When will it all end?

Irish Stones

Scotty # wrote: »

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

So if two fully vaccinated people can't meet without precautions, what could change when all the world is vaccinated? Nothing, it seems.

Scotty #

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Once we get enough people vaccinated there will be far too much pressure on government to lift restrictions.

I'd be absolutely amazed if we have significant restrictions by autumn and even more surprised if we have any at all by this time next year.

Me too. But they have to get it right. If they get it wrong then we're back into lockdown in a month and all this has been for nothing.

They ****ed up at Christmas by not locking down when NPHET were telling them too. NPHET even went public with their advice so as they would not take the blame when the inevitable happened. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.

Scotty #

Irish Stones wrote: »

So if two fully vaccinated people can't meet without precautions, what could change when all the world is vaccinated? Nothing, it seems.

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

RGS

Scotty # wrote: »

But it's far more complicated than that. All the , it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

Its not that difficult. Any plan should set out targets to be met to move from stage to stage. Why is that so difficult for some posters to accept.


The plan should have stated: If hospitalisations are at X, ICU at Y, Cases at Z and vaccinations at A, then the following restrictions cane be eased:


Click and collect, 5km moved to inter county limit, outdoor non contact sports resumes,


Stage 2 if hospitalisations are at X-25%, ICU at Y-25%, cases at Z-25% and vaccinations at A+ 25% the following restrictions will be eased and so on.
It the targets are not met then we don't loosen restrictions.


But it appears NHPET were against setting targets as per Leo last week.

SnuggyBear

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

So you think 2 people can meet but you reply to me banging on about restrictions and vaccines aren't 100% safe?

hatrickpatrick

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

What would say is the criteria for either of the aforementioned, though? That's what's sorely missing from all of this. If vaccines can't get us back to mass gatherings, the question of what can is something which needs to at least be addressed. "We don't know, maybe never" is not an acceptable answer for the vast majority of people.

El_Duderino 09

the kelt wrote: »

LOL

A dude who said the entire population cant be trusted because they had Christmas with their families citing others as getting their news from Facebook and Twitter!!

That view is pretty much twitter/facebook rule number one when it comes to COVID 19.

But i agree, it is more nuanced and no people dont just want simple answers. This might come as a shock but people can accept, digest and listen to information in this country, but they see through waffle straight away

They just want an answer, a plan, something to aspire to that doesnt change within 7 days when nothing within that 7 days should have led it to change.

Well it might be this, and it might be that, or it might be the other thing isnt an answer with nuance or balance, its plain and simply waffle!!

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example. Even if those numbers look like they may be hard to get so be it at least people know what we should be looking out for. If something happens in the meantime like a new variant etc then so be it, people will accept that. Its better than what we currently have which is finger in the air waffle

Thats what people want, not waffle.

Well, you say people can comprehend complicated information accurately, the then your first paragraph is an inaccurate, mischaracterisation of something I said. So you’re not making a strong case for most people’s ability to ingest and comprehend information.

But I’ve seen it happen so often in this thread alone. There’s one poster who keeps going back to a point Leo made where he said that IF things go well we MIGHT see full stadiums and PERHAPS even festivals this year. And even with three caveats in the sentence, they took it as a guarantee of full stadiums and festivals.
People are definitely looking for a simple answer to a complicated question. And the reality is we don’t have the answers yet and that seems to cause a lot of people to get cross. I think you were calling for some kind of target a few posts ago. Any old target involving r number, hospitalisation numbers would have done you just as long as it was simple.

Reality is, the situation isn’t simple and getting news form Facebook or tabloids or chatting with friends, won’t have prepared you for the big questions. Hence the trouble accepting that there aren’t simple answers available.

the kelt

Scotty # wrote: »

But it's far more complicated than that. All the various parameters effect each other. You can't simply say we can go ahead at X or Y. There's far too many parameters involved.

The UK have released dates but as they're completely meaningless. They say themselves in the roadmap, it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

They were doing it a year ago without the help of a vaccine but cant do it now?

New variants etc are going to throw spanners in to the works but its still the same outcomes, they will be measuring the same criteria how busy hospitals are, case numbers, r numbers, they will still use the same numbers etc.

And ye see this is where the issue lies, its the kite flying. When they dont inform people and give them information people decide for themselves and then whackos, nut jobs and anti vaccers fill that vacum and void.

We dont give information so people dont know what to look for to get out of this and then we have a kite flying of maybe we might use lockdown to reduce our waiting lists also so people begin to think, here hold on a minute.

Stop treating people like thickos (we are a country that can handle and digest the information with intelligent people who just want some more information, something to look to)

But if we cant or refuse to do that then stop waffling.

A week ago we had a hames of a press conference where we learnt nothing and were told "ah sure keep going and we will see in April" which was bade enough but at least people said ok fair enough, thats all we can do. The frustration had subsided in general followed a week later by "ah probably be May now"

People deserve better than that imho

El_Duderino 09

TomSweeney wrote: »

Did you have the nipple clamps on and **** with the sandpaper as you typed that ?

I’m just pointing to this as an example of someone who read some information they didn’t like and instead of engaging with it, dismissed it with humour. That’s a good defence mechanism to avoid information that we don’t likely to hear, but it’s also one of the causes of the situation we’re in now where some people ignore the complicating information and then think there should be easy answers to complicated questions.

SnuggyBear

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You’ve provided a great example of what has happened in the last year. Some people engage in the full discussion on the topic, others want a simple answer - your answer was so simple it was only a single word.

But to is topic isn’t simple and it can’t be summed up in a simple answer.

You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle. I know you think your posting some amazing analysis everytime but it's all waffle.

Scotty #

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

What would say is the criteria for either of the aforementioned, though?

I've no idea. But I know it's not as simple as 'here, we've a few spare ICU beds, let's open the pubs'

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

If vaccines can't get us back to mass gatherings, the question of what can.

I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.

El_Duderino 09

SnuggyBear wrote: »

You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle.

If you had read the posts you’d know I was talking about how some people dismiss the information they don’t want to read and now they’re surprised that the situation is more complicated than they thought.

And you responded by saying you’re going to ignore my posts. You couldn’t’ be a better example of what I’m talking about if you tried.

gozunda

patnor1011 wrote: »

I do not know where they do these studies or polls. I do know and meet a lot of people and 9 out of 10 are against restrictions. The only few people who are pro are few who get to work from home but even they long for opening shops, restaurants, and even dangerous virus breeding facilities like hairdressers, gyms and churches. I am surrounded by elderly neighbors and cant see them following restrictions as I see them visiting each other and having family gatherings. I am not convinced there are a lot of people in support of any restrictions and certainly not level 5.

While it is clear now that vaccination is not going to change much - hints are everywhere so called experts already proclaimed that we can not ease restrictions or lose facemasks even after we will be vaccinated people here still think "we will go back" to what it was pre covid.
We are not. We are going to be hit with massive overcrowding at hospitals due to year of "time off" where over million of appointments for various other medical conditions and procedures were cancelled since covid era started.

I have feeling and I am certainly not alone that we actually kicked ourselves in the a®se trying to prevent hospitals to be overwhelmed simply because they actually were overwhelmed before we emptied them because covid. And after a year of this waiting, we can expect several times more people trying to get in with their own problems which were for the most part neglected.
We tried to prevent overwhelming of already overwhelmed hospitals by overwhelming nursing houses which then resulted in overwhelming funeral directors.

Was that 9 out of 10 cats by any chance?

I reckon that's fairly clear you know little about ERSI studies and polls. And no 'feelings' don't generally count.

You will excuse me if I chose to disregard vague personal anecdotes and generalised anti vaccination sentiment over an ERSI study or expert advice on infection risk thanks all the same.

If you had taken any time to read what was quoted- you may have noted that it was stated

Six out of 10 people say sticking with the guidelines is tiresome, but almost 80 per cent believe preventing the spread of Covid-19 is more important than the burden of restrictions

Prof Pete Lunn, head of the behavioural research unit at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), said this helped explain how measures of compliance have been rising in recent months, despite the frustrations that people feel.

“Just because we feel a particular way, does not mean that this feeling dictates our behaviour. Rather, the large majority of people in Ireland support the restrictions and are sticking to them, despite the frustrations.”

The data also show systematic misperceptions about socially activity, he said.

Half the adult population does not meet up with anyone outside their household over a 48-hour period, with less than one quarter meeting up with three or more. Yet the more socially active people believe that they are meeting fewer people than average, according to Prof Lunn.

“There is a clear misperception. Most people believe that others are enjoying more of a social life than they are. Those who are in fact most socially active do not realise this.

Thanks

hatrickpatrick

Scotty # wrote: »

I've no idea. But I know it's not as simple as 'here, we've a few spare ICU beds, let's open the pubs'

I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.

This is where it doesn't make sense to me, though. Why isn't it as simple as "we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated, we can open the pubs"?

The suggestion that masks etc will be here long after mass vaccination implies that the vaccine is useless - if it won't confer herd immunity once the majority of the population has taken it, then what's the point of the rollout?

Scotty #

SnuggyBear wrote: »

So you think 2 people can meet but you reply to me banging on about restrictions and vaccines aren't 100% safe?

2 people can meet under the current lv 5 restrictions. With or without vaccines. I'm not sure what point you are making?

Scotty #

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This is where it doesn't make sense to me, though. Why isn't it as simple as "we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated, we can open the pubs"?

The suggestion that masks etc will be here long after mass vaccination implies that the vaccine is useless - if it won't confer herd immunity once the majority of the population has taken it, then what's the point of the rollout?

Vaccines don't offer 100% protection. It'd be great if they did but they don't!

There are still going to be people getting sick with covid after everyone is vaccinated. Hence we will (according to the experts) need to keep some restrictions to prevent numbers getting too high.

If we get it right, there will be no need for further lockdowns. If we get it wrong, there will.

SnuggyBear

Scotty # wrote: »

2 people can meet under the current lv 5 restrictions. With or without vaccines. I'm not sure what point you are making?

Why did you bother replying to my post in the first place? Did you even read what I said in my post before you started creaming yourself over restrictions?

ek motor

SnuggyBear wrote: »

You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle. I know you think your posting some amazing analysis everytime but it's all waffle.

The irony.

Scotty #

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Why did you bother replying to my post in the first place? Did you even read what I said in my post before you started creaming yourself over restrictions?

Bye bye

Irish Stones

Scotty # wrote: »

Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.

This!
And the "while" is a "long while" in my opinion. And distancing as well.

Irish Stones

Scotty # wrote: »

Vaccines don't offer 100% protection. It'd be great if they did but they don't!

There are still going to be people getting sick with covid after everyone is vaccinated. Hence we will (according to the experts) need to keep some restrictions to prevent numbers getting too high.

If we get it right, there will be no need for further lockdowns. If we get it wrong, there will.

I get your points, but if, like you say, there will always be someone getting sick with covid even when everyone is vaccinated, then I reckon the restrictions, or most of them will stay forever. So it'll never end?

Where did I get lost?

Scotty #

Irish Stones wrote: »

I get your points, but if, like you say, there will always be someone getting sick with covid even when everyone is vaccinated, then I reckon the restrictions, or most of them will stay forever. So it'll never end?

Where did I get lost?

I'm not saying there will always be....

Vaccines will improve, treatment will improve. We've 21 vaccines in final testing stages at the moment. Some of these may offer much higher efficacy than the current set.

If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.

Detour.

Irish Stones wrote: »

This!
And the "while" is a "long while" in my opinion. And distancing as well.

Hopefully as an advisory

It's going to be complicated getting activities back to normal with the masks on and SD

ixoy

Scotty # wrote: »

If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.

Why do you say that the current vaccines don't give manageable hospitalisations? Especially given nowhere is yet fully vaccinated, in terms of herd immunity, but the likes of Israel are showing huge drops in hospitalisations vs cases.

bucketybuck

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

So everybody being vaccinated still won't be enough to allow indoor events.

Why can't people see that such a scenario means that vaccines didn't work?

And if vaccines don't work, then why are we basing our future planning around them?

It all comes back to the thing that a lot of people in these threads absolutely refuse to countenance, the tricky subject of actually "living with covid".

Because eventually it needs to happen, eventually society will need to make its peace with the damn thing, and all the people living in fear are doing little but prolong the inevitable.

Detour.

bucketybuck wrote: »

So everybody being vaccinated still won't be enough to allow indoor events.

Why can't people see that such a scenario means that vaccines didn't work?

And if vaccines don't work, then why are we basing our future planning around them?

It all comes back to the thing that a lot of people in these threads absolutely refuse to countenance, the tricky subject of actually "living with covid".

Because eventually it needs to happen, eventually society will need to make its peace with the damn thing, and all the people living in fear are doing little but prolong the inevitable.

Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior

Life couldn’t really continue with social distancing remaining.

You’d have to wave goodbye to professional sports, music, nightlife and other entertainment.

It’s also difficult to create life without getting close

Seriously, cop on lads! We’re not going to stop living permanently.

Covid death rate is tiny. Will be even smaller with vaccines. Eventually we’ll have an adult conversation and accept deaths/risk

Sure we don’t have the finances to borrow billions every year.

El_Duderino 09

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not saying there will always be....

Vaccines will improve, treatment will improve. We've 21 vaccines in final testing stages at the moment. Some of these may offer much higher efficacy than the current set.

If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.

Plus we're anticipating lots of people will refuse vaccines but that number might reduce as some people oppose the vaccine in principle but then actually get the vaccine anyway. The number of people refusing the vaccine is an unknown at the moment, but hopefully it goes in the right direction.

If we end up with restrictions again next winter then there will be a big push to get everyone to get the vaccine. That should bring up the numbers somewhat.

Irish Stones

Detour. wrote: »

Hopefully as an advisory

It's going to be complicated getting activities back to normal with the masks on and SD

That's why I keep saying that the "old normal" won't be back, we'll have a new normal, where people learn to do things while distancing, and masks will be part of our daily life at least in many contexts.

mightyreds

Detour. wrote: »

Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior

This is it, if the north opens and we have a staycation summer, people would be mad to stay down here.
All that money that people have saved over the lockdown (those fortunate), that the government are eying to kick start the economy being spend up north will be a shock.