When will it all end?

Risteard81

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

I am confident they will hit this target.

Unfortunately they are far too untrustworthy. I doubt that they have any intention of ending restrictions. They simply are trying to keep their backbenchers at bay. Boris has enjoyed imposing totalitarian rule.

ypres5

W123-80's wrote: »

No. I'm not moving the goalposts.
You stated the UK government can put a date on a permanent end to this.
I asked for a link to this. Any link. I didn't ask for a link to the UK government plan. There would have been no point in me asking for a link to the UK Government plan, as I have already read it and I know it contains no dates for a permanent end.
It contains dates that they hope to meet depending on the data.
These dates may or may not need to be pushed out. This is quite clear from reading the plan.

I'm not going to be a dick and ask for the link again. I appreciate your understanding of their plan is that they will open society like it's 2019 in June.
I hope you are right, but I fear that will not happen and I think Boris Johnson is failing to manage the expectations of his population.
As I said I hope and pray I am wrong, but I would be very very surprised if Covid "ends" in the UK in June.

you're asking me a question i can't answer. if you don't believe that the uk are telling the truth that's up to you but i can only go by what they say and what they have said is an irreversible end to restrictions by june. it's not my ' understanding' it says so in black and white in the article

W123-80's

ypres5 wrote: »

you're asking me a question i can't answer. if you don't believe that the uk are telling the truth that's up to you but i can only go by what they say and what they have said is an irreversible end to restrictions by june. it's not my ' understanding' it says so in black and white in the article

I didn't say The UK weren't telling the truth.
It is my opinion their caveat laden plan is not proof of a permanent end to Covid rather an over ambitious plan that fails to manage expectations.
Putting dates on something and then littering each stage with wording that allows dates to be moved is not a garauntee of anything. At all.

I hope they nail every single date, because if they do it bodes well for vaccine efficacy and that is good news for us.
If they hit their party like it's 2019 date in June, we won't be far behind them.

I just think that is incredibly ambitious and a little irresponsible.

I hope I'm wrong. I don't think I am.
We will find out 3 months.

jhegarty

Scotty # wrote: »

Isreal's numbers have been on the increase for the last 6 days in a row unfortunately, despite 1km lockdown and 50% vaccinated. 4,100 new cases just yesterday. Serious/critical numbers on the rise too.

If you are using worldometers the data is wrong for Isreal. They have a zero for the 20th and pushed the numbers in the following day. That messed up the 7 day averages.

Kunta Kinte

Risteard81 wrote: »

Unfortunately they are far too untrustworthy. I doubt that they have any intention of ending restrictions. They simply are trying to keep their backbenchers at bay. Boris has enjoyed imposing totalitarian rule.

Oh right so the UK is a totalitarian state now too? :rolleyes: What states, if any, don`t fit into this category in your opinion?

ujjjjjjjjj

Risteard81 wrote: »

Unfortunately they are far too untrustworthy. I doubt that they have any intention of ending restrictions. They simply are trying to keep their backbenchers at bay. Boris has enjoyed imposing totalitarian rule.

Well we will find out.....I have little doubt in their plan. The UK has copped on they can't afford to continue with this much longer....and are ploughing everything into the vaccine roleout. As of today 39.2% of their adult population has been jabbed.

Once it moves along they will open up.

Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash or if the problem is distribution get the ****ing army involved.
Pathetic stuff all around along with a bunch of nodding simpletons trying to tell us we're doing amazingly well.

ypres5

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash or if the problem is distribution get the ****ing army involved.
Pathetic stuff all around along with a bunch of nodding simpletons trying to tell us we're doing amazingly well.

we should definitely start thinking outside the box, the czech republic approved the sputnik vaccine today why can't we look into that even as a backup option?

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash or if the problem is distribution get the ****ing army involved.

It is supply not distribution that is the problem.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is supply not distribution that is the problem.

Then get on to the Brits. Do ****ing something other than nodding and ****ing drooling.

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

the government said this week that they aim to have 85% of over 18s given their first shot by june. once that's done why can't we follow a version of the uk plan adjusted to accommodate our own vaccination schedule? the uk are looking to kickstart international travel by the summer meanwhile here they're talking about limits on international travel going into 2022. also how does criticizing government message = being ratty?

There is no certainty in that you know. The UK have only promised that international travel restrictions will be reviewed by the beginning of the summer - with absolutely no guarantees and a whole left of conditions which if not met - then nothing is going to change.

The earliest date people from England will be able to travel abroad for a holiday is 17 May , when the country moves in to step three of its lockdown exit plan.

Again, that's if the government is satisfied the four tests are being met.

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52646738

The other thing to remember - is that in the UK - they majority of the population are only being offered their first vaccine jab - with a delay of a min of 3 months before they get their second.

That's not going to be enough for a lot of countries entries requirements as far as I can see.

drunkmonkey

It's behind a paywall in the Belfast Telegraph, if they announced this today it's going to put pressure on our government for an end date..

"Restaurants and pubs will reopen fully by early summer under the local roadmap out of lockdown.

The phased lifting of coronavirus restrictions, leaked to Sunday Life ahead of publication tomorrow, will see a gradual return to normality by the end of June.

The staggered approach to getting back to normal, which is not tied to specific dates, will begin with what the Executive is billing as "cautious first steps".
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/news/roadmap-envisages-pubs-fully-open-by-the-early-summer-40138959.html

Nqp15hhu

I must say the NI executive are particularly strict within the U.K. We have been in lockdown since December 26th, we were due to come out at the end of February. Now that has been pushed to April.

I firmly believe that we will not come out of lockdown until May and at that point it will be a limited removal of restrictions. I believe they will use the lack of vaccinations in ROI as an excuse.

The fact that they have used data will give them any old excuse to pull us back in. I don’t have any hope or trust that they won’t let go. They have constantly raised the bar and will still be saying times are tough when we have all been vaccinated.

Diarmuid

Scotty # wrote: »

France is under a 6pm-6am curfew for which you must have a certificate to break. Travel limit is 1km. Heavier limits at weekends. €135 fine for breaches.

There is an overnight curfew which you can break for a whole bunch of reasons that you self certify with your phone

There's no 1km limit

For this weekend and next in two areas (out of 90) there's a 5km restriction. For 4 days. Not like the 6 months you are experiencing in Ireland. It may be extended but history shows that if they do extend it, it will be for a very limited period of time

I've been in France since Christmas. It's a million miles from the Irish experience. Both the restrictions, the attitude and the government response.

bucketybuck

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash or if the problem is distribution get the ****ing army involved.
Pathetic stuff all around along with a bunch of nodding simpletons trying to tell us we're doing amazingly well.

There are a lot of sycophants will fight against any criticism of the government, but even they cannot argue that there has been a failure of politics in this regard.

Our closest neighbour is firing out nearly half a million doses of the vaccine daily. While after two months Ireland still hasn't done that amount in total.

The sycophants bleat about supply issues but are you really telling me that a deal could not have been done with our closest neighbour? That there was not a single agreement that could have been made, not one bit of leverage anywhere, not a concession that they would have been interested in?

And don't give me that rubbish about the EU not allowing it, that didn't bother the likes of Germany did it. This is life or death, stop worrying about the EU, they aren't really going to give a **** if Ireland does a deal for a few million doses, its small fry in the greater scheme of things.

Something could have been done but instead this incredibly weak government did nothing, just as they have done throughout this crisis.

Scotty #

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash

We already did. It didn't go well.

gozunda

bucketybuck wrote: »

There are a lot of sycophants will fight against any criticism of the government, but even they cannot argue that there has been a failure of politics in this regard.

Our closest neighbour is firing out nearly half a million doses of the vaccine daily. While after two months Ireland still hasn't done that amount in total.

The sycophants bleat about supply issues but are you really telling me that a deal could not have been done with our closest neighbour? That there was not a single agreement that could have been made, not one bit of leverage anywhere, not a concession that they would have been interested in?

And don't give me that rubbish about the EU not allowing it, that didn't bother the likes of Germany did it. This is life or death, stop worrying about the EU, they aren't really going to give a **** if Ireland does a deal for a few million doses, its small fry in the greater scheme of things.

Something could have been done but instead this incredibly weak government did nothing, just as they have done throughout this crisis.

Not sure you know what the word sycophant means ....

The UK have been doing very well. And fair play to them.

The UKs main objective at the moment is to fully vaccinate its own population . They are pursuing a programme of administrating the first dose of vaccine with 20 million people in the UK having received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.

Whilst the UK are manufacturing some of their own supplies of vaccine - they are also dependent on importing a large percentage of vaccines from abroad

The Pfizer-BioNTech jab - the first to be given the green light in December - is being imported from Puurs, Belgium.

A second vaccine, from Oxford University and AstraZeneca, is being made in Britain by two biotech companies: Oxford BioMedica, based in Oxford; and Cobra Biologics, based at Keele Science Park, Staffs.

Supplies of a third vaccine to be approved, made by US company Moderna, will come from Europe but are not expected to be available until later next month.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

It looks like we might have to look elsewhere than the UK for quota over and beyond the EU allocation..

Scotty #

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Once they hit 21st June all going well they will lift all legal restrictions and anything will just be advisory after that and good luck with that.....

I am confident they will hit this target.

I'm not so confident they'll hit their required parameters by 21st June but they will get there by the end of the summer all going well.

It's going to be very interesting!!

donfers

Predictions:

From August/September we will see most non essential-businesses open

wearing masks, sanitizing and social distancing will continue until 2023 and still will be prevalent to a minor extent thereafter

International travel will be restricted until 2023 and even then will be severly compromised i.e. think of the long check-in delays and new regulations post 9/11

Remote working and offline learning increase to 40/50% of total from 2023

Hand-shaking to be socially stigmatised i.e. treated akin to picking one's nose

Mass outdoor events to be re-introduced on a regional basis i.e. UK from mid 2021, Ireland from early 2022 with added layers of both hygiene and vaccine Id protocols

Feel a bit sorry for the yoof really as the next 3 - 4 years will see society slowly reopening but with all sorts of ball-aches attached

gozunda

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I must say the NI executive are particularly strict within the U.K. We have been in lockdown since December 26th, we were due to come out at the end of February. Now that has been pushed to April.

I firmly believe that we will not come out of lockdown until May and at that point it will be a limited removal of restrictions. I believe they will use the lack of vaccinations in ROI as an excuse.

The fact that they have used data will give them any old excuse to pull us back in. I don’t have any hope or trust that they won’t let go. They have constantly raised the bar and will still be saying times are tough when we have all been vaccinated.

I take it you are in NI?

Despite much of the media headlines I believe both the UK and Ireland are pursuing a cautious approach to opening up.

Is it likely that the UK policy of prioritising the first shot of the vaccine - with a second dose up to 12 weeks later also have a knock on effect?

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

There is no certainty in that you know. The UK have only promised that international travel restrictions will be reviewed by the beginning of the summer - with absolutely no guarantees and a whole left of conditions which if not met - then nothing is going to change.



https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52646738

The other thing to remember - is that in the UK - they majority of the population are only being offered their first vaccine jab - with a delay of a min of 3 months before they get their second.

That's not going to be enough for a lot of countries entries requirements as far as I can see.

That's why i said theyre LOOKING at restarting travel in the summer. you're about the third person to try and correct me about something ive already said in my post. im only telling people what the uk government have said and I know it's not set in stone but at least they have a plan to do so which is more than we have here

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

That's why i said theyre LOOKING at restarting travel in the summer. you're about the third person to try and correct me about something ive already said in my post. im only telling people what the uk government have said and I know it's not set in stone but at least they have a plan to do so which is more than we have here

Yes that was highlighted. My comment was directed at th general idea in this forum and elsewhere that Borisis announcements means restrictions in the UK are somehow highly likley than here to be rolled back. Reading the small print - there's no certainty in that.

The UK government have clearly called out their "roadmap" (not a plan') and that any changes will be based on "data not dates" and the promised assessment of the situation in April comes with a whole raft of conditions before any change are to be made

This assessment will be based on four tests:

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.

Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions

Despite having very different vaccination rates here compared to the UK - Ireland also has a current albeit much less detailed 'roadmap".

But with the exception of possible dates etc - it more or less lays out a similar cautious approach to roll back of current restrictions subject to similar conditions from April onwards

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c80ef-current-public-health-restrictions-to-continue-until-5th-april/

And btw I'm not saying they are the same. At this point in time I don't believe our own roadmap can be as detailed as the UKs.

ujjjjjjjjj

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not so confident they'll hit their required parameters by 21st June but they will get there by the end of the summer all going well.

It's going to be very interesting!!

Let's just hope it all goes well - if the UK gets open due to the North it will force the Irish government to move at broadly the same pace - i.e pubs & hotels open up over the border, you can fly off to Greek beaches from Belfast etc etc.

Whether we like it or not whatever happens in the North we will have to broadly follow unless we continue to impose draconian 5km travel restrictions, essential work travel only etc and Garda checks and I just can't see that holding into the summer.

And of course the North will also have to broadly follow what is going on in the mainland UK..............due to free travel between the UK and NI.

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

Yes that was highlighted. My comment was directed at th general idea in this forum and elsewhere that Borisis announcements means restrictions in the UK are somehow highly likley than here to be rolled back. Reading the small print - there's no certainty in that.

The UK government have clearly called out their "roadmap" (not a plan') and that any changes will be based on "data not dates" and the promised assessment of the situation in April comes with a whole raft of conditions before any change are to be made



https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions

Despite having very different vaccination rates here compared to the UK - Ireland also has a current albeit much less detailed 'roadmap".

But with the exception of possible dates etc - it more or less lays out a similar cautious approach to roll back of current restrictions subject to similar conditions from April onwards

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c80ef-current-public-health-restrictions-to-continue-until-5th-april/

And btw I'm not saying they are the same. At this point in time I don't believe our own roadmap can be as detailed as the UKs.

but the irish government haven't given dates on when things like international travel will restart and weve also been told there's going to be continuing restrictions going into next year, something the british people haven't been told. the two countries plans are like chalk and cheese

SheepsClothing

bucketybuck wrote: »

There are a lot of sycophants will fight against any criticism of the government, but even they cannot argue that there has been a failure of politics in this regard.

Our closest neighbour is firing out nearly half a million doses of the vaccine daily. While after two months Ireland still hasn't done that amount in total.

The sycophants bleat about supply issues but are you really telling me that a deal could not have been done with our closest neighbour? That there was not a single agreement that could have been made, not one bit of leverage anywhere, not a concession that they would have been interested in?

And don't give me that rubbish about the EU not allowing it, that didn't bother the likes of Germany did it. This is life or death, stop worrying about the EU, they aren't really going to give a **** if Ireland does a deal for a few million doses, its small fry in the greater scheme of things.

Something could have been done but instead this incredibly weak government did nothing, just as they have done throughout this crisis.

Why in the world would the UK give their vaccine supply to us when they are nowhere near finished themselves?

Regardless of the pace the UK are going at now, their aim is for every adult to be offered a first dose by July. There is every chance we will reach that milestone at the same time or even before then with the promised supply from the EU program.

SheepsClothing

ypres5 wrote: »

but the irish government haven't given dates on when things like international travel will restart and weve also been told there's going to be continuing restrictions going into next year, something the british people haven't been told. the two countries plans are like chalk and cheese

The British have been told there may be a need for measures in winter 2021.

bucketybuck

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Why in the world would the UK give their vaccine supply to us when they are nowhere near finished themselves?

That would be politics, which can be hard, and like a lot of difficult things is probably why our government haven't bothered to try any of it.

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

but the irish government haven't given dates on when things like international travel will restart and weve also been told there's going to be continuing restrictions going into next year, something the british people haven't been told. the two countries plans are like chalk and cheese

Thats where some are putting their own spin on the UK roadmap. Go and read the link to the UK roadmap again. It doesn't detail any changes to International travel. What it does say is that - International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May.

Of note both the UK and Ireland have realeased 'roadmaps' not plans

The UK 'dates' given are little more than purely suggestive. The detail of the UK roadmap clearly states that any roll back of restrictions will be based in "data not dates".

In addition all changes in the UK will be subject to meeting the criteria specified for the assessment , any of which which may derail that process

This assessment will be based on four tests.
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions


None of the UKs rollback of restrictions are set in stone despite what various media are headlining.

As was pointed out already - the roadmaps are quite different except In one major regard - both advocate a cautious approach to the rollback of restrictions.

And interestingly enough - neither the UK or Irish roadmaps linked call out what will happen in 2022.

ujjjjjjjjj

gozunda wrote: »

Thats where some are putting their own spin on the UK roadmap. Go and read the comment again.

Of note both the UK and Ireland have realeased 'roadmaps' not plans

The UK 'dates' given are little more than purely suggestive. The detail of the UK roadmap clearly states that any roll back of restrictions will be based in "data not dates".

In addition all changes in the UK will be subject to meeting the criteria specified for the assessment , any of which which may derail that process



https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c80ef-current-public-health-restrictions-to-continue-until-5th-april/

None of the UKs rollback of restrictions are set in stone despite what various media are headlining.

And interestingly enough - neither the UK or Irish roadmaps linked call out what will happen in 2022.

Look no country is going to roll out a roadmap saying that 'no matter what' we are reopening.....all you can do is look at the detail in a plan and hope it goes according to plan but at least in the UK they have a plan and an aspiration and along with an astonishingly successful vaccine roleout it gives people hope. It also means that they will have to clearly justify not meeting any of these dates rather than the current Irish approach which is much more vague. Politically it will be a problem for Boris to u-turn on dates, in Ireland there isn't that pressure.

I hope it all goes well in the UK as it can only help move things along here.

Irish Stones

donfers wrote: »

Predictions:

From August/September we will see most non essential-businesses open

wearing masks, sanitizing and social distancing will continue until 2023 and still will be prevalent to a minor extent thereafter

International travel will be restricted until 2023 and even then will be severly compromised i.e. think of the long check-in delays and new regulations post 9/11

Remote working and offline learning increase to 40/50% of total from 2023

Hand-shaking to be socially stigmatised i.e. treated akin to picking one's nose

Mass outdoor events to be re-introduced on a regional basis i.e. UK from mid 2021, Ireland from early 2022 with added layers of both hygiene and vaccine Id protocols

Feel a bit sorry for the yoof really as the next 3 - 4 years will see society slowly reopening but with all sorts of ball-aches attached

I agree with all of the above!
I'd foreseen this myself, but I was criticised.