Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

penny piper

Mrsmum wrote: »

My kids are only back since yesterday and already I have notifications of three teachers out sick for the week. Even remote teaching isn't a certainity.

I think it's reasonable to expect this...considering the serious of this pandemic...
Hence, why I see it impossible for schools to be expected to go back after 31st January.
Teachers are doing their best like everyone...

khalessi

penny piper wrote: »

I think it's reasonable to expect this...considering the serious of this pandemic...
Hence, why I see it impossible for schools to be expected to go back after 31st January.
Teachers are doing their best like everyone...

Yeah, it has been mentioned to us to be aware of children not completing work due to illness of themselves or family. Also that staff might be sick too.

km79

Mrsmum wrote: »

My kids are only back since yesterday and already I have notifications of three teachers out sick for the week. Even remote teaching isn't a certainity.

Ask i said last night the number of cases in school communities is far far far higher than before Xmas
I honestly think if any classroom teaching had returned even for L Certs the health system would be now broken
Schools won’t reopen fully in two weeks time
It’s just not going to be safe to do so

SAMTALK

Locotastic wrote: »

Close contacts are still being told to isolate for 14 days, so once the majority of them do as they should then it should still reduce the transmission the same way a positive test would have.

Yes case numbers will be less than accurate but this month is a mess anyway with reporting.

Once the cases and capacity stabilise they will have contact tracing back again, there will be some better days to come very soon I think.

Some posters thinking it will be April before schools open! Sure they'd be nearly closed longer than last time in that case and that won't be allowed to happen again.

This is going to be a big problem in trying to get virus under control

where I work there are a few close contacts, but because of lack of testing they are still attending work !
Some have had 1 test (neg) and told they couldnt get a 2nd so back to work they come.. Ridiculous carry on.

This seems to be an issue across many business

rob316

km79 wrote: »

Ask i said last night the number of cases in school communities is far far far higher than before Xmas
I honestly think if any classroom teaching had returned even for L Certs the health system would be now broken
Schools won’t reopen fully in two weeks time
It’s just not going to be safe to do so

1st Feb is 20 days from now, it's along time in this pandemic, 20 days ago we had 1025 cases. Its not inconceivable to have similar or less numbers by then.
Special schools should absolutely open if cases numbers are around that by then.

penny piper

rob316 wrote: »

1st Feb is 20 days from now, it's along time in this pandemic, 20 days ago we had 1025 cases. Its not inconceivable to have similar or less numbers by then.
Special schools should absolutely open if cases numbers are around that by then.

No it's not inconceivable to see numbers go down considering we are under strict lockdown rules....but it's the problem of how the country will open up again without cases skyrocketing ....Opening up too soon without thought (as last time) will cause serious problems.
Teachers/students must be protected at all costs....
Special schools should only re open when it's deemed safe for everyone who attends/works in one...You have to think of others....

combat14

Lillyfae wrote: »

Lockdown here has been extended until the 9th of February. Schools/ daycare to continue as they have been for exam classes, practical classes, vulnerable children (including SEN) and the children of essential workers. The plan is to reopen schools fully on the 25th of January, but only if the numbers allow. They're still waiting for the consequences of an outbreak of the UK variant in a town close to Rotterdam, as well as evidence that it's more contagious in children, and they plan to start mass testing in a couple of schools there as a pilot when they eventually do go back.

I'm feeling like we might be out of the woods here between the numbers dropping and the vaccination programme accelerating. I'll be booking my flights to Ireland as soon as I can, it's now been almost a year and a half since I've seen my family and friends. Someone asked me recently why I haven't been back in so long, seems a lot of people are not sticking to travel advice at all. Goes to show you can't trust people to just do the right thing when asked, it has to be enforced.

46 deaths here yesterday and told today numbers to rise

unfortunately not out of woods yet

km79

rob316 wrote: »

1st Feb is 20 days from now, it's along time in this pandemic, 20 days ago we had 1025 cases. Its not inconceivable to have similar or less numbers by then.
Special schools should absolutely open if cases numbers are around that by then.

If numbers are that AND contact tracing AND testing is back to normal
If not the only numbers that will matter are hospital numbers

mcsean2163

penny piper wrote: »

No it's not inconceivable to see numbers go down considering we are under strict lockdown rules....but it's the problem of how the country will open up again without cases skyrocketing ....Opening up too soon without thought (as last time) will cause serious problems.
Teachers/students must be protected at all costs....
Special schools should only re open when it's deemed safe for everyone who attends/works in one...You have to think of others....

Teachers/students must be protected at all costs

So at the cost of everyone who is not a teacher/ student? Life support should be removed on babies before teachers? What are you trying to say?

Smacruairi

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Teachers/students must be protected at all costs

So at the cost of everyone who is not a teacher/ student? Life support should be removed on babies before teachers? What are you trying to say?

Ah jaysus man.you know what the poster was trying to say.

wirelessdude01

SAMTALK wrote: »

This is going to be a big problem in trying to get virus under control

where I work there are a few close contacts, but because of lack of testing they are still attending work !
Some have had 1 test (neg) and told they couldnt get a 2nd so back to work they come.. Ridiculous carry on.

This seems to be an issue across many business

People being told by employers and managers that they have to come back after the negative test which can be around day 5. Still leaves at least a week where they are meant to be isolating and most definitely at work.

Incidentally, some of the govt departments are the worst offenders from what I have heard.

wirelessdude01

rob316 wrote: »

1st Feb is 20 days from now, it's along time in this pandemic, 20 days ago we had 1025 cases. Its not inconceivable to have similar or less numbers by then.
Special schools should absolutely open if cases numbers are around that by then.

Not a hope in hell we are near that number then.

MerlinSouthDub

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Not a hope in hell we are near that number then.

Why do you say that? Looks like we've fallen from 6000 cases a day last week to 3000 a day now. Keep going as we are going and we'll be under 1000 by end of the month. Hospitals and ICU are going to be issue, I'd say.

Smacruairi

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Why do you say that? Looks like we've fallen from 6000 cases a day last week to 3000 a day now. Keep going as we are going and we'll be under 1000 by end of the month. Hospitals and ICU are going to be issue, I'd say.

Are they testing close contacts? Could that be the reason they have dropped?

MerlinSouthDub

Smacruairi wrote: »

Are they testing close contacts? Could that be the reason they have dropped?

So, on average people have 3 close contacts and 10 to 15% of close contacts get a positive test. For, say, 3000 cases, that's 9000 *15% = 1350 positive cases. At least 60% of those would have symptoms and would get tested anyway. So, that means for every 3000 cases, we could be missing 40% of 1350 = 540 further cases that would be picked up through contact testing. So, yes , some cases being missed but not thousands. I'd expect close contact testing to be reintroduced very soon, there should be test capacity to do it in the coming days

jimmytwotimes 2013

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Teachers/students must be protected at all costs

So at the cost of everyone who is not a teacher/ student? Life support should be removed on babies before teachers? What are you trying to say?

The modern rush to be offended

Smacruairi

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

So, on average people have 3 close contacts and 10 to 15% of close contacts get a positive test. For, say, 3000 cases, that's 9000 *15% = 1350 positive cases. At least 60% of those would have symptoms and would get tested anyway. So, that means for every 3000 cases, we could be missing 40% of 1350 = 540 further cases that would be picked up through contact testing. So, yes , some cases being missed but not thousands. I'd expect close contact testing to be reintroduced very soon, there should be test capacity to do it in the coming days

I don't know the accuracy of your maths, looks good to me. But you're saying 540 could be the ones being missed.... 540 was still enough to put us on lockdown alone!

mcsean2163

Smacruairi wrote: »

Ah jaysus man.you know what the poster was trying to say.

I do indeed. I know my wife is frontline healthcare but we're not too bad as we'll still have a salary if I'm fired for having to take time off, assuming my wife doesn't die from covid19.

I know other other families with two doctors or a nurse and a doctor. My heart goes out to them as they've been abandoned by the educational system and teachers. Nothing for frontline staff, nothing for special needs. Teachers first.

Smacruairi

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I do indeed. I know my wife is frontline healthcare but we're not too bad as we'll still have a salary if I'm fired for having to take time off, assuming my wife doesn't die from covid19.

I know other other families with two doctors or a nurse and a doctor. My heart goes out to them as they've been abandoned by the educational system and teachers. Nothing for frontline staff, nothing for special needs. Teachers before everyone else.

That's your own interpretation, everyone else understood what the poster actually meant.

penny piper

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Teachers/students must be protected at all costs

So at the cost of everyone who is not a teacher/ student? Life support should be removed on babies before teachers? What are you trying to say?

I'm sorry I haven't a clue what you are trying to say....perhaps if you read my post again ....

MerlinSouthDub

Smacruairi wrote: »

I don't know the accuracy of your maths, looks good to me. But you're saying 540 could be the ones being missed.... 540 was still enough to put us on lockdown alone!

The numbers will fall in line with case numbers. If we get down to 1000 cases a day, we'd be missing less than 200 (and we will certainly have restarted close contact testing at that stage).

But, anyway, it is early days. Hopefully we continue progressing at the current rate and then we'll be in better shape by the end of January. Even if we are at, say, 1000 cases a day at that stage, personally I would leave us in lockdown until mid February and drive numbers down to lower levels.

JimmyVik

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

So, on average people have 3 close contacts and 10 to 15% of close contacts get a positive test. For, say, 3000 cases, that's 9000 *15% = 1350 positive cases. At least 60% of those would have symptoms and would get tested anyway. So, that means for every 3000 cases, we could be missing 40% of 1350 = 540 further cases that would be picked up through contact testing. So, yes , some cases being missed but not thousands. I'd expect close contact testing to be reintroduced very soon, there should be test capacity to do it in the coming days

Would that not need to be multiplied out every day?
Sort of like a covid compound interest

mcsean2163

penny piper wrote: »

I'm sorry I haven't a clue what you are trying to say....perhaps if you read my post again ....

Teachers/students must be protected at all costs....
Special schools should only re open when it's deemed safe for everyone who attends/works in one...You have to think of others....

Do you think it's safe to work in a hospital? The amount contracting covid19 is appalling and to add insult to injury there is no educational/ school support for frontline healthcare workers that are working to save lives

What do you not understand? The troops in the trenches have been abandoned by those who consider themselves more important.

JimmyVik

penny piper wrote: »

No it's not inconceivable to see numbers go down considering we are under strict lockdown rules....but it's the problem of how the country will open up again without cases skyrocketing ....Opening up too soon without thought (as last time) will cause serious problems.
Teachers/students must be protected at all costs....
Special schools should only re open when it's deemed safe for everyone who attends/works in one...You have to think of others....

I know loads of people meeting up to let the kids play with each other now.
They have been trained since september that it is safe for kids to play together, so they see no harm in it.
The virus numbers are not going to go down fast.

Mrsmum

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Do you think it's safe to work in a hospital? The amount contracting covid19 is appalling and to add insult to injury there is no educational/ school support for frontline healthcare workers that are working to save lives

What do you not understand? The troops in the trenches have been abandoned by those who consider themselves more important.

There is no doubt it is very difficult. Next door to me live two nurses and they seem to be on alternative 12 hour shifts, one goes out when the other gets home. They are not Irish so no family backup. They have four kids and the baby is not yet walking. Their son who is in first year is minding his siblings while the night duty parent is trying to catch a few hours sleep and I can't imagine how those children are doing any remote learning. The only thing is though if the schools were back in any form, would these nurses have more cases to deal with ?

Locotastic

7000+ HSE staff absent, now close contacts are being recalled to work following a negative test.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-close-contacts-staff-5323692-Jan2021/

Hope they get hospitals to a manageble position.

wirelessdude01

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Do you think it's safe to work in a hospital? The amount contracting covid19 is appalling and to add insult to injury there is no educational/ school support for frontline healthcare workers that are working to save lives

What do you not understand? The troops in the trenches have been abandoned by those who consider themselves more important.

Think you have to be referring to the govt.

wirelessdude01

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know loads of people meeting up to let the kids play with each other now.
They have been trained since september that it is safe for kids to play together, so they see no harm in it.
The virus numbers are not going to go down fast.

Messaging that 'schools are safe' has been translated by the masses to mean that children don't transmit the virus. My friend is a public health nurse. They have just two nurses left in their area. Rest are all out as either covid positive or as close contacts.

wirelessdude01

Locotastic wrote: »

7000+ HSE staff absent, now close contacts are being recalled to work following a negative test.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-close-contacts-staff-5323692-Jan2021/

Hope they get hospitals to a manageble position.

That decision could possibly lead to mass outbreaks in hospitals. Total and utter sh!tshow.

penny piper

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Do you think it's safe to work in a hospital? The amount contracting covid19 is appalling and to add insult to injury there is no educational/ school support for frontline healthcare workers that are working to save lives

What do you not understand? The troops in the trenches have been abandoned by those who consider themselves more important.

If you think the amount of people contracting coronavirus is so appalling why would you ever think it's safe for children/teachers to back to school?
Don't you think if you send children back to school in a situation like this the hse will have more to deal with? Cases are now involving all ages now young and old..or didn't you know that?
Less people moving around the better...I'm a mother of two young secondary teachers....I'm concerned for them...

You have edited your post ...re read my original post....I think you have a problem with understanding ...