When will it all end?

davidbeckham32

looking like most of this year is a write off at this stage?

NeuralNetwork

aido79 wrote: »

I agree but can we bypass the EU programme?

If it fails to deliver, which I hope is not likely to be the case, I could see it being used but countries going beyond it.

There’s a lot of frustration building about it and not just in Ireland.

JDD

I hope there are some bods in government departments working on the various scenarios.

Scenario 1: At least one of the vaccines will work each and all of the known new strains. By summer enough people will be immunised, on a worldwide basis, so that new strains are unlikely to occur. By winter enough people will immunised, on a worldwide basis, to ensure that day to day life can resume.

In the above scenario, how do we come out lockdown without having a fourth wave and while minimising further economic failure and damaging people's mental health further?

Scenario 2: One new strain emerges that is resistant to all current vaccines. There is a scramble from the various pharma companies to amend present vaccines or to test new ones against this new strain. Pharma companies state that it will take at least a year before we will know if a modified/new vaccine will work.

In the above scenario, what steps do we take? Further lockdowns for another year? Will people accept this? Will we look to close the border with the North and go for a zero covid strategy? Will we get agreement with the North to go for an all-Ireland strategy (least likely option in my opinion). Will we get agreement to do a zero covid UK and Ireland strategy?

Scenario 3: A number of new vaccine resistant strains make an appearance over the next six months. It becomes clear that we cannot make enough tailored vaccinations to keep up with the variety of new strains.

What then? Do we build temporary hospitals and import as many doctors and nurses from abroad that we can find? Do we lower the points for medicine and nursing and have hundreds more homegrown hospital staff in four years time to staff these new hospitals? Do we then try to go back to normal? Because we can't do this for another ten years, or twenty or whatever.

tommybrees

By all means aido you and whoever else follows this narrative can stay at home forever if you want and follow the 'experts' advice and wear masks until your dead that's your choice.
I have no problem with people who wanna live that way if that's what they chose, now let the rest of us get our lives back and start living again restrictions free.

aido79

bucketybuck wrote: »

Do you not think that a year later there should be even a little bit of nuance in our response? Have they even tried to implement layered responses?

They have industries shut down when there is no evidence whatsoever that they are anything but negligible in terms of covid spread, but god forbid we try to contact trace and carry out risk assessments. They have entire counties closed when their level of cases were acceptably low, but god forbid we even try to have regional restrictions.

All of that would be hard, so instead we just use the same old sledgehammer every time. No alternatives, no ideas, simpler just to tell the phlebbs that they have to stay at home. Who cares that this is peoples' lives being destroyed day by day and week by week.

There has been different levels of reopening and closing throughout this whole thing. It hasn't been level 5 lockdown or a sledgehammer as you call it.
Layered responses would the correct approach but only when cases are low enough. They need to open up one step at a time. First open the schools..wait a few weeks and see what effect that has on case numbers. If that doesn't have too much effect on case numbers then open construction...wait a few weeks and see what effect that has. Then open retail if it's safe to do so and so on.
These things need to be done one step at a time so causes of outbreaks can be identified.
People calling for everything to open obviously don't care about anyone but themselves. There's far less chance of the country being put into another lockdown if the biggests factors of outbreaks can be identified and these area can be shutdown if cases rise rather than going for level 5 everytime.

aido79

tommybrees wrote: »

By all means aido you and whoever else follows this narrative can stay at home forever if you want and follow the 'experts' advice and wear masks until your dead that's your choice.
I have no problem with people who wanna live that way if that's what they chose, now let the rest of us get our lives back and start living again restrictions free.

Believe me I want nothing more for life to go back to normal and am at the end of my tether with all this lockdown stuff. However it's fairly obvious from what happened over Xmas that opening everything up would just be a recipe for disaster and will prolong the situation.
What do you think would happen if the government just opened everything up tomorrow and everyone went back to normal with no restrictions?

mcsean2163

NIMAN wrote: »

Which 2 countries are stricter than us?

NZ and Oz?

Eritrea and Cuba.

davidbeckham32

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Eritrea and Cuba.

bucketybuck

aido79 wrote: »

Believe me I want nothing more for life to go back to normal and am at the end of my tether with all this lockdown stuff. However it's fairly obvious from what happened over Xmas that opening everything up would just be a recipe for disaster and will prolong the situation.
What do you think would happen if the government just opened everything up tomorrow and everyone went back to normal with no restrictions?

Why did I bother talking about nuanced responses if you just want to label it as "open everything up".

Richard Hillman

aido79 wrote: »

Believe me I want nothing more for life to go back to normal and am at the end of my tether with all this lockdown stuff. However it's fairly obvious from what happened over Xmas that opening everything up would just be a recipe for disaster and will prolong the situation.
What do you think would happen if the government just opened everything up tomorrow and everyone went back to normal with no restrictions?

It's a different scenario to Christmas. There won't be the emphasis of visiting people and family gatherings.

Retail and pubs opening had very little impact on the increase in numbers, as Dublin during the early parts of January had numbers either in line with the population percentage or lower. And to be honest, it was mostly lower. If things like Retail, Restaurants etc were a factor, the numbers in Dublin would have been through the roof.

All we need is a Level 3ish Lockdown and the over 70s have to isolate until vaccinated.

mcsean2163

If anyone interested data is here.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index

And yes, Cuba strictest, Eritrea second strictest and we're number 3.

aido79

bucketybuck wrote: »

Why did I bother talking about nuanced responses if you just want to label it as "open everything up".

Probably because it's the first time any of your posts have suggested anything other than an open everything up approach.

aido79

Richard Hillman wrote: »

It's a different scenario to Christmas. There won't be the emphasis of visiting people and family gatherings.

Retail and pubs opening had very little impact on the increase in numbers, as Dublin during the early parts of January had numbers either in line with the population percentage or lower. And to be honest, it was mostly lower. If things like Retail, Restaurants etc were a factor, the numbers in Dublin would have been through the roof.

All we need is a Level 3ish Lockdown and the over 70s have to isolate until vaccinated.

I'd agree with most of that but wouldn't be in favour of the pubs reopening initially just to err on the side of caution.

CalamariFritti

aido79 wrote: »

Yeah and if they stopped x-raying people cases of broken bones will go down too.

You kinda hit the nail on the head here.
People with broken bones go to the hospital because they have a broken bone. Thats what you call a case.
Thats quite different to x-raying 10,000 people a day who felt an itch on their shin or felt nothing at all.

aido79

CalamariFritti wrote: »

You kinda hit the nail on the head here.
People with broken bones go to the hospital because they have a broken bone. Thats what you call a case.
Thats quite different to x-raying 10,000 people a day who felt an itch on their shin or felt nothing at all.

Have you got proof that covid19 has never been spread by someone who is either asymptomatic or before they have had symptoms? Do you honestly believe all cases are spread only by people who are showing symptoms of covid19?

CalamariFritti

aido79 wrote: »

Have you got proof that covid19 has never been spread by someone who is either asymptomatic or before they have had symptoms? Do you honestly believe all cases are spread only by people who are showing symptoms of covid19?

Whats that got to do with what you said earlier? I was merely pointing out that your analogy sucks.

Edit: Never mind, I take that back. I wasnt just attacking the analogy and I concede your point. Your analogy still sucks though.

josip

davidbeckham32 wrote: »

looking like most of this year is a write off at this stage?

That's what they want you to think.
Rage, rage against the dying light.

GT89

aido79 wrote: »

They take advice from people who are experts in the area of disease control, immunology, microbiology etc.

You on the other hand watch YouTube videos that align with your narrative, believe everything on conspiracy theory websites and get your information from Twitter.

I prefer the politicians' approach.

And these people are only experts in diseases that already existed long before covid such as Malaria, Ebola and Aids. They are not experts in covid as covid has only been around a year supposedly meaning that one can not have studied it in any great depth and any measures being are only guesswork.

Professor Delores Cahill is an immunologist who has a very different view on things. Why isn't she on NPHET.

aido79

GT89 wrote: »

And these people are only experts in diseases that already existed long before covid such as Malaria, Ebola and Aids. They are not experts in covid as covid has only been around a year supposedly meaning that one can not have studied it in any great depth and any measures being are only guesswork.

Professor Delores Cahill is an immunologist who has a very different view on things. Why isn't she on NPHET.

You're probably aware that covid19 is a type of coronavirus at this stage. This type of virus has been intently studied since the 1920's so while there might not have been studies on covid19 there is a lot of information available on diseases closely related to it such as SARS and MERS. I would think with the amount of people involved in the research of covid19 at the stage around the world it's a little bit better than guesswork.

This is why Dolores Cahill isn't on nphet:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/debunked-dolores-cahill-covid-19-video-masks-lockdown-vaccines-5315519-Jan2021/%3famp=1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29R2NR

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ucd-professor-asked-to-resign-from-eu-committee-over-covid-19-claims-1.4277698%3fmode=amp

She is nuttier than squirrel sh&t and anyone who takes any notice of her needs their head examined.

ShineOn7

davidbeckham32 wrote: »

looking like most of this year is a write off at this stage?

Of course it is

WHO (and I believe CDC too) have said no pandemic in history has lasted less than 2 years

So people need to accept more that March next year is what we're looking at to see a real difference. We won't see vaccines make a dent in things till October at the least

There's too many people living in denial about things tbh

From holidays to everyone needing instant gratification for everything: we've all become too entitled

And Covid doesn't give a fcuk. It's doing what pandemics do

On the upside: The vaccine news gets better every week. Them and better therapeutics will eventually strangle this to a bad Flu

Eventually


But it won't all happen in 2021

jmlad2020

2022 we will begin to see the COVID ice thaw. Get used to it people you don't need a trip to Lanzarote this summer.

Mimon

jmlad2020 wrote: »

2022 we will begin to see the COVID ice thaw. Get used to it people you don't need a trip to Lanzarote this summer.

A foreign holiday is not a necessity all right but this latest lockdown has shown that people need more social interactions and to be able to see family etc. That is a necessity at this stage.

With the variants it looks like foreign travel won't be a goer this year but hopefully people can get away in Ireland by June/July.

Dred.

My observation is that people are mingling more outdoors

Oberkon

Dred. wrote: »

My observation is that people are mingling more outdoors

Absolutely , I go through malahide park regularly, about 20 lads the other nite standing with a few cans smoking hash . Normally see smaller packs , that was an exception but it’s a regular meeting point for it and general dealing after 6. I’d say it’s the same in many parks
They are bored silly from the looks of it

Micky 32

It’s all well and good with all the condescending and ‘ do gooders’ posts regarding travel. Travel isn’t all about holidays. I was talking to a polish woman and she was quite distressed not knowing when she’ll see her 80+ year old mother back in Poland again.

niallo27

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s all well and good with all the condescending and ‘ do gooders’ posts regarding travel. Travel isn’t all about holidays. I was talking to a polish woman and she was quite distressed not knowing when she’ll see her 80+ year old mother back in Poland.

They are only on a wind up. Ignore them

Micky 32

niallo27 wrote: »

They are only on a wind up. Ignore them

Along with other agendas….

Mr. Karate

Dred. wrote: »

My observation is that people are mingling more outdoors

Definitely. Yesterday when I was walking my Dog I saw a group of teenagers walking and hanging out together. Not a mask as well. Slowly, but surely people are copping on to this.

Kivaro

Wales are relaxing their restrictions tomorrow. February 20th.
And yet here we are, with the leader of our country telling us that we will have strict restrictions until May.
Do you know that on a clear day you can see Wales from Wexford.

ShineOn7

Kivaro wrote: »

Wales are relaxing their restrictions tomorrow. February 20th.

Yet more mis-information on a Sub-forum brimming with it

On the contrary, their lockdown is now extended

All that's changing from Monday are the schools

Wales lockdown extended for three weeks, with youngest pupils returning to school on Monday

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-wales-lockdown-extended-for-three-weeks-with-youngest-pupils-returning-to-school-on-monday-12222339