When will it all end?

drunkmonkey

Have you called the specialist, I was waiting about 2mts for something during lockdown and it turned out my doctors secretary never sent on the referral..

bluelamp

franciscanpunk wrote: »

What's another year

The next two years are crucial

Most have tired of the restrictions, everyone seems to be meeting friends / family now, lots of cars on the roads, groups out in parks, friends over for drinks, and there seems to be an awful lot of fresh haircuts out there.

This doesn't seem to be confined to a particular age group either.

The government would be far better off opening up hairdressers, "non essential" retail, restaurants, gyms etc at this point.

People have taken it into their own hands now which has made it more dangerous than if they were in controlled environments where there was tracing and health measures in place.

They've lost the public at this point. I'd say very few can hand on heart say they aren't meeting anyone at all outside their home, sticking to the 5km etc.

Rather than stopping anyone from doing things - they need to cop on that people will do these things regardless. They need to focus on how these things can be done as safely as possible, rather than fighting a losing battle trying to stop people.

gozunda

bluelamp wrote: »

The next two years are crucial

Most have tired of the restrictions, everyone seems to be meeting friends / family now, lots of cars on the roads, groups out in parks, friends over for drinks, and there seems to be an awful lot of fresh haircuts out there.

This doesn't seem to be confined to a particular age group either.

The government would be far better off opening up hairdressers, "non essential" retail, restaurants, gyms etc at this point.

People have taken it into their own hands now which has made it more dangerous than if they were in controlled environments where there was tracing and health measures in place.

They've lost the public at this point. I'd say very few can hand on heart say they aren't meeting anyone at all outside their home, sticking to the 5km etc.

Rather than stopping anyone from doing things - they need to cop on that people will do these things regardless. They need to focus on how these things can be done as safely as possible, rather than fighting a losing battle trying to stop people.

Of course many people are tired. Doesn't mean they're all going to act like eejits and ignore public health advice.

I know its sometime easy to take the whole thing as a joke or just be blasé - but as our 14 say incident rate remains higher than it was last September - we cant risk simply opening up purely because some may be bored.

Don't believe the advice given here? Its not like were the only country asking its citizens to avoid certain things. Dr. Anthony Fauci head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advises avoiding indoor gatherings, gyms, bars and restaurants and unnecessary travel as these are significant nodes for increasing rates of infection.

A study detailed on the News today's found that the majority of people here remain broadly supportive of the current restrictions. So its not correct that the government have 'lost the public". There will always be those who will flaunt the rules and act the maggot regardless.

Six out of 10 people say sticking with the guidelines is tiresome, but almost 80 per cent believe preventing the spread of Covid-19 is more important than the burden of restrictions..

Prof Pete Lunn, head of the behavioural research unit at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), said this helped explain how measures of compliance have been rising in recent months, despite the frustrations that people feel.

“Just because we feel a particular way, does not mean that this feeling dictates our behaviour. Rather, the large majority of people in Ireland support the restrictions and are sticking to them, despite the frustrations.”

The data also show systematic misperceptions about socially activity, he said.

Half the adult population does not meet up with anyone outside their household over a 48-hour period, with less than one quarter meeting up with three or more. Yet the more socially active people believe that they are meeting fewer people than average, according to Prof Lunn.

“There is a clear misperception. Most people believe that others are enjoying more of a social life than they are. Those who are in fact most socially active do not realise this.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/vast-majority-sticking-to-covid-rules-despite-misperception-experts-say-1.4498017

Our best bet for this - is keep doing what we can and vaccination.

patnor1011

gozunda wrote: »

Of course many people are tired. Doesn't mean they're all going to act like eejits and ignore public health advice.

I know its sometime easy to take the whole thing as a joke or just be blasé - but as our 14 say incident rate remains higher than it was last September - we cant risk simply opening up purely because some may be bored.

Don't believe the advice given here? Its not like were the only country asking its citizens to avoid certain things. Dr. Anthony Fauci head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advises avoiding indoor gatherings, gyms, bars and restaurants and unnecessary travel as these are significant nodes for increasing rates of infection.

A study detailed on the News today's found that the majority of people here remain broadly supportive of the current restrictions. So its not correct that the government have 'lost the public". There will always be those who will flaunt the rules and act the maggot regardless.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/vast-majority-sticking-to-covid-rules-despite-misperception-experts-say-1.4498017

Our best bet for this - is keep doing what we can and vaccination.

I do not know where they do these studies or polls. I do know and meet a lot of people and 9 out of 10 are against restrictions. The only few people who are pro are few who get to work from home but even they long for opening shops, restaurants, and even dangerous virus breeding facilities like hairdressers, gyms and churches. I am surrounded by elderly neighbors and cant see them following restrictions as I see them visiting each other and having family gatherings. I am not convinced there are a lot of people in support of any restrictions and certainly not level 5.

While it is clear now that vaccination is not going to change much - hints are everywhere so called experts already proclaimed that we can not ease restrictions or lose facemasks even after we will be vaccinated people here still think "we will go back" to what it was pre covid.
We are not. We are going to be hit with massive overcrowding at hospitals due to year of "time off" where over million of appointments for various other medical conditions and procedures were cancelled since covid era started.

I have feeling and I am certainly not alone that we actually kicked ourselves in the a®se trying to prevent hospitals to be overwhelmed simply because they actually were overwhelmed before we emptied them because covid. And after a year of this waiting, we can expect several times more people trying to get in with their own problems which were for the most part neglected.
We tried to prevent overwhelming of already overwhelmed hospitals by overwhelming nursing houses which then resulted in overwhelming funeral directors.

El_Duderino 09

franciscanpunk wrote: »

...if it was a case we were waiting until the vast majority of people had a at least one dose before we reduce to a minimum then all restrictions once all vaccinated i could agree with that, but the strategy that's been communicated so far does not guarantee or barely indicate this is what we will be doing.
...

Isn’t that pretty much what we’re doing? Vaccinating the majority and then seeing how that goes? If things go great then probably no need for restrictions. If things go badly then we will probably need restrictions next winter. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Fact is we don’t know what will happen when the majority is vaccinated. There is uncertainty around a number of areas including but not limited to: how vaccine soon we can get people vaccinated (both supply and rollout), many people will refuse the vaccine and remain unvaccinated, how the virus will mutate and how the hospitalisation and deaths will change when we lift restrictions and how things will change next winter when the weather cools.

Do you think they know the answers to all these questions and they just aren’t telling you, or do you think they don’t know the answers?

Monster249

gozunda wrote: »

Of course many people are tired. Doesn't mean they're all going to act like eejits and ignore public health advice.

I know its sometime easy to take the whole thing as a joke or just be blasé - but as our 14 say incident rate remains higher than it was last September - we cant risk simply opening up purely because some may be bored.

Don't believe the advice given here? Its not like were the only country asking its citizens to avoid certain things. Dr. Anthony Fauci head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advises avoiding indoor gatherings, gyms, bars and restaurants and unnecessary travel as these are significant nodes for increasing rates of infection.

A study detailed on the News today's found that the majority of people here remain broadly supportive of the current restrictions. So its not correct that the government have 'lost the public". There will always be those who will flaunt the rules and act the maggot regardless.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/vast-majority-sticking-to-covid-rules-despite-misperception-experts-say-1.4498017

Our best bet for this - is keep doing what we can and vaccination.

The difference with Fauci telling people to avoid gyms, etc. Is that they're given the choice, gyms are open in most states.

The problem here is that they have no issue keeping everything closed, letting businesses and lived be ruined and cancelling hundreds of thousands of hospital appointments per month.

They are inadvertently causing so much death over the coming years because of their overdramatic plan on easing restrictions.

Monster249

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Isn’t that pretty much what we’re doing? Vaccinating the majority and then seeing how that goes? If things go great then probably no need for restrictions. If things go badly then we will probably need restrictions next winter. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Fact is we don’t know what will happen when the majority is vaccinated. There is uncertainty around a number of areas including but not limited to: how vaccine soon we can get people vaccinated (both supply and rollout), many people will refuse the vaccine and remain unvaccinated, how the virus will mutate and how the hospitalisation and deaths will change when we lift restrictions and how things will change next winter when the weather cools.

Do you think they know the answers to all these questions and they just aren’t telling you, or do you think they don’t know the answers?

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

Irish Stones

bluelamp wrote: »

The government would be far better off opening up hairdressers, "non essential" retail, restaurants, gyms etc at this point.

As for me, I'm learning to do without them.
Nearly everything essential can be done online, so if shops open or do not open doesn't bother me much.
I haven't seen my hair dresser for more than a year now, and at this point I think I can live without him. Same for bars and restaurants.

the kelt

Monster249 wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

But what if this happens, or that happens, or that other thing happens, thats going to be the next post really.

El_Duderino 09

Monster249 wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

Ok. Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?

mightyreds

the kelt wrote: »

But what if this happens, or that happens, or that other thing happens, thats going to be the next post really.

Lol right on cue

_Kaiser_

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?

Hospitals have been 'overrun' during winter for years. We didn't lose the plot and lock down the country for it.

People get sick, some people die. It's unfortunate and sad for their loved ones, but it's also part of life.

The REAL question is why is it that, despite ever increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

That's what you should be asking.

the kelt

franciscanpunk wrote: »

At this stage with leo leaking now no major changes until into May im starting to give up, will try stick it out a while longer but running into 5 months of intense restrictions is pushing the limit. I'm not exactly happy i've had 1 year of my life on stand by but nothing i can do about it now. running into a second year now and with the way ronan glynn is talking about restrictions until at least the end of the year not far off running into a third year is depressing.

What's another year if it was a case we were waiting until the vast majority of people had a at least one dose before we reduce to a minimum then all restrictions once all vaccinated i could agree with that, but the strategy that's been communicated so far does not guarantee or barely indicate this is what we will be doing.

It seems the done thing now is to say if variants ruin our vaccine plan we'll be back to square one and will need to develop new vaccines but surely further variants will develop while these are being developed and circle continues(i heard many virolgists talk about the virus mutating as being the ideal scenario as to survive it needs to develop into a less deadly strain and eventually risk of severe illness n death greatly reduces but this was pre last summer and haven't heard much since)

Communication must be better

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-covid-19-plan-an-opportunity-for-communication-reset-varadkar-says-1089465.html

Barely a week later and we have

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-covid-19-plan-an-opportunity-for-communication-reset-varadkar-says-1089465.html

But apparently we must do better and learn to communicate better!!!

Ive seen pigeons learn faster in all honesty.

And it isnt just Leo or a political party im focussing on, theyre all the same. I mean throw in NPHET floating a few other kites like "we might use lock down to ease waiting lists" and theres that much kite flying its like deliberate attempt to stop planes taking off.

I think this is driving frustration as much as anything imho.

People need something to aspire to and aim for, not a finger in the air well we might to this, and we might to that, or this might happen, fook me we know that everyone knows that, we accept that.

But some metric or some form of plan and stick to it, stop kite flying.

We obviously have metrics we look at when deciding what we can do in regards to restrictions from cases to vaccination numbers, to how busy the hospitals are etc.

Can we not have a plan with some targets, for example "if we can get case numbers down to x, and hospitals down to y and z amount of people vaccinated we will be in a position to ease at leas these restrictions, 5k limit, outdoor sports, click and collect etc etc whatever it may be.

That gives people a bit of hope which is whats desperately needed.

I mean at the moment we have a situation where the message is "eh just keep doing and what we are doing and we can see in April" followed less than a week later "probably be May now!"

Maybe im wrong but even last year it wasnt like this, "get case numbers down, get R numbers down along with hospitlisation and we will be able to do this" etc

Now with the help of vaccine we are in a situation where the message is "emmm not really sure, look just keep doing what ye are doing and we can see in April,ok!" Ehh "actually make that May"

IMHO its this thats causing the most frustration.

lee_baby_simms

Monster249 wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

Sadly the goalposts have been in orbit since the start of this so the public have no idea what the actual goal is.

We have been hoodwinked into the belief that living life with its inherent risk is...too risky.

SnuggyBear

bluelamp wrote: »

The government would be far better off opening up hairdressers, "non essential" retail, restaurants, gyms etc at this point.

They really should, what good is it having everything closed when people are meeting up again anyway. There is such a visible change over the last couple of weeks.

Guy on TV last night saying If 2 people are vaccinated they should still be careful meeting up as there is still a small risk. Whats he on?

Irish Stones

When will it end?

In the IT, dr. Ian Norton says it will last not less than 2 to 3 years (and we're halfway), but some countries will not vaccinate till the end 2025, hence the risk could be high for such a long time

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/covid-19-we-have-never-seen-a-pandemic-of-this-scale-that-was-shorter-than-2-3-years-1.4498436

JMNolan

I see a lot of countries starting to ease restrictions, deaths are falling, and cases are falling so I see a lot to look forward to in the next two months.

• Our death rate has halved in the last 4 weeks
• Austria is easing restrictions on hospitality
• Several US states have almost completely removed restrictions
• France has approved AZ for over-65s
• South Africa is easing restrictions
• Single shot of either Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine reduces chance of needing hospital treatment by more than 80%, analysis in England shows
• EU to propose vaccine passports in March in time for summer

I can go on with the good news. I've always said Ireland won't decide when to lift restrictions. People here are too afraid of and compliant with NPHET. What will happen is US/UK/Rest of EU will open up fully and the case/deaths here will disappear and the media will turn on NPHET. My guess is May.

El_Duderino 09

the kelt wrote: »

But what if this happens, or that happens, or that other thing happens, thats going to be the next post really.

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Irish Stones

JMNolan wrote: »

• EU to propose vaccine passports in March in time for summer

This is something I really can't understand.
Are they saying that we will have a passport to be allowed to travel and spread the virus abroad?
Are they saying (behind the lines) that the vaccine cuts the transmission of the virus?
It is one thing or the other.

El_Duderino 09

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Hospitals have been 'overrun' during winter for years. We didn't lose the plot and lock down the country for it.

People get sick, some people die. It's unfortunate and sad for their loved ones, but it's also part of life.

The REAL question is why is it that, despite ever increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

That's what you should be asking.

Sure. I’m not really expecting an answer to the question as I keep asking it and keep not getting an answer. It’s a pretty central question to the whole thing given that the virus is seasonal. It really should be among the first questions we should address given that it’s one we’re likely to face next winter.

But instead of addressing it, I keep getting deflections and those same posters would no doubt be shocked if we end up with restrictions next winter.

SnuggyBear

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Waffle

the kelt

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

LOL

A dude who said the entire population cant be trusted because they had Christmas with their families citing others as getting their news from Facebook and Twitter!!

That view is pretty much twitter/facebook rule number one when it comes to COVID 19.

But i agree, it is more nuanced and no people dont just want simple answers. This might come as a shock but people can accept, digest and listen to information in this country, but they see through waffle straight away

They just want an answer, a plan, something to aspire to that doesnt change within 7 days when nothing within that 7 days should have led it to change.

Well it might be this, and it might be that, or it might be the other thing isnt an answer with nuance or balance, its plain and simply waffle!!

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example. Even if those numbers look like they may be hard to get so be it at least people know what we should be looking out for. If something happens in the meantime like a new variant etc then so be it, people will accept that. Its better than what we currently have which is finger in the air waffle

Thats what people want, not waffle.

Scotty #

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Guy on TV last night saying If 2 people are vaccinated they should still be careful meeting up as there is still a small risk. Whats he on?

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

Deeper Blue

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Vaccines are the way out

SnuggyBear

Scotty # wrote: »

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

lol I'd say you are loving it sitting at home hiding away from the world.

Scotty #

the kelt wrote: »

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example.

But it's far more complicated than that. All the various parameters effect each other. You can't simply say we can go ahead at X or Y. There's far too many parameters involved.

The UK have released dates but as they're completely meaningless. They say themselves in the roadmap, it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

Doctor Jimbob

Scotty # wrote: »

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

Once we get enough people vaccinated there will be far too much pressure on government to lift restrictions.

I'd be absolutely amazed if we have significant restrictions by autumn and even more surprised if we have any at all by this time next year.

El_Duderino 09

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Waffle

You’ve provided a great example of what has happened in the last year. Some people engage in the full discussion on the topic, others want a simple answer - your answer was so simple it was only a single word.

But to is topic isn’t simple and it can’t be summed up in a simple answer.

Scotty #

SnuggyBear wrote: »

lol I'd say you are loving it sitting at home hiding away from the world.

Actually I haven't had a day off since last April.

But I do find it sad that your side of the debate have to resort to sarcastic wit EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. It's like, I've nothing intelligent to say so I'll just come out with some garbage.

...and you accuse others of 'waffle'!

El_Duderino 09

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Vaccines are the way out

Of course they are the way out. But there’s more to it than that.

The people who engaged with the topic know that there’s more to it than simply developing a vaccine. There are also the questions I raised in the post you quoted.