Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Tucker tunsel

Can someone give us a picture of how bad they think it will get in say a week or 2 time....

Are we talking about how bad Italy was

GreeBo

Steve F wrote: »

Yes but we didn't "Learn" did we?

The idea that somehow we are different will pervades in some areas.. Oh Bergamo is just old people, sure the Chinese are mad, UK is textured cuz of Brexit, etc etc.

By and large, people are just thick it appears.

GreeBo

Tucker tunsel wrote: »

Can someone give us a picture of how bad they think it will get in say a week or 2 time....

Are we talking about how bad Italy was

Numbers are doubling every 3 or so days, I reckon you can join the did there to see what happens if that continues, but if your can't it basically means people start to die from things that can be prevented

Widdensushi

Tucker tunsel wrote: »

Can someone give us a picture of how bad they think it will get in say a week or 2 time....

Are we talking about how bad Italy was

Treatment has improved since then, they have had 9 months to plan also, while it will help it will be a ****show that is impossible to predict

Tucker tunsel

GreeBo wrote: »

Numbers are doubling every 3 or so days, I reckon you can join the did there to see what happens if that continues, but if your can't it basically means people start to die from things that can be prevented

I hear you. Thanks for your reply.

Cluedo Monopoly

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

But it's a very basic fact.
If hospitals cannot cope with numbers then treatment services will deteriorate and people will die. I am sure it happened in the past during our many winters of trolley crises.

What is Dr John telling us that is news?

nobody he is saying that he is the oracle of Delphi more that did we ever see it getting to this state in Ireland?

it's the first time that he has really covered Ireland 'cos the sh1t has hit the fan.

the deterioration of the situation has been unbelievably rapid.

Covid has dined out on the "The Paddies does Christmas" between the pre-Christmas luncher groups in the restaurants, same people heading back to families, extended families, throw in some people coming back from abroad.

kilkenny31

Tucker tunsel wrote: »

Can someone give us a picture of how bad they think it will get in say a week or 2 time....

Are we talking about how bad Italy was

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

SuperRabbit

Steve F wrote: »

Very.
This is definitely going to be the worst of the Pandemic.
Wish I could jump in a Time Machine and whizz ahead to May or June...I feel the worst will be behind us then

i'm afraid to get my hopes up

something I took from "man's search for meaning" is don't fixate on dates thinking it will have to be over by that date

Cluedo Monopoly

glasso wrote: »

nobody he is saying that he is the oracle of Delphi more that did we ever see it getting to this state in Ireland?

it's the first time that he has really covered Ireland 'cos the sh1t has hit the fan.

the deterioration of the situation has been unbelievably rapid.

Covid has dined out on the "The Paddies does Christmas" between the pre-Christmas luncher groups in the restaurants, same people heading back to families, extended families, throw in some people coming back from abroad.

That's good because the oracle of Delphi was a priestess

hotmail.com

RTE not bothering with Covid tonight, they are too focused on America.

Champagne Sally

Apologies if already posted. I got this from the www.gov.ie website. Here are the exclusions from the construction ban from Friday 6pm


Quote
Construction will be closed with effect from 6pm Friday 8th January except for the construction or development of:

• essential health and related projects including those relevant to preventing, limiting, minimising or slowing the spread of COVID-19

• A limited number of social housing projects, including voids, designated as essential sites by Local Authorities based on set criteria (projects due to be completed in the next six to eight weeks)

• housing adaptation grants where the homeowner is agreeable to adaptions being undertaken in their home

• repair, maintenance and construction of critical transport and utility infrastructure

• education facilities sites designated as essential by Department of Education

• supply and delivery of essential or emergency maintenance and repair services to businesses and places of residence (including electrical, gas, plumbing, glazing and roofing services) on an emergency call-out basis

• certain large construction projects in the exporting / FDI sector based on set criteria

• In relation to private homes that are practically complete and scheduled for habitation by 31 January 2021, including where snagging, and essential remediation work, such as pyrite works is nearing completion, works should continue to enable homeowners access their homes. Heating, water, broadband and electricity installation should also continue to enable homes be occupied.

• Existing tenancy protections mean that a tenant cannot be evicted from their home during the period of the 5km travel restrictions. To enable a limited functioning of the housing and residential tenancy market during this time it has also been agreed that online viewings will be the default approach to viewing property for rental or sale, with a physical viewing only permissible at the point where a tenancy agreement is being entered into or where a contract for sale has been drawn up. This approach balances the need to avoid social interaction with the need to provide a pathway to tenancy and home ownership for those who need it.

Goldengirl

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

You are on spreading misinformation again, eh .
It is already 10 times worse than a bad winter with flu .

Plumbthedepths

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

That's good because the oracle of Delphi was a priestess

He is a nurse though so that could cause the confusion.

Cluedo Monopoly

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

The nursing homes are absolutely key in Q1. Most of the deaths came from the nursing homes last year.
I think the whole country will breathe a sigh of relief when they are all vaccinated.

GreeBo

Tucker tunsel wrote: »

I hear you. Thanks for your reply.

To further illustrate the problem of things doubling, there is an old Indian story about a wager on s game of chess, the loser had to put 1 grain of rice on the first square of the chess board and then double that on the next, etc etc
This seems fine until you realise that that the 64th square has. 18,000,000,000,000,000,000 grains of rice or 210 billion tonnes, requiring rice to be planted on every square inch of the earth's surface, including oceans, twice.

Exponential/geometric growth is great for investments and terrible for disease

GreeBo

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

The bed occupancy rate might be the same but the only difference will be 5 times as many people will die.

Cluedo Monopoly

Goldengirl wrote: »

You are on spreading misinformation again, eh .
It is already 10 times worse than a bad winter with flu .

Can you show us the data on that?

Because Jan 7th 2020 was pretty bad...

https://www.inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13559

For the second day in a row, 760 patients are waiting without beds in Ireland’s hospitals, matching yesterday’s record highest daily figure.

“This extreme overcrowding presents a clear danger to patients and staff alike. It requires immediate political intervention to stabilise our hospitals.

“760 patients on trolleys means the health service is simply not functioning. The longer this level of overcrowding continues, the greater the threats to patient safety.

“We have written to the minister calling for action. We need to grasp the nettle and declare a major incident, cancel electives, and immediately approve recruitment for the worst-hit hospitals.”

Lest we forget how bad out hospitals were before Covid.

November 2019...

https://www.inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13549

“Winter has only just begun and the record is already broken. These statistics are the hallmark of a wildly bureaucratic health service, which is failing staff and patients alike.

“We take no pleasure in having to record these figures for a decade and a half. We know the problem, but we also know the solutions: extra beds in hospitals, safe staffing levels, and more step-down and community care outside of the hospital.

Hospitals should be a place of safety and care – not danger.”

majcos

yermandan wrote: »

Wondering about this. Is it not the case that even if vaccinated we can catch it from and transmit to others? That the vaccination just prevents it impacting us? Apologies if I have that completely wrong

Yes. It is possible even presuming that a person has had two doses and it is more than a week after the second dose. It doesn’t stop you from catching it but evidence from trials on Pfizer vaccine showed 95% efficacy rate in reducing symptoms and severe illness. At the moment there is not enough data available to show/confirm that vaccine will reduce transmission.

Tpcl20

Tpcl20 wrote: »

There's optimism and then there's whatever this nonsense is.

We're not going to have peaked for at least ten days, if even that.

This week, we have late Christmas infections coming with early New Years ones. Next week, we'll have the New Years ones and the ones those infected at Christmas probably went on to infect.

Hopefully in 10 to 14 days from now we might see the numbers starting to slow down if Level 5 is working, but I really don't see it having that huge of an impact because too many sectors are still open and given the high levels of transmission in the community and increased transmissibility of the new strain, I wouldn't be getting out the party hats yet.

https://twitter.com/davidcullinane/status/1346946273929261056?s=20

As I said, we're not going to see a drop in the incidence rate until the end of next week at the earliest.

On a positive note the expectation is that we will see a drop in case numbers and the R Rate at the end of next week. We need to do all we can to make this happen. Important we follow the public health advice. Also important we get clear decisions from Government.

eggy81

Stateofyou wrote: »

What "large project" construction will be allowed go ahead other than housing/hospital/infrastructure? FB / Intel done?

We’re being told we are staying going today. I’m in fb.
The rumour mill is in overdrive so hard to know what the truth will be.

Cluedo Monopoly

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

The nursing homes are absolutely key in Q1. Most of the deaths came from the nursing homes last year.
I think the whole country will breath a sigh of relief when they are all vaccinated.

I've heard that it will be the mid/ end of Feb before they are all done

(from someone who has a relation in one who was told mid-Feb for said relation to be done)

but you'd expect the controls to be a lot better there obviously this time around so hopefully will not have outbreaks there

kilkenny31

GreeBo wrote: »

The bed occupancy rate might be the same but the only difference will be 5 times as many people will die.

Yeah I agree. My point is tho that because we cancelled so much of the rest of the health service the impact in hospitals wont seem a whole lot worse than the flu years. I think overall except for the main hospital numbers the rest if the stats deaths and ICU wont seem much worse than the 1st wave. Which was awful but nowhere near as bad as what was initially predicted.

ginoginelli

Champagne Sally wrote: »

Apologies if already posted. I got this from the www.gov.ie website. Here are the exclusions from the construction ban from Friday 6pm


Quote
Construction will be closed with effect from 6pm Friday 8th January except for the construction or development of:

• essential health and related projects including those relevant to preventing, limiting, minimising or slowing the spread of COVID-19

• A limited number of social housing projects, including voids, designated as essential sites by Local Authorities based on set criteria (projects due to be completed in the next six to eight weeks)

• housing adaptation grants where the homeowner is agreeable to adaptions being undertaken in their home

• repair, maintenance and construction of critical transport and utility infrastructure

• education facilities sites designated as essential by Department of Education

• supply and delivery of essential or emergency maintenance and repair services to businesses and places of residence (including electrical, gas, plumbing, glazing and roofing services) on an emergency call-out basis

• certain large construction projects in the exporting / FDI sector based on set criteria

• In relation to private homes that are practically complete and scheduled for habitation by 31 January 2021, including where snagging, and essential remediation work, such as pyrite works is nearing completion, works should continue to enable homeowners access their homes. Heating, water, broadband and electricity installation should also continue to enable homes be occupied.

• Existing tenancy protections mean that a tenant cannot be evicted from their home during the period of the 5km travel restrictions. To enable a limited functioning of the housing and residential tenancy market during this time it has also been agreed that online viewings will be the default approach to viewing property for rental or sale, with a physical viewing only permissible at the point where a tenancy agreement is being entered into or where a contract for sale has been drawn up. This approach balances the need to avoid social interaction with the need to provide a pathway to tenancy and home ownership for those who need it.

So basically all homes? What a joke. The smaller house projects are nearly the worst for covid compliance. They should have stopped them for a few weeks at least.

majcos

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

Cancellations of elective procedures happen every year in Winter. Our health system is always on the brink of being overrun. Hospital occupancy rate in Ireland in a ‘normal’ year is far higher than average OECD figure.

Happydays2020

hotmail.com wrote: »

RTE not bothering with Covid tonight, they are too focused on America.

So in the middle of a pandemic the national broadcaster is more interested in another country. I feel for George Lee.

Solar2021

glasso wrote: »

I've heard that it will be the mid/ end of Feb before they are all done

(from someone who has a relation in one who was told mid-Feb for said relation to be done)

but you'd expect the controls to be a lot better there obviously this time around so hopefully will not have outbreaks there

Could be too late by then, typical of us Irish, can't do anything right

Virus is everywhere

Takes a few weeks for vaccines to prime the body

Nursing home in Canada I believe vaccinated 236 residents, 102 got infected within 2 weeks as vaccines didn't have enough time to work

We are looking at similar situation

WhiteMemento9

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think it will be fairly intense on the general wards. But probably like a bad winter with the flu. We do generally have a trolley crisis. The only difference will be that we have cancelled a lot of elective and outpatient procedures to cope which would never happen in a normal year. I think deaths may get close to first wave but not as bad because I think the nursing homes wont be as bad as the last time.

Anyone who makes a comparison to the Flu should get an instant ban imo..

Coronavirus has killed more Americans in 9 months than the flu has in the last 10 years combined.

Sierra Oscar

hotmail.com wrote: »

RTE not bothering with Covid tonight, they are too focused on America.

It was literally the first item on the Nine News with live takes from multiple correspondents. It was the second item two.

Endintheclowns

Jesus Covid been compared to the flu. Ive heard it all now

Happydays2020

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Anyone who makes a comparison to the Flu should get an instant ban imo..

Coronavirus has killed more Americans in 9 months than the flu has in the last 10 years combined.

But they are counted differently.