When will it all end?

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

The endless UK is best - is rubbish

Currently the UK still have a much higher rate of infection per 100,000
Ireland 4,273.49
UK 6,058.89

That despite them having had one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe.

Are the UK miles ahead in terms of vaccination? That's all I'm talking about.

gozunda

paw patrol wrote: »

they've a much older population than their neighbours. But it's more accurate to compare to a few countries to see how bad or good somebody is.
Norway could be just better than everybody.

We can argue all day on statistic - countering one with another which is good fun tbh

But ultimately we've had lockdowns for a year now they have had none and over that year they are middle in all Europe for deaths. They haven't butchered their society like we have and the end result isn't much different.
Was it worth it for Ireland? I don't believe so (putting it mildly)

We could have managed on minimal restrictions and focused on better hygiene and health.
throw in some work form home type easy measures to keep the buses/trains quieter - i'm sure there are more easy to implement stuff like that. but allow people to do their own risk assessment and live their lives.

It remains Sweden is in deep dodo with Covid and their infection rates remain very high compared to most other EU countries.

Sweden have had increasing levels of restrictions since they've stopped the 'do nothing" approach.

As to Ireland and Sweden economy

These from The November 2020 European Commission’s 2020 Economic Forecasts

Ireland’s economy is projected to contract by 2.25% in 2020, before growing by 3% in 2021

SWEDEN In 2020, economic growth is expected to fall to -5.3% before recovering to 3.1% in 2021.

This is what actually happened

Ireland’s economy was the only one to grow in the EU last year, economic figures show, boosted by medical and pharmaceutical exports.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-only-eu-economy-to-grow-in-2020-1.4482192

And Sweden is a much much wealthier country than Ireland

The only thing which has kept their heads above water - are the resources they have to throw at their health services.

Tazz T

ShineOn7 wrote: »

To get the vaccine as a "new UK resident"?

Er

Nah

Zero chance of this happening

This is happening. I could get it next month if I wanted. I have a doctor in the north, but I'm not allowed to travel. I know people living in border areas who have been vaxxed up north.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are the UK miles ahead in terms of vaccination? That's all I'm talking about.

Yeah - they're the outlier as detailed because they have secured preferential deals over the EU and are manufacturing their own.

We are tied to our EU allocation. In Europe our vaccine rollout is at the higher end compared to other countries.

And that's where we are ...

beauf

paw patrol wrote: »

they've a much older population than their neighbours. ...

% over 65

21.9 Finland
19.9 Sweden
19.6 Denmark
19.1 Ireland
18.3 UK
17.2 Norway

I'm not going to pick apart the rest. They may only did marginally better economically. It looked they were going to recover better, then their 3rd spike exploded and herd immunity failed. So we won't know economically for a good while yet. But their economy isn't dependent on the same things ours is. So our outcomes in that regard were never going to be the same. Likewise comparing it to some of the economically broken countries in Europe even before Covid has little value.

As you say, there's little to be gained arguing about it. Get a groundswell of people in favor of repeating Xmas spike indefinitely. The Govt will likely give in to public pressure.

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

And what difference will it make to you if you have the vaccine and live down here?

My dad is in his 60s with emphysema and my mother is currently getting radiation therapy for cancer. It would be nice to see a little bit more of them. I also have asthma which is far less important but I'd probably get the vaccine up North because of that quicker than either of my parents will down here with their far more serious illnesses/conditions.

Irish Stones

Scotty # wrote: »

The only way all restrictions will be lifted is when the virus is eradicated from the community. Until then we'll still have masks and limits on capacity on indoor gatherings. Even with 100% vaccine these restrictions will still apply.

[...]

Restrictions are here for the foreseeable I'm afraid. They'll be eased off slowly and gently until we find a balance.

In my opinion, lots of measures we are currently taking to counter the spreading of the virus will stay forever, or at least for many many years.
Masks, social distancing, hand sanitizers, are relatively inexpensive and have proved to work rather effectively, so why drop them even in the future? They will prevent any possible future airborne disease.
Temperature scanning at the entrance of premises and screens at counters - shops and businesses have invested thousands to have them, will they just store them in the back shed or will they keep using them in the future?

Once that we get used to all this stuff, we won't even bother whether they are in place or not.

Tazz T

Deleted User wrote: »

Are the UK miles ahead in terms of vaccination? That's all I'm talking about.

Bojo was saying yesterday that they expect the entire adult population to be vaxxed by end of July. Sounds optimistic, but at least they're going for it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/21/uk-speeds-up-vaccinations-all-adults-get-1st-jab-by-july-31.html

Scotty #

Deleted User wrote: »

My dad is in his 60s with emphysema and my mother is currently getting radiation therapy for cancer. It would be nice to see a little bit more of them.

You being vaccinated will not reduce the risk to them. They need to be vaccinated for that.

Le Bruise

Irish Stones wrote: »

In my opinion, lots of measures we are currently taking to counter the spreading of the virus will stay forever, or at least for many many years.
Masks, social distancing, hand sanitizers, are relatively inexpensive and have proved to work rather effectively, so why drop them even in the future? They will prevent any possible future airborne disease.
Temperature scanning at the entrance of premises and screens at counters - shops and businesses have invested thousands to have them, will they just store them in the back shed or will they keep using them in the future?

Once that we get used to all this stuff, we won't even bother whether they are in place or not.

Social Distancing is not 'relatively inexpensive'. Hospitality, sporting events and concerts all require crowds to be financially viable. As soon as it is safe to do so, it will be gone.

Irish Stones

Le Bruise wrote: »

Social Distancing is not 'relatively inexpensive'. Hospitality, sporting events and concerts all require crowds to be financially viable. As soon as it is safe to do so, it will be gone.

I'm sure they will find a way to balance it with the need of safety. A few important people in the world stated that our lifestyle will need a deep change, and I think that they were referring to that industry too.
The queues outside shops with floor markers and things like this will stay, in my opinion.

Tazz T

Tazz T wrote: »

Bojo was saying yesterday that they expect the entire adult population to be vaxxed by end of July. Sounds optimistic, but at least they're going for it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/21/uk-speeds-up-vaccinations-all-adults-get-1st-jab-by-july-31.html

Adult population around 55 million so 110 million doses needed (if everyone would take it).

5 months, ~150 days. Currently doing around 400k per day which would be another 60 million doses on top of about 17 million they've already done. So at current rates they'll hit 87 million by that point. They only need a small increase in their current rate to hit that target.

Le Bruise

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'm sure they will find a way to balance it with the need of safety. A few important people in the world stated that our lifestyle will need a deep change, and I think that they were referring to that industry too.
The queues outside shops with floor markers and things like this will stay, in my opinion.

Agree to disagree on this one, you can't have a socially distanced gig.

I believe the long term changes relate to greater numbers working from home, hand hygiene and cough etiquette...none of that a bad thing.

hynesie08

Tazz T wrote: »

Bojo was saying yesterday that they expect the entire adult population to be vaxxed by end of July. Sounds optimistic, but at least they're going for it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/21/uk-speeds-up-vaccinations-all-adults-get-1st-jab-by-july-31.html

First jab only, at a million a month, we should actually have pulled in front of them by then.

All British adults will be offered a first dose of the coronavirus vaccine by July 31, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Sunday.

Multipass

gozunda wrote: »

They have one of the highest 14 day incidence rates in Europe from that link
They've had a raft of restrictions since they've ditched the 'do nothing' policy and allowing covid run rampant in nursing homes

Compared to other comparable Nordic countries they've done absolutely ****e. Even on an EU level from a new case comparison - they're still at the back of the class.

Comparing Sweden to its neighbours is just nonsense - they have far more immigration and dense low income housing. Norway is much richer, lower population density and not bound by EU rules regarding movement of people.

Silentcorner

Multipass wrote: »

Comparing Sweden to its neighbours is just nonsense - they have far more immigration and dense low income housing. Norway is much richer, lower population density and not bound by EU rules regarding movement of people.

They have also, to my knowledge, had softer flu seasons in recent years, which would mean an accumulation of aged and compromised immune systems than their neighbours...seems to be a pattern many don't factor in.

If they're saying first dose in the UK by the end of July then they must be planning to slow things down.

ujjjjjjjjj

Scotty # wrote: »

The only way all restrictions will be lifted is when the virus is eradicated from the community. Until then we'll still have masks and limits on capacity on indoor gatherings. Even with 100% vaccine these restrictions will still apply.

You seem to be underestimating the virus and overestimating the vaccine. The vaccine does not make you immune, it does not make you untransmissible. It simple reduced the infection - nothing more. People will still get sick but hopefully not as many will require hospitalisation. But, if you think you can drop all other restrictions and rely solely on the vaccine controlling the virus, well... then you've clearly no understanding of the vaccine or the virus.

We've already seen how many thousands can become infected per day when restrictions are eased (the vaccine won't stop this) and it only takes a very small % of those to require hospitalisation before we're all in Level5 again.

Restrictions are here for the foreseeable I'm afraid. They'll be eased off slowly and gently until we find a balance.

Look I respect your point of view but I just can't agree with you. This virus is endemic now and it is critical we understand that.

This virus being endemic will continue to spread and move around our society just like the flu does, it won't go away with vaccines but once hospitalisations and deaths are low we have to move on, stop testing, stop all restrictions and get on with life.

Any other approach guarantees we stay locked down to some extent forever.

Patches oHoulihan

Scotty # wrote: »

The only way all restrictions will be lifted is when the virus is eradicated from the community. Until then we'll still have masks and limits on capacity on indoor gatherings. Even with 100% vaccine these restrictions will still apply.

You seem to be underestimating the virus and overestimating the vaccine. The vaccine does not make you immune, it does not make you untransmissible. It simple reduced the infection - nothing more. People will still get sick but hopefully not as many will require hospitalisation. But, if you think you can drop all other restrictions and rely solely on the vaccine controlling the virus, well... then you've clearly no understanding of the vaccine or the virus.

We've already seen how many thousands can become infected per day when restrictions are eased (the vaccine won't stop this) and it only takes a very small % of those to require hospitalisation before we're all in Level5 again.

Restrictions are here for the foreseeable I'm afraid. They'll be eased off slowly and gently until we find a balance.

and how long is this balance going to take then?

People are about done with ****ing restrictions.
At this point just get back to life and let nature take its course

Martin567

Le Bruise wrote: »

Social Distancing is not 'relatively inexpensive'. Hospitality, sporting events and concerts all require crowds to be financially viable. As soon as it is safe to do so, it will be gone.

I agree 100%.

Whatever anyone's views on social distancing (I despise it), it is utterly mind boggling how anyone could describe it as relatively inexpensive.

Pretty much every restriction in place at the moment is there to facilitate social distancing. It impacts on business, sport, arts & culture, education right down the basics of going out for a meal or visiting friends and family. Once most of the population is vaccinated later in the year, social distancing needs to quickly become a thing of the past.

I do wonder if people who say things like this have any understanding of psychology. Presumably they want people to comply with existing measures and to get vaccinated? Do they not understand that suggesting mask wearing and social distancing will continue for years into the future will lead many people to see no point in maintaining the current levels of compliance or to bother getting vaccinated?

Patches oHoulihan

the kelt wrote: »

So getting back away from mystic meg land!

As the thread is titled, "when will it end"

Whats peoples thoughts as to tomorrows announcement.

Will it give us any indication as to when it might end?

Any indication as to when it might actually even ease a bit?

Or is it still a good bet to take the majority of European countries will ease and even end at some stage and add c. 4 to 6 weeks on top of that for Ireland if we are lucky?

I think it will be worse after the announcement. Relying on this Gov to give us anything other than a gloomy NPHET led report is too much to ask for.

We are all going to be locked up for years. The virus is here to stay. Vaccines dont and wont work. You can have a coffee with your neighbour in September. Next year.

But sure holdfirm etc etc. There is light at the end of the tunnel...as you approach the gates of Heaven!:rolleyes:

quokula

hynesie08 wrote: »

First jab only, at a million a month, we should actually have pulled in front of them by then.

Also, use of the word "offered"

There was a big song and dance in the UK media a few weeks ago that all care home residents had been offered their first dose. Then lots of stories started appearing from homes where they had indeed been offered a first dose, and residents had accepted, but they were still waiting for that dose to actually then be delivered with no clear timeline.

VG31

Martin567 wrote: »

I do wonder if people who say things like this have any understanding of psychology. Presumably they want people to comply with existing measures and to get vaccinated? Do they not understand that suggesting mask wearing and social distancing will continue for years into the future will lead many people to see no point in maintaining the current levels of compliance or to bother getting vaccinated?

Exactly. Saying that mask wearing and social distancing will continue even after vaccinations is essentially telling people that taking a vaccine is pointless.

ujjjjjjjjj

quokula wrote: »

Also, use of the word "offered"

There was a big song and dance in the UK media a few weeks ago that all care home residents had been offered their first dose. Then lots of stories started appearing from homes where they had indeed been offered a first dose, and residents had accepted, but they were still waiting for that dose to actually then be delivered with no clear timeline.

Stop the we are better than them stuff. The UK are miles ahead in the vaccine roleout. The first jab is the key one as it confers high levels of immunity and dramatically reduces your chances of ending up in hospital or worse.

The second jab think of it as a booster, not a big deal but a nice to have.

It is good news the UK are miles ahead for them, for us due to our shared border and close relationship.

Let's not turn this into some silly game and for those who undoubtedly are going to say 'well they are ones going on about it...' just ask yourself what would we be doing if we already had more than a third of our population over the age of 18 vaccinated. I have elderly inlaws in their 70's in the UK, aunts and uncles in their 60's and 70's and two younger family members with not particularly serious chronic health conditions and all have been vaccinated, several weeks ago. I also have other relations in their 50's perfectly healthy who will be getting vaccinated in the next week or two.

Well done the UK. Delighted for them and it holds our lot up to account too.

hynesie08

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Stop the we are better than them stuff. The UK are miles ahead in the vaccine roleout. The first jab is the key one as it confers high levels of immunity and dramatically reduces your chances of ending up in hospital or worse.

The second jab think of it as a booster, not a big deal but a nice to have.

It is good news the UK are miles ahead for them, for us due to our shared border and close relationship.

Let's not turn this into some silly game and for those who undoubtedly are going to say 'well they are ones going on about it...' just ask yourself what would we be doing if we already had more than a third of our population over the age of 18 vaccinated. I have elderly inlaws in their 70's in the UK, aunts and uncles in their 60's and 70's and two younger family members with not particularly serious chronic health conditions and all have been vaccinated, several weeks ago. I also have other relations in their 50's perfectly healthy who will be getting vaccinated in the next week or two.

Well done the UK. Delighted for them and it holds our lot up to account too.

I mean, the scientists who invented the vaccine disagree with you, but you do you.

mcsean2163

hynesie08 wrote: »

I mean, the scientists who invented the vaccine disagree with you, but you do you.

It's the same jab twice. The second jab increases the likelihood of an immune response to the vaccine.

That's the science. Do you have a new branch of science you'd like to share?

Irish Stones

Martin567 wrote: »

Do they not understand that suggesting mask wearing and social distancing will continue for years into the future will lead many people to see no point in maintaining the current levels of compliance or to bother getting vaccinated?

Dr Fauci has just said that mask wearing and social distancing will have to be maintained at least till the end of 2022, when we think that everybody in the world will be vaccinated.
I say, if these measures work, why drop them?

Mr. Karate

VG31 wrote: »

Exactly. Saying that mask wearing and social distancing will continue even after vaccinations is essentially telling people that taking a vaccine is pointless.

This is why I'm currently non-committal about getting it. Let's not kid ourselves, we will be locking down again Oct. No matter how many been vaccinated and how slowly re-open in the Summer. Plus Varadkar mentions that lockdowns go on indefinitely if not forever doesn't make you want to run out and get it.

This is my current take away with all of this:

1. The vaccines don't work.
2. They do, but Govt doesn't have any confidence in them.
3. The Govt is completely incompetent and will not even have a fraction of the population vaccinated by Christmas.
4. The Govt is enjoying this power trip way too much and has no intention of relinquishing it unless forced to.
5. All of the Above

Martin567

Irish Stones wrote: »

Dr Fauci has just said that mask wearing and social distancing will have to be maintained at least till the end of 2022, when we think that everybody in the world will be vaccinated.
I say, if these measures work, why drop them?

Because they are emergency measures with an absolutely enormous cost attached to them. They are detrimental to every facet of life and have to be dropped at the earliest possible date.

Ginger n Lemon

Irish Stones wrote: »

Dr Fauci has just said that mask wearing and social distancing will have to be maintained at least till the end of 2022, when we think that everybody in the world will be vaccinated.
I say, if these measures work, why drop them?

They work? We had 2 further lockdowns after mask love affair started.

Unless by work you mean lead us into level 5 lockdowns