The way forward for LC2021

Treppen

rainbowtrout wrote: »

You mean like we used to have? A1, A2, B1, B2......

Lol I remember you mentioned that issue of banding on here years ago when the new bands were introduced Rainbowtrout.

rainbowtrout

Treppen wrote: »

Lol I remember you mentioned that issue of banding on here years ago when the new bands were introduced Rainbowtrout.

What goes around comes around :pac::pac::pac:

shesty

Rosita wrote: »

I doubt their plans will be very sensitive to precise numbers. The overwhelming majority of cases are now the UK variant strain and I'd say caution will be the order of the day.

The issue that "prolonged lockdowns don't work" is debatable. That depends what they are trying to achieve. They seem to work in keeping transmission under some level of control which it seems to me is really their only aim. Sweden went the opposite route and that has ended disastrously.

I would agree with this bit because it seems a very odd thing to do, to tie themselves into case numbers in such a concrete way, however there have been a few quotes in the last week from (I think) Donnelly, and others that they want to be at level A-B of cases before xyz can happen. If I remember correctly, in double digits to consider reopening hospitality, and 100-200 cases a day for other reopenings (I will try and find links). It feels like setting things up for failure, at the rate we are going.

rainbowtrout

Wombatman wrote: »

Yes. Only for the purposes of classifying students within a grade. Obviously the substantive grade structure won't change.

This way, unlike last year, multiple students can occupy the same slot. Teachers won't have to agonise over picking one student at the perceived expense of another.

But last year (for better or worse) we were allowed mark them out of 1000, which meant that we could give them a mark to two decimal points in order to separate out students. Which ultimately was pointless, as it's entirely possible for two students to score the exact same mark on an exam, so it should have been possible to give two students the same score.

Dividing 10% bands into two or four is just another way of describing ranking. The student getting 84.5 gets a B1 (in old money) and the student that gets 85 gets an A2. Any teacher will get you though that if you are comparing those two students on a day to day basis in school that they are probably evenly matched, some days on class tests Student A gets 1% higher, some days it's Student B, and some days they get the same.

Bobtheman

You could actually switch off your news for a few days and avoid the following
1.Government makes an announcement on something
2.Outrage or holes found in plan
3.Government abandons plan

deiseindublin

I sound like a broken record asking, but can anyone read between the lines and figure out if:
1. Students will be given the choice and have to pick in advance, or
2. Student will be given all CGs, and then have the option of sitting the exam or not?

The OR can mean anything.

pandoraj09

So I've just heard that the orals are set to go ahead on April 12th ie the first day back after the Easter holidays. I was sure they'd be cancelled. Anyone else hear this?

Bobtheman

I suspect this will be part of the plan
Kids get PG in Early May.
Kids can accept Predicted grade or do an exam in late June.


Im only guessing here but I suspect it will be along those lines.

Treppen

deiseindublin wrote: »

I sound like a broken record asking, but can anyone read between the lines and figure out if:
1. Students will be given the choice and have to pick in advance, or
2. Student will be given all CGs, and then have the option of sitting the exam or not?

The OR can mean anything.

Nobody knows what's the end plan but what I will say is :

1. Predicted grades only won't really wash with a lot of teachers, as in, how do I predict a leaving cert grade based on a few class tests or absent students etc.
2. See 1

Treppen

Bobtheman wrote: »

I suspect this will be part of the plan
Kids get PG in Early May.
Kids can accept Predicted grade or do an exam in late June.


Im only guessing here but I suspect it will be along those lines.

What if a teacher says, sorry not enough info to go on!

mtoutlemonde

Treppen wrote: »

What if a teacher says, sorry not enough info to go on!

Norma will be out to you with a stick

km79

pandoraj09 wrote: »

So I've just heard that the orals are set to go ahead on April 12th ie the first day back after the Easter holidays. I was sure they'd be cancelled. Anyone else hear this?

No
Where did you hear this ?

rainbowtrout

Bobtheman wrote: »

I suspect this will be part of the plan
Kids get PG in Early May.
Kids can accept Predicted grade or do an exam in late June.


Im only guessing here but I suspect it will be along those lines.

If predicted grades work in a similar manner to last year, then students can't get the grade in May. They'll get it in August along with the rest of the grades. Particularly if the DES can moderate them.

Treppen

rainbowtrout wrote: »

If predicted grades work in a similar manner to last year, then students can't get the grade in May. They'll get it in August along with the rest of the grades. Particularly if the DES can moderate them.

But predicted grades on their own are a no-go / red line issue for unions I thought!

Is there something im missing as people keep saying it like it's a thing. Is this predicted-grade-only a thing now?

rainbowtrout

Treppen wrote: »

But predicted grades on their own are a no-go / red line issue for unions I thought!

Is there something im missing as people keep saying it like it's a thing. Is this predicted-grade-only a thing now?

Ultimately I think they'll offer an either/or scenario like last year but the exams will operate in June instead of November. I know this is not the position of the unions, but the DES are liable to do anything at this stage.

km79

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Ultimately I think they'll offer an either/or scenario like last year but the exams will operate in June instead of November. I know this is not the position of the unions, but the DES are liable to do anything at this stage.

Thinking about it logically that would actually be fairer on students
They wouldn’t have a huge break between the end of their schooling and exams like they did last year
They work away and aim towards June as normal if they want
They also won’t have to wait another year for college
Everyone’s results out in August together
Prob the best that can be expected .

rainbowtrout

km79 wrote: »

Thinking about it logically that would actually be fairer on students
They wouldn’t have a huge break between the end of their schooling and exams like they did last year
They work away and aim towards June as normal if they want
They also won’t have to wait another year for college
Everyone’s results out in August together
Prob the best that can be expected .

Logistically it gets them all through the system in one go and you don't have a hangover of students who are deferring anyway, along with a winter cohort who need to be included the following year.

Str8outtaWuhan

km79 wrote: »

Thinking about it logically that would actually be fairer on students
They wouldn’t have a huge break between the end of their schooling and exams like they did last year
They work away and aim towards June as normal if they want
They also won’t have to wait another year for college
Everyone’s results out in August together
Prob the best that can be expected .

Where is the carrot for the unions? June exams , preserving their holidays? There surely must be some stick that forces some to opt for sit down exams else virtually everyone will go PG.

km79

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

Where is the carrot for the unions? June exams , preserving their holidays? There surely must be some stick that forces some to opt for sit down exams else virtually everyone will go PG.

The carrot is this school year ends as quickly as possible

deiseindublin

I've an LC here that says they'd sit the exams if offered best of both, I'd say lots would. What's another 6 weeks at that stage?

km79

deiseindublin wrote: »

I've an LC here that says they'd sit the exams if offered best of both, I'd say lots would. What's another 6 weeks at that stage?

That’s what I mean
Exams as normal in June as opposed to pushing them out

wirelessdude01

Do people think they will allow students to pick and choose between them or you have to use the full hand from either CG or written?

jimmytwotimes 2013

deiseindublin wrote: »

I've an LC here that says they'd sit the exams if offered best of both, I'd say lots would. What's another 6 weeks at that stage?

Did straw poll with my 6th years last week.

They'd all take predictive and maybe sit a paper or two, at most, if that's what's on offer.

They feel they could best a couple of predicted scores but probably not all of them if they had to take all exams on as wud be norm.

Stands to reason.

am_zarathustra

But at the end of the day, if everyone assumes that, and they standardise the predicted grades in one group and the exams as a concurrent but separate group they should take all the exams to be safe. Everyone can't pick and choose their best without most being downgraded

km79

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Do people think they will allow students to pick and choose between them or you have to use the full hand from either CG or written?

Pick and choose but without knowing what they have got in PG

noplacehere

How on earth do they standardise exams versus predictive grading if they have a complete either or? I mean predictive grading is largely based on class tests and formative assessment. The LC is a summative assessment and there was massive over estimating on the calculated grades last year. They will have to be adjusted in some way to line them up surely?

Random sample

Normas Friday evening holding statement last week seemed to offer a choice. I think that’s madness. All of mine will pick predictive grades, and most of them will be disappointed with the results. They are 18, they are deluded, they are not in a position to make those decisions whatever issu say.

jimmytwotimes 2013

km79 wrote: »

Pick and choose but without knowing what they have got in PG

We all guessing but I think they might get the PG a month beforehand and have to decide then. Could be a way to keep them in school or doing lessons if they're not 100% sure til later in academic year.

Prob completely wrong.

am_zarathustra

They have to do them separately really. It's a mess, particular students will sit exams particular students will want the predictive. If standardising they would have to be done separately, as in bell curve them all. PG for everyone, bell curve that. Let those who want to take that grade, take it. The exams are then sat and standardized as normal. I wouldnt be sure but my guess is a lot of students will need to be downgraded in PG, the exam might be a safer bet in the end, at least your own ability or work ethic will be the only reason your grade is changed, not a random program doing God knows what!

jayo76

Random sample wrote: »

Normas Friday evening holding statement last week seemed to offer a choice. I think that’s madness. All of mine will pick predictive grades, and most of them will be disappointed with the results. They are 18, they are deluded, they are not in a position to make those decisions whatever issu say.

Agreed that a huge amount will be disappointed with results. Lots of 6th years regardless of what they have got on average over the two years of LC have blinkers on as regards their likely result. Im not having a go with that statement, they are 18, they want the best but sometimes there is a total lack of reality.

The guidance counsellor came in to our staffroom the day after results were available last September to announce that huge numbers of last years 6th years were very upset, shocked at what teachers had given them as calculated grades. I understand it, I do as I outlined above so I listened politely until she mentioned two particular students. Both had failed multiple subjects in the mocks and generally done little to no work over the two years. They failed no subject in the calculated grades but here was the Counsellor announcing they should have done much better and had been on to her to make this clear.

This will be even more rife this year and again be the teachers fault of course. Calculated grades are a shambles, both for students like those outlined above and for teachers. They are also a shambles for the high achievers who got unfairly downgraded of course.

Random sample

jayo76 wrote: »

Agreed that a huge amount will be disappointed with results. Lots of 6th years regardless of what they have got on average over the two years of LC have blinkers on as regards their likely result. Im not having a go with that statement, they are 18, they want the best but sometimes there is a total lack of reality.

The guidance counsellor came in to our staffroom the day after results were available last September to announce that huge numbers of last years 6th years were very upset, shocked at what teachers had given them as calculated grades. I understand it, I do as I outlined above so I listened politely until she mentioned two particular students. Both had failed multiple subjects in the mocks and generally done little to no work over the two years. They failed no subject in the calculated grades but here was the Counsellor announcing they should have done much better and had been on to her to make this clear.

This will be even more rife this year and again be the teachers fault of course. Calculated grades are a shambles, both for students like those outlined above and for teachers. They are also a shambles for the high achievers who got unfairly downgraded of course.

And these 6th years won’t have the reality check that is a failed mock either.

Wombatman

Based on official statements, interviews and leaks its fair to stay students have a legitimate expectation of:

1. Some manner of LC exam in June.
2. Some manner of estimated grades.

In my view DES has a two conflicting objectives here.

Objective 1.
Fob as many students as possible off with PGs so the exams can be small scale with maybe 10 - 20% for students opting to do them.

This will involve getting's PGs complied by teachers, standardised and published before students opt for doing exams. It could take a couple of months to complete the PG process from start to finish.

So a reasonable timeline for this might be, start PG process mid March and publish results end of April. Most students, who get the points they need for their main choices, will be happy with that and down tools. Start of May to mid May, students will be asked to sign up for exams. Exams will start at very end of June.

Objective 2.
Keep students working away for as long as possible.

Really challenging couple of months ahead for everyone. Where orals, practicals and course work fit in God only knows.

I wouldn't be surprised it teachers get notified to begin the PG process in the next couple of weeks, with recommendations on how to build up required data, if it is not already there.

jimmytwotimes 2013

What Wombatman said *thumbs up*

km79

I’m sorry but there is NO WAY predicted grades can be generated by schools and verified by the SEC in 6-8 weeks with easter in the middle as well
It’s just not going to happen
These are important results
If it’s going to be done it has to be done properly

Predicted grades results will come out around August imo
The only question is whether students will be told choose to sit the exams in June without knowing their PG
Or
Wait till November again

I’ve a feeling it will be the former and the DEpt and SEC will bank on low numbers

Random sample

From a teachers perspective it makes more sense to have exams first. Predictive grades should be after the exams, for those who couldn’t sit them due to being a close contact or being in isolation.

I can’t get my head around giving everyone a free pass, when in 2019 a concession was to get 3 days off if your mother died during the exams.

am_zarathustra

km79 wrote: »

I’m sorry but there is NO WAY predicted grades can be generated by schools and verified by the SEC in 6-8 weeks with easter in the middle as well
It’s just not going to happen
These are important results
If it’s going to be done it has to be done properly

Predicted grades results will come out around August imo
The only question is whether students will be told choose to sit the exams in June without knowing their PG
Or
Wait till November again

I’ve a feeling it will be the former and the DEpt and SEC will bank on low numbers

Completely agree, literally impossible to have predicted grades in that timeline. We are having mocks type exams just before Easter but the last term is very long, having that not included would make PG even more of an excercise in fiction. The unions won't agree to it. If they need a new program (which Im guessing after the high court ruling comes down we will) that will need to be tendered for and then actually produced and maybe controversially tested. The DES are not that efficient. I'm guessing maybe blind going into exams, which hopefully will be in June, but in that case any teacher worth their salt would have to tell their students to sit the exam, I don't trust the PG system, I know I'll be telling them to sit the exams unless they have the confirmed results in their hands before! Even then, to be honest, I can't see the harm in sitting it anyway.....might suit them, the paper, or the standardising could work out.

am_zarathustra

Random sample wrote: »

From a teachers perspective it makes more sense to have exams first. Predictive grades should be after the exams, for those who couldn’t sit them due to being a close contact or being in isolation.

I can’t get my head around giving everyone a free pass, when in 2019 a concession was to get 3 days off if your mother died during the exams.

I was explaining that to someone a few weeks ago, many students in normal times have to sit exams in horrific situations......which is fine as long as it's not their poor Johnny, never crosses their mind normally

rainbowtrout

Random sample wrote: »

Normas Friday evening holding statement last week seemed to offer a choice. I think that’s madness. All of mine will pick predictive grades, and most of them will be disappointed with the results. They are 18, they are deluded, they are not in a position to make those decisions whatever issu say.

They're looking at the outcome of last year:

• Grades were massively inflated and remained so even after adjustment
• 80% of grades were not downgraded after moderation
• Opportunity to get at least what they think they are worth or better without sitting the exam.

Random sample

am_zarathustra wrote: »

I was explaining that to someone a few weeks ago, many students in normal times have to sit exams in horrific situations......which is fine as long as it's not their poor Johnny, never crosses their mind normally

And they were required to go to Athlone for the later resit too.

am_zarathustra

Random sample wrote: »

And they were required to go to Athlone for the later resit too.

I thought it was regional centres, either way, terrible

Random sample

rainbowtrout wrote: »

They're looking at the outcome of last year:

• Grades were massively inflated and remained so even after adjustment
• 80% of grades were not downgraded after moderation
• Opportunity to get at least what they think they are worth or better without sitting the exam.

Are we going to have permanent grade inflation so? Why should the class of 22 have to sit a leaving cert if we have had two years of inflated guess grades?

PoolDude

I guess it depends on whether there is ‘choice’ or not in the final options.

If there is then it’s whether it’s blind choice or informed choice for those students. I can see another outcry from students & opposition parties if it’s not the later and can see how it’s going to be very difficult for teachers and the DES to meet a timeline to give informed choice (PG results before start of June).

There’s a way to go on this one yet I suspect

am_zarathustra

I think they will hold off til the high court judgement, if that shines a light on what went on maybe people will see the wisdom in some form of exam.

Otherwise inflation will be mad, I won't have the data and given a varience of say 10% around a grade for each student this year where it would have been maybe 5% last year (maybe less in one of my subjects) I'll have to award up. Most teachers will do this this year. That will absolutely lead to more downgrades this year to even just keep it in line with last year's inflation.

If the kids don't have the standardized PGs and the exams go ahead in June would you be recommending all your students sit the exams?

rainbowtrout

am_zarathustra wrote: »

They have to do them separately really. It's a mess, particular students will sit exams particular students will want the predictive. If standardising they would have to be done separately, as in bell curve them all. PG for everyone, bell curve that. Let those who want to take that grade, take it. The exams are then sat and standardized as normal. I wouldnt be sure but my guess is a lot of students will need to be downgraded in PG, the exam might be a safer bet in the end, at least your own ability or work ethic will be the only reason your grade is changed, not a random program doing God knows what!

I only read the press release on the grades from when they were released 2 weeks ago, today.

It makes for interesting reading in terms of statistics.

The number of students who sat the winter LC in each subject is listed.

The top 10 subjects in number of students who sat them were:

The first column shows the number of people who sat the exam in Winter 2020. The second column shows the number of people who sat that subject in 2019, which I'm using as a rough estimate for total number of 2020 candidates.


Biology 837 34000 2.46%
Maths 718 55000 1.31%
Chemistry 424 9500 4.46%
English 380 54500 0.70%
Irish 275 48000 0.57%
French 264 23500 1.12%
Business 216 17300 1.25%
Geography 201 24000 0.84%
Physics 188 7800 2.41%
Ag Science 142 7700 1.84%





The sciences are way over represented in the table given the numbers that sit them. But aside from Ag Science which has a project, the other three (and maths) are 100% factual exams, with no subjectivity.

So I think it will largely depend on what format any sort of predicted grading will take and how project components/orals etc will be marked/assessed this year. Written exams favour factual subjects without project components

If I was a C student in English, I'd gladly take a C/H4 as a predicted grade, which given that it's a middle of the road grade so far less likely to be downgraded than learn a vast amount of poetry and prose and drama, and concentrate on the factual stuff I know I can get right with enough practice.

rainbowtrout

jayo76 wrote: »

The guidance counsellor came in to our staffroom the day after results were available last September to announce that huge numbers of last years 6th years were very upset, shocked at what teachers had given them as calculated grades. I understand it, I do as I outlined above so I listened politely until she mentioned two particular students. Both had failed multiple subjects in the mocks and generally done little to no work over the two years. They failed no subject in the calculated grades but here was the Counsellor announcing they should have done much better and had been on to her to make this clear.

That counsellor needs a good kick if they thought it was professional or appropriate to come in and berate teachers who were given an impossible task and by the sounds of it gave those students the benefit of the doubt.

noplacehere

I think there really is a fundamental misunderstanding among the general public, parents and students as to the difference between formative assessments and class tests versus summative assessments. I don’t know how this is explained but it is fundamental and I don’t know how it gets overcome

Studies in the uk showed only about 50% of predictions were accurate with like 40% over predicted as far as I remember. We are going to be even less accurate particularly after last years fiasco. So unless the department are going to whole sale downgrade half the predications then these predications based on just one or two summative assessments (Christmas test fifth year and sixth year/mocks at Christmas in most schools) are going to be far more generous. Without massive downgrades those results will not be comparable with a normal SEC paper without massive adjustments to the bell curve. And if the department do downgrade students then there will be outcry that they did.

This is a total mess

rainbowtrout

Random sample wrote: »

Are we going to have permanent grade inflation so? Why should the class of 22 have to sit a leaving cert if we have had two years of inflated guess grades?

No I would say not. I would hope 2022 would bring a return to normal or as close to normal as possible. I'd say it'll be more a case of 'get this crowd out the door in whatever way possible and get most of them into college'.

deiseindublin

I don't know how two different bell curves can work? Do you make CG fit the bell curve, and the do same for those sitting exams? Honestly, it'll be a mess.

@Random sample - as much as I don't agree with or want a free pass for any cohort of students, I don't agree with your line on class of 22. LC20 and LC21 haven't chosen this option. A world pandemic and a badly prepared DES have foisted it upon them. Whatever solution of sorts that is announced might not be equitable with LC19 or LC22, depending on how long this goes on, but we are where we are, and a solution, however unequitable has to be found.

Lots of LCs would prefer to have had exams, along with a full year in school, 20k less CAO applicants, and next to no CAO points inflation - not to mention the sheer unpredictability of how they'll fare in CGs.

I really don't think it's any walk in the park for them, and the LC living here sure as hell wouldn't pick it.

History Queen

rainbowtrout wrote: »

No I would say not. I would hope 2022 would bring a return to normal or as close to normal as possible. I'd say it'll be more a case of 'get this crowd out the door in whatever way possible and get most of them into college'.

Look up the #LC2022 on twitter, there's already calls not to forget about them.

rainbowtrout

noplacehere wrote: »

I think there really is a fundamental misunderstanding among the general public, parents and students as to the difference between formative assessments and class tests versus summative assessments. I don’t know how this is explained but it is fundamental and I don’t know how it gets overcome

Studies in the uk showed only about 50% of predictions were accurate with like 40% over predicted as far as I remember. We are going to be even less accurate particularly after last years fiasco. So unless the department are going to whole sale downgrade half the predications then these predications based on just one or two summative assessments (Christmas test fifth year and sixth year/mocks at Christmas in most schools) are going to be far more generous. Without massive downgrades those results will not be comparable with a normal SEC paper without massive adjustments to the bell curve. And if the department do downgrade students then there will be outcry that they did.

This is a total mess

Well if you were to take some of the comments on The Journal :rolleyes: as a representation of what the public currently think, many of the public think that the ASTI are causing ructions because they want teachers to get paid for supervision and marking in the summer and predicted grades will take away this source of income. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

If that's what we are dealing with, I don't hold out much hope for people understand the finer details of assessment.