When will it all end?

Scotty #

francogarbanzo wrote: »

Can you explain why it matters if a nursing home employee does or does not take the vaccine? As far as I understand it, the vaccine only prevents the severity of symptoms when one contracts the virus. It doesn't prevent the virus from being transmitted.

It should only matter if the nursing home patients take the virus. Am I wrong in my understanding?

I think the jury is still out regarding transmission.

I think the refusal of patients to be treated by non vacc'ed is more about peace of mind rather than scientific data.

Doctor Jimbob

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You find a very strange phenomenon where the people who despise Holohan and NPHET and the power they have, also wish the government listened to Holohan and NPHET earlier and locked down harder before christmas.

In short, they're whinging about whatever they do, whenever they do it. If they had locked down early and we avoided any problem around Christmas, the same posters would be giving out about lockign down for nothing and ruining Christmas for no reason.

In fairness I think you're combining a range of viewpoints into one there. Most posters who think NPHET wield too much power were also against any kind of lockdown before/during Christmas. There are others who think we should have locked down more over Christmas but think we're going too far the other way at the moment and would like to see a small easing of restrictions. You're speaking as if there are people who hold both of those viewpoints at the same time but I don't think that's the case.

Doctor Jimbob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

UK NHS are out of level 5 "danger level of being overwhelmed" and are into level 4 now.

Claire wont like that

Do they have the UK variant there?

Le Bruise

francogarbanzo wrote: »

As far as I understand it, the vaccine only prevents the severity of symptoms when one contracts the virus. It doesn't prevent the virus from being transmitted.

Not proven, but signs are good that the vaccines will in fact stop transmission to a fair degree.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This makes more sense. Personally I don't believe that we'll reach 80% by September, but my point all along has been that Leo stated that he still felt that we probably would - and in the same interview, that we'd need another lockdown after achieving this, to avoid a fourth wave next Winter. Does. Not. Compute.

...

Look. I appreciate your long response, but i got this far into it and stopped because you're misremembering what was said again.

He didn't say we'd need another lockdown at all. He said "his best guess" was that there would be some level of restriction. Actually, look it up for yourself. I suspect you won't believe me when I quote what he said - you haven't believed me any of the other times I quoted what he said in the interview.

Here's the link https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/leo-varadkar-i-want-to-make-sure-this-pandemic-is-a-lost-year-not-a-lost-decade-1.4480399

It's not so much a case of "Does. Not. Compute.", rather Does. Not. Comprehend

Given that we both don't believe that we will reach anything like the 80% total population vaccinated by end September (and we don't know if 80% is actually enough for herd immunity or not) do you now see why we will likely have some restrictions ino the winter?

Ginger n Lemon

Le Bruise wrote: »

Not proven, but signs are good that the vaccines will in fact stop transmission to a fair degree.

Proven. Studies out there

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-transmission-dose-b1807964.html

A single dose of Pfizer-BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine cuts the number of asymptomatic infections and could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, a new UK study has found.

The findings from Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge indicated 75 per cent protection from Covid-19, indicating that the vaccine is helping bring the number of infections down.



And thats just after 1 dose. I think you'd get 2 doses usually of that


Anyways what will we talk about now that we know vaccines reduce transmission dramatically? Should we engage in Claire Byrnism and chat Nicaraguan variants and their dangers? :pac:

Scotty #

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

UK NHS are out of level 5 "danger level of being overwhelmed" and are into level 4 now.

The million dollar question is, is it because of their high vaccine numbers or because of the strict lockdown they are still under. Only time will tell.

El_Duderino 09

never_mind wrote: »

I am fairly optimistic about the whole thing, as naive as I may be. I feel that we are going to get out of this by the end of Summer and even throughout the summer we will be seeing much lower cases and things will be opened up. I think the communications piece needs to be re-visited and 'Coming out of Covid' should be the main message, not 'Living with Covid'. If people are optimistic, they will knuckle down for another few months. If people are pessimistic, they will get fed up and break restrictions.

Are you suggesting there will be no restrictions by the ned of summer?

It would be a really bad thing to just lie to the people simply to keep their spirits up and then go back on it later. They have already told us we will likely need some restrictions through next winter. What would be the point in pretending everything will be back to normal in the end of summer?

Wouldn't you just prefer to know the most likely outcome, based on the information they have at them moment?

Ginger n Lemon

Scotty # wrote: »

The million dollar question is, is it because of their high vaccine numbers or because of the strict lockdown they are still under. Only time will tell.

Given that they had strict lockdown in October, November, December and January I think it would be fair to say its because of vaccines.

Unless strict lockdowns take 5 months to kick in with them "benefits"? :pac:

Scotty #

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

UK NHS are out of level 5 "danger level of being overwhelmed" and are into level 4 now.

When did they introduce a Level 5? I thought 4 was their highest??

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Given that they had strict lockdown in October, November, December and January I think it would be fair to say its because of vaccines.

They went into Tier 4 in early Jan and have been in it since.

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Proven. Studies out there

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-transmission-dose-b1807964.html

A single dose of Pfizer-BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine cuts the number of asymptomatic infections and could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, a new UK study has found.

The findings from Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge indicated 75 per cent protection from Covid-19, indicating that the vaccine is helping bring the number of infections down.


And thats just after 1 dose. I think you'd get 2 doses usually of that


Anyways what will we talk about now that we know vaccines reduce transmission dramatically? Should we engage in Claire Byrnism and chat Nicaraguan variants and their dangers? :pac:

Not yet peer reviewed, let alone proven. It says so in the article you linked.

It's a good indication, and I get the urge to believe the things we want to believe, but lets just take the informatio for what it is and let' not pretend it's been "proven"

Ginger n Lemon

Scotty # wrote: »

When did they introduce a Level 5? I thought 4 was their highest??

They went into Tier 4 in early Jan and have been in it since.

NHS alert level has nothing to do with lockdown tiers.

Below article is from yesterday noon

COVID-19: UK alert level downgraded as threat of NHS being overwhelmed recedes
The number of hospital patients are declining and pressure on the NHS has reduced, the UK's chief medical officers said.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-alert-level-downgraded-as-threat-of-nhs-being-overwhelmed-recedes-12228748

The UK's chief medical officers said the alert level should move from Level 5 to Level 4 as the numbers of patients in hospital are "consistently declining and the threat of the NHS and other health services being overwhelmed within 21 days has receded".



BTW- this is good news. UK plan to reopen will be accelerating soon enough I'd say

Ginger n Lemon

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Not yet peer reviewed, let alone proven. It says so in the article you linked.

It's a good indication, and I get the urge to believe the things we want to believe, but lets just take the informatio for what it is and let' not pretend it's been "proven"

Do you want 1 from Israel too?

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Do you want 1 from Israel too?

Yes please.
Has the Israel one been peer reviewed?

hmmm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Not yet peer reviewed, let alone proven. It says so in the article you linked.

It's a good indication, and I get the urge to believe the things we want to believe, but lets just take the informatio for what it is and let' not pretend it's been "proven"

You can only work with the evidence you have. The emerging evidence is clear that the vaccines are having a huge impact on transmission.

There is no excuse for someone who works with vulnerable people to not take the vaccine, it's pure selfishness and will drag out this pandemic.

drunkmonkey

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Do you want 1 from Israel too?

It's gone tits up in Israel, the vaccines were never designed to cut transmission now it looks like they don't.


Following the opening of much of the economy this week, the trend of declining infection rates has been halted, and certain indicators are once again trending upwards, a military-led coronavirus task force said Friday.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/task-force-says-pandemic-on-rise-again-warns-of-new-vaccine-evading-ny-variant/

El_Duderino 09

hmmm wrote: »

You can only work with the evidence you have. The emerging evidence is clear that the vaccines are having a huge impact on transmission.

...

Yes that's exactly what i suggested. The poster I responded to said it was "proven" based on an article which hasn't even been peer reviewed. So the evidence we have is non peer reviewed articles which suggest that vaccines cut transmissions, not any kind of proof as yet. Do you agree?

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's gone tits up in Israel, the vaccines were never designed to cut transmission now it looks like they don't.

Israel re-opened everything with approximately 50% of their population vaccinated, of course the number of infections are going to go up. What has that got to do with whether or not the vaccines are having an impact - are vaccinated & unvaccinated people showing the same level of disease?

A study out this week shows that even a single dose of Pfizer's vaccine significantly reduces virus transmission:

https://www.authorea.com/users/332778/articles/509881-single-dose-bnt162b2-vaccine-protects-against-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infection

Ginger n Lemon

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's gone tits up in Israel, the vaccines were never designed to cut transmission now it looks like they don't.


Following the opening of much of the economy this week, the trend of declining infection rates has been halted, and certain indicators are once again trending upwards, a military-led coronavirus task force said Friday.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/task-force-says-pandemic-on-rise-again-warns-of-new-vaccine-evading-ny-variant/

Nope.

It looks like they do.

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine found to reduce Covid-19 transmission
Data gathered by Israel’s health ministry shows vaccine highly effective at preventing infection

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-1.4491138

Even Irish times are reporting it. IRISH TIMES.


As to your link, it has a sentence "The task force said it expected rising infection numbers in the coming days."

Is the task force essentially Israeli Gerry Killeen or?

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Nope.

It looks like they do.

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine found to reduce Covid-19 transmission
Data gathered by Israel’s health ministry shows vaccine highly effective at preventing infection

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-1.4491138

Even Irish times are reporting it. IRISH TIMES.


As to your link, it has a sentence "The task force said it expected rising infection numbers in the coming days."

Is the task force essentially Israeli Gerry Killeen or?

It doesn't really matter how many news outlets reference the same research, the research still says the same thing. From the IT article "The new data – which has not yet been peer reviewed – provide the first real-world demonstration of the vaccine’s effectiveness and offers hope that those immunised will also help to stem the spread of infection."

Do you actually read the articles or just pick out a few bits you want to hear?

What we have is different sources with different information and you and I have very little chance of figuring out what's most likely true from what's not true. The only thing we can actually do is acknowledge the conflicting information available and wait for more information.

drunkmonkey

hmmm wrote: »

Israel re-opened everything with approximately 50% of their population vaccinated,

That's what I was thinking, UK needs to be careful, doesn't bode well for a meaningful summer as we won't be anywhere near that.
We're meant to be getting 2 million of the J&J any idea when they should be here?

hatrickpatrick

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Look. I appreciate your long response, but i got this far into it and stopped because you're misremembering what was said again.

He didn't say we'd need another lockdown at all. He said "his best guess" was that there would be some level of restriction. Actually, look it up for yourself. I suspect you won't believe me when I quote what he said - you haven't believed me any of the other times I quoted what he said in the interview.

Here's the link https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/leo-varadkar-i-want-to-make-sure-this-pandemic-is-a-lost-year-not-a-lost-decade-1.4480399

It's not so much a case of "Does. Not. Compute.", rather Does. Not. Comprehend

Given that we both don't believe that we will reach anything like the 80% total population vaccinated by end September (and we don't know if 80% is actually enough for herd immunity or not) do you now see why we will likely have some restrictions ino the winter?

For F*CK'S sake, it's right there in the god damn article! For the bajillionth time! :mad:

I'm going to paraphrase the article in four very distinct sentences

Sentence #1, in which Leo tells us that we cannot have mass gatherings again until we achieve mass vaccination.

"I don’t see mass gatherings happening, I don’t see people filling stadiums and things like that, at least until we have 70 or 80 per cent of the population vaccinated and we know that it works in terms of reducing hospitalisations and deaths. Then we’re in a totally different space."

So far, I'm with Leo. This makes perfect sense and I certainly haven't been thinking about it any other way. 80% critical mass is the generally accepted yardstick so I'd even suggest he's being overly lax in floating 70% as an acceptable bar. So far, so good.

Sentence #2, in which Leo tells us that we're aiming for mass vaccination by September:

"And potentially outdoor gatherings of 10 to 15 people, maybe even 50 but nothing beyond that until we have a critical mass vaccinated of 70 to 80 per cent; we’re aiming for September for that."

Again, so far, so good. I'd still take issue with not sticking with 80% and instead introducing the possibility of only 70% being considered sufficient, playing with fire IMO. But generally speaking, in agreement.

So, to recap:

Sentence #1: No mass gatherings until mass vaccination.

Sentence #2: We're aiming for mass vaccination by September.

With me so far?

That brings us to:

Sentences #3 and #4, in which Leo tells us that we'll have restrictions at least until the end of the year, and that we'll be worried about another wave next winter and thus possibly have them well into next year as well:

Sentence #3: “There will be some form of restrictions at least until the end of the year if not well into next year,”

Sentence #4: "There is still a worry about next winter because it does seem there’s a seasonal element to this virus. People are indoors more and you’re 20 times more likely to get it indoors than out. So there will be a concern about a fourth wave of some sort next winter and there will be huge caution about allowing mass gatherings until we get through another winter."

Read these a few times. Do you not see how fundamentally contradictory these statements are? Jesus, this shouldn't be so difficult to get across. Either we do achieve mass vaccination by September or we carry restrictions forward into next year. The two are 100% mutually exclusive based on Leo's own words FFS - no mass gatherings until we have a critical mass vaccinated. So if sentence #2 is true, then sentences #3 and #4 make absolutely no sense whatsoever - UNLESS Leo is saying that the vaccine isn't good enough to allow us to end this nightmare. But in the same article, in sentence #1, he claimed that the vaccine was good enough to allow us to end this nightmare!

How anyone can read this interview and not come away confused at the very very least is utterly beyond me. The statements are fundamentally contradictory.

Scotty #

hmmm wrote: »

Israel re-opened everything with approximately 50% of their population vaccinated

There was an Irish guy who lives in Israel interviewed on Tonight Show last night and he mentioned a few times that they are still on 1KM lockdown there (though he did suggest people weren't paying much heed to it).

Ginger n Lemon

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It doesn't really matter how many news outlets reference the same research, the research still says the same thing. From the IT article "The new data – which has not yet been peer reviewed – provide the first real-world demonstration of the vaccine’s effectiveness and offers hope that those immunised will also help to stem the spread of infection."

Do you actually read the articles or just pick out a few bits you want to hear?

What we have is different sources with different information and you and I have very little chance of figuring out what's most likely true from what's not true. The only thing we can actually do is acknowledge the conflicting information available and wait for more information.

How is it same research? I've linked you Israeli research.

Ive linked you UK Pfizer research.

Do you have difficulty accepting that vaccines reduce transmissions or you want to see with your own eyes before you believe it?

Ironic thing is none of the modelling studies were peer reviewed that got us into lockdown, I'd say you werent that evidence hungry back then though

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's what I was thinking, UK needs to be careful, doesn't bode well for a meaningful summer as we won't be anywhere near that.
We're meant to be getting 2 million of the J&J any idea when they should be here?

Expected to be at 80% by end of June

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's what I was thinking, UK needs to be careful, doesn't bode well for a meaningful summer as we won't be anywhere near that.
We're meant to be getting 2 million of the J&J any idea when they should be here?

Some schedules both official and unofficial have been shared over on the vaccines thread.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=116390462

I agree with you that Summer is not going to be normal, but based on current predictions everyone who wants a vaccine should expect to be able to get one by the end of Summer.

hmmm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Read these a few times. Do you not see how fundamentally contradictory these statements are? Jesus, this shouldn't be so difficult to get across. Either we do achieve mass vaccination by September or we carry restrictions forward into next year. The two are 100% mutually exclusive based on Leo's own words

In fairness to who-ever said this, all governments are saying the same thing.

They expect the bulk of restrictions to be lifted by late Summer. However vaccines don't give 100% protection, so we will have to be careful when we get into Winter and hospitals are also dealing with the "normal" level of Flu. The restrictions they are talking about for Winter are not really lockdowns, but maybe encouraging people to wear masks indoors, stay at home if sick and some restrictions on indoor gatherings (e.g. table-service only in pubs).

drunkmonkey

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

80% critical mass is the generally accepted yardstick

It's 60-70% is what's accepted by the WHO and most epidemiologists, Fauci floated 80% then backtracked and admitted he said such a high number in the hope they'd hit 60-70%
Our guys are the same, shoot for the stars, if they land on the moon were still ok.
Israel was only at 32% fully vaccinated the other day and may have opened too soon by the looks of it.

drunkmonkey

hmmm wrote: »

Some schedules both official and unofficial have been shared over on the vaccines thread.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=116390462

I agree with you that Summer is not going to be normal, but based on current predictions everyone who wants a vaccine should expect to be able to get one by the end of Summer.

60% with the second dose by June that's very positive.

Kermit.de.frog

This a longer term problem than many still think regardless of vaccines in my view.

The best case for this year as Leo rightfully says is getting rid of level 5 restrictions.

Then the question becomes where do we end up on the scale? Looks to me like level 3 restrictions may see out the year as I don't see level 4 being needed through the summer hopefully unless we have a Texas style mid summer surge.

The proof of the pudding with the vaccines is in the eating but no country has reached critical threshold yet to see the true effect on transmission/severity and with all these variants.

If Israel, for example, sees limited impact and cases start surging again regardless then that's very bad and leaves us in an appalling situation really.

If they see rapid decline and long term suppression then that is great news for the rest of us.

Which will it be?