When will it all end?

Irish Stones

Scotty # wrote: »

Looking at some of the data, annual may be a bit ambitious. The first dose of pfizer and AZ starts to wear after 28-32 days. There isn't enough data yet to say how long the full vaccine lasts. There's also over 20 vaccines in final test stages now too so some of them may give better results.

Also because it can't be annual if it takes more than a year to do the whole population.

Tchaikovsky

Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated it's time to start reopening things. People are already very restless and angry at the government's handling of this since Christmas and if/when the number of hospitalized cases drop (as they've already started to do) but severe restrictions are still in place, the majority of people will clock out.

Ginger n Lemon

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. The colour of the sky isn't new information. The effect of Covid vaccination on covid transmission is brand new information and research neds to be peer reviewed.
Look, if you don't understand what peer review actually means, that's fine. Just take my word for it that, as yet we don't have "proof" of anything around covid vaccinations and transmissions. What we do have is early research that suggests some really good things re cutting transmission. But please, even if you don't understand why, take my word for it that we don't have "proof" - or consensus, yet

No, I am not going to do that.

growleaves

Saudi, Philippines, Thailand and some US states like Massachussetts slowly opening up. If the world in general opens up that will affect us surely.

A Google search for 'new virus' not picking up anything outside Ireland though perhaps I'm not searching properly. Is this phrase for domestic consumption only?

CalamariFritti

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I doubt anyone will have the will to sustain lockdowns beyond this time next year.

And we wouldn't be able to anyway socially or financially.

Whatever happens with the vaccine ...or new variants ...however protective the vaccine is or isn't....i dont see people be willing to have another winter of lockdown.

I certainly wouldn't be willing to go into 2022 like this or anything remotely like this.

I've been thinking this all along.

The people raising fears about vaccines not getting us out of this or variants this and that. I have news for you.
This will not mean a new normal and restrictions for years and years.
It will mean that we will just have to say tough sh1t and get on with it. Maybe not what you had in mind.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If we achieve that mass vaccination by September we're going to know by Christmas whether it worked or not. The idea of restrictions "well into next year" makes absolutely no sense in that context.

Yeah. If things go great we might have no, or very few, restrictions this winter. If things don't go great then there could be restrictions into the winter and maybe well into next year.

Ginger n Lemon

growleaves wrote: »

Saudi, Philippines, Thailand and some US states like Massachussetts slowly opening up. If the world in general opens up that will affect us surely.

A Google search for 'new virus' not picking up anything outside Ireland though perhaps I'm not searching properly. Is this phrase for domestic consumption only?

Some of those countries are pretty, how do I put it politely, "conservative" in their views and approach.

AND EVEN THEY BLOODY RE OPEN

Sometimes I think M Martin just wanted to try out North Korean regime in Ireland, almost as if he lost a bet with someone prior to being elected. :mad:

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

No, I am not going to do that.

Ok. Fair enough.

Who do you believe, who told you the transmission stuff was "proved"?

El_Duderino 09

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated it's time to start reopening things. People are already very restless and angry at the government's handling of this since Christmas and if/when the number of hospitalized cases drop (as they've already started to do) but severe restrictions are still in place, the majority of people will clock out.

Isn't that precisely what they're doing? Vaccinating the vulnerable groups and begin reopening.

bullpost

If we open completely once the very old and vulnerable are vaccinated, the virus will still transmit among the rest of the population. From my understnding of the age ranges of those hospitalized recently, this will still lead to substantial numbers of people being hospitalized , though not necessarily going to ICU or dying.

Ginger n Lemon

bullpost wrote: »

If we open completely once the very old and vulnerable are vaccinated, the virus will still transmit among the rest of the population. From my understnding of the age ranges of those hospitalized recently, this will still lead to substantial numbers of people being hospitalized , though not necessarily going to ICU or dying.

But are they hospitalized because of covid or just happen to have covid as they go into a hospital with x y z health issue?

They stopped tracking this a while back I believe, to add to the fear mongering :S

Corby Trouser Press

growleaves wrote: »

Saudi, Philippines, Thailand and some US states like Massachussetts slowly opening up. If the world in general opens up that will affect us surely.

A Google search for 'new virus' not picking up anything outside Ireland though perhaps I'm not searching properly. Is this phrase for domestic consumption only?

File it under Irish peculiarities along with "Wet Pubs" and "non-essential Construction"

W123-80's

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If we achieve that mass vaccination by September we're going to know by Christmas whether it worked or not. The idea of restrictions "well into next year" makes absolutely no sense in that context.

Again, you are missing a huge caveat. Highlighted above.
Everything is pretty much an 'if'.
There are no certainties.
Varadker was simply laying it out as it is.
I still don't see the controversy in the caveat filled statement he made.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Isn't that precisely what they're doing? Vaccinating the vulnerable groups and begin reopening.

.... and snap lockdowns if case numbers rise.

It will be essential that the following is achieved before any significant easing of measures is contemplated:
(1) disease prevalence is brought to much lower levels that can be managed and controlled by
public health,
(2) hospital and critical care occupancy are reduced to low levels to protect the health service
and allow for the safe resumption of non-covid care,
(3) the most vulnerable are protected through vaccination,
(4) when these conditions have been met, any easing should be slow and gradual with sufficient time between phases to assess impact and subject to rapid response if the epidemiological situation was to deteriorate.

Can someone explain to me the hatred for Leo Varadkar - he has been honest throughout all this, telling the truth about COVID. No other politician apart from Michael McNamara and Peadar Toibin has been. The rest of them have been varying levels of deluded and misinformed.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. If things go great we might have no, or very few, restrictions this winter. If things don't go great then there could be restrictions into the winter and maybe well into next year.

What happens if we get Covid under control and we're back to 10,000+ people on trolleys for a few months next Christmas. Is that ok with the general public?

I'm worried we've started down a road it's hard to turn back on without sorting the HSE out first. NPHET will want restrictions regardless, if Covid didn't appear we were under threat of major strikes from the health care unions over the working conditions around winter 2019.

I honestly don't know how this is going to play out but I do know once we gave the government unlimited power over every aspect of our lives form how we breathe to how we breed it's become a very dark place riddled with fear and anxiety.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

.... and snap lockdowns if case numbers rise.

Yes. proportionate reactions to new information is appropriate and sensible. I certainly hope there won't be any need for lockdowns in the future. What's your point?

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

Can someone explain to me the hatred for Leo Varadkar - he has been honest throughout all this, telling the truth about COVID. No other politician apart from Michael McNamara and Peadar Toibin has been. The rest of them have been varying levels of deluded and misinformed.

Hes been flip flopping more than some posters here :pac:

I remember in August last year he was like "I Am actually surprised pubs are still closed in Ireland" it was brilliant

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

Can someone explain to me the hatred for Leo Varadkar - he has been honest throughout all this, telling the truth about COVID. No other politician apart from Michael McNamara and Peadar Toibin has been. The rest of them have been varying levels of deluded and misinformed.

Don't forget Mattie McGrath and the Healy-Rae's, even Róisin Shorthall. They're all on our side no matter how loopy some think they are.

Anyone you've mentioned I would gladly have running the show right now, Leo is not afraid of NPHET and that's a really good thing.

bullpost

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But are they hospitalized because of covid or just happen to have covid as they go into a hospital with x y z health issue?

They stopped tracking this a while back I believe, to add to the fear mongering :S

Last stats. I saw (Jan 2021) had 50% of those in hospital were under 64, so that's a big number, notwithstanding the point you make.

El_Duderino 09

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What happens if we get Covid under control and we're back to 10,000+ people on trolleys for a few months next Christmas. Is that ok with the general public?

I'm worried we've started down a road it's hard to turn back on without sorting the HSE out first. NPHET will want restrictions regardless, if Covid didn't appear we were under threat of major strikes from the health care unions over the working conditions around winter 2019.

I honestly don't know how this is going to play out but I do know once we gave the government unlimited power over every aspect of our lives form how we breathe to how we breed it's become a very dark place riddled with fear and anxiety.

Have you given control of how you breed to the government? I certainly haven't.

I don't know how it will work out either. I don't pretend to know what will happen with any certainty. It seems the less people know about the situation, the more certain the are about what will happen.

It's frustrating but we just don't know what will happen, and neither does the government - nobody knows. There's a lot of just needing to wait and see and react when it happens.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yes. proportionate reactions to new information is appropriate and sensible. I certainly hope there won't be any need for lockdowns in the future. What's your point?

Proportionate .... that's the key word here.

There is a tsunami of problems on the way, or here already from these lockdowns. I don't believe for one second these lockdowns have been in any way proportionate. Other tools such as the liberal use of lateral flow testing could have enabled us to live with COVID in a much more proportionate and normal manner. A manner where personal responsibility was central, with stiff penalties for those taking the mickey.

Lateral flow tests could have reduced the R number way below 1 and kept it there. But we didn't even try.

This has shattered our economy, society, government finances and our ability to fund our health service going forward. That's the reality. Far more people will die from the fallout from this than would ever have from the virus itself.

We failed to protect our vulnerable. This one stat says it all:

Percentage of people over 65 died with/from COVID
Sweden 0.55% (17.Feb.2021)
Ireland 0.60% (24.Feb.2021)

A damning indictment of our approach.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Have you given control of how you breed to the government? I certainly haven't.

I don't know how it will work out either. I don't pretend to know what will happen with any certainty. It seems the less people know about the situation, the more certain the are about what will happen.

It's frustrating but we just don't know what will happen, and neither does the government - nobody knows. There's a lot of just needing to wait and see and react when it happens.

I'm ok that box is ticked but if you listen to women heading close to the menopause their last crack at having kids has been stolen from them, it's very hard to start a normal relationship at the moment, I know a few in this situation, Tinder isn't a solution.

Your right it's a wait and see game for the next while we've come so far to undo it now over hopefully a couple of months.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Proportionate .... that's the key word here.

There is a tsunami of problems on the way, or here already from these lockdowns. I don't believe for one second these lockdowns have been in any way proportionate. Other tools such as the liberal use of lateral flow testing could have enabled us to live with COVID in a much more proportionate and normal manner. A manner where personal responsibility was central, with stiff penalties for those taking the mickey.

Lateral flow tests could have reduced the R number way below 1 and kept it there. But we didn't even try.

We had that situation a couple of months ago where we relied on personal responsibility over Christmas and ended up with the highest rates of covid in the world. I don't like restrictions. But that's not really the point.

Reality is that people wanted freedom over Christmas, the numbers went bananas as people spread the virus to each other over Christmas, then we needed a lockdown. And those numbers are still recovering from the Christmas spike. You can imagineer a different solution in hindsight, but they did what they could with what they had.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

We had that situation a couple of months ago where we relied on personal responsibility over Christmas and ended up with the highest rates of covid in the world. I don't like restrictions. But that's not really the point.

Reality is that people wanted freedom over Christmas, the numbers went bananas as people spread the virus to each other over Christmas, then we needed a lockdown. And those numbers are still recovering from the Christmas spike. You can imagineer a different solution in hindsight, but they did what they could with what they had.

If people could have tested themselves quickly and got a 99% accurate indication if they were infectious before seeing Granny, you don't think they would have? How many lives would that have saved? Realistically? This isn't some hindsight, this has been available for 9+ months now and widely recommended. People wear masks FFS, all the time.

Michael McNamara has been talking in the Dail and on the COVID committee ad nauseum about this.

The management of this has been a shambles.

Also they should be off buying vaccines from other sources. We're not vaccine sceptics like the rest of Europe. We need to be saving lives, not placating the EU.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people could have tested themselves quickly and got a 99% accurate indication if they were infectious before seeing Granny, you don't think they would have? How many lives would that have saved? Realistically? This isn't some hindsight, this has been available for 9+ months now and widely recommended. People wear masks FFS, all the time.

The management of this has been a shambles.

Absolutely, most would have done so. I have reservations about people 's abilities to use these tests accurately but that's another point.

Was there enough supply of millions of lateral flow tests in December? Why didn't people make sure to use them them if they were available before going to see granny over Christmas? Personally responsible people would surely have used lateral flow tests before going to see granny at Christmas.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Absolutely, most would have done so. I have reservations about people 's abilities to use these tests accurately but that's another point.

Well even if they were 50% effective that still cuts the R number in half.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Was there enough supply of millions of lateral flow tests in December? Why didn't people make sure to use them them if they were available before going to see granny over Christmas?

Yes there were plenty of them, but they cost about €200 for 10 here, and it says you have to be a medical professional to use them.

If they had been approved and given out, or even distributed to pharmacies for them to administer ( they only cost a few euro each in the US ) think how many lives would have been saved.

Also would have alerted the government that there was a problem sooner .....

thebiglad

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Your right it's a wait and see game for the next while we've come so far to undo it now over hopefully a couple of months.

The issue a lack of belief it will be a couple of months - when other Eu citizens, UK & US are allowed their freedom including the ability to take a holiday in 2021 (when some will visit Ireland as we are not allowed to leave) we will still be making a graduated exit from stage 4. something

If we were told at 50%/60% of adults vaccinated = some form of freedom then so be it, knuckle down till we get there. What we hear is we'll see with no metrics or targets, and the goalposts such as they are constantly being moved - low double digit cases, hospital waiting lists etc etc.

Just go outside to a major road and see the amount of traffic on the move, people have given up and those of us who are still following the rules are being mugged off.

The Goverment has lost the large majority of the public and cannot sustain this lockdown as-is without some realistic exit dates to raise morale and make lockdown worthwhile to continue to adhere to

UK, Israel & some US states will be the canary in the mines - they do well not he back of high vaccination and ease of lockdown measures and lockdown here will crumble and FF/FG if they try to maintain know they will make themselves unelectable next time round if they try to fight public opinion.

eggy81

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you think so? I never would have considered the Irish to be particularly law abiding. I’ve never really seen us describe ourselves as sticklers for rules. It feels a bit like maybe we’re just saying it in this one instance...

I’d say we’re the most easily controlled people in Europe. Who’s easier to get to toe the line?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well even if they were 50% effective that still cuts the R number in half.



Yes there were plenty of them, but they cost about €200 for 10 here, and it says you have to be a medical professional to use them.

If they had been approved and given out, or even distributed to pharmacies for them to administer ( they only cost a few euro each in the US ) think how many lives would have been saved.

Also would have alerted the government that there was a problem sooner .....

I'm not sure the calculation is that simple. Giving people something like a lateral flow test (used effectively or not) changes behaviour. But they probably would have helped alright. And in their absence, the personal responsibility which people chose to exercise gave us the highest covid transmission rate in the world.

How do you get the personal responsibility argument past the problem of the Christmas period numbers?