When will it all end?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You're extrapolating too much from the data we have. The data doesn't say anything about restrictions likelihood, it's about transmissions and hospitalisations and deaths, for countries while in lockdown conditions.

When you say that "by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick. What exactly is "too many" and do you think your "too many" is the same as Micheal Martin's too many?

Fact is that I doubt you and MM would agree on the meaning of "too many" and we don't know how it will work out when most adults are vaccinated in winter and we don't have any restrictions. Maybe it will be fine and the relevant numbers will stay low. Maybe it won't.

Round and round we go. I’ll make it simple and more straight forward for you. We can keep going all day if you like. Vaccines work and prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death. There’s a good chance prevents a lot of transmission.

You have the masses inoculated = no hospitalizations and deaths = little or no restrictions or lockdowns.

JDD

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

No, I do get what you're saying El Dude.

There are a lot of things we don't know yet. We don't know whether supply will genuinely pick up to a point that we have enough vaccines to vaccinated 80% of the adult population by September. We don't know if we even do get those vaccines whether the infrastructure is there to get them out and into peoples arms. While if you had to take a bet on whether or not we'll get a large uptake of the vaccine, you'd probably bet on yes, the unknown factor is the 18 to 35 year olds.

If we do get to herd immunity I'm not really envisioning more restrictions. I simply can't see a scenario where even if the virus rips through the population that there will be a level of hospitalisations that will warrant reintroduction of restrictions. It will rip through the under-18s, but the level of their hospitalisations is miniscule, even with being in school from September to Christmas. It will rip though the 20% (maybe more? maybe less?) unvaccinated adults, but that would be a population of 800k where 80% of their close contacts are vaccinated. But I suppose, like anything, it's a possibility that there will be an unknown variable here that ends up with more hospitalisations than we might expect.

I'm not really countenancing vaccine-resistant variants here. OF COURSE there will be restrictions, probably lockdowns, if we get one of those variants, and for a lot longer than just next winter. But that seems to be a separate discussion to me, a hypothetical discussion along the lines of what if another pandemic happens.

If we take the possibility of vaccine resistant variants out of the discussion, what remains is when we think this will end, taking into account our current situation and the facts that we know right now.

the kelt

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

And then thinks the person you’re talking about is someone else

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Round and round we go. I’ll make simple and more straight forward to you. We can keep going all day if you like. Vaccines work and prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death. There’s a good chance prevents a lot of transmission.

You have the masses inoculated = no hospitalizations and deaths = little or no restrictions.

Do you want me to point out he error in that post? They're subtle but they're significant.

Vaccines work, but they don't prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death: They reduce it at a population level, they do not prevent it. If they prevented it then there wouldn't be any issue about next winter. To what extent will they reduce hospitalisation and death? We don't know yet. Do you know to what extent they will reduce hospitalisations and death in winter with a population without restrictions?

IF we have "no hospitalizations and deaths" then obviously there wold be no need for restrictions. But the first part isn't known yet.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you want me to point out he error in that post? They're subtle but they're significant.

Vaccines work, but they don't prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death: They reduce it at a population level, they do not prevent it. If they prevented it then there wouldn't be any issue about next winter. To what extent will they reduce hospitalisation and death? We don't know yet. Do you know to what extent they will reduce hospitalisations and death in winter with a population without restrictions?

IF we have "no hospitalizations and deaths" then obviously there wold be no need for restrictions. But the first part isn't known yet.

Yes they do. You need to research more on the vaccines. You didn’t even know that we’ll be vaccinating 250k a week, shows your knowledge on the subject.

Vaccines will reduce the hospitalizations and deaths to the point we’ll be going back to normal. Full stop.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Has it lifted some people up? In what ways?

How are you finding it?

Gave them a renewed sense of what's important to them and also has taken away some pressures such a commuting and allowed for spending more time with family. I think lots of people have found positives in it. That doesn't mean they don't want their old life to return, just that adjusting to this one hasn't been much of a challenge.

I'm up and down with it. Some days I feel my life is like a kind of shadow and other days I'm positive. There's a sense of loss definitely and now and then I feel trapped but mostly I'm ok

Hellrazer

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

This is the problem - there are too many dont knows with this virus. No one knows whats going to happen with it in the furture.

JDD

I have a colleague at work who wants the option to work full time from home when restrictions lift (while attending the office for essential purposes). She has found lockdown a revelation - she loves the extra time back and the fact that she can drop off/pick up kids, and doesn't miss the office at all. Now, I'm not saying that she'd choose to be in lockdown forever over being back in the office five days a week with everything open, but definitely lockdown has been mostly positive for her.

Plumbthedepths

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

El_Duderino 09

JDD wrote: »

No, I do get what you're saying El Dude.

There are a lot of things we don't know yet. We don't know whether supply will genuinely pick up to a point that we have enough vaccines to vaccinated 80% of the adult population by September. We don't know if we even do get those vaccines whether the infrastructure is there to get them out and into peoples arms. While if you had to take a bet on whether or not we'll get a large uptake of the vaccine, you'd probably bet on yes, the unknown factor is the 18 to 35 year olds.

If we do get to herd immunity I'm not really envisioning more restrictions. I simply can't see a scenario where even if the virus rips through the population that there will be a level of hospitalisations that will warrant reintroduction of restrictions. It will rip through the under-18s, but the level of their hospitalisations is miniscule, even with being in school from September to Christmas. It will rip though the 20% (maybe more? maybe less?) unvaccinated adults, but that would be a population of 800k where 80% of their close contacts are vaccinated. But I suppose, like anything, it's a possibility that there will be an unknown variable here that ends up with more hospitalisations than we might expect.

I'm not really countenancing vaccine-resistant variants here. OF COURSE there will be restrictions, probably lockdowns, if we get one of those variants, and for a lot longer than just next winter. But that seems to be a separate discussion to me, a hypothetical discussion along the lines of what if another pandemic happens.

If we take the possibility of vaccine resistant variants out of the discussion, what remains is when we think this will end, taking into account our current situation and the facts that we know right now.

I'm not really sure where we disagree. I don't pretend to know about vaccine supply thought I'm assuming it will pick up. Will it pick up enough to have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by September or October or in time for winter? I don't know. I presume it will but I don't know.

Isn't herd immunity kind of definitionally the point at which we wouldn't need restrictions? But i don't think anyone is suggesting we will reach herd immunity (estimated at 70-80% of total population) before winter. They have started vaccination testing on some ages younger than 18 but they don't expect to have approval to start vaccinating some under 18s until the end of they year.

The bit in bold is the question which remains unanswered. You assert that it will be minuscule but that doesn't mean that we know the answer to it. IF it's miniscule, then there's no problem. But simply saying it will be miniscule doesn't mean it will be minuscule.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yes they do. You need to research more on the vaccines. You didn’t even know that we’ll be vaccinating 250k a week, shows your knowledge on the subject.

Vaccines will reduce the hospitalizations and deaths to the point we’ll be going back to normal. Full stop.

Well, the link you gave me said they "could" reach 250,000 per week. Let's not overstate the case by saying they "will" reach 250,000 per week.

Well, If you've written "full stop" at the end of the sentence then I suppose the issue can't be discussed any further. In reality, only time will tell whether things go great in the winter or if they don't go to plan and we need restrictions again. Hopefully the former.

El_Duderino 09

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is the problem - there are too many dont knows with this virus. No one knows whats going to happen with it in the furture.

That's not far off precisely what I've been saying.

mightyreds

CDC allowing vaccinated people meet indoors without masks and social distancing, those unknowns seem to be unravelling quickly

El_Duderino 09

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

That's brilliant news!

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Well, the link you gave me said they "could" reach 250,000 per week. Let's not overstate the case by saying they "will" reach 250,000 per week.

Well, If you've written "full stop" at the end of the sentence then I suppose the issue can't be discussed any further. In reality, only time will tell whether things go great in the winter or if they don't go to plan and we need restrictions again. Hopefully the former.

I say full stop with respect. With my own research and in my opinion lockdowns are coming to an end. Nothing is 100% set in stone but once we are all vaccinated lockdowms will become unlikely.

aido79

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

The only problem with that is that there are too many idiots in this country who will spoil it for everyone else by saying that they are vaccinated when they are actually anti vaccination and have no intention of getting the vaccine just so they can use it as a reason not to wear a mask. It will be a breach of their civil liberties if they are even questioned on it..

HansKroenke

aido79 wrote: »

The only problem with that is that there are too many idiots in this country who will spoil it for everyone else by saying that they are vaccinated when they are actually anti vaccination and have no intention of getting the vaccine just so they can use it as a reason not to wear a mask. It will be a breach of their civil liberties if they are even questioned on it..

Yeah, who cares about civil liberties?

aido79

HansKroenke wrote: »

Yeah, who cares about civil liberties?

I do. I just don't have a lot of time for self centred people who use it as an excuse to put others in danger.

HansKroenke

aido79 wrote: »

I do. I just don't have a lot of time for self centred people who use it as an excuse to put others in danger.

"Granny killers" is it?

Off your high horse.

aido79

HansKroenke wrote: »

"Granny killers" is it?

Off your high horse.

No just people, possibly like yourself, who don't believe mask wearing helps stop the spread of covid19.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The price of Christmas is where we are now as you well know because you were warned in advance, even by the govt.

looks like the 3rd wave was silently wreaking havoc long before Christmas. In fact it started as early as 22 November. So those of you who have being blaming the madness of the Irish out partying and killing their elderly relatives need to stop and maybe need to apologise. This is a pandemic and no amount of finger pointing and blaming would have stopped it. It seems to have hit peak point right in line with our annual wave of flu..... ironic that isnt it?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/devastating-third-wave-of-covid-19-began-before-lockdown-lifted-for-christmas-new-report-reveals-40171776.html

Natterjack from Kerry

Mr. Karate wrote: »

You're given a certificate to prove you're vaccinated. Once I'm vaccinated and I can prove it then I'm not wearing them anymore. The Mask Gestapo who want us to wear them forever just so they can feel safe can do one. Let them move to China if they want to wear them forever.

The mask is to stop your spreading covid to others. How could you be so selfish as to wear one as long as you are no vaccinated, and then once you are, to hell with any one else. Great attitude.

Tazz T

Deleted User wrote: »

looks like the 3rd wave was silently wreaking havoc long before Christmas. In fact it started as early as 22 November. So those of you who have being blaming the madness of the Irish out partying and killing their elderly relatives need to stop and maybe need to apologise. This is a pandemic and no amount of finger pointing and blaming would have stopped it. It seems to have hit peak point right in line with our annual wave of flu..... ironic that isnt it?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/devastating-third-wave-of-covid-19-began-before-lockdown-lifted-for-christmas-new-report-reveals-40171776.html

You would have to conjecture that a lot of the third wave was contributable to the UK variant hitting us earlier because of our obvious links with the UK. Third waves only occurring now in Europe are being attributed to the very same more infectious variant - even in places that have been in lockdown as long as us.

Mr. Karate

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

The mask is to stop your spreading covid to others. How could you be so selfish as to wear one as long as you are no vaccinated, and then once you are, to hell with any one else. Great attitude.

Its just as selfish to expect people to keep wearing them just to accommodate you.

TonyMaloney

[Deleted User] wrote: »

looks like the 3rd wave was silently wreaking havoc long before Christmas. In fact it started as early as 22 November. So those of you who have being blaming the madness of the Irish out partying and killing their elderly relatives need to stop and maybe need to apologise. This is a pandemic and no amount of finger pointing and blaming would have stopped it. It seems to have hit peak point right in line with our annual wave of flu..... ironic that isnt it?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/devastating-third-wave-of-covid-19-began-before-lockdown-lifted-for-christmas-new-report-reveals-40171776.html

I've no idea how you've come to the conclusion that what happened at Christmas was inevitable.

It certainly isn't implied from that article

HansKroenke

aido79 wrote: »

No just people, possibly like yourself, who don't believe mask wearing helps stop the spread of covid19.

"tinfoil hatter" and "conspiracy theorist" labels being insinuated now, these attacks are like toys being thrown from a pram when you are called out for being smug, self-righteous, pompous but ultimately ignorant.

mightyreds

mightyreds wrote: »

CDC allowing vaccinated people meet indoors without masks and social distancing, those unknowns seem to be unravelling quickly

The word your looking for is resolving not unravelling

Silentcorner

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've no idea how you've come to the conclusion that what happened at Christmas was inevitable.

It certainly isn't implied from that article

Where is the nearest country to us that managed to avoid a winter surge?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

looks like the 3rd wave was silently wreaking havoc long before Christmas. In fact it started as early as 22 November. So those of you who have being blaming the madness of the Irish out partying and killing their elderly relatives need to stop and maybe need to apologise. This is a pandemic and no amount of finger pointing and blaming would have stopped it. It seems to have hit peak point right in line with our annual wave of flu..... ironic that isnt it?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/devastating-third-wave-of-covid-19-began-before-lockdown-lifted-for-christmas-new-report-reveals-40171776.html

I count 3 threads now where the misunderstandings of a journalist on what are essentially periods of time for reporting purposes, are presented as evidence of a surge starting on nov 22nd

Natterjack from Kerry

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Its just as selfish to expect people to keep wearing them just to accommodate you.

It isnt to accomodate me. Its to avoid you spreading covid to others.

Are you for real ???

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Its just as selfish to expect people to keep wearing them just to accommodate you.

Is this the theory that all altruism is essentially selfish in that the altruistic act is purely for the individuals ego, or is it an extremely bad point where person a wearing a mask because they don’t want to spread Covid should they have it is the same a person b who doesn’t want to wear a mask because “nazi mask gestapo”?

Doctor Jimbob

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

It isnt to accomodate me. Its to avoid you spreading covid to others.

Are you for real ???

There's increasing evidence that vaccination helps to stop spread. I'm not an anti mask type by any stretch of the imagination (in fact I'd be happy enough wearing one in the winter in future to reduce my chances of spreading any kind of respiratory virus), but calling people selfish for not wearing masks after being vaccinated is a bit much.

Natterjack from Kerry

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

There's increasing evidence that vaccination helps to stop spread. I'm not an anti mask type by any stretch of the imagination (in fact I'd be happy enough wearing one in the winter in future to reduce my chances of spreading any kind of respiratory virus), but calling people selfish for not wearing masks after being vaccinated is a bit much.

Yes, possible evidence. That it 'helps' to stop it. For the sake of a few months until every one is vaccinated, its hardly that much imposition to expect people to continue to protect each other. Unless you are a selfish git I guess.

Doctor Jimbob

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Yes, possible evidence. That it 'helps' to stop it. For the sake of a few months until every one is vaccinated, its hardly that much imposition to expect people to continue to protect each other. Unless you are a selfish git I guess.

I don't know, masks seem to bother some people more than others. Everyone is different. I've gotten used to them myself and like I said, happy enough to keep wearing one but I can see why others would feel differently.

drunkmonkey

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

The mask is to stop your spreading covid to others.

1% possibly by 2% indoors and that's cases not ICU admissions, definitely not worth the disconnect.

In what part of the way back to normal should they go?

gozunda

francogarbanzo wrote: »

Go on then. Refute it.

Refute bs? How do you do than then?

Natterjack from Kerry

drunkmonkey wrote: »

1% possibly by 2% indoors and that's cases not ICU admissions, definitely not worth the disconnect.

In what part of the way back to normal should they go?

100% vaccinated.

Scotty #

JDD wrote: »

Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

You mean apart form the medical experts, WHO, scientists, doctors, virologists, immunologists. health advisers, the UK Roadmap, and world leaders stating it? Hmmm, call it a hunch.

Scotty #

Mr. Karate wrote: »

You're given a certificate to prove you're vaccinated.

No you're not.

But I'm not surprised you'd say you are. It's just another example of misinformed shyite talk that's rampant throughout this thread. In 16 years on boards I've never seen a thread with so much inaccuracies, misinformation, and out right lies declared as proven facts.

Protip: when you post ****e on boards and 12 people like your post, it doesn't validate your 'fact'. It just means there's 12 more loons on the thread.

The whole thread belongs in Conspiracy Theories.

None of us know what's coming. None of us. We can only hope.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

looks like the 3rd wave was silently wreaking havoc long before Christmas. In fact it started as early as 22 November. So those of you who have being blaming the madness of the Irish out partying and killing their elderly relatives need to stop and maybe need to apologise. This is a pandemic and no amount of finger pointing and blaming would have stopped it. It seems to have hit peak point right in line with our annual wave of flu..... ironic that isnt it?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/devastating-third-wave-of-covid-19-began-before-lockdown-lifted-for-christmas-new-report-reveals-40171776.html

What if mitigation measures make little difference in the long term and the highly transmissible virus, not people, is to blame after all.

FintanMcluskey

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don't know, masks seem to bother some people more than others. Everyone is different. I've gotten used to them myself and like I said, happy enough to keep wearing one but I can see why others would feel differently.

I find them a great nose warmer. I even wear it walking outdoors in the cold

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

and out right lies declared as proven facts.

You should calm down, they say high blood pressure could be an underlying issue if you catch covid. Be careful there now.

So what lies declared as proven fact were posted? I’m curious to know what they are.

francogarbanzo

gozunda wrote: »

Refute bs? How do you do than then?

If it was refutable, you’d refute it. You can’t though, can you? It’s usually pretty easy to refute BS. That’s the nature of BS.

Hobgoblin11

Scotty # wrote: »

No you're not.

But I'm not surprised you'd say you are. It's just another example of misinformed shyite talk that's rampant throughout this thread. In 16 years on boards I've never seen a thread with so much inaccuracies, misinformation, and out right lies declared as proven facts.

Protip: when you post ****e on boards and 12 people like your post, it doesn't validate your 'fact'. It just means there's 12 more loons on the thread.

The whole thread belongs in Conspiracy Theories.

None of us know what's coming. None of us. We can only hope.

if you are a healthcare worker you get a cert

aido79

Mr. Karate wrote: »

You're given a certificate to prove you're vaccinated. Once I'm vaccinated and I can prove it then I'm not wearing them anymore. The Mask Gestapo who want us to wear them forever just so they can feel safe can do one. Let them move to China if they want to wear them forever.

I'm just saying that many people will use the fact that other people are walking around without masks because they have been vaccinated to abandon masks wearing because they don't agree with it even though they have no intention of getting vaccinated ever.

aido79

HansKroenke wrote: »

"tinfoil hatter" and "conspiracy theorist" labels being insinuated now, these attacks are like toys being thrown from a pram when you are called out for being smug, self-righteous, pompous but ultimately ignorant.

The only thing I'm insinuating is the possibility that you are against mask wearing.
Your rant is just paranoia. I didn't mention anything about tinfoil hats or conspiracy theorists.

PTH2009

So on the Claire Byrne show they done a magic poll on 1000 aldults 'should music festivals go ahead this year if a large Majority of the population has been vaccined ?'

Yes- 33%
No- 49%
Don't Know- 12%

NPHET be very happy with that

Micky 32

PTH2009 wrote: »

So on the Claire Byrne show they done a magic poll on 1000 aldults 'should music festivals go ahead this year if a large Majority of the population has been vaccined ?'

Yes- 33%
No- 49%
Don't Know- 12%

NPHET be very happy with that

I think as society opens up when vaccinated i have a feeling those figures might start changing a bit.

Frozen Veg

PTH2009 wrote: »

So on the Claire Byrne show they done a magic poll on 1000 aldults 'should music festivals go ahead this year if a large Majority of the population has been vaccined ?'

Yes- 33%
No- 49%
Don't Know- 12%

NPHET be very happy with that

Like most things these days, the poll doesn't add up.

PTH2009

Micky 32 wrote: »

I think as society opens up when vaccinated i have a feeling those figures might start changing a bit.

Some professor on now saying 80% of the population will have to be vaccinated for festivals/gigs to return

CB is bloody thrilled with the poll result