Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Look your argument doesn't even work with the numbers I gave originally.

As I said, in a week in November, with a similar national incidence level to today, with the same number of facilities but more kids tested (536 compared to 307), 9 kids tested positive.

In the last week in February it was 50.

The results of mass testing childcare facilities have been consistently low from November to January, and consistently high since then. It's not just the positivity rate, the actual number of infected kids is much, much higher.

I don't see how this can be explained away by essential workers.

Its apples and oranges Tony.

Latest report:


Report from November:

Lillyfae

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Eh, yeah and that's why I said the actual numbers are much, much higher right now. Not just the percentages.
For your argument to work at all, essential workers would have had to have removed their kids from childcare for Nov and Dec. And they didn't.

Look, it was a reasonable point that you made, but we've explored it and found it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Lets move on.

Numbers were lower all round in November and December.

I'm not arguing. I'm not even trying to be right. I'm just applying logic to the evidence you presented- you said you put context to it, but you omitted completely the most fundamental context. Even more, as raind said the example you gave wasn't as a result of mass testing, it was as a result of contact tracing which is a different kettle of fish altogether

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be a surprise. There is a very low level of infection in hospital workers now due to the impact of the vaccine.

The reason the positivity rate is so high is right there in the report however - its testing as a result of close contact tracing. The headline says mass testing which is misleading. Nationwide cases have also fallen by 50% since this testing was completed

Well that would explain it to an extent, but how do you know?

I mean this whole report is heavily labelled "mass testing". It's called the "Weekly COVID-19 Schools Mass Testing Report".
It would be pretty awful of the HSE to put out something so misleading and alarming, but not entirely surprising.

Even if you're right though, it doesn't explain why it was so much higher in late Feb than early Nov. Unless I'm missing something, which is always a concern.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

Its apples and oranges Tony.

Thanks raind. Well spotted.

The 16% figure still sounds a bit concerning to me, but it was the contrast between Nov and Feb that I found particularly alarming. I feel better. Thanks again.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well that would explain it to an extent, but how do you know?

I mean this whole report is heavily labelled "mass testing". It's called the "Weekly COVID-19 Schools Mass Testing Report".
It would be pretty awful of the HSE to put out something so misleading and alarming, but not entirely surprising.

Even if you're right though, it doesn't explain why it was so much higher in late Feb than early Nov. Unless I'm missing something, which is always a concern.

In November it was mass testing. Its seems that they are currently not completing mass random testing in Childcare facilities, or a least not up to last week, but continuing to to produce the report on testing in schools based on the contact tracing testing that is ongoing. Its clearly called out at multiple points in the report that its contact tracing testing so dont see the issue given that it is providing some data.

Lillyfae

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well that would explain it to an extent, but how do you know?

I mean this whole report is heavily labelled "mass testing". It's called the "Weekly COVID-19 Schools Mass Testing Report".
It would be pretty awful of the HSE to put out something so misleading and alarming, but not entirely surprising.

Even if you're right though, it doesn't explain why it was so much higher in late Feb than early Nov. Unless I'm missing something, which is always a concern.

You are missing something. You're missing the ability to avoid confirmation bias.

2 thirds of frontline healthcare staff have received 1 vaccine. 1 third of frontline healthcare staff have received 2 and 1 third of frontline healthcare staff have received none at all. The efficacy of all vaccines after 1 dose and 2 doses is not yet fully known, and it is known that vaccines do not fully eliminate risk of catching COVID-19, just that it decreases the damage or the burden of disease.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Thanks raind. Well spotted.

The 16% figure still sounds a bit concerning to me, but it was the contrast between Nov and Feb that I found particularly alarming. I feel better. Thanks again.

From what I can see the positive rate in childcare has been running at double that in other schools throughout. Special education for last week was at 3.4% which would be very low given it was close contact testing, but only represents one case from 41 test so would have a high margin of error.

On a side note the report goes with the usual <5 cases instead of the actual number so inferences on specific places cant be drawn due to the low number of cases, however also states there was 41 tests and 40 not detected.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

From what I can see the positive rate in childcare has been running at double that in other schools throughout. Special education for last week was at 3.4% which would be very low given it was close contact testing, but only represents one case from 41 test so would have a high margin of error.

On a side note the report goes with the usual <5 cases instead of the actual number so inferences on specific places cant be drawn due to the low number of cases, however also states there was 41 tests and 40 not detected.

It looks like it was perhaps only one special needs school that was tested in week 8.

The previous week looks similar, perhaps just one special school, but from 26 kids tested they found 5 cases. 19.2%

Again obviously this is not mass testing as was done in the past, but you'd have to look at these numbers and be a little concerned that there's a fair degree of transmission occurring in these facilities.

Lillyfae

Lillyfae wrote: »

You are missing something. You're missing the ability to avoid confirmation bias.

2 thirds of frontline healthcare staff have received 1 vaccine. 1 third of frontline healthcare staff have received 2 and 1 third of frontline healthcare staff have received none at all. The efficacy of all vaccines after 1 dose and 2 doses is not yet fully known, and it is known that vaccines do not fully eliminate risk of catching COVID-19, just that it decreases the damage or the burden of disease.

The proportion of weekly cases in healthcare workers has fallen by more than 50%

Lillyfae

TonyMaloney wrote: »

It looks like it was perhaps only one special needs school that was tested in week 8.

The previous week looks similar, perhaps just one special school, but from 26 kids tested they found 5 cases. 19.2%

Again obviously this is not mass testing as was done in the past, but you'd have to look at these numbers and be a little concerned that there's a fair degree of transmission occurring in these facilities.

Hang on, which week was the week that these children went back? Was that week 7 or week 8?

Lillyfae

Deleted User wrote: »

The proportion of weekly cases in healthcare workers has fallen by more than 50%

It's great news. Purely based on numbers though you would need to be mass testing their children too to see what their risk was and if it has fallen proportionally. Which would be pointless :pac:

It's great the children are back and that the risk to everyone is decreasing. Everything opening up should always begin with schools because that should be the priority in society. That's my only point.

hesaidshesaid

Important to note that before Christmas, the terms ‘mass testing’ and ‘close contact’ had completely different (more limited) definitions in school settings than they did in any other area of society.

Some assurances have been given that the definition of these terms in school settings will now align with that understood by society, but the next few weeks will reveal whether (a) that is actually true and (b) whether we have capacity to mass test every class in which a positive case is identified.

zeebre12

I presume all primary will now be back on the 15th. When are they planning on announcing this?

highland212

zeebre12 wrote: »

I presume all primary will now be back on the 15th. When are they planning on announcing this?

I'd imagine next Wednesday or Thursday. There hasn't been any mention of a "review" happening. There is zero chance of all primary not returning on the 15th, in my opinion.

wirelessdude01

zeebre12 wrote: »

I presume all primary will now be back on the 15th. When are they planning on announcing this?

Was chatting to my principal about this during th week and they said there are two very distinct camps, 1. The group who thinks the 15th is set in stone no matter what the numbers are saying and 2. Those who think that it will be changed to the 22nd at a very late stage.

Realistically parents need to know by Wednesday morning the latest.

Stateofyou

As parents we are very much on the fence as to if we will send our kids back on the 15th. We're keeping an eye on things, and will probably send an email to the principal on Monday regarding classroom ventilation and whether we will know if there's a positive case in the class. I'll ask if we'll be able to avail of any remote support.
No masks, poor ventilation, not being informed if there's a case in the class and local cases will all factor into our decision.
Since vaccination levels are so low, this will not factor in.

wirelessdude01

Stateofyou wrote: »

As parents we are very much on the fence as to if we will send our kids back on the 15th. We're keeping an eye on things, and will probably send an email to the principal on Monday regarding classroom ventilation and whether we will know if there's a positive case in the class. I'll ask if we'll be able to avail of any remote support.
No masks, poor ventilation, not being informed if there's a case in the class and local cases will all factor into our decision.
Since vaccination levels are so low, this will not factor in.

So what answer are you looking for with regards to ventilation?

JPup

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Was chatting to my principal about this during th week and they said there are two very distinct camps, 1. The group who thinks the 15th is set in stone no matter what the numbers are saying and 2. Those who think that it will be changed to the 22nd at a very late stage.

Realistically parents need to know by Wednesday morning the latest.

Why would it be pushed back to the 22nd? The number of new cases has continued to fall over the course of the week. The number vaccinated grows by the day. I don't see any set back that would justify a change in the current plan.

km79

Stateofyou wrote: »

As parents we are very much on the fence as to if we will send our kids back on the 15th. We're keeping an eye on things, and will probably send an email to the principal on Monday regarding classroom ventilation and whether we will know if there's a positive case in the class. I'll ask if we'll be able to avail of any remote support.
No masks, poor ventilation, not being informed if there's a case in the class and local cases will all factor into our decision.
Since vaccination levels are so low, this will not factor in.

I can tell you right now you will not be able to avail of any remote support . If the school is open you your child’s class the teacher will be in the school teaching during working hours .
The guidance is unequivocal in that. If you choose to keep your child at home there will be no remote support .

Stateofyou

km79 wrote: »

I can tell you right now you will not be able to avail of any remote support . If the school is open you your child’s class the teacher will be in the school teaching during working hours .
The guidance is unequivocal in that. If you choose to keep your child at home there will be no remote support .

But if they became ill or needed to quarantine, they would be? SO where do those extra minutes of support magically come from then?

Stateofyou

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

So what answer are you looking for with regards to ventilation?

Windows open all day. Not just when they aren't in the room. And as I said months before, fully open windows being the policy in our school ("windows will be used to their fullest..") was not happening in reality. Many a time was that one of us drove by the school during school hours (rain or shine) and the windows were closed. When it was raised with the teacher, they were left open for a time until they seemed to be forgotten about again. Wont be having that now with the new variant.

penny piper

Stateofyou wrote: »

Windows open all day. Not just when they aren't in the room. And as I said months before, fully open windows being the policy in our school ("windows will be used to their fullest..") was not happening in reality. Many a time was that one of us drove by the school during school hours (rain or shine) and the windows were closed. When it was raised with the teacher, they were left open for a time until they seemed to be forgotten about again. Wont be having that now with the new variant.

That's still happening in secondary schools regarding ventilation ....where a teacher can go into a room and the windows have been closed by someone ....you are lucky that atleast your school seems to have windows to open... and not just relying on a door to open....

wirelessdude01

Stateofyou wrote: »

Windows open all day. Not just when they aren't in the room. And as I said months before, fully open windows being the policy in our school ("windows will be used to their fullest..") was not happening in reality. Many a time was that one of us drove by the school during school hours (rain or shine) and the windows were closed. When it was raised with the teacher, they were left open for a time until they seemed to be forgotten about again. Wont be having that now with the new variant.

Fully open in my room is about a one inch gap!!

byhookorbycrook

zeebre12 wrote: »

I presume all primary will now be back on the 15th. When are they planning on announcing this?

Welcome to the world of media knowing before schools do and the Friday post 6pm circular.
You will , literally know what’s happening from the media before schools hear anything.

Stateofyou

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Fully open in my room is about a one inch gap!!

Yikes....

Stateofyou

penny piper wrote: »

That's still happening in secondary schools regarding ventilation ....where a teacher can go into a room and the windows have been closed by someone ....you are lucky that atleast your school seems to have windows to open... and not just relying on a door to open....

Yeah, not sure how "lucky" it is when it may be the reason our kids don't go back
I can't believe this is the way it is.

byhookorbycrook

Stateofyou wrote: »

But if they became ill or needed to quarantine, they would be? SO where do those extra minutes of support magically come from then?

Apparently, according to Norma from all those spare staff not teaching classes? Y’know, the ones we store in presses.

Stateofyou

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

Apparently, according to Norma from all those spare staff not teaching classes? Y’know, the ones we store in presses.

Exactly.... this whole plan is a shít show farce and NF should be ashamed of the piss poor job being done.

byhookorbycrook

Stateofyou wrote: »

Windows open all day. Not just when they aren't in the room. And as I said months before, fully open windows being the policy in our school ("windows will be used to their fullest..") was not happening in reality. Many a time was that one of us drove by the school during school hours (rain or shine) and the windows were closed. When it was raised with the teacher, they were left open for a time until they seemed to be forgotten about again. Wont be having that now with the new variant.

And then, we have parents complaining that the windows are open. To be fair , the children closest are probably really frozen , but with the infamous “pods” they are stuck there for weeks.

byhookorbycrook

Stateofyou wrote: »

Exactly.... this whole plan is a shít show farce and NF should be ashamed of the piss poor job being done.

And herself and Josepha who apparently on the side of children with additional needs are quite happy to use the AEN teachers to sub. for mainstream classes.