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When will it all end?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    11, 13 and 14.

    Is this a bit like the conspiracy theorists Bible where you get to quote chapter and verse as a way of insisting you're right ;)

    But nope repeating conspiracy type beliefs ad nauseum don't make them any more believable you know ..

    Edit: Ah I see you added even more attempted insult ...

    But by no means am I an "anti-relaxxer" :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    gozunda wrote: »
    Is this a bit like the conspiracy theorists Bible where you get to quote chapter and verse as a way of insisting you're right ;)

    But nope repeating conspiracy type beliefs ad nauseum don't make them any more believable you know ..

    Edit: Ah I see you added even more attempted insult ...

    But by no means am I an "anti-relaxxer" :D

    I'll add number 15 to this particular poster after the above.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    I'll add number 15 to this particular poster after the above.

    Ah more conspiracy theory Bible and verse Bingo :pac:

    You're doing well there keep going ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Seriously people need to chill and ignore the waffling posts about why we’ll still be locked up for the winter. I guess it makes certain posters feel relevant.

    The data emerging of the dramatic drop in cases with HCW’s and the death rate in older people plummeting due to the vaccines is hugely significant. You have NEPHET, HSE, even MM aknowledging it. Once the masses are vaccinated there will be little need for restrictions or lockdowns going forward.

    Make no mistake, this will come to an end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Seriously people need to chill and ignore the waffling posts why we’ll still be locked up for the winter. I guess it makes certain posters feel relevant.

    The data emerging of the dramatic drop in cases with HCW’s and the death rate in older people plummeting due to the vaccines is hugely significant. You have NEPHET, HSE, even MM aknowledging it. Once the masses are vaccinated there will be little need for restrictions or lockdowns going forward.

    Make no mistake, this will come to an end.

    But....but....but variants. We are all doomed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    But....but....but variants. We are all doomed.

    No. Varients certainly are factor globally as they were here where we saw the UK varient aiding an increasing the rate of infection along with lots more travel over Christmas. Its simply another issue which needs to kept an eye on.

    But no were not "doomed" regardless of the hyperbole or media sensationalism.


  • Site Banned Posts: 85 ✭✭jackryan34


    Well, yes and no. The real world trials we have seen so far have been in very controlled, lockdown environments. The UK and Israel have both been in lockdown until now.

    Exactly

    People are not getting this part, 95% efficacious with countries in lockdown

    Chance of infection in trials were less than 1% over 2-3 months for all groups

    8/18,000 vaccine, 99.96% chance of no infection

    162/18,000 placebo, 99.10% chance of no infection

    If everything is opened, no restrictions, concerts, discos and chance of infection is high what happens?

    Are vaccines that don't stop transmission good enough to keep RO below 1 with no restrictions?

    Its an RO of 6 or more with no restrictions

    Whats the real world hospitalisation % rate of elderly covid infected vaccine patients

    5%?

    Its 20% in placebo?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 378 ✭✭newuser99999



    I think it's interesting how many posters are willing to dismiss anything except the best case scenario. Note how many posters are saying something to the effect of " people won't accept restrictions next winter" and consider that people accepted restrictions after Christmas because they were generally seen as necessary. If restrictions are necessary again next winter then yes, of course there could be restrictions.

    Nearly every time I’ve come on to read this thread you’re on about what happened last Christmas.

    None of us know for certain what’s going to happen next month let alone next Christmas.

    Let it go.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Nearly every time I’ve come on to read this thread you’re on about what happened last Christmas.

    None of us know for certain what’s going to happen next month let alone next Christmas.

    Let it go.

    Yeah, some people are stuck in 2020 also.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    jackryan34 wrote: »

    If everything is opened, no restrictions, concerts, discos and chance of infection is high what happens?

    So you’d propose that we keep them all closed permanently? Would you suggest that , seeing that you’re claiming the vaccines don’t work because the trials were done in lockdown. It doesn’t work that way and everything was taken into account. The rubbish being posted on here is actually making me laugh :pac:

    If my memory serves me correctly ( forgive me if i’m wrong and i do apologise if i am wrong) didn’t you post one time something about pubs etc will never be reopening again?:D

    Even though i feel like a parrot i’ll repeat. The end is in sight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Seriously people need to chill and ignore the waffling posts about why we’ll still be locked up for the winter. I guess it makes certain posters feel relevant.

    The data emerging of the dramatic drop in cases with HCW’s and the death rate in older people plummeting due to the vaccines is hugely significant. You have NEPHET, HSE, even MM aknowledging it. Once the masses are vaccinated there will be little need for restrictions or lockdowns going forward.

    Make no mistake, this will come to an end.

    Oh yes. If someone telly you we'll definitely be locked down for the winter then they're overstating the case because we don't know what will happen in winter. Likewise, anyone who is telling you we definitely won't have restrictions this winter is overstating the case for exactly the same reason.

    There was a poster a couple a few pages ago who was honest enough to say they were only willing to think about the best case scenario because they couldn't cope with thinking about any other scenarios. That's honest but it doesn't get any closer to working out what will likely happen in reality.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,148 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Seriously people need to chill and ignore the waffling posts about why we’ll still be locked up for the winter. I guess it makes certain posters feel relevant.

    The data emerging of the dramatic drop in cases with HCW’s and the death rate in older people plummeting due to the vaccines is hugely significant. You have NEPHET, HSE, even MM aknowledging it. Once the masses are vaccinated there will be little need for restrictions or lockdowns going forward.

    Make no mistake, this will come to an end.

    We all know this - everyone bar the perpetually frightened realise that the end is in sight (or should be) - the problem is the people in charge dont seem to share the same view.

    I know that normal life will resume and the virus will become just an inconvenience, however I dont know if the Irish govt will relax the restrictions any time soon - or that they wont abuse their new 'toy' of lockdowns come next Winter when normal service is resumed with flu season & HSE out of capacity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Nearly every time I’ve come on to read this thread you’re on about what happened last Christmas.

    None of us know for certain what’s going to happen next month let alone next Christmas.

    Let it go.

    Yeah. None of us know what will happen next winter, It could go great without restrictions or it might not. I suppose that's why we're discussing it. If we knew then there wouldn't be much scope for discussion.

    But the fact that we don't know isn't a reason to "Let it go". It's reason to discuss it as a possibility, the same as we're discussing the possibility of everythign going great adn going back to complete normal in the summer.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Yeah. None of us know what will happen next winter, It could go great without restrictions or it might not. I suppose that's why we're discussing it. If we knew then there wouldn't be much scope for discussion.

    But the fact that we don't know isn't a reason to "Let it go". It's reason to discuss it as a possibility, the same as we're discussing the possibility of everythign going great adn going back to complete normal in the summer.

    Do you not get fed up repeating the same stuff every 15 to 20 minutes?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    So you’d propose that we keep them all closed permanently? Would you suggest that , seeing that you’re claiming the vaccines don’t work because the trials were done in lockdown. It doesn’t work that way and everything was taken into account. The rubbish being posted on here is actually making me laugh :pac:

    If my memory serves me correctly ( forgive me if i’m wrong and i do apologise if i am wrong) didn’t you post one time something about pubs etc will never be reopening again?:D

    Even though i feel like a parrot i’ll repeat. The end is in sight.

    I'm pretty sure they didn't suggest keeping anything closed. They asked a pretty clear question which assumed that things will open. I certainly assume things will open and I have posed the same question. It doesn't assume things should stay closed, it actually assumed things will reopen and poses a question on that basis.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,495 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I know that normal life will resume and the virus will become just an inconvenience, however I dont know if the Irish govt will relax the restrictions any time soon - or that they wont abuse their new 'toy' of lockdowns come next Winter when normal service is resumed with flu season & HSE out of capacity.

    Exactly.

    Saying that "restrictions" have become normalised does not mean that I agree that they are needed. Saying that they could be used again in the future does not mean that I think they should be used again in the future. It just means that the possibility exists.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Yeah. None of us know what will happen next winter, It could go great without restrictions or it might not. I suppose that's why we're discussing it. If we knew then there wouldn't be much scope for discussion.

    I think that covid is less likely to be the dominant cause of reintroduced guidance (not law, just guidance is my guess) at winter to wear masks and avoid crowds and public transport. Instead, the massive strain the health service is due to come under from covid-restrictions-caused postponed treatments combined with the normal seasonal surge in the winter is what will lead to the reintroduced guidance.

    I would really like to see obesity treated as a big public health issue to resolve post-covid, with public awareness campaigns about the dangers of being overweight combined with health guidelines on eating better, maybe some initiatives to promote healthier lifestyles etc. It is far more sustainable and would be more effective to target the problem rather than by telling people to just socially distance and wear masks every winter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Do you not get fed up repeating the same stuff every 15 to 20 minutes?

    I could ask you the same question or you could ask Micky the same question.

    I'm just posting the actual scenarios which remain and the major outstanding question which remains unanswerable until next winter. it make little sense to ignore the likely outcomes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I think that covid is less likely to be the dominant cause of reintroduced guidance (not law, just guidance is my guess) at winter to wear masks and avoid crowds and public transport. Instead, the massive strain the health service is due to come under from covid-restrictions-caused postponed treatments combined with the normal seasonal surge in the winter is what will lead to the reintroduced guidance.

    I would really like to see obesity treated as a big public health issue to resolve post-covid, with public awareness campaigns about the dangers of being overweight combined with health guidelines on eating better, maybe some initiatives to promote healthier lifestyles etc. It is far more sustainable and would be more effective to target the problem rather than by telling people to just socially distance and wear masks every winter.

    Sure. Obesity is a big health issue. You're free to advocate for that if you want.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    Sure. Obesity is a big health issue. You're free to advocate for that if you want.

    A big health issue that is the result of marketing garbage as food.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    I could ask you the same question or you could ask Micky the same question.

    I'm just posting the actual scenarios which remain and the major outstanding question which remains unanswerable until next winter. it make little sense to ignore the likely outcomes.

    You can check my post history on this thread, the count is very low.
    You are just on a loop at this stage.
    So you constantly repeat something that neither you or anyone else can answer without the aid of a crystal ball. Yeah makes sense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    You can check my post history on this thread, the count is very low.
    You are just on a loop at this stage.
    So you constantly repeat something that neither you or anyone else can answer without the aid of a crystal ball. Yeah makes sense.

    I only post it because it's relevant to the thread title and the question about when this will end.

    It's clear that some people only want to consider the best case scenario. Only one poster was honest enough to say that's what they're doing.

    What's your issue with discussing the fact that we don't know what will happen next winter. You don't seem to have any issue with posters who say it will definitely end this summer, even though you acknowledge in the post above that we don't know. Why is that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,168 ✭✭✭ypres5


    I only post it because it's relevant to the thread title and the question about when this will end.

    It's clear that some people only want to consider the best case scenario. Only one poster was honest enough to say that's what they're doing.

    What's your issue with discussing the fact that we don't know what will happen next winter. You don't seem to have any issue with posters who say it will definitely end this summer, even though you acknowledge in the post above that we don't know. Why is that?

    because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    ypres5 wrote: »
    because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario

    Well the poster acknowledged that we would need a "crystal ball" to know what will happen next winter. So they certainly don't think it's that clear cut.

    The question about what happens next winter is based on having most of the adult population vaccinated and no restrictions. What happens? We don't know yet. The urge to dismiss anything except the best case scenario is tempting and understandable , but not sensible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    ypres5 wrote: »
    because we are currently rolling out 3 highly effective vaccines soon to become 4. theres a basis behind his argument while you're just waffling about a what if scenario

    Ignorance of previous pandemics springs to mind aswell.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Do you not get fed up repeating the same stuff every 15 to 20 minutes?

    Yeah there’s an obsession of restrictions next winter, it’s like they are hoping there is. iMO lockdowns will be over once vaccinated. Some people don’t want to let that go.

    I’ll never eat waffles again, this thread has put me off them :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/immunity-from-covid-19-lasts-up-to-six-months-after-infection-hiqa-1.4504198
    Immunity after Covid-19 infection can last up to six months, the State’s health watchdog has advised.

    This is twice the 12-week period that currently applies as guidance in Ireland.

    “We have advised Nphet presumptive immunity should be extended to six months post-infection. The risk of re-infection with Sars-CoV-2 is low and no evidence was found to suggest that immunity wanes over this period,” said Dr Máirín Ryan, Hiqa’s deputy chief executive and director of health technology assessment.

    It is of course qualified by what might happen with new variants but what is also important to note is that the 6 month period they have stated is a minimum period. There is no evidence that after 6 months a whole lot changes. As such, this really puts into perspective that the actual number of infections being far higher than our official tally should create even more momentum towards reopening. It potentially reduces vaccination targets and creates an incentive to push for widespread Antigen testing in order to see how many less people might need to be vaccinated than have been planned for.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Ignorance of previous pandemics springs to mind aswell.

    I was told to "get over" what happened this Christmas just gone, as if it was irrelevant.

    Lads I get that you're reluctant to consider anything except the best case scenario. It's clear that's what's happening because you're taking no issue with people speculating or pretending to know things you want to believe (best case scenario where things will go back to normal in the summer and remain normal) but when I suggest that we don't actually know whether things will be great in winter or if things won't go well, then it's dismissed by various posters as "speculation" "waffle" and needing a "crystal ball" to know what will happen so not worth considering. But none of these defences are used when someone says things will go back to normal and restrictions will never be needed again.

    It's fine to not want to think about anything except the best case scenario, but why bother top engage in a discussion if you're going to dismiss anything except the best case?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Yeah there’s an obsession of restrictions next winter, it’s like they are hoping there is. iMO lockdowns will be over once vaccinated. Some people don’t want to let that go.

    I’ll never eat waffles again, this thread has put me off them :pac:

    I certainly don't want restrictions next winter. But that doesn't mean I discount the possibility of them happening. It's a matter of distinguishing between what I want to happen from the reality of the possibilities of what might happen. And at the moment we don't know whether things will go to the best case scenario or not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    I was told to "get over" what happened this Christmas just gone, as if it was irrelevant.

    Lads I get that you're reluctant to consider anything except the best case scenario. It's clear that's what's happening because you're taking no issue with people speculating or pretending to know things you want to believe (best case scenario where things will go back to normal in the summer and remain normal) but when I suggest that we don't actually know whether things will be great in winter or if things won't go well, then it's dismissed by various posters as "speculation" "waffle" and needing a "crystal ball" to know what will happen so not worth considering. But none of these defences are used when someone says things will go back to normal and restrictions will never be needed again.

    It's fine to not want to think about anything except the best case scenario, but why bother top engage in a discussion if you're going to dismiss anything except the best case?

    My only suggestion to you is to try to learn a little pandemic history. They don't last forever, people move on.
    As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later. I'm amazed people were shocked at what happened.
    Nothing further to say about it.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,561 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    I certainly don't want restrictions next winter. But that doesn't mean I discount the possibility of them happening. It's a matter of distinguishing between what I want to happen from the reality of the possibilities of what might happen. And at the moment we don't know whether things will go to the best case scenario or not.

    Yes but the data emerging suggests that once the masses are inoculated restrictions are unlikely to continue going forward, by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick especially if it’s true about the transmission cut by 60/70%. We should know more about that soon when we get more data.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    My only suggestion to you is to try to learn a little pandemic history. They don't last forever, people move on.
    As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later. I'm amazed people were shocked at what happened.
    Nothing further to say about it.

    Have you mistaken me for someone who suggested this pandemic will last forever or that people will not go back to normal?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,982 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    When we do reopen we don't need big mouths like Leo coming out saying stuff again like 'another full lockdown could be weeks away' etc


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,977 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    As for Christmas not discussing other than to say locking down people and depriving them of socialisation for 6 weeks and then reopening with the caveat of closing again less than a month later.

    The price of Christmas is where we are now as you well know because you were warned in advance, even by the govt.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Best case and worst case scenarios. I can Google too and am well aware of the challenges ahead. For me considering a situation where the virus mutates to such an extent that it evades the vaccines and we are in and out of lockdown is just......I can't. It's something I can discuss intellectually but I can't dwell on that outcome.

    Instead I focus on being positive restrictions will ease late this year to such an extent that our lives are almost normal. In 2022 we will see a return to 2019 life.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Yes but the data emerging suggests that once the masses are inoculated restrictions are unlikely to continue going forward, by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick especially if it’s true about the transmission cut by 60/70%. We should know more about that soon when we get more data.

    You're extrapolating too much from the data we have. The data doesn't say anything about restrictions likelihood, it's about transmissions and hospitalisations and deaths, for countries while in lockdown conditions.

    When you say that "by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick. What exactly is "too many" and do you think your "too many" is the same as Micheal Martin's too many?

    Fact is that I doubt you and MM would agree on the meaning of "too many" and we don't know how it will work out when most adults are vaccinated in winter and we don't have any restrictions. Maybe it will be fine and the relevant numbers will stay low. Maybe it won't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    When we do reopen we don't need big mouths like Leo coming out saying stuff again like 'another full lockdown could be weeks away' etc

    When did he say that?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Best case and worst case scenarios. I can Google too and am well aware of the challenges ahead. For me considering a situation where the virus mutates to such an extent that it evades the vaccines and we are in and out of lockdown is just......I can't. It's something I can discuss intellectually but I can't dwell on that outcome.

    Instead I focus on being positive restrictions will ease late this year to such an extent that our lives are almost normal. In 2022 we will see a return to 2019 life.

    That's fine. It really is fine. Do whatever helps to get you through this tough time.

    But why go to a thread dedicated to discussing the situation if you can only intellectually consider one of the possible outcomes?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    The price of Christmas is where we are now as you well know because you were warned in advance, even by the govt.

    Nphet bounced the government into a 6 week closure 9 weeks before Christmas. It was beyond stupid and neither you or anyone else will convince me otherwise.
    As I said to the other poster. I'm discussing it no further.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭JDD


    Have you mistaken me for someone who suggested this pandemic will last forever or that people will not go back to normal?

    Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

    A. Do you expect that, come October, a good chunk of the population will yet be offered a vaccine?

    Or

    B. If they are offered a vaccine, do you think a good chunk will not take it up?

    Or

    C. In a situation where 80%+ of the country is vaccinated, do you foresee that the virus will continue to circulate among the unvaccinated population (which will majority be under-18s) entailing hospitalisations to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

    Or

    D. Do you think that the virus will continue to circulate among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated entailing hospitalisations from both cohorts to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

    Or

    E. If it is none of the above, are you basing your middle-case/worst-case scenario on vaccine resistant variants?

    Just interested. I don't think I'm immediately going to a best-case scenario. Everything that has happened so far, apart from the ****show that is the vaccine supply, has been telegraphed a mile off to all but the most blinkered. I'm wondering why now - after researching the vaccines and possibility of variants - that what I see as a realistic end to this is considered the best case scenario. I feel my view is very much grounded in reality, but I'm open to being educated.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That's fine. It really is fine. Do whatever helps to get you through this tough time.

    But why go to a thread dedicated to discussing the situation if you can only intellectually consider one of the possible outcomes?

    I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

    How are you finding it all El_Dude?


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭francogarbanzo


    gozunda wrote: »
    Wow abusive relationship infograhic - we've reached new heights :rolleyes:

    Chsxt not this ****e again. Bar the extensive hyperbole in that - eg "make it illegal to leave your house except to exercise, buy groceries, or for medical reasons" That's simply bs. You can leave your house for work and for a long list of other reasons. Of course there's been restrictions- we're in the midst of a pandemic - and still mopping up after the fun and frolics of Christmas. Our restrictions have been less than the UK but noooooo we're the worst in the world and its neeeeever going to end!

    There is no level zero because that means we're back to normal with covid at worst existing as a background disease which will be primarilly controlled by vaccination

    So yeah even more desperate doom and gloom and wailing we're in permanent lockdown'!

    Go on then. Refute it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    JDD wrote: »
    Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

    A. Do you expect that, come October, a good chunk of the population will yet be offered a vaccine?

    Or

    B. If they are offered a vaccine, do you think a good chunk will not take it up?

    Or

    C. In a situation where 80%+ of the country is vaccinated, do you foresee that the virus will continue to circulate among the unvaccinated population (which will majority be under-18s) entailing hospitalisations to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

    Or

    D. Do you think that the virus will continue to circulate among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated entailing hospitalisations from both cohorts to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

    Or

    E. If it is none of the above, are you basing your middle-case/worst-case scenario on vaccine resistant variants?

    Just interested. I don't think I'm immediately going to a best-case scenario. Everything that has happened so far, apart from the ****show that is the vaccine supply, has been telegraphed a mile off to all but the most blinkered. I'm wondering why now - after researching the vaccines and possibility of variants - that what I see as a realistic end to this is considered the best case scenario. I feel my view is very much grounded in reality, but I'm open to being educated.

    The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

    A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
    B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
    C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
    D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
    E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

    How are you finding it all El_Dude?

    You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

    I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

    I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.

    Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,751 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,944 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

    Life is personal


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    AdamD wrote: »
    This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

    Ginger n' Lemon hasn't posted in a few days but Micky has taken over their slot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33 SilentGreenx32


    AdamD wrote: »
    This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

    Exactly. Arguing for arguments sake.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,569 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

    Has it lifted some people up? In what ways?

    How are you finding it?


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