature months back about this.
We need to know what our anticipated impact to our long term health care systems is going to be to be able to mitigate the pressures as much as possible.

Another way to consider this is what is going to the long term impact of COVID on our health insurance premiums? And, for people who had the illness will it impact their individual premiums, a claim for income continuance, life insurance etc? If there is little to no data how will the insurers actually determine this?

BredonWimsey

Happydays2020 wrote: »

You are arguing with everyone. But indeed a pleasure to say goodbye.

you called me a slave with no context. but I am arguing because i say i dont want to engage anymore. look enjoy your day.

TonyMaloney

seamus wrote: »

Good progress on hospital admissions over the weekend. Down to their lowest level since 4th January. Means we should see a good solid dent made in the hospital numbers this week. Could be down as low as 1,600 by next weekend.

And lower hospital admissions means fewer ICU admissions. Which means the pressure on ICU should begin to ease off imminently.

I'm a little suspicious of the hospital data from the weekend.
To go from 172 admissions five days ago to 63 in the last 24 hours just doesn't seem right to me.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm a little suspicious of the hospital data from the weekend.
To go from 172 admissions five days ago to 63 in the last 24 hours just doesn't seem right to me.

Ah but the 172 admissions was a bit of an outlier itself, so not really a valid comparison. There were far fewer admissions (114) the day before or day after.

Happydays2020

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm a little suspicious of the hospital data from the weekend.
To go from 172 admissions five days ago to 63 in the last 24 hours just doesn't seem right to me.

We did see a sharp drop in cases about 10 days ago, it plateaued and is now declining again. Presumably this will correlate in hospital data. Same way we had a sharp rise in the first week of the year.

CIARAN_BOYLE

TTLF wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0125/1191810-world-covid-19/

Just a question, What's the reason behind the new masks and what do they do? The New Strain??

They are better masks.

The reas ok n behind it is that they hope good masks will do a better job and limiting spread.

corcaigh07

BredonWimsey wrote: »

its not trendy and not a joke. what else are people supposed to call it? they are sick for an extended period time after developing covid.

Post Viral Fatigue

Gruffalux

polesheep wrote: »

Mainstream media has been milking this for all it is worth with a negative message, but if they lie they can indeed be held to account and often are.

In fairness whatever about the guff on youtube etc of which one would automatically be suspicious, the mainstream media has become far less independent on most issues over the past years. It is more and more merely an unchallenged spin doctor for acceptable ideologies.

SheepsClothing

OwenM wrote: »

Even the "Expert Shroud Wavers" like Killeen, McConkey, Staines, Ryan etc seem to be shy when it comes to numbers of people with 'long covid' and god knows they love getting a good scare piece in the media. If they had even half baked numbers you can bet they would be shouting about it.

They probably don't have the numbers, so don't want to release incorrect or incomplete information. Pretty similar to the people who have been warning of a suicide epidemic for the last 9 months, but can't yet produce any evidence.

BredonWimsey

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Post Viral Fatigue

does it matter what they call it though?

Happydays2020

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

They are better masks.

The reas ok n behind it is that they hope good masks will do a better job and limiting spread.

In public transport situations I can definitely see the benefits of a proper mask used properly. For other situations it is probably less important.

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Ah but the 172 admissions was a bit of an outlier itself, so not really a valid comparison. There were far fewer admissions (114) the day before or day after.

Sure. I'm a little suspicious of that 172 too.

But at 5.86% hospitalisation rate, we'd have needed daily cases to have been at about 1,100 about a week ago or more to be seeing admissions today in the 60s.

I hope I'm wrong, but I strongly suspect we'll see another big jump in admissions.

Happydays2020

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sure. I'm a little suspicious of that 172 too.

But at 5.86% hospitalisation rate, we'd have needed daily cases to have been at about 1,100 about a week ago or more to be seeing admissions today in the 60s.

I hope I'm wrong, but I strongly suspect we'll see another big jump in admissions.

What was the hospitalisation rate in October/November when everyone who wanted a test got one? Vs post Christmas/ early January when it was very much symptom driven.

CrabRevolution

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sure. I'm a little suspicious of that 172 too.

But at 5.86% hospitalisation rate, we'd have needed daily cases to have been at about 1,100 about a week ago or more to be seeing admissions today in the 60s.

I hope I'm wrong, but I strongly suspect we'll see another big jump in admissions.

I hope you're wrong too. I've become very cynical of low numbers from seeing too many L-shaped graphs where a day or two of low numbers gets followed by a single day of sky-high numbers.

froog

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(21)00007-4/fulltext

Nice article on the latest thinking on airborne transmission, PPE and some mythbusting.

mcburns07

titan18 wrote: »

They gave him a warning to go home and he said he would. Then he did not as he just went to another beach.

Seems fine to me to fine him

Whatever about the fine, probably deserved given the circumstances. Gardaí gloating about it on Twitter is in my opinion unnecessary and comes across as childish.

I happen to live within 5km of that beach and it hasn't been particularly busy despite the fine weather we've had this month.

TonyMaloney

If the hospital data is correct, we're witnessing an incredible decline in hospitalisation rates. I suppose given the nature of our outbreak - 3 weeks of very high social activity, bookended by very low levels of activity - it is possible that we'll see a sharp fall.

But this does look suspicious

Icyseanfitz

What are our hospital and icu numbers at today?

pauly58

There was a very good article in The Irish Times this morning by Una Mullally titled The Government failing to lead us. I think they have been woeful. Martin says they will be "cautious & conservative": Pity they weren't in December. Letting the numbers in that they did was madness.

Asking people to self isolate when they were coming over to visit friends & family was never going to work, if they did there would be no point in them coming. A negative test for visitors should have been brought in ages ago.

We have 1500 Brazilians wandering around, were any checks done to make sure they were self isolating ? Making them quarantine somewhere secure would have been something.

I've never had any time for Martin as a Minister but with the likes of Ryan involved as well as Varadkar, it's difficult to take a positive view of our way out of this. All we hear is the Government are considering..... How about the Government are actually doing something.

BredonWimsey

pauly58 wrote: »

There was a very good article in The Irish Times this morning by Una Mullally titled The Government failing to lead us. I think they have been woeful. Martin says they will be "cautious & conservative": Pity they weren't in December. Letting the numbers in that they did was madness.

Asking people to self isolate when they were coming over to visit friends & family was never going to work, if they did there would be no point in them coming. A negative test for visitors should have been brought in ages ago.

We have 1500 Brazilians wandering around, were any checks done to make sure they were self isolating ? Making them quarantine somewhere secure would have been something.

I've never had any time for Martin as a Minister but with the likes of Ryan involved as well as Varadkar, it's difficult to take a positive view of our way out of this. All we hear is the Government are considering..... How about the Government are actually doing something.

yes exactly the lack of leadership is very worrying - there's no one to take their place though which is even more concerning. its strange to me and i dont know how other countries do it - but someone with no expertise in a certain area becomes Minister of Finance, Health, Foreign Policy etc. so what value are they really providing if they are not experts in their field. there are alot of fine men and women in ireland who should consider entering politics and they would certainly do a better job.

Plumbthedepths

BredonWimsey wrote: »

yes exactly the lack of leadership is very worrying - there's no one to take their place though which is even more concerning. its strange to me and i dont know how other countries do it - but someone with no expertise in a certain area becomes Minister of Finance, Health, Foreign Policy etc. so what value are they really providing if they are not experts in their field. there are alot of fine men and women in ireland who should consider entering politics and they would certainly do a better job.

Two Doctors have held the portfolio of MOH both of whom were useless in the role.

MerlinSouthDub

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Two Doctors have held the portfolio of MOH both of whom were useless in the role.

One of the things I really can't stand is nurses, doctors and consultants giving out about how bad the HSE is. Their only solution is more money, more money, more money. We spend more per capita on the health service than any other country in the EU, and we have the youngest population in the EU. The solution is not money. If nurses and doctors could come up with an actual credible plan to solve the problems, I might listen.

JacksonHeightsOwn

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

One of the things I really can't stand is nurses, doctors and consultants giving out about how bad the HSE is. Their only solution is more money, more money, more money. We spend more per capita on the health service than any other country in the EU, and we have the youngest population in the EU. The solution is not money. If nurses and doctors could come up with an actual credible plan to solve the problems, I might listen.

Pay them more perhaps?

froog

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

One of the things I really can't stand is nurses, doctors and consultants giving out about how bad the HSE is. Their only solution is more money, more money, more money. We spend more per capita on the health service than any other country in the EU, and we have the youngest population in the EU. The solution is not money. If nurses and doctors could come up with an actual credible plan to solve the problems, I might listen.

The problem with the health service has always been too many unnecessary people in management that are untouchable because of unions. That's your money sink right there. Investment is definitely needed but its a mexican stand off with the government who are reluctant to throw money at them unless the bloat is sorted.

MerlinSouthDub

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Pay them more perhaps?

Yep, that should sort it out!

Highest paid nurses and highest paid consultants in the EU

cannotlogin

Drew Harris seems to be doing a fairly good job implementing changes in the Gardai.

Do we need similar with an outsider appointed in the hse?

mohawk

TonyMaloney wrote: »

If the hospital data is correct, we're witnessing an incredible decline in hospitalisation rates. I suppose given the nature of our outbreak - 3 weeks of very high social activity, bookended by very low levels of activity - it is possible that we'll see a sharp fall.

But this does look suspicious

I am inclined to agree with you. I know of many who were not obeying the household restrictions in November but are now. As the numbers got really big really fast a huge amount of people just cut out whatever visiting they were doing previously. I am not convinced that it’s a genuine drop though.

The_Brood

The Dutch, previously the only E U nation more placid and obedient to authority than Ireland, now out fighting for their freedom on the streets. I dont know if they are normal people or anti mask nutters, but governments must pay for their lack of clarity and organisation that is causing devestation.

Meehoe Tony and Leo still doing whatever they want unabated.

Cluedo Monopoly

pauly58 wrote: »

There was a very good article in The Irish Times this morning by Una Mullally titled The Government failing to lead us. I think they have been woeful. Martin says they will be "cautious & conservative": Pity they weren't in December. Letting the numbers in that they did was madness.

Asking people to self isolate when they were coming over to visit friends & family was never going to work, if they did there would be no point in them coming. A negative test for visitors should have been brought in ages ago.

We have 1500 Brazilians wandering around, were any checks done to make sure they were self isolating ? Making them quarantine somewhere secure would have been something.

I've never had any time for Martin as a Minister but with the likes of Ryan involved as well as Varadkar, it's difficult to take a positive view of our way out of this. All we hear is the Government are considering..... How about the Government are actually doing something.

Always reactive, never proactive.

I blame the permanent government too e.g. senior public/civil servants. The Dept of Education, for example, must be run by complete layabouts.

ginoginelli

pauly58 wrote: »

There was a very good article in The Irish Times this morning by Una Mullally titled The Government failing to lead us. I think they have been woeful. Martin says they will be "cautious & conservative": Pity they weren't in December. Letting the numbers in that they did was madness.

Asking people to self isolate when they were coming over to visit friends & family was never going to work, if they did there would be no point in them coming. A negative test for visitors should have been brought in ages ago.

We have 1500 Brazilians wandering around, were any checks done to make sure they were self isolating ? Making them quarantine somewhere secure would have been something.

I've never had any time for Martin as a Minister but with the likes of Ryan involved as well as Varadkar, it's difficult to take a positive view of our way out of this. All we hear is the Government are considering..... How about the Government are actually doing something.

Eamon ryan has fought tooth and nail not to restrict travellers. He only reluctantly brought in a a negative pcr test requirement pre travel from some countries after massive pressure from nephet and the opposition. He also completely rejected the Nephets plea that travellers be tested 5 days after arrival as well.

He was also been behind the ridiculous travel forms that nobody follows up on.

More smoke and mirrors today from him that south Africans without a pcr test will be quarantined. As if that shouldnt have been an obvious corollary once the initial ban was brought in from those countries.

90 percent in a recent poll are now asking fo real quarantine, as are the opposition and Nephet.

I dont say this lightly, him and whoever else that have been slyly and deliberately thwarting attempts to restrict travel have blood on his hands.