When will it all end?

Scotty #

the kelt wrote: »

But it doesnt matter if its 400 cases a day or 1000 cases a day as long as people arent getting sick and hospitalised.

There's always going to be a % of cases that require hospitalisation but yes, my
hypothetical scenario should have used hospitalisations rather than cases.

The poster stated that if everyone is vaccinated there will be no restrictions. There is no evidence that this will be the case. In fact on the contrary, the evidence shows that we will still need to manage the virus.

Doctor Jimbob

Scotty # wrote: »

There's always going to be a % of cases that require hospitalisation but yes, my
hypothetical scenario should have used hospitalisations rather than cases.

The poster stated that if everyone is vaccinated there will be no restrictions. There is no evidence that this will be the case. In fact on the contrary, the evidence shows that we will still need to manage the virus.

You're probably right in that there will still be a need to manage the virus but I think it's going to be difficult to keep the public on board with restrictions once a large proportion of the population are vaccinated. I think by autumn we'll see a swing from restrictions to advice.

bucketybuck

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We'll have some sort of normality by the end of the summer. I don't know what drives people to post these extremely negative projections.

A year ago it was a massive, massive deal to go into lockdown for a few weeks.

Now such things have become commonplace, we have been in level 5 lockdown for months with statements from our "leaders" that amount to little more than "we are staying locked down, not sure how long for, deal with it".

The overton window has shifted and history tells us that it doesn't shift back, so you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to be worried about what happens next.

seansouth36

bucketybuck wrote: »

A year ago it was a massive, massive deal to go into lockdown for a few weeks.

Now such things have become commonplace, we have been in level 5 lockdown for months with statements from our "leaders" that amount to little more than "we are staying locked down, not sure how long for, deal with it".

The overton window has shifted and history tells us that it doesn't shift back, so you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to be worried about what happens next.

Actually history has shown us that every time a pandemic occurred, the restrictions put in place were eventually lifted. What restrictions put in place during the Spanish Flu stayed in place after it was over? None.

Scotty #

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

You're probably right in that there will still be a need to manage the virus but I think it's going to be difficult to keep the public on board with restrictions once a large proportion of the population are vaccinated. I think by autumn we'll see a swing from restrictions to advice.

Wouldn't that be brilliant and hopefully we have some much better vaccines and treatments coming too.

Irish Stones

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I know, but you were saying end 2022 for some sort of normality.

My sort of normality means that things may look normal, but they won't.
At the end of 2022 we will know a new normality, a sort of normality.
I foresee a good part of 2022 to be like 2020 and 2021.

Scotty #

seansouth36 wrote: »

What restrictions put in place during the Spanish Flu stayed in place after it was over? None.

Metal framed hospital beds rather than wooden.


There are lots of countries that your are not allowed into or come from without vaccination.

Irish Stones

Mr. Karate wrote: »

probably benefiting from the lockdowns. More money from PUP to stay out of work, get to work from home,etc. You can tell who's benefiting from this when they act like they never want this to end.

I'm not getting any money from PUP or other forms of subsidy. I'm working at my workplace, and I've been since last August. I've been home for nearly 5 months last year, and my salary was 60% of the full one, so not a fan of hard lockdowns.

My dark projections are just what I see in my mind due to what we're living now. I'm not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel.
What I also say is that we will remember these years for the rest of our lives, they will be like a permanent scar in our lives, there will always be something that makes us recall what we've been through, and the years we lost/wasted.

How can a life be the same as before with such a scar, it escapes me.

Mr. Karate

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

More likely civil servants etc. Can’t see many people happy long term on PUP of 350pw

If the PUP is more than their regular salary I imagine they're very happy and want this to go on for as long as possible. The negatives of the welfare state.

Kermit.de.frog

I see the Czech Republic along with Finland have introduced tighter measures to control spread of the virus. Poland looks set to announce new measures in the coming days.

Czech Republic: Prime minister Andrej Babis announced the stricter measures last week, saying hospitals were nearing collapse as the number of patients in serious condition jumped to records.

Babis has faced criticism the measures do not go far enough as factories remain open. He is balancing this with public frustration over lockdowns that have had non-essential shops, restaurants and entertainment largely shut since October

There is no getting around the fact that once restrictions are eased trouble flares quickly and we are dependent on vaccines to break the cycle of wave after wave increase in hospitalisations and dependent on the same vaccines being effective against emerging variants.

Round and round we go.

Tazz T

seansouth36 wrote: »

Actually history has shown us that every time a pandemic occurred, the restrictions put in place were eventually lifted. What restrictions put in place during the Spanish Flu stayed in place after it was over? None.

None of the doomsayers seem to get this. In fact, there have been a good few coronavirus pandemics throughout history, some possibly in ancient history.

Guess what. Not one of these or any other airborne pandemic has had a fourth wave - with or without a vaccine. And not one has lasted more than two years. Incidentally, the Spanish flu mutated into what the aul wans get vaxxed for coming up to Xmas each year.

But apparently this one is special and is going to be with us forever.

Deeper Blue

What are people basing their 2023 predictions on exactly?

All the evidence we have concerning vaccine effectiveness is positive

People seem to be firing out numbers for shock value

gozunda

dalyboy wrote: »

We will be looking at other countries at that point and all of them will be in full swing come Oct or Nov. If the Irish gov panic it’ll be very obvious that it’s due to our sh1t health system and that blame lies with them and only them.

There’s no way in hell businesses will shut down again for the winter 21/22 because of their joke shop management of the health system particularly as we have already lost 18 months (projected by the time we may reopen) of trade. It would be cataclysmic for FFG politically and would have ZERO commercial buy in.

I don't get this ****e of us looking at other countries as if we're kids trying to crib at an exam or something. Its highly unlikely we're going to do something because simply someone else has done it.

We will mainly be looking to ourselves and how we extricate ourselves from a pandemic without ending up in deep water.

Yes I reckon everyone know the healthcare system has huge problems. We have to deal with that. And yes things will open up in line with vaccinations increasing and no other curve balls being thrown at us or even a subset of eejits ignoring public health advice.

The thing is with the present political landscape - is that any government is damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's perhaps fortunate for them that there is a coalition style government here. In the future I'm sure the finger pointing and blaming each other will make the headlines.

Even Boris in the UK is walking a tightrope. He nearly got lynched early in the pandemic for making a complete haemes of it. More recently he's managed to improve his prospects with the the speed of the vaccination programme there and on the back of that he's now promising all kinds of stuff. Though even with that there are significant rumbles of discontent even with that.

ypres5

Deeper Blue wrote: »

What are people basing their 2023 predictions on exactly?

All the evidence we have concerning vaccine effectiveness is positive

People seem to be firing out numbers for shock value

I dunno, going by my numbers which I'm not going to share with anyone it'll be at least 2056 at the earliest we can leave level 5 and maybe level 3 by mid 2071

Plumbthedepths

ypres5 wrote: »

I dunno, going by my numbers which I'm not going to share with anyone it'll be at least 2056 at the earliest we can leave level 5 and maybe level 3 by mid 2071

I admire your optimism.

the kelt

ypres5 wrote: »

I dunno, going by my numbers which I'm not going to share with anyone it'll be at least 2056 at the earliest we can leave level 5 and maybe level 3 by mid 2071

Considering NPHET were proposing to possibly continue lockdown to eradicate waiting lists in our health service ye might not be far wrong

lee_baby_simms

ypres5 wrote: »

I dunno, going by my numbers which I'm not going to share with anyone it'll be at least 2056 at the earliest we can leave level 5 and maybe level 3 by mid 2071

That’s it, one final push now folks. Hold firm.

The next 40 years are critical.

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

I dunno, going by my numbers which I'm not going to share with anyone it'll be at least 2056 at the earliest we can leave level 5 and maybe level 3 by mid 2071

Ohh edgy ....

Detour.

This thing is beginning to remind me of the property tax

When the numbers drop they're going to keep a base level of restrictions

Sounds conspiracy theorist but now I'm not so sure the ways things are going.

Restrictions on movement, quarantine, vaccine passports, covid checkpoints.

It gives the government leverage to get other stuff done under the guise of covid, I haven't deduced what it all is yet but it's coming into view.

I'm not given to conspiracy theories btw

PTH2009

Thank **** its now March

January and February had to been the most slowest months ever

Detour.

Detour. wrote: »

This thing is beginning to remind me of the property tax

When the numbers drop they're going to keep a base level of restrictions

Sounds conspiracy theorist but now I'm not so sure the ways things are going.

Restrictions on movement, quarantine, vaccine passports, covid checkpoints.

It gives the government leverage to get other stuff done under the guise of covid, I haven't deduced what it all is yet but it's coming into view.

I'm not given to conspiracy theories btw

The obvious one is quarantine of course

This will be used to restrict inward travel from unwanted nations under the guise of covid

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

Ohh edgy ....

it's this thing called a joke sorry if I upset you or something I don't see what's so edgy about it anyway

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

Ohh edgy ....

it's this thing called a joke sorry if I upset you or something

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

it's this thing called a joke sorry if I upset you or something I don't see what's so edgy about it anyway

So was that - chssake no need to throw the clothes off :rolleyes:

Link

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'm not getting any money from PUP or other forms of subsidy. I'm working at my workplace, and I've been since last August. I've been home for nearly 5 months last year, and my salary was 60% of the full one, so not a fan of hard lockdowns.

My dark projections are just what I see in my mind due to what we're living now. I'm not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel.
What I also say is that we will remember these years for the rest of our lives, they will be like a permanent scar in our lives, there will always be something that makes us recall what we've been through, and the years we lost/wasted.

How can a life be the same as before with such a scar, it escapes me.

The scars are sure worse for some than others, but yeah think there is a scar but if things improve scars do heal and time puts a different perspective on things.Have to wait and see. Coming into summer though with brighter warmer days you’d expect things to improve. Here’s hoping.

Desperate news today from BOI and Aer Lingus.

Let’s pray the restrictions end before we have a million unemployed and a country in poverty.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Desperate news today from BOI and Aer Lingus.

Let’s pray the restrictions end before we have a million unemployed and a country in poverty.

What happened with them?
Ok see that now Shannon temporary lay offs till June and bank branches closing. Not good.

ypres5

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Desperate news today from BOI and Aer Lingus.

Let’s pray the restrictions end before we have a million unemployed and a country in poverty.

looking forward to all the ah sure they were going to close/were in trouble anyway posts

Tazz T

ypres5 wrote: »

looking forward to all the ah sure they were going to close/were in trouble anyway posts

Then they find out about all the hundreds of businesses and suppliers that depend on the shannon/aer lingus operation with people employed that they know

Doctor Jimbob

gozunda wrote: »

I don't get this ****e of us looking at other countries as if we're kids trying to crib at an exam or something. Its highly unlikely we're going to do something because simply someone else has done it.

We will mainly be looking to ourselves and how we extricate ourselves from a pandemic without ending up in deep water.

Yes I reckon everyone know the healthcare system has huge problems. We have to deal with that. And yes things will open up in line with vaccinations increasing and no other curve balls being thrown at us or even a subset of eejits ignoring public health advice.

The thing is with the present political landscape - is that any government is damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's perhaps fortunate for them that there is a coalition style government here. In the future I'm sure the finger pointing and blaming each other will make the headlines.

Even Boris in the UK is walking a tightrope. He nearly got lynched early in the pandemic for making a complete haemes of it. More recently he's managed to improve his prospects with the the speed of the vaccination programme there and on the back of that he's now promising all kinds of stuff. Though even with that there are significant rumbles of discontent even with that.

I don't see any such complaints aimed at people looking at other countries going back into lockdown.