When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

So why were there so few cases in July 2020? when there were really no restrictions.

And trust me you are one of the better posters here to discuss things with.

Was the the dominant variant in the country at the time, more or less transmissible then the dominant variant we have now?

Warm weather seems to be a protective factor.

W123-80's

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

So why were there so few cases in July 2020? when there were really no restrictions.

And trust me you are one of the better posters here to discuss things with.

I don't have the scientific answer to that question, but I'll give you my opinion.

I think case numbers were low in July because the virus only really arrived into Ireland in Feb '20, it grew but we locked down and we suppressed it.

Numbers began increasing as soon as we opened up again until we earned the most infected country on the planet title in early Jan '21

So we started Jan '21 from a fairly dire position when compared to Feb '20.
We needed tough restrictions to begin the process of reducing case numbers.
We are still in the process but now we have a vaccination programme working in tandem with the restrictions.

Easing restrictions at the current numbers would be irresponsible considering we now have a vaccine.

We have a tough few months ahead, but we have brighter evenings, a vaccine and hope.

El_Duderino 09

W123-80's wrote: »

I have 3 young kids and a mortgage to pay. I love a few pints. That's one of the simple things I miss most. I spent 7 months on the PUP.
I am not a lockdown fan.

I think on April 5th, assuming numbers are good there might be some less riskier restrictions that could potentially be lifted, but thats as good as it gets for now.

I said it in a previous post, the narrative of lifting restrictions is now, for the first time, being discussed in the context of a global vaccination programme. That is a situation that is not comparable to any of the previous lockdowns.
Easing restrictions now makes no sense in that context.

It's a tough road ahead, but assuming vaccinations work and there are no troublesome variants, we are going to make it.

The end game is in sight.

Amen.

Silentcorner

W123-80's wrote: »

I don't have the scientific answer to that question, but I'll give you my opinion.

I think case numbers were low in July because the virus only really arrived into Ireland in Feb '20, it grew but we locked down and we suppressed it.

Numbers began increasing as soon as we opened up again until we earned the most infected country on the planet title in early Jan '21

So we started Jan '21 from a fairly dire position when compared to Feb '20.
We needed tough restrictions to begin the process of reducing case numbers.
We are still in the process but now we have a vaccination programme working in tandem with the restrictions.

Easing restrictions at the current numbers would be irresponsible considering we now have a vaccine.

We have a tough few months ahead, but we have brighter evenings, a vaccine and hope.

We have had two surges.

One in March/April
One in Dec/Jan

The cases are irrelevant on account of the way we are counting them.

Two surges that have lasted approx 6 weeks each.

The numbers decline in the brighter months and then pick up as we go into the darker months....the hospital numbers on this period will be in the 400 per night range if not lower INCLUDING people who caught it in hospital out of a bed stock of 11,000....lock downs are having very little impact on numbers.

WE had the highest numbers of infections in the world in Jan...we have had the 3rd strictest lock down in the world...lock downs are not the saviour of us they have been made out to be...the virus is following seasonal patterns which is the determining factor on when the surge will shoot up.

Tune out from all the hysteria about variants and mutations, the thing has been mutating since it got here!!!

We have the data, one whole years worth...just stop listening to the hysteria merchants, we are now just bailing out the Health Service whilst it allows itself catch up with all the treatments and screenings it didn't perform last year.

Ginger n Lemon

Silentcorner wrote: »

We have had two surges.

One in March/April
One in Dec/Jan

The cases are irrelevant on account of the way we are counting them.

Two surges that have lasted approx 6 weeks each.

The numbers decline in the brighter months and then pick up as we go into the darker months....the hospital numbers on this period will be in the 400 per night range if not lower INCLUDING people who caught it in hospital out of a bed stock of 11,000....lock downs are having very little impact on numbers.

WE had the highest numbers of infections in the world in Jan...we have had the 3rd strictest lock down in the world...lock downs are not the saviour of us they have been made out to be...the virus is following seasonal patterns which is the determining factor on when the surge will shoot up.

Tune out from all the hysteria about variants and mutations, the thing has been mutating since it got here!!!

We have the data, one whole years worth...just stop listening to the hysteria merchants, we are now just bailing out the Health Service whilst it allows itself catch up with all the treatments and screenings it didn't perform last year.

Just on that in bold, didnt Chile have the worst numbers in the world end of last year and the strictest lockdown in the world also?

Seriously theres something about strict lockdowns and very high numbers.

Multipass

josip wrote: »

Things definitely getting back to normal around here.
The house across the street is being renovated; plumber, electrician and alarm guys all in there today.

Here too, I just had a lovely afternoon browsing in a garden centre. Was delighted to find them open, none of this stupid cordoning off non essentials either.

ShineOn7

"Sure it's only old people that are dying, once they're all vaccinated we can open up and it'll be grand"

Of the 56 deaths reported today

• Median age: 82
• Age range: 16 - 97

W123-80's

Silentcorner wrote: »

We have had two surges.

One in March/April
One in Dec/Jan

The cases are irrelevant on account of the way we are counting them.

Two surges that have lasted approx 6 weeks each.

The numbers decline in the brighter months and then pick up as we go into the darker months....the hospital numbers on this period will be in the 400 per night range if not lower INCLUDING people who caught it in hospital out of a bed stock of 11,000....lock downs are having very little impact on numbers.

WE had the highest numbers of infections in the world in Jan...we have had the 3rd strictest lock down in the world...lock downs are not the saviour of us they have been made out to be...the virus is following seasonal patterns which is the determining factor on when the surge will shoot up.

Tune out from all the hysteria about variants and mutations, the thing has been mutating since it got here!!!

We have the data, one whole years worth...just stop listening to the hysteria merchants, we are now just bailing out the Health Service whilst it allows itself catch up with all the treatments and screenings it didn't perform last year.

I'm not tuned into any hysteria.
I simply gave an answer to a question I was asked. The answer was my own opinion.
I stand by my opinion that we need to hold on to restrictions as we work to reduce numbers whilst simultaneously allowing the vaccination programme gain momentum.

I cannot garner from your post if or what restrictions you think should be lifted today.

Assuming the vaccinations are effective and there are no variants to spoil the party we are nearly there.

iagreebut

I seen suggestions mid last year from a lot of people that the government are locking down the country because they don't trust the population to behave themselves, keep the social distancing,wash their hands and adhere to the risk assessments.

People were getting lambasted with negative feedback, told they're potential killer's and that we're in a pandemic.

I'm not going back to point out certain poster's retoric and holier than thou attitude.
But that can lie with the consciousness of those people.

Now Liberals and left leaning people are hopping up and down calling out people who are gone more pro lockdown.

You can't have it every way.

More lockdown please until we get this virus down to where NPHET seems appropriate, and make a decision that matches the senior civil servants and governments suggestion for opening the country up.

It's very simple and it is what it is.

Ginger n Lemon

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Sure it's only old people that are dying, once they're all vaccinated we can open up and it'll be grand"

Of the 56 deaths reported today

• 31 occured in February
• 13 occured in January
• 3 in December or earlier
  
• 9 under investigation
• Median age: 82
• Age range: 16 - 97

Is that in bold serious or joking?

ShineOn7

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is that in bold serious or joking?

Serious

As in the date of 9 who passed hasn't been confirmed yet

Ginger n Lemon

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Serious

As in the date of 9 who passed hasn't been confirmed yet

What do you mean? they couldve died in August 2020 sort of thing?

Scotty #

Silentcorner wrote: »

We have had two surges.

One in March/April
One in Dec/Jan

...lock downs are not the saviour of us they have been made out to be...the virus is following seasonal patterns which is the determining factor on when the surge will shoot up.

So your saying we're in for a big surge again in a couple of weeks as March/April approaches again?

ShineOn7

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

What do you mean? they couldve died in August 2020 sort of thing?

I believe you have 3 months to report a death in Ireland

So they could've been from mid November on

landofthetree

“Bear in mind, just vaccinating the over-60s and people under 60 with chronic medical conditions, that is kind of 98% of the job in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,” he said.

Leo today on newstalk.

This is the message the public needs to hear.

Ginger n Lemon

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I believe you have 3 months to report a death in Ireland

So they could've been from mid November on

Why did a 97 year old person die? didnt he/she get a vaccine?

Scotty #

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Why did a 97 year old person die? didnt he/she get a vaccine?

Vaccines don't give immunity. We've been through this.

franciscanpunk

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Sure it's only old people that are dying, once they're all vaccinated we can open up and it'll be grand"

Of the 56 deaths reported today

• Median age: 82
• Age range: 16 - 97

It's like people were waiting for an under 18 to die of or with the virus to highlight it. Its very sad someone so young died but statistically they are an outlier. You make don't make decision that causing massive ecomomic and social devastation based on these very sad but very rare instances.

Every decision, even what NPHET say is communicated with 'based on the evidence' or 'based on the data' - the data shows that in terms of deaths

ShineOn7

landofthetree wrote: »

Leo today on newstalk.

This is the message the public needs to hear.

Leo is a grandstanding populist

He lets Martin deliver the gloom and then the next day (every time) he delivers a much more positive and sometimes completely opposite message

I have to give it to him, he's actually a complete master at self PR

Ginger n Lemon

Scotty # wrote: »

Vaccines don't give immunity. We've been through this.

I was asking what was the cause of death.

But now that you touched on it, will we be told about all the elderly dying with positive PCR test indefinitely into the future?

bucketybuck

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Sure it's only old people that are dying, once they're all vaccinated we can open up and it'll be grand"

Of the 56 deaths reported today

• Median age: 82
• Age range: 16 - 97

Throw up the numbers of teenage suicides there will you, since you are worried about the kids and all.

Or do dead children only count if they had covid when they passed?

bluelamp

Tiredandcranky wrote: »

But when... When is it going to be fine?

We all get the vaccine ... by August say: that’s great. Say the booster (that’s being prepared now) for new variants is available in September. So they’ll start to roll that out. In the meantime, to contain new variant, we’ll need some level of social distancing e.g. no big events. We all get the booster but meanwhile new variants are generated that require new boosters. And all the while, we have to restrict things like large gatherings and travel to try and contain them.

This goes on and on and on, until finally somebody sees sense and sees that we have to drive the numbers down to a sufficiently low level that we can test and trace the bejesus out of every case ie zero COVID. But that’s a dirty word politically now, so we could be waiting a long time.

I’m f**king sick of this ****!

I don't even understand the zero covid argument anymore tbh.

Shut down the borders, reach zero covid, then what? Keep our borders closed for the rest of our lives?

Same with the variants - Close our borders, keep the variants out, then what?

There's also nothing stopping an Irish variant.

The only way out of restrictions in my opinion is to accept that this is just one of many illnesses, that will unfortunately cause some death in the world. The UK seem to have copped on to this.

If vaccination doesn't prove to be the solution we hope it will be, I don't see what other option we have other than to accept that this thing is sticking around unfortunately.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I was asking what was the cause of death.

But now that you touched on it, will we be told about all the elderly dying with positive PCR test indefinitely into the future?

You know deaths have no affect on lockdown right?

Did you think about going to visit your parents?

Hector Savage

Scotty # wrote: »

The fine print in the UK's roadmap, as optimistic as it is, also expects the use of masks and social distancing to be reintroduced throughout the winter months.

Why ?
Won't they have pretty much full vaccination by then ?

Scotty #

bucketybuck wrote: »

Throw up the numbers of teenage suicides there will you,

I'd say it's a a damn sight lower than the 85,000 people we were expected to lose had we ignored Covid.

Scotty #

Hector Savage wrote: »

Why ?
Won't they have pretty much full vaccination by then ?

But that doesn't offer full protection. The vaccine will not eradicate Covid. The same roadmap also says they hope that covid deaths in the UK next year are as low as 30,000.

Ginger n Lemon

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say it's a a damn sight lower than the 85,000 people we were expected to lose had we ignored Covid.

Most worrying thing is that you actually believe that.


Very worrying.

ShineOn7

bucketybuck wrote: »

Throw up the numbers of teenage suicides there will you, since you are worried about the kids and all.

Or do dead children only count if they had covid when they passed?

Your "argument" is totally reductive

We're discussing Covid

Not teenage suicides

Ginger n Lemon

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Your "argument" is totally reductive

We're discussing Covid

Not teenage suicides

You can say that again. Maybe thats a problem?

Scotty #

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Most worrying thing is that you actually believe that.


Very worrying.

Actually the worrying thing is that you and people like you don't. When we'd run out of ventilators and ICU beds after the first month and 20,000 a week were still being infected what do you think would have happened?

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Dont you feel sorry for children whose education has been severely damaged over the last 11 months?

Dublin alcohol only pub workers who have been sitting at home for 11 months straight?

25% of unemployed people in the country whose salary has been reduced dramatically - to below minimum wage?

Am I being doom and gloomy or am I pointing out reality to you?

You've shown throughout the thread that you are completely unwilling to accept the reality.

The reality is, as was shown at the very start of all this by the prediction models, which have been shown to be highly accurate, that if we were to do nothing, 85,000 to 140,000 people in Ireland would have died in the first year. Instead only a mere 4,200 have succumbed to the virus. Why is that? It's because of lockdown. Don't come back with some bollix that it's no more than a cold... every ICU in the world has struggled to cope. It's a far cry from a cold or flu.

The reality also is, if the gov had listened to NPHET instead of people like yourself and locked down before Christmas when they were being advised to, the numbers would not have been nearly as bad in January and we most likely would be well out of lockdown now. This is also exactly the reason why they're not going to be in any hurry whatsoever to ease restrictions this time. Once bitten and all that...

The reality also is, we presently have 157people in ICU, that's MORE than we had in ICU at the peak of the first lockdown. Still over 650 in hospital.

You've mentioned your mental health... you've posted a whopping 3,200 times in the last 9 months almost exclusively on Covid. You've posted 75+ times on this thread in the last day ffs! You're not doing your yourself any favours! Take a break! Find something else to occupy your mind for a bit.