When will it all end?

Kermit.de.frog

TheRef wrote: »

You pick the world leader at vaccine distribution, and you wonder why every other country in the world can't do the same?
A few mins of research will show you why that's just not possible.

The EU commission has ballsed this whole process up and I don't accept the propaganda that this country or any other is unable to do something without the EU.

Any disapproval over the vaccines can only be directed one place - Brussels.

You can speculate till the cows come home on where we would be had we gone alone but we are where we are now on the end of incompetence.

Irish Stones

Riodej1578 wrote: »

Summer 2022 before we are 100% back to normal?

I'd say end 2022/beginning 2023 to see some sort of normality.
Forget about 100% normal, that won't ever happen. The new normal will be a new kind of life, not the one we used to know till Dec 2019.

W123-80's

donfers wrote: »

Predictions:
Hand-shaking to be socially stigmatised i.e. treated akin to picking one's nose

We will still be able to shake our own hands whilst waiting at traffic lights, sitting on the toilet etc...:pac:

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'd say end 2022/beginning 2023 to see some sort of normality.
Forget about 100% normal, that won't ever happen. The new normal will be a new kind of life, not the one we used to know till Dec 2019.

When you're finished with the crystal ball, I'd like to borrow it.

Doctor Jimbob

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'd say end 2022/beginning 2023 to see some sort of normality.
Forget about 100% normal, that won't ever happen. The new normal will be a new kind of life, not the one we used to know till Dec 2019.

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

Plumbthedepths

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

My own opinion is they're on a wind up.

seansouth36

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Irish Stones wrote: »

I'd say end 2022/beginning 2023 to see some sort of normality.
Forget about 100% normal, that won't ever happen. The new normal will be a new kind of life, not the one we used to know till Dec 2019.

Given we have had pandemics before (including pandemics without vaccines), the idea that we will never get back to normal is based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

Nqp15hhu

gozunda wrote: »

I take it you are in NI?

Despite much of the media headlines I believe both the UK and Ireland are pursuing a cautious approach to opening up.

Is it likely that the UK policy of prioritising the first shot of the vaccine - with a second dose up to 12 weeks later also have a knock on effect?

England is planning to have everything removed by July. That is not cautious.

Northern Ireland despite following the same trajectory with vaccinations and having lower cases will have a slower release. Because our politicians won’t let go of lockdowns.

As I said we were due to be out of lockdown by now. We are now in lockdown for an additional month, our case rate is the lowest it’s been since September!

Nqp15hhu

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Let's just hope it all goes well - if the UK gets open due to the North it will force the Irish government to move at broadly the same pace - i.e pubs & hotels open up over the border, you can fly off to Greek beaches from Belfast etc etc.

Whether we like it or not whatever happens in the North we will have to broadly follow unless we continue to impose draconian 5km travel restrictions, essential work travel only etc and Garda checks and I just can't see that holding into the summer.

And of course the North will also have to broadly follow what is going on in the mainland UK..............due to free travel between the UK and NI.

Will it? ROI has had some different regulations and rules to us throughout the lockdown.

I can see our politicians in NI using the poor situation down there as an excuse to stay locked down. They don’t want to let go.

Irish Stones

seansouth36 wrote: »

Given we have had pandemics before (including pandemics without vaccines), the idea that we will never get back to normal is based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

Exactly, the key words are "without vaccines", and, I'd say, without masks, lockdowns, restrictions, and we survived. We have gone through several pandemics, and almost nobody remembers them, because we were nearly free to run our lives.

This pandemic will be remembered more for the restrictions and limitations, than for the virus itself.

Irish Stones

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

Sort of normality isn't the same as 100% normal.

Nqp15hhu

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Let's just hope it all goes well - if the UK gets open due to the North it will force the Irish government to move at broadly the same pace - i.e pubs & hotels open up over the border, you can fly off to Greek beaches from Belfast etc etc.

Whether we like it or not whatever happens in the North we will have to broadly follow unless we continue to impose draconian 5km travel restrictions, essential work travel only etc and Garda checks and I just can't see that holding into the summer.

And of course the North will also have to broadly follow what is going on in the mainland UK..............due to free travel between the UK and NI.

Will it? ROI has had some different regulations and rules to us throughout the lockdown.

Nqp15hhu

Scotty # wrote: »

We are being asked to give our supply away too to give to poorer nations who need it more.

It's called Covax and it does make sense. It's being pushed by the WHO and particularly by Mike Ryan.

The wealthier nations of the world with the better health systems who can manage covid better are asked to donate their vaccines to nations with poorer health systems. Over 100 nations on Earth have not yet given their FIRST covid jab!! That's a really sad statistic from a humanitarian point of view. Should Ireland and the UK be vaccinating their healthy 35 year olds when Chad or Haiti hasn't even started vacc'ing their 85 year olds??

The poorer nations are the places where these diseases are going to hang around for decades to come. If we could eradicate it, or at least get it under control there first, then we have a better chance of controlling it long term in developed countries.

We'll probably end up making a token donations of a few thousand at some stage. Anyway, it's a debate for another thread.

If everyone is vaccinated there is no need for restrictions.

seansouth36

Irish Stones wrote: »

Exactly, the key words are "without vaccines", and, I'd say, without masks, lockdowns, restrictions, and we survived. We have gone through several pandemics, and almost nobody remembers them, because we were nearly free to run our lives.

This pandemic will be remembered more for the restrictions and limitations, than for the virus itself.

Well the Spanish Flu didn't have vaccines, but there were lots of restrictions including masks and curfews. The death rate was astonishing, and it affected almost every aspect of life. We are very lucky that technology (large amounts of everything from food production to global shipping is automated) allows to carry on without food shortages/global trade collapse.

Nqp15hhu

Tazz T wrote: »

The UK infection rate has collapsed in the last week while us and many in Europe have plateaued. The vaccine is working and I would be amazed if travel doesn't open by June there. The problem will be who will be low enough to let them in. Greece want them (and the US) but are currently experiencing another wave (despite severe lockdown since before xmas) due to the B111 variant. That said that should have ended by June too. Greece is finding is very easy to vaccinate islands, some of the smaller ones are now 80% vaxxed.

The United States will be one of the last countries to reopen to tourists. They have said they want a COVID test even if you are vaccinated.

They are not desperate for tourists.

the kelt

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

To be fair at least hes giving some form of prediction as per the thread as to when will it end (or not in this case!)

Its better than reading "well it might be like this, or else it might be like that, or it might go this way, or might go this other way" followed by someone giving their opinion as to how it will go, followed by "who told you it would go that way, cos it might go this other way, or this might happen, or that might happen so who told you it was definitely going to happen that way?"

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

Should Ireland and the UK be vaccinating their healthy 35 year olds when Chad or Haiti hasn't even started vacc'ing their 85 year olds??

No. The most ethical thing to do would be to vaccinate the elderly and the vulnerable and then support poorer countries in doing that. Vaccinating healthy 30-somethings is a waste of everyone's time.

Unfortunately, since the media has been intent for over a year on focusing hourly news bulletins on the youngest/healthiest outlier to die from Covid, there are enough healthy 30-something people out there who don't understand the deaths from Covid and how they split by demographic, and would find it unacceptable.

Doctor Jimbob

Irish Stones wrote: »

Sort of normality isn't the same as 100% normal.

I know, but you were saying end 2022 for some sort of normality.

gozunda

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

England is planning to have everything removed by July. That is not cautious.

Northern Ireland despite following the same trajectory with vaccinations and having lower cases will have a slower release. Because our politicians won’t let go of lockdowns.

As I said we were due to be out of lockdown by now. We are now in lockdown for an additional month, our case rate is the lowest it’s been since September!

I strongly suspect much of that is Boris spin. The actual detail (see the 4 tests etc) of the roadmap for England whilst providing dates for reviews - provides a huge amount of wriggle room. The Gov.UK roadmap itself is very cautious imho.

I reckon a lot of restrictions will indeed be rolled back - but not all.

Tazz T

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The United States will be one of the last countries to reopen to tourists. They have said they want a COVID test even if you are vaccinated.

They are not desperate for tourists.

I meant Greece is desperate to get high spending yanks back into Europe (and the US is desperate to get there by the looks of some travel forums).

B.A._Baracus

I would say at this point many people would gladly go back to level 3 than 5.
More open. More to do.

gozunda

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

England is planning to have everything removed by July. That is not cautious.

Northern Ireland despite following the same trajectory with vaccinations and having lower cases will have a slower release. Because our politicians won’t let go of lockdowns.

As I said we were due to be out of lockdown by now. We are now in lockdown for an additional month, our case rate is the lowest it’s been since September!

I strongly suspect much of that is Boris spin. The actual detail (see the 4 tests etc) of the roadmap for England whilst providing dates for reviews - provides a huge amount of wriggle room. The Gov.UK roadmap itself is very cautious imho.

I reckon a lot of restrictions will indeed be rolled back - but not all.

hatrickpatrick

To those pessimists who sincerely suggest that we’ll “never” be back to normal, what specifically do ye envision being permanent?

donfers

another prediction that I would be very confident on is this:

We will ease restrictions for non-essential retail and government will make small compromises on events/sports etc. probably in June. Then in September/October we will see a big spike in case numbers and the usual suspects will panic and tell us to lock everything down but hospital numbers and deaths will remain very low due to vaccinations.

This will be a key moment, will the government panic and lock us down again or will they say "well cases are rising but that's grand because severe illness and deaths are way down". To be honest I am unsure if they will hold their nerve.

Scotty #

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

If everyone is vaccinated there is no need for restrictions.

'Everyone' is never going to be vaccinated. But what if say... 80% are vaccinated but there's a surge and 500/day are testing positive... do you have a (very unpopular with the public) emergency lockdown and hope it's only for a week or two (As NZ are currently doing) or do you leave everything open in the hope it's not 4000/day a week later?? Note that if you choose to wait it out but things do deteriorate further you're now faced with a very strict lockdown for several months.

Which do you choose?

Mr. Karate

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

probably benefiting from the lockdowns. More money from PUP to stay out of work, get to work from home,etc. You can tell who's benefiting from this when they act like they never want this to end.

the kelt

Scotty # wrote: »

'Everyone' is never going to be vaccinated. But what if say... 80% are vaccinated but there's a surge and 500/day are testing positive... do you have a (very unpopular with the public) emergency lockdown and hope it's only for a week or two (As NZ are currently doing) or do you leave everything open in the hope it's not 4000/day a week later?? Note that if you choose to wait it out but things do deteriorate further you're now faced with a very strict lockdown for several months.

Which do you choose?

But it doesnt matter if its 400 cases a day or 1000 cases a day as long as people arent getting sick and hospitalised.

If those that get sick and need hospital care are vaccinated who cares how many case we have?

I thought (rightly so) we brought in lockdowns to stop our hospitals getting over run.

With a Vaccine why would we be obsessing with case numbers and not people getting actually sick?

Tazz T

Scotty # wrote: »

'Everyone' is never going to be vaccinated. But what if say... 80% are vaccinated but there's a surge and 500/day are testing positive... do you have a (very unpopular with the public) emergency lockdown and hope it's only for a week or two (As NZ are currently doing) or do you leave everything open in the hope it's not 4000/day a week later?? Note that if you choose to wait it out but things do deteriorate further you're now faced with a very strict lockdown for several months.

Which do you choose?

Even at 80% vaccination, there is a surge (which is incredibly unlikely unless some mad variant comes along) since vaccination hugely reduces serious illness and deaths become negligible, that's the figure you should be looking at, not positive cases with little or no symptoms

zerosugarbuzz

Mr. Karate wrote: »

probably benefiting from the lockdowns. More money from PUP to stay out of work, get to work from home,etc. You can tell who's benefiting from this when they act like they never want this to end.

More likely civil servants etc. Can’t see many people happy long term on PUP of 350pw

dalyboy

donfers wrote: »

another prediction that I would be very confident on is this:

We will ease restrictions for non-essential retail and government will make small compromises on events/sports etc. probably in June. Then in September/October we will see a big spike in case numbers and the usual suspects will panic and tell us to lock everything down but hospital numbers and deaths will remain very low due to vaccinations.

This will be a key moment, will the government panic and lock us down again or will they say "well cases are rising but that's grand because severe illness and deaths are way down". To be honest I am unsure if they will hold their nerve.

We will be looking at other countries at that point and all of them will be in full swing come Oct or Nov. If the Irish gov panic it’ll be very obvious that it’s due to our sh1t health system and that blame lies with them and only them.

There’s no way in hell businesses will shut down again for the winter 21/22 because of their joke shop management of the health system particularly as we have already lost 18 months (projected by the time we may reopen) of trade. It would be cataclysmic for FFG politically and would have ZERO commercial buy in.