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When will it all end?
Comments
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Predictions:
From August/September we will see most non essential-businesses open
wearing masks, sanitizing and social distancing will continue until 2023 and still will be prevalent to a minor extent thereafter
International travel will be restricted until 2023 and even then will be severly compromised i.e. think of the long check-in delays and new regulations post 9/11
Like last year, international travel will be restricted in Ireland only, whether that's an outright ban on non-essential or 'guidance'. The rest of Europe will be travelling this summer.
@ Gozunda : The UK roadmap states that UK travel won't be allowed before 17th May - their plan is to open up for travel this summer. That's abundantly clear.0 -
Thats where some are putting their own spin on the UK roadmap. Go and read the link to the UK roadmap again. It doesn't detail any changes to International travel.
Of note both the UK and Ireland have realeased 'roadmaps' not plans
The UK 'dates' given are little more than purely suggestive. The detail of the UK roadmap clearly states that any roll back of restrictions will be based in "data not dates".
In addition all changes in the UK will be subject to meeting the criteria specified for the assessment , any of which which may derail that process
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions
None of the UKs rollback of restrictions are set in stone despite what various media are headlining.
As was pointed out already - the roadmaps are quite different except In one major regard - both advocate a cautious approach to the rollback of restrictions.
And interestingly enough - neither the UK or Irish roadmaps linked call out what will happen in 2022.
The date for international holidays to be allowed is not before 17 May, although this date was listed in the roadmap as being subject to review.
your best tell sky news they're putting a spin as well. and before you feel the need to point out it's subject to review for the 4th time when I've already previously acknowledged that fact it's still further down the line planning than we've done here
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-travel-and-aviation-boris-johnson-says-no-international-holidays-until-at-least-17-may-122260150 -
but the irish government haven't given dates on when things like international travel will restart and weve also been told there's going to be continuing restrictions going into next year, something the british people haven't been told. the two countries plans are like chalk and cheese
Have you considered the possibility that the Irish Govt. don't know when international travel will be possible and the UK Govt. don't know either & might have to row back on their tentative dates?
I think its pretty much a certainty there will be restrictions of some sort next year. That is hardly surprising. Again, The UK govt. may have to row back on their tentative dates.
I agree both countries plans and communication methods are chalk and cheese. It doesn't change the fact that if the UK by some miracle open up and party like its 2019 in 3 months time, we won't be far behind them. But that is highly unlikely.
If the Irish Govt. issued a plan tomorrow morning that mirrored the dates and wording of the UK plan, it would change absolutely nothing though.
Everything is dependent on vaccine efficacy, variants and data. Not made up dates.
Everywhere. Not just in Ireland.
All over the world.0 -
We are being asked to give our supply away too to give to poorer nations who need it more.SheepsClothing wrote: »Why in the world would the UK give their vaccine supply to us when they are nowhere near finished themselves?
It's called Covax and it does make sense. It's being pushed by the WHO and particularly by Mike Ryan.
The wealthier nations of the world with the better health systems who can manage covid better are asked to donate their vaccines to nations with poorer health systems. Over 100 nations on Earth have not yet given their FIRST covid jab!! That's a really sad statistic from a humanitarian point of view. Should Ireland and the UK be vaccinating their healthy 35 year olds when Chad or Haiti hasn't even started vacc'ing their 85 year olds??
The poorer nations are the places where these diseases are going to hang around for decades to come. If we could eradicate it, or at least get it under control there first, then we have a better chance of controlling it long term in developed countries.
We'll probably end up making a token donations of a few thousand at some stage. Anyway, it's a debate for another thread.0 -
Summer 2022 before we are 100% back to normal?0
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Have you considered the possibility that the Irish Govt. don't know when international travel will be possible and the UK Govt. don't know either & might have to row back on their tentative dates?
I think its pretty much a certainty there will be restrictions of some sort next year. That is hardly surprising. Again, The UK govt. may have to row back on their tentative dates.
I agree both countries plans and communication methods are chalk and cheese. It doesn't change the fact that if the UK by some miracle open up and party like its 2019 in 3 months time, we won't be far behind them. But that is highly unlikely.
If the Irish Govt. issued a plan tomorrow morning that mirrored the dates and wording of the UK plan, it would change absolutely nothing though.
Everything is dependent on vaccine efficacy, variants and data. Not made up dates.
Everywhere. Not just in Ireland.
All over the world.
i feel like I'm banging my head against the wall having to keep repeating the fact that i can only go by what the uk government are saying and why they're saying is that restrictions are planned to come to an end in June and travel is restarting in may. if you feel you know better than the uk government about their own plans like others here good for you but don't try and spin your speculation about dates being moved back as fact0 -
Have you considered the possibility that the Irish Govt. don't know when international travel will be possible and the UK Govt. don't know either & might have to row back on their tentative dates?
I think its pretty much a certainty there will be restrictions of some sort next year. That is hardly surprising. Again, The UK govt. may have to row back on their tentative dates.
I agree both countries plans and communication methods are chalk and cheese. It doesn't change the fact that if the UK by some miracle open up and party like its 2019 in 3 months time, we won't be far behind them. But that is highly unlikely.
If the Irish Govt. issued a plan tomorrow morning that mirrored the dates and wording of the UK plan, it would change absolutely nothing though.
Everything is dependent on vaccine efficacy, variants and data. Not made up dates.
Everywhere. Not just in Ireland.
All over the world.
The UK infection rate has collapsed in the last week while us and many in Europe have plateaued. The vaccine is working and I would be amazed if travel doesn't open by June there. The problem will be who will be low enough to let them in. Greece want them (and the US) but are currently experiencing another wave (despite severe lockdown since before xmas) due to the B111 variant. That said that should have ended by June too. Greece is finding is very easy to vaccinate islands, some of the smaller ones are now 80% vaxxed.0 -
The date for international holidays to be allowed is not before 17 May, although this date was listed in the roadmap as being subject to review.
your best tell sky news they're putting a spin as well. and before you feel the need to point out it's subject to review for the 4th time when I've already previously acknowledged that fact it's still further down the line planning than we've done here
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-travel-and-aviation-boris-johnson-says-no-international-holidays-until-at-least-17-may-12226015
I was replying to the idea that a date for International travel in the UK was set in stone as was suggested. Its not. See the UK roadmap if in any doubt.
I quoted from that roadmap and the conditions
which will be required to be met for international
travel to resume - any of which may derail a decision - so no I have no 'spin". it remains there are no set dates for a return international travel
And yes to repeat what the UK.Gov Roadmap document does say - that International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May.
I wouldn't be buying your flip-flops just yet ...0 -
We are being asked to give our supply away too to give to poorer nations who need it more.
It's called Covax and it does make sense. It's being pushed by the WHO and particularly by Mike Ryan.
The wealthier nations of the world with the better health systems who can manage covid better are asked to donate their vaccines to nations with poorer health systems. Over 100 nations on Earth have not yet given their FIRST covid jab!! That's a really sad statistic from a humanitarian point of view. Should Ireland and the UK be vaccinating their healthy 35 year olds when Chad or Haiti hasn't even started vacc'ing their 85 year olds??
The poorer nations are the places where these diseases are going to hang around for decades to come. If we could eradicate it, or at least get it under control there first, then we have a better chance of controlling it long term in developed countries.
We'll probably end up making a token donations of a few thousand at some stage. Anyway, it's a debate for another thread.
how many 85 year olds do you think haiti and Chad have? covid kills a demographic that doesn't exist in any amount in those countries and considering how mild the majority of covid cases are it's really small potatoes for people who have to cope with much worse illnesses like hiv, malaria, cholera etc0 -
what does the weather have to do with the effectiveness of vaccines? your argument makes absolutely no sense
Most UVC rays are absorbed in the atmosphere but assume a small fraction get through.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/transdyne-corporation-reveals-deadly-ultraviolet-radiation-reaching-earths-surface-300622373.html
https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(20)30809-9/fulltext
One might expect with more sunlight covid19 is less likely to thrive?0 -
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I was relying to the idea that a date for International travel in the UK was set in stone as was suggested. Its not. See the UK roadmap if in any doubt.
I quoted from that roadmap and the conditions
which will be required to be met for international
travel to resume - any of which may derail a decision - so no I have no 'spin". it remains there are no set dates for a return international travel
And yes to repeat what the UK.Gov Roadmap document does say - that International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May.
I wouldn't be buying your flip-flops just yet ...
i won't be buying my flip flops just yet but my family in the uk will be while we're still feckarsing with 5k limits0 -
i feel like I'm banging my head against the wall having to keep repeating the fact that i can only go by what the uk government are saying and why they're saying is that restrictions are planned to come to an end in June and travel is restarting in may. if you feel you know better than the uk government about their own plans like others here good for you but don't try and spin your speculation about dates being moved back as fact
I'm not trying to spin my speculation as fact. Read my messages.
I am saying that the UK Govt. plan does not put a permanent end to restrictions it puts tentative dates on when things might happen depending on the data.
You claimed the UK Govt. were able to put a date on a permanent end to this, if you want to deny that I will find your post but I'd prefer if you just acknowledged it so I don't have to bother!
Now if we are both in agreement that the UK dates don't guarantee a permanent end to Covid we can deal with what their plan does say.
It puts tentative dates on when a reopening of society at different stages might be possible depending on the 4 critical factors they have outlined.
If by some miracle the UK are partying like its 2019 in mid June that is incredibly good news for us and the rest of the global population as it means the data is positive and vaccinations are working. If that scenario manifests we won't be far behind them in having our own 2019 themed party.
It is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.
The Irish Govt. not having a makey uppy date doesn't change a thing. Ireland, The UK, France, Germany etc etc will all emerge from this when it is safe to do so and not very far apart.
I'm not spinning anything as fact. I am correcting your claim that the UK could put a permanent end date on covid. They can't and they haven't.
Regardless how you interpret their document. It is not a guaranteed end date.0 -
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I'm not trying to spin my speculation as fact. Read my messages.
I am saying that the UK Govt. plan does not put a permanent end to restrictions it puts tentative dates on when things might happen depending on the data.
You claimed the UK Govt. were able to put a date on a permanent end to this, if you want to deny that I will find your post but I'd prefer if you just acknowledged it so I don't have to bother!
Now if we are both in agreement that the UK dates don't guarantee a permanent end to Covid we can deal with what their plan does say.
It puts tentative dates on when a reopening of society at different stages might be possible depending on the 4 critical factors they have outlined.
If by some miracle the UK are partying like its 2019 in mid June that is incredibly good news for us and the rest of the global population as it means the data is positive and vaccinations are working. If that scenario manifests we won't be far behind them in having our own 2019 themed party.
It is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.
The Irish Govt. not having a makey uppy date doesn't change a thing. Ireland, The UK, France, Germany etc etc will all emerge from this when it is safe to do so and not very far apart.
I'm not spinning anything as fact. I am correcting your claim that the UK could put a permanent end date on covid. They can't and they haven't.
Regardless how you interpret their document. It is not a guaranteed end date.
which is why I have said they are PLANNING several times in my posts. they are PLANNING on bringing a permanent end to restrictions in june which is what I've said. so far there's been no indication they won't meet that other than baseless speculation and the usual boris man bad routine0 -
I'm not trying to spin my speculation as fact. Read my messages.
I am saying that the UK Govt. plan does not put a permanent end to restrictions it puts tentative dates on when things might happen depending on the data.
You claimed the UK Govt. were able to put a date on a permanent end to this, if you want to deny that I will find your post but I'd prefer if you just acknowledged it so I don't have to bother!
Now if we are both in agreement that the UK dates don't guarantee a permanent end to Covid we can deal with what their plan does say.
It puts tentative dates on when a reopening of society at different stages might be possible depending on the 4 critical factors they have outlined.
If by some miracle the UK are partying like its 2019 in mid June that is incredibly good news for us and the rest of the global population as it means the data is positive and vaccinations are working. If that scenario manifests we won't be far behind them in having our own 2019 themed party.
It is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.
The Irish Govt. not having a makey uppy date doesn't change a thing. Ireland, The UK, France, Germany etc etc will all emerge from this when it is safe to do so and not very far apart.
I'm not spinning anything as fact. I am correcting your claim that the UK could put a permanent end date on covid. They can't and they haven't.
Regardless how you interpret their document. It is not a guaranteed end date.
Where has anyone said that these dates are set in stone. It's a plan... a roadmap... a goal. It's what what they're aiming for. Ypres has highlighted that in his post.0 -
They were just examples as well you know.how many 85 year olds do you think haiti and Chad have? covid kills a demographic that doesn't exist in any amount in those countries...
I'll rephrase the question...
Should the healthy 30 somethings of a wealthy nation be offered a vaccination before the health care workers of a developing nation?0 -
i already responded to your question by saying what I've said 3 or 4 times previous by pointing out that deaths and hospitalizations have reduced significantly in the frontrunners. I don't know how many times i need to keep saying it. what you're saying is we should keep living under restrictions 'just in case' which is ridiculous and unsustainable. the most vulnerable groups are getting their shots so there'll be no reason to continue restrictions and unless you have proof that the weather affects the vaccines efficacy I think it's best to leave it here
Ok. This was he question I asked and you haven’t answered it yet:
“If they vaccinate most of the population in good time before the weather cools, and we drop restrictions and hospitalisation and deaths go way up again, what would you suggest happen next? Reimpose some restrictions again or just let hospitals become overrun?”
If the numbeee tree a good down and stay down then end of restrictions and everyone’s happy. But that’s not the only likely outcome. The numbers going back up to troublesome levels in winter (particularly this coming winter, if we haven’t managed to vaccinate enough people yet) is a possibility and the question I asked you was about what you would want the government to do if that possibility is realised.
Have a go at answering it anyway.0 -
Where has anyone said that these dates are set in stone. It's a plan... a roadmap... a goal. It's what what they're aiming for. Ypres has highlighted that in his post.
thank you for understanding what I'm saying. ive already acknowledged its not set in stone and that it's what the government in the uk are planning on doing subject to change but it's a more progressive and faster moving plan than what we have here.0 -
which is why I have said they are PLANNING several times in my posts. they are PLANNING on bringing a permanent end to restrictions in june which is what I've said. so far there's been no indication they won't meet that other than baseless speculation and the usual boris man bad routineOriginally Posted by ypres5
so we're going vaccinating people but it's not going to make any difference as to moving back to normal? lol makes perfect sense. also the genetic difference thing wasn't a genuine question it was sarcasm in case you had trouble picking it up. my simple question is that if vaccinating the majority of people, whether that happens in June or august or whenever isn't enough to end restrictions what will ? if the uk can put a date on a permanent end why can't we
They haven't put a permanent end date on when it will end as you have claimed above.
As you now realise. It's a plan subject to change.
Personally I think we will emerge from this a roughly the same time as every other nation. I don't think it'll be June. I don't think the UK will be partying like its 2019 in June either, but that's just my opinion. Not a fact.
I think it'll be late summer before we are in a good place. Most likely 2022 before proper normality returns.
Getting hung up on The UK dates is pointless.0 -
for about the 5th time if the majority of the population is vaccinated that won't come into play. either you're not reading what I'm saying or something isn't registering either way I'm not going around in circles with you anymore. if the population is vaccinated then seasonality won't matter
Yeah but you’re just saying the numbers won’t go up this winter. The experts are saying the COULD well go up and they COULD become troublesome again re hospitalisation and death.
Simply ignoring the possibility of that happening might be comforting but it isn’t sensible.0 -
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Like last year, international travel will be restricted in Ireland only, whether that's an outright ban on non-essential or 'guidance'. The rest of Europe will be travelling this summer.
Gozunda : The UK roadmap states that UK travel won't be allowed before 17th May - their plan is to open up for travel this summer. That's abundantly clear.
Its not unfortunately.
The UK ROADMAP explicitly states that holidays in the UK and International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May."following a further review of the data and the four tests". As detailed there is no certainty in this or any specified dates.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions.
As to opinion:
Will the UK domestic holiday sector be reopened at some point in the summer ie June, July, August? My own opinion - more than likley.
Ireland is also likley to do allow similar domestic holidays
Will international travel from the UK happen at some point this year? Reading between the lines - it could be more like August / September..
Will international travel from Ireland happen at some point this year?
Based on our schedule for vaccinations - if it does happen it will be much later than the UK.0 -
The UK infection rate has collapsed in the last week while us and many in Europe have plateaued. The vaccine is working and I would be amazed if travel doesn't open by June there. The problem will be who will be low enough to let them in. Greece want them (and the US) but are currently experiencing another wave (despite severe lockdown since before xmas) due to the B111 variant. That said that should have ended by June too. Greece is finding is very easy to vaccinate islands, some of the smaller ones are now 80% vaxxed.
Fantastic news if it continues on that trajectory.
If their plan works we won't be far behind them in a return to normality.
Current case numbers obviously need to remain suppressed as our vaccination roll out gains momentum to give it the best possible chance of success.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »Ok. This was he question I asked and you haven’t answered it yet:
“If they vaccinate most of the population in good time before the weather cools, and we drop restrictions and hospitalisation and deaths go way up again, what would you suggest happen next? Reimpose some restrictions again or just let hospitals become overrun?”
If the numbeee tree a good down and stay down then end of restrictions and everyone’s happy. But that’s not the only likely outcome. The numbers going back up to troublesome levels in winter (particularly this coming winter, if we haven’t managed to vaccinate enough people yet) is a possibility and the question I asked you was about what you would want the government to do if that possibility is realised.
Have a go at answering it anyway.
I've already answered this but I'll humour you. if we vaccinate the majority of the population and weve already vaccinated the most vulnerable groups of people so we're unlikely to run into the same situation this winter as the last one. we're already on track to have most people given their first shot by june so i don't know where you're getting this idea that we won't have most people vaccinated by winter0 -
They were just examples as well you know.
I'll rephrase the question...
Should the healthy 30 somethings of a wealthy nation be offered a vaccination before the health care workers of a developing nation?
sorry i didn't mean to be so abrasive in my earlier post. at the moment i think it's best that we vaccinate our own people first to get the economy back up and running. 3rd world nations have already suffered more due to our restrictions than from covid itself so i think once our aid programmes get their proper funding we might be in a better position then to help with their vaccination programmes0 -
[Deleted User] wrote: »Jesus ****ing Christ at this point we should be asking the Brits for some of their vaccine stash or if the problem is distribution get the ****ing army involved.
Pathetic stuff all around along with a bunch of nodding simpletons trying to tell us we're doing amazingly well.
Globally Ireland is doing great. We’re only doing as well as we are because we’re part of the EU supply deal. If we were on our own, we’d be at the back of the queue, behind all the bigger and more influential countries (which is lots of countries) and we’d probably be middle of the pack globally. We wouldn’t have started getting vaccine supplies yet. The notion that Ireland could be competing with the uk, is just childish.0 -
Its not unfortunately.
The UK ROADMAP explicitly states that holidays in the UK and International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May."following a further review of the data and the four tests". As detailed there is no certainty in this or any specified dates.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions.
As to opinion:
Will the UK domestic holiday sector be reopened at some point in the summer ie June, July, August? My own opinion - more than likley.
Ireland is also likley to do allow similar domestic holidays
Will international travel from the UK happen at some point this year? Reading between the lines - it could be more like August / September..
Will international travel from Ireland happen at some point this year?
Based on our schedule for vaccinations - if it does happen it will be much later than the UK.
I'm not getting into another pedantic debate with you, especially when you come out with comments such as:
'It doesn't detail any changes to International travel. What it does say is that - International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May.'
So you're saying 'there is no change to international travel in the roadmap, but international travel could be on the cards' - which is it?????
Again, you've just stated above underneath 'unfortunately not' that travel will be reviewed this summer.
I won't be commenting on this again, as like Ypres, I'm banging my head against a brick wall when you are contradicting yourself in the same para.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »Globally Ireland is doing great. We’re only doing as well as we are because we’re part of the EU supply deal. If we were on our own, we’d be at the back of the queue, behind all the bigger and more influential countries (which is lots of countries) and we’d probably be middle of the pack globally. We wouldn’t have started getting vaccine supplies yet. The notion that Ireland could be competing with the uk, is just childish.
Israel had no problem with it. Why would Ireland or anyone else?
I see the UK govt is to update the British public on new Brazilian variant of the disease today. Be interesting to see what is said. Safe to say it's causing some concern over there.
There are 6 cases so far and a massive effort underway to contain it according to Johnson.0 -
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Israel had no problem with it. Why would Ireland or anyone else?
I see the UK govt is to update the British public on new Brazilian variant of the disease today. Be interesting to see what is said. Safe to say it's causing some concern over there.
There are 6 cases so far and a massive effort underway to contain it according to Johnson.
You pick the world leader at vaccine distribution, and you wonder why every other country in the world can't do the same?
A few mins of research will show you why that's just not possible.0 -
I'm not getting into another pedantic debate with you, especially when you come out with comments such as:
'It doesn't detail any changes to International travel. What it does say is that - International travel will be subject to review no earlier than 17 May.'
So you're saying 'there is no change to international travel in the roadmap, but international travel could be on the cards' - which is it?????
Again, you've just stated above underneath 'unfortunately not' that travel will be reviewed this summer.
I won't be commenting on this again, as like Ypres, I'm banging my head against a brick wall when you are contradicting yourself in the same para.
Well you're the one replying to me - so that 'pedantism' aside ...
In context - I was paraphrasing from the UK.Gov Roadmap. Which does not give 'dates' for International travel but does detail that the possibility of international travel will be reviewed on the 17th of May. However in that review there is no certainty when in the year International travel will resume
In in my next comment to another poster - I replied "unfortunately not" to the comment that it was 'abundantly clear" that international travel was definitely going ahead in the summer months.
So by all means keep banging the head on the wall, but I suspect it might be affecting your comprehension skills somewhat...0 -
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Predictions:
From August/September we will see most non essential-businesses open
wearing masks, sanitizing and social distancing will continue until 2023 and still will be prevalent to a minor extent thereafter
International travel will be restricted until 2023 and even then will be severly compromised i.e. think of the long check-in delays and new regulations post 9/11
Remote working and offline learning increase to 40/50% of total from 2023
Hand-shaking to be socially stigmatised i.e. treated akin to picking one's nose
Mass outdoor events to be re-introduced on a regional basis i.e. UK from mid 2021, Ireland from early 2022 with added layers of both hygiene and vaccine Id protocols
Feel a bit sorry for the yoof really as the next 3 - 4 years will see society slowly reopening but with all sorts of ball-aches attached
Jaysus oyur prediction doesnt exactly paint a rosy picture to be fair.
2022 for outdoor events, Christ i hope not.
I dont agree with hand shaking being stigmatized, its going back literally hundreds of years BC through everything history has thrown at us is it really going to be stigmatized for a disease such as Covid with the survival rate it has for the vast majority of people (dangerous and all as it is to a certain group of people)
Its funny apart from the frustration with lockdowns when i take everything else into account , hand sanitizing, social distancing, masks etc i still find not being able to give a handshake one of the most annoying aspects, just this morning meeting people as part of my job, my first instinct was to gesture a handshake.0
This discussion has been closed.
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