Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

big syke

JDD wrote: »

Here's the thing I can't understand. Say a kid in my daughter's class is asymptomatic and passes covid to my daughter. Call that Day 1. My daughter has it festering in her system, becomes infectious, and passes it to everyone else in the house. Call that Day 5. Another five days pass and I start to get symptoms. I'm hoping it's just a cold, but three days after symptoms start I register for a test. Day 8. HSE give me an appointment for the next day, and I get the results the day after. Day 10. Two days later the HSE get around to contacting me again for my close contacts, which are my family, and organise to have them tested the next day too. Day 13. My daughter comes back positive on Day 14.

Nobody will know whether she passed it to me or I passed it to her. So they could say that she got infected because of a household outbreak, since I am Patient No.1.

Two days later again the HSE contact the school and organise for my daughter's pod to be tested. Day 18 before they get their tests back. The girl that gave covid to my daughter likely had it for at least five days before she gave it to my daughter, so this is Day 23 for her. She may come back negative. Or, if she's not on my daughter's pod, she may not be tested at all. Or, if she gave it to her family, she's probably been tested already and is including in that household outbreak, rather than classifying it a school outbreak.

So forgive me if I take the "oh there's been no outbreaks in schools, but absolutely weirdly and not connected at all to the school return, there has been a doubling of outbreaks within the home" with a pinch of salt.

I think it is all about the phrasing.

A school outbreak to me is an infected child passing it on to other kids in the school.

So in a 30 person class 1 child passing it on to say 10 kids.

This is a school outbreak.

I view it like the meat factories. ABP Bandon in January there were 66 cases in an outbrek in the factory. You dont see cases as high as this in school.

JDD

big syke wrote: »

I think it is all about the phrasing.

A school outbreak to me is an infected child passing it on to other kids in the school.

So in a 30 person class 1 child passing it on to say 10 kids.

This is a school outbreak.

I view it like the meat factories. ABP Bandon in January there were 66 cases in an outbrek in the factory. You dont see cases as high as this in school.

I take your point, but it's kind of apples and oranges. The meat factory workers mostly all live together, so they're outbreaks are bound to be higher in volume. Also, they're adults, so more likely to show symptoms and therefore it's easier to trace the infection back to Patient 1. When it's kids, who spend half their school year coughing and sneezing, and also have such a high rate of asymptomatic infection, it's much harder to trace it back to the school and it's likely many of the infections are being classified as household outbreaks.

I also believe an "outbreak" should be classified as say, more than five other people infected, but that's not the way the HSE works. If I live only with my boyfriend, and infect him and him only, that's a household outbreak.

It's another bugbear I have with the HSE stats. Everytime they say "oh 90% of infections are now from private home outbreaks, we need to make sure we're sticking to the rules" I want to scream. If I catch covid in the supermarket, I am GUARANTEED to infect my husband and children, and I am sticking to the rules!! That's a private home outbreak! 90% of infections occurring in private home does not mean people from different households are mixing in houses and spreading it to each other. It means one person got it from somewhere and infected their family, which is unavoidable. How did it get into the bloody home is what I want to know!

Aaaaand breathe.

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0310/1203047-coronavirus-ireland/

New figures show that despite a significant rise in outbreaks of Covid-19 last week, no outbreaks were reported in schools last week, following the return of around 32,000 pupils on 1 March.

This included more than 260,000 junior primary school children, as well as 60,000 Leaving Certificate students.

Figures from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre show that there were 431 outbreaks reported in the week to last Saturday, compared with 367 the previous week.

The biggest rise was in private house/family outbreaks, with 259 were reported, compared with 128 the previous week. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Some people may have heard of the concept of "incubation period". None of the household outbreaks recorded last week started last week

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Some people may have heard of the concept of "incubation period". None of the household outbreaks recorded last week started last week

They could have contracted the virus the first week the schools went back- 2 weeks ago could they not?

the corpo

Stephen Donnelly on Pat Kenny earlier, when queried on how cases take 7-10 days to present, said NPHET haven't actually met to review the reopening yet... They will tomorrow and he will sit down with Ronan Glynn tomorrow afternoon to discuss.

I don't think there's a chance in hell the Department won't open the schools on Monday, but it's mad to see they're ploughing on regardless.

wirelessdude01

the corpo wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly on Pat Kenny earlier, when queried on how cases take 7-10 days to present, said NPHET haven't actually met to review the reopening yet... They will tomorrow and he will sit down with Ronan Glynn tomorrow afternoon to discuss.

I don't think there's a chance in hell the Department won't open the schools on Monday, but it's mad to see they're ploughing on regardless.

Schools, parents and students were all told on Monday that they are back on the 15th. Amazing that Donnelly admitted that the review hasn't occurred as he generally is quite skilled at talking but not answering what he was actually asked.

KrustyUCC

Donnelly skilled at talking lol

He was on about negotiations taking place with unions that had concluded earlier in the day on Claire Byrne throwing another minister under the bus

The man is clueless

amacca

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Donnelly skilled at talking lol

He was on about negotiations taking place with unions that had concluded earlier in the day on Claire Byrne throwing another minister under the bus

The man is clueless

would you accept good at meaningless waffle

guff, prattle, jibber jabber, bunkum, twaddle ...for the purposes of filling airtime and deflecting attention etc etc

I take your point however:D


I suppose we could agree hes more inclined to opening his mouth than shutting it and a steady stream of "stuff" comes out......the quality or meaning of which is debatable.

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

They could have contracted the virus the first week the schools went back- 2 weeks ago could they not?

9 days ago, and this report was up to the 6th - ie only those tested to the 5th, 4 days after schools returned, and somehow they had incubated the virus and pass it on to someone else who incubated and were tested with result returned by saturday

Hurrache

JDD wrote: »

Two days later again the HSE contact the school and organise for my daughter's pod to be tested. Day 18 before they get their tests back. The girl that gave covid to my daughter likely had it for at least five days before she gave it to my daughter, so this is Day 23 for her. She may come back negative. Or, if she's not on my daughter's pod, she may not be tested at all. Or, if she gave it to her family, she's probably been tested already and is including in that household outbreak, rather than classifying it a school outbreak.

So forgive me if I take the "oh there's been no outbreaks in schools, but absolutely weirdly and not connected at all to the school return, there has been a doubling of outbreaks within the home" with a pinch of salt.

On the whole pod thing, when there's a case in a class the whole class is designated as close contacts and get tested, and the class is cancelled for everyone.

Warbeastrior

JDD wrote:

Here's the thing I can't understand. Say a kid in my daughter's class is asymptomatic and passes covid to my daughter. Call that Day 1. My daughter has it festering in her system, becomes infectious, and passes it to everyone else in the house. Call that Day 5. Another five days pass and I start to get symptoms. I'm hoping it's just a cold, but three days after symptoms start I register for a test. Day 8. HSE give me an appointment for the next day, and I get the results the day after. Day 10. Two days later the HSE get around to contacting me again for my close contacts, which are my family, and organise to have them tested the next day too. Day 13. My daughter comes back positive on Day 14.

Nobody will know whether she passed it to me or I passed it to her. So they could say that she got infected because of a household outbreak, since I am Patient No.1.

Two days later again the HSE contact the school and organise for my daughter's pod to be tested. Day 18 before they get their tests back. The girl that gave covid to my daughter likely had it for at least five days before she gave it to my daughter, so this is Day 23 for her. She may come back negative. Or, if she's not on my daughter's pod, she may not be tested at all. Or, if she gave it to her family, she's probably been tested already and is including in that household outbreak, rather than classifying it a school outbreak.

So forgive me if I take the "oh there's been no outbreaks in schools, but absolutely weirdly and not connected at all to the school return, there has been a doubling of outbreaks within the home" with a pinch of salt.

Exactly. Its worth remembering that the narrative that "schools are safe" is what the government want to peddle regardless.

Can easily see them twisting things.

political analyst

Warbeastrior wrote: »

Exactly. Its worth remembering that the narrative that "schools are safe" is what the government want to peddle regardless.

Can easily see them twisting things.

If closing the schools had achieved a significant reduction of the numbers of cases then the lockdown would've been lifted last month.

KerryConnor

I'd actually be reassured by figures on facebook page if I was confident it was being fully monitored and reported. But the way they underreport school cases has led to school staff not trusting what they say. No school so far has actually being mass tested which is crazy - I saw someone mention meat factories above, they have serial testing and the positive results from meat factories in August were overwhelmingly asymptomatic if i remember rightly. I d be concerned there's more people in schools asymptomatic than we realise.
For example , two teachers I know who tested positive believe they got it in the classroom as they hadn't been anywhere else.
Both teachers passed covid to their own families and extended families But these teachers nor none of the people they passed it onto showed up in school numbers but rather as community/family transmission - teachers were told the only way to be reported in school's figures is if you were tested as a close contact.
That's just two anecdote s that make me distrust the official line.
I think we need to return and am looking forward to it ... but feel let down by the lack of support for schools. No mass testing, different definition of close contact, confirmed cases being put in the wrong category.
Our of curiosity -is every person who works in healthcare or construction who contracts covid categorised as healthcare or construction? or do they need to be a close contact of a colleague or patient to be categorised as such?

Hurrache

KerryConnor wrote: »

No school so far has actually being mass tested which is crazy

Full classes are in which there was a positive case.

KerryConnor

That's not mass testing - it's testing of close contacts.

For some reason they call it mass testing.

Mass testing is testing everyone in a school, even on a random basis , regardless of whether there has been a case or not.

Hurrache wrote: »

Full classes are in which there was a positive case.

JP100

Highly highly convenient for NPHET to rush out and say they was no outbreaks in schools at all a mere 4 or 5 days after schools have returned on a wider basis. The schools simply haven't been back long enough to establish anything substantial yet either way and of course NPHET know that but it suits the narrative they would like to push and which alot of people will also simply take at face value.

The same also applies to those posters now in this thread arguing that that the bump in case numbers today has nothing to do with schools reopening. Very much telling us that the schools haven't been back long enough. Now they need to also go back and apply that very same logic to NPHET with their meaningless statement in the context of schools being back a mere 5 days.

TonyMaloney

They've reverted to proper random mass testing of schools and childcare facilities.

So far so good for schools, but then that's to be expected.
Special schools did well given many of their kids have been back a while.

Childcare facilities were again significantly above the national level positivity rate.
488 tested in 38 facilities. 32 kids and 11 adults discovered.
8.8% of all tested were found to be positive.

You can get all weekly reports here
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

Locotastic

TonyMaloney wrote: »

They've reverted to proper random mass testing of schools and childcare facilities.

So far so good for schools, but then that's to be expected.
Special schools did well given many of their kids have been back a while.

Childcare facilities were again significantly above the national level positivity rate.
488 tested in 38 facilities. 32 kids and 11 adults discovered.
8.8% of all tested were found to be positive.

You can get all weekly reports here
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

How are they mass testing schools? Is it just random or part of tracing?

KerryConnor

Thanks for that. They're testing tiny numbers and it's still only close contacts, not random. 281 in primary school out of 300,000 returning kids (have I got that 300k number right?)

TonyMaloney wrote: »

They've reverted to proper random mass testing of schools and childcare facilities.

So far so good for schools, but then that's to be expected.
Special schools did well given many of their kids have been back a while.

Childcare facilities were again significantly above the national level positivity rate.
488 tested in 38 facilities. 32 kids and 11 adults discovered.
8.8% of all tested were found to be positive.

You can get all weekly reports here
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

P2C

A outbreak is where there is risk of exposure identified and spread of the virus. That spread could be to one other person in the school setting.


quote="big syke;116534165"]I think it is all about the phrasing.

A school outbreak to me is an infected child passing it on to other kids in the school.

So in a 30 person class 1 child passing it on to say 10 kids.

This is a school outbreak.

I view it like the meat factories. ABP Bandon in January there were 66 cases in an outbrek in the factory. You dont see cases as high as this in school.[/quote]

KerryConnor

got above from page 2 of this doc

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-and-childcare-facilities-mass-testing-report-week-9-2021.pdf

TonyMaloney

Locotastic wrote: »

How are they mass testing schools? Is it just random or part of tracing?

I'm not sure how schools are selected. Could be random, could be rotation. I dunno.

In recent weeks they'd caveated their reports to say that it wasn't random testing, that the schools and facilities were selected due to contract tracing. So at least one known case.

Now they're back to their caveat free report. The rate has dropped significantly, but it's still double that of the national rate.

TonyMaloney

KerryConnor wrote: »

got above from page 2 of this doc

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-and-childcare-facilities-mass-testing-report-week-9-2021.pdf

Ffs

I'm an idiot. Sorry.

Htf did I do this again

Hurrache

KerryConnor wrote: »

That's not mass testing - it's testing of close contacts.

For some reason they call it mass testing.

Mass testing is testing everyone in a school, even on a random basis , regardless of whether there has been a case or not.

All I said was that full classes are tested, nothing more.

However testing 30 or so kids qualifies as mass testing in many books.

KerryConnor

Wasn't totally sure myself so just looked up definition of "Mass testing definition" in google.. result is:

"Mass testing for covid-19 aims to find people with active infection who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic so that quarantine, and rapid finding and testing of close contacts, can interrupt spread."

So they haven't done any mass testing in schools. Those full classes being tested have already being in contact with a confirmed positive case

Hurrache wrote: »

All I said was that full classes are tested, nothing more.

However testing 30 or so kids qualifies as mass testing in many books.

KerryConnor

Don't be sorry it's totally confusing!

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Ffs

I'm an idiot. Sorry.

Htf did I do this again

byhookorbycrook

TonyMaloney wrote: »

They've reverted to proper random mass testing of schools and childcare facilities.

So far so good for schools, but then that's to be expected.
Special schools did well given many of their kids have been back a while.

Childcare facilities were again significantly above the national level positivity rate.
488 tested in 38 facilities. 32 kids and 11 adults discovered.
8.8% of all tested were found to be positive.

You can get all weekly reports here
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

There is no “ mass testing “ in schools. There never was. Why do you think school staff were told to ignore the COVID tracker app that showed when they were “close contacts “ in any other situation but not if in a classroom with 30 unmasked others.

byhookorbycrook

Hurrache wrote: »

All I said was that full classes are tested, nothing more.

However testing 30 or so kids qualifies as mass testing in many books.

Untrue , unfortunately. Even children with no social distancing weren’t considered close contacts, much less tested. Why do you think schools were told not to inform parents of cases?

TonyMaloney

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

There is no “ mass testing “ in schools. There never was. Why do you think school staff were told to ignore the COVID tracker app that showed when they were “close contacts “ in any other situation but not if in a classroom with 30 unmasked others.

Are you saying they never mass tested any schools, or that it was always based on a tip off (contact tracing)?

This is all very murky

Icyseanfitz

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Are you saying they never mass tested any schools, or that it was always based on a tip off (contact tracing)?

This is all very murky

There was never any mass testing in schools, hell even the criteria for close contact testing was narrowed/reduced for schools