When will it all end?

ingo1984

The priority is to vaccinate the elderly and sick. They are the main demographic of who end up hospitalised and putting pressure on the health system.

By the end of March a large proportion of these will be vaccinated.

If there is 5,000 positive cases of which 300 end up in hospital it is the figure of 300 the government/nphet care about. Hope if vaccinating the vulnerable groups should cause a drop in this figure.

5,000 cases of people with mild symptoms and can stay at home, government doesn't care.

I reckon once the vulnerable groups are vaccinated and hospital numbers/admissions drop to a negligible figure we'll be out of the woods.

It is the hospitalizations numbers driving the lockdowns. Sort that out, ya end the lockdowns.

cgcsb

Interesting. 153,000 people have already had it. We've about 5,000 cases a day(35,000 a week) lately. Government claims to be able to vaccinate 40,000 per week. If the rate of infection and vaccination remains constant we'll have over 2 million immune by mid summer. Would be hard to argue for lockdowns at that stage. Of course current rate of infection won't continue with lockdown measures and the health service couldn't sustain that volume anyway.

partyguinness

In Holland they have gone the other way. They are vaccinating the young first.

Makes sense. The sick and the elderly are isolating and not 'out and about'.

Paddygreen

snowcat wrote: »

Next 2 weeks are critical.

They will be absolutely crucial as well as dire, grim, sobering, petrifying, spine chilling, morbid, ghoulish, depressing, hopeless, and soul destroying. It’s not easy to hold firm when one is shaking like a leaf. My Dr Tony shrine is the only thing keeping me sane at the moment, had to evict the baby Jesus and his entire family to make way for Tony. He cares so much about us, a walking saint.

Ha Long Bay

partyguinness wrote: »

In Holland they have gone the other way. They are vaccinating the young first.

Makes sense. The sick and the elderly are isolating and not 'out and about'.

Where did you see that?


https://nltimes.nl/2020/11/20/coronavirus-vaccination-strategy-confirmed-dutch-government

"Elderly people, medically vulnerable people, and healthcare workers who are in direct contact with Covid-19 patients will be the first people in the Netherlands to be vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus. The Dutch Cabinet decision means it will move forward with the advice it received earlier this week from its healthcare advisory board."

partyguinness

partyguinness wrote: »

It's not so much about the number of people dying but rather that virtually the entire healthcare system is being diverted to Covid. It is impacting on other services. Operating rooms are being turned into ICU wards.

It will be interesting to note the cancer death rates over the next few years to see if delayed diagnosis due to Covid has had a major impact.

Since Covid started my mother got diagnosed with cancer and is almost done with her chemo, radiation still to come. Plenty of people are still getting treatment.

JDD wrote: »

We will have all over 70's and HCWs vaccinated by the end of March.

I can see us staying in this Level 5 until then, with the exception of schools going back on 1 March. This lockdown should have the effect of reducing the infections to the low hundreds per day.

We will, in all likliehood, revert to a Level 3 by then. Once over 70's are innoculated there will be way less deaths and it should take a good chunk off the hospitalisations too. With the HCWs also innoculated the health service will be in a much better position to cope with any remaining hospitalisations of the 40-70 age group. And of course we will be out of the winter, so there will be less hospitalisations for non-covid illnesses, which should also take the pressure off. Once April comes it will be easier to socialise outside restaurants and pubs, and to meet in people's gardens, so infections should stay low.

If we get the vulnerable and the over 50's innoculated by May/June we may be able to go to a Level 1/2 for the summer. No summer festivals, but we will be able to dine and drink inside.

I expect mass inoculation to be complete by Hallowe'en. Restrictions should then be removed completely. I can't see any reason to keep them at that stage, and I don't believe the conspiracy theorists who say we'll be masking and distancing forever because of Tony Holohan's power trip.

By the middle of the summer all but pubs will and should be open IMO.
I'd rather we keep things "tight" towards the end of the year just to keep an eye on things. Allow events in the last few months of the year but don't "organise" large ones. People will be ready to mix and party and let it happen without adding big 10/15k events and multiple 1-2k events daily around Dublin.

landofthetree

cgcsb wrote: »

Interesting. 153,000 people have already had it. We've about 5,000 cases a day(35,000 a week) lately. Government claims to be able to vaccinate 40,000 per week. If the rate of infection and vaccination remains constant we'll have over 2 million immune by mid summer. Would be hard to argue for lockdowns at that stage. Of course current rate of infection won't continue with lockdown measures and the health service couldn't sustain that volume anyway.

Be interesting to find out how many really had it.

Bound to have missed a lot of cases.

saabsaab

landofthetree wrote: »

Be interesting to find out how many really had it.

Bound to have missed a lot of cases.

Time to re run that randomized nationwide antibody test to see how many.

Hector Savage

ingo1984 wrote: »

The priority is to vaccinate the elderly and sick. They are the main demographic of who end up hospitalised and putting pressure on the health system.

By the end of March a large proportion of these will be vaccinated.

If there is 5,000 positive cases of which 300 end up in hospital it is the figure of 300 the government/nphet care about. Hope if vaccinating the vulnerable groups should cause a drop in this figure.

5,000 cases of people with mild symptoms and can stay at home, government doesn't care.

I reckon once the vulnerable groups are vaccinated and hospital numbers/admissions drop to a negligible figure we'll be out of the woods.

It is the hospitalizations numbers driving the lockdowns. Sort that out, ya end the lockdowns.

Spot on and indeed makes sense.

However bureacrats don't follow sense, and I just fear a constant shifting of the goalposts.

After elderly are vaccinated they'll be saying - but but it's still dangerous for the young (some) restrictions continue ...

After they are vaccinated ... oh oh but but but it's still dangerous anyway and new strains etc .... restrictions continue ...

new reason xxx restrictions continue ...

.... restrictions continue ....
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue

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Christmas 2024 .... "Ireland hopes for level 4 Christmas as last commercial aircraft is scrapped" ..

ninebeanrows

It will all end sooner than we think.

By mid-Feb we will been a much much better position, hopsital cases will be falling and tests will be around 300-500 daily mark, deaths will have peaked. However, the next 4 weeks are going to be tough as hospital/icu numbers will be stubbornly high and we will be recording upto 50 deaths daily at times.

Fighting Tao

Hector Savage wrote: »

Spot on and indeed makes sense.

However bureacrats don't follow sense, and I just fear a constant shifting of the goalposts.

After elderly are vaccinated they'll be saying - but but it's still dangerous for the young (some) restrictions continue ...

After they are vaccinated ... oh oh but but but it's still dangerous anyway and new strains etc .... restrictions continue ...

new reason xxx restrictions continue ...

.... restrictions continue ....
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue
restrictions continue

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Christmas 2024 .... "Ireland hopes for level 4 Christmas as last commercial aircraft is scrapped" ..

I sell tin foil hats for a living. Running short of them at the moment as they have become the latest fashion trend. Would you like to buy one? You need to be quick.

CalamariFritti

landofthetree wrote: »

Be interesting to find out how many really had it.

Bound to have missed a lot of cases.

WHO thinks its factor 10.
Thats globally and I'm sure there will be differences between countries depending on infrastructure and test strategy and whatnot. But thats the magnitude of it. True infection numbers will be many multiples of reported case numbers.

Miccoli

I believe any logical person would think that by June with all vulnerable people vaccinated and as such a large minority of the total population vaccinated , we could lift all restrictions. The summer weather would also be be helpful in that.

However given the constant moving of the goalposts and generally cautious approach from the government/nphet I’m not convinced we will see that. I think they may try keep say level 2 or 3 restrictions until people stop complying completely.

In my opinion the pandemic will only end once enough people decide they want it to end.

PTH2009

Deleted User wrote: »

By the middle of the summer all but pubs will and should be open IMO.
I'd rather we keep things "tight" towards the end of the year just to keep an eye on things. Allow events in the last few months of the year but don't "organise" large ones. People will be ready to mix and party and let it happen without adding big 10/15k events and multiple 1-2k events daily around Dublin.

That's the sort of attitude the government love hearing. The brief period when pubs were open (drink only not the food nonsense) they operated pretty well with the social distancing/masks etc. They deserve a chance to operate and not stayed closed because of predictions

Don't agree with that personally and think we should be aiming to get places such as the 3Arena/Olympia etc operating full coming to the end of 2021. Events bring a lot of money into Dublin through pubs/hotels/restaurants and shopping etc

No way will other countries keep there hospitality/entertainment industries closed like your suggesting mid-late 2021

Miccoli

PTH2009 wrote: »

That's the sort of attitude the government love hearing. The brief period when pubs were open (drink only not the food nonsense) they operated pretty well with the social distancing/masks etc. They deserve a chance to operate and not stayed closed because of predictions

Don't agree with that personally and think we should be aiming to get places such as the 3Arena/Olympia etc operating full coming to the end of 2021. Events bring a lot of money into Dublin through pubs/hotels/restaurants and shopping etc

No way will other countries keep there hospitality/entertainment industries closed like your suggesting mid-late 2021

I would agree completely but there’s enough people with that line of thinking that could potentially make restrictions feasible well into summer and beyond. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated they’ll be saying keep it tight until 50% of the population are vaccinated , then it’ll be 70% etc etc.

peasant

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It will all end sooner than we think.

It will all take a lot longer than we think.

Sure, at some point in the not too distant future (autumn this year perhaps?) we will reach a point where due to vaccination, social distancing and lockdowns we will have brought the virus to manageable to negligible numbers and some normalcy will return.

But the virus still exists, it will turn up in small pockets all over the world and, if not contained, it will spread again. We will have localised lockdowns all over the planet for years to come

This will only truly end once the virus has mutated to a point where it becomes a lot less infectious than it currently is. Until such time we will have to remain vigilant and get vaccinated several times.

Sorry to be such a downer

bucketybuck

PTH2009 wrote: »

Yep

The sad thing is this is been ignored by the government. NPHET also ignoring it but its really not there problem but there constant recommendations of hard lockdowns plays its part

I rather think that the Chief Medical Officer should consider it one of his problems, otherwise just change his title to Chief Covid officer and be done with it.

PTH2009

PTH2009 wrote: »

That's the sort of attitude the government love hearing. The brief period when pubs were open (drink only not the food nonsense) they operated pretty well with the social distancing/masks etc. They deserve a chance to operate and not stayed closed because of predictions

Don't agree with that personally and think we should be aiming to get places such as the 3Arena/Olympia etc operating full coming to the end of 2021. Events bring a lot of money into Dublin through pubs/hotels/restaurants and shopping etc

No way will other countries keep there hospitality/entertainment industries closed like your suggesting mid-late 2021

"Stats are nonsense but they also show pubs were fine so open the pubs".
From anyone I spoke to who hit the pubs when they were open most of them went once and were like "**** that" and never went back.
I know of 2 clusters in my town from 2 pubs, neither showed up in the stats. One of the lads told me straight up there were 10 of them at a table, 8 tested positive within a week.

I love that people go on as if the government want to have restrictions, it's a nonsense.
Once the old and vulnerable are vaccinated and numbers fall properly we'll get towards some normality. It remains to be seen how long it will take for numbers to come down.

And as for the "It'll go on forever" nonsense. People won't take it. As much as the louder people have been complaining about restrictions all along, most people are accepting them as necessary until it's sorted. If we're told near the end of the year that we have to keep distance then that'll be the end of it and people will take their chances.

peasant wrote: »

It will all take a lot longer than we think.

Sure, at some point in the not too distant future (autumn this year perhaps?) we will reach a point where due to vaccination, social distancing and lockdowns we will have brought the virus to manageable to negligible numbers and some normalcy will return.

But the virus still exists, it will turn up in small pockets all over the world and, if not contained, it will spread again. We will have localised lockdowns all over the planet for years to come

This will only truly end once the virus has mutated to a point where it becomes a lot less infectious than it currently is. Until such time we will have to remain vigilant and get vaccinated several times.

Sorry to be such a downer

How? If people are vaccinated it won't spread.

Bracken81

I've a question I've not seen any journalists ask so far, probably wasted on here in fairness :-)

At 40,000 vaccinations per week......into a population of 5 million = 125 weeks to complete all
(this is only based on a 1 jab I believe, not the required 2 jabs with the vaccines)


Doesn't make for good reading and truly hope that timeframe is gutted by quite some margin

peasant

Deleted User wrote: »

How? If people are vaccinated it won't spread.

Not everybody will be vaccinated. There are people that refuse for example.
We don't know yet how long any given vaccine actually will make you immune.
There are regions in the world where vaccinating everybody simply can't be done (financed)

This will always create little pockets for the virus to hang about and spread with the next person that travels to or from that pocket.

Also, the virus will mutate (it does so constantly). Hopefully it will mutate itself out of existence or at least out of being so dangerous ...but it could easily go the other way as well.

That's why we will have to keep our guard up for years to come.
(By that I don't mean that we will have to remain in lockdown in perpetuity, but for example testing for the virus may become standard procedure when you present at your GP (or pharmacy?) with "a cold".)

JDD

peasant wrote: »

Not everybody will be vaccinated. There are people that refuse for example.
We don't know yet how long any given vaccine actually will make you immune.
There are regions in the world where vaccinating everybody simply can't be done (financed)

This will always create little pockets for the virus to hang about and spread with the next person that travels to or from that pocket.

Also, the virus will mutate (it does so constantly). Hopefully it will mutate itself out of existence or at least out of being so dangerous ...but it could easily go the other way as well.

That's why we will have to keep our guard up for years to come.
(By that I don't mean that we will have to remain in lockdown in perpetuity, but for example testing for the virus may become standard procedure when you present at your GP (or pharmacy?) with "a cold".)

There will be enough older and vulnerable people vaccinated that any spikes in hospitalisations will be manageable without restrictions.

It won't matter if someone who hasn't been vaccinated travels back from Morocco or Argentina or wherever. The outbreak will be manageable without social distancing, masks or restrictions.

I take the point that the virus might mutate to something more dangerous, but to be honest that's unlikely. It's more likely that the dominant strain in the future will be something that is less deadly. That how it has worked with previous SARS viruses.

IF the virus remains as dangerous as it is now, and IF it turns out that the vaccine only provides you with a limited time of immunity and IF the number of people getting their yearly top up vaccine drops off significantly then MAYBE we will need some short term restrictions until most people are re-vaccinated. But that's a lot of ifs.

It's more likely that the vaccine will provide us with a longer immunity period, and/or the virus will become less potent, in which case it is unlikely we'll see anything like the last 10 months in relation to covid again.

And I completely disagree with the poster saying "lets keep things tight" until Christmas. If people are vaccinated, things open. Everything. Theatre, outdoor festivals, football, pubs. Everything. We closed them based on evidence, and we will open them based on evidence. You cannot take away someone's livelihood based on unfounded nervousness. Go speak to a therapist if you find yourself stressed at the idea of reopening fully.

Richard Hillman

Bracken81 wrote: »

I've a question I've not seen any journalists ask so far, probably wasted on here in fairness :-)

At 40,000 vaccinations per week......into a population of 5 million = 125 weeks to complete all
(this is only based on a 1 jab I believe, not the required 2 jabs with the vaccines)


Doesn't make for good reading and truly hope that timeframe is gutted by quite some margin

And when the 2 years are up, people will have to re-up on the vaccine. Although reality is that we'll be lucky to get 50% uptake on the jab

Alf Veedersane

Bracken81 wrote: »

I've a question I've not seen any journalists ask so far, probably wasted on here in fairness :-)

At 40,000 vaccinations per week......into a population of 5 million = 125 weeks to complete all
(this is only based on a 1 jab I believe, not the required 2 jabs with the vaccines)


Doesn't make for good reading and truly hope that timeframe is gutted by quite some margin

They've said they expect to have 1.4 million doses delivered by end of March so can fully vaccinate 700k.

The expectation is that quantities being delivered will ramp up after that and more vaccines will come into the mix. Oxford/AZ will be next and that will add to Pfizer/BT and Moderna.

So assuming deliveries ramp up, there is scope to vaccinate at a greater rate.

But factor in HSE making a bit of a balls of it or just generally the set up being less than optimal.

DubLad69

I'm hoping that as the numbers of vaccines avaliable increase that we will start to see the effects by late Feb. With a reduction in hospitalizations, and some reduction in cases. March we will move to level 4 (or 3 plus).

By April, I expect the death rate to be almost zero due to the vulnerable being vaccinated so we can safely move to level 3. By May we will have a large cohort vaccinated or having some level of immunity and numbers will fall fast, we can move to level 3. I would hope that by July we can resume normal activities.

I expect he vaccination program will continue until early October. At this point anyone who wants one will have one. We will need to keep negative PCR test or proof of vaccination as a condition of travel, to incentivise others to get the vaccination.

Mr. Karate

Fighting Tao wrote: »

I sell tin foil hats for a living. Running short of them at the moment as they have become the latest fashion trend. Would you like to buy one? You need to be quick.

The original lockdown was only supposed to last a couple of week. We were locked down for 3 months and even then begrudgingly started the re-opening process.

So its not tin foil hat conspiracy that they'll shift the goal posts. They've done it time and again ["the numbers just aren't there yet." anyone?]

peasant

peasant wrote: »

Not everybody will be vaccinated. There are people that refuse for example.
We don't know yet how long any given vaccine actually will make you immune.
There are regions in the world where vaccinating everybody simply can't be done (financed)

This will always create little pockets for the virus to hang about and spread with the next person that travels to or from that pocket.

Also, the virus will mutate (it does so constantly). Hopefully it will mutate itself out of existence or at least out of being so dangerous ...but it could easily go the other way as well.

That's why we will have to keep our guard up for years to come.
(By that I don't mean that we will have to remain in lockdown in perpetuity, but for example testing for the virus may become standard procedure when you present at your GP (or pharmacy?) with "a cold".)

Yeah so it'll become just another illness. Everyone can move on with their lives.

Datacore

If the vaccines provide solid immunity that lasts, it will begin to end this year sometime. It will all be down to vaccine supply which is ramping up in the European system now. It’s just been a more cautious initial rollout than the U.K. but I suspect that gap will close rapidly.

I think we are probably kidding ourselves if we think it will be this summer though.

The airlines have all been focused on 2022-2023 as a potential date for a return to normality and I think they’re being realistic, unlike many political commentators.

I suspect we’ll see it fizzle into the background bit by bit, rather than some big dramatic end of COVID and eventually we’ll start to feel comfortable again.

jackofalltrades

JDD wrote: »

There will be enough older and vulnerable people vaccinated that any spikes in hospitalisations will be manageable without restrictions.
It won't matter if someone who hasn't been vaccinated travels back from Morocco or Argentina or wherever. The outbreak will be manageable without social distancing, masks or restrictions.

Based on what? This comes across as pure speculation.

And I completely disagree with the poster saying "lets keep things tight" until Christmas. If people are vaccinated, things open. Everything. Theatre, outdoor festivals, football, pubs. Everything. We closed them based on evidence, and we will open them based on evidence.

100% agree. If/when hospitalisations and cases decreases sustainably due to vaccinations, restrictions should be lifted.

Fighting Tao

Mr. Karate wrote: »

The original lockdown was only supposed to last a couple of week. We were locked down for 3 months and even then begrudgingly started the re-opening process.

So its not tin foil hat conspiracy that they'll shift the goal posts. They've done it time and again ["the numbers just aren't there yet." anyone?]

Do you really think that the government wants the pandemic or to have lockdowns?

Do you think they want to keep people locked down for years?

If your answer is yes to either question, then you believe it is a conspiracy theory.

Dempo1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

"Stats are nonsense but they also show pubs were fine so open the pubs".
From anyone I spoke to who hit the pubs when they were open most of them went once and were like "**** that" and never went back.
I know of 2 clusters in my town from 2 pubs, neither showed up in the stats. One of the lads told me straight up there were 10 of them at a table, 8 tested positive within a week.

I love that people go on as if the government want to have restrictions, it's a nonsense.
Once the old and vulnerable are vaccinated and numbers fall properly we'll get towards some normality. It remains to be seen how long it will take for numbers to come down.

And as for the "It'll go on forever" nonsense. People won't take it. As much as the louder people have been complaining about restrictions all along, most people are accepting them as necessary until it's sorted. If we're told near the end of the year that we have to keep distance then that'll be the end of it and people will take their chances.


How? If people are vaccinated it won't spread.

Unfortunately incorrect, there is ZERO evidence yet that the vaccines stop transmission of the virus. Furthermore its not been fully proven the vaccines prevent re infection long term. I'm genuinely happy about the vaccine Roll out but some fundamental questions remain unanswered, admitidly this is to be expected at this early stage but I get a sense there's a narrative towards "the virus has been beaten or stop in its tracks" being forceably pushed by governments world wide when this can not be proven yet.

It's seems rather alarming that 10 months into this, greater understanding of the virus, improved treatments and now vaccines, we are seeing alarming surges in infections and increasing deaths. I would have anticipated the opposite given at tge start of this horror story no one knew anything.