When will it all end?

Le Bruise

Irish Stones wrote: »

When will it end?

In the IT, dr. Ian Norton says it will last not less than 2 to 3 years (and we're halfway), but some countries will not vaccinate till the end 2025, hence the risk could be high for such a long time

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/covid-19-we-have-never-seen-a-pandemic-of-this-scale-that-was-shorter-than-2-3-years-1.4498436

Ian's views are on the pandemic at a global level. I don't think anyone thought the pandemic would end globally any time soon, as there will be certain third world countries right at the back of the queue for vaccines. Domestically I think we can get back to a good semblance of normality quite quickly....but the situation will be different worldwide, hence the talk of 'vaccine passports' and some other restrictions on travel for a while.

Trouble is the longer it takes to vaccinate all countries, the more chance of a trickier variant appearing where outbreaks continue to occur.

hatrickpatrick

Irish Stones wrote: »

That's why I keep saying that the "old normal" won't be back, we'll have a new normal, where people learn to do things while distancing, and masks will be part of our daily life at least in many contexts.

How do you suggest that people procreate while distancing? Extraordinarily well-aimed cumshots? :pac:

bucketybuck

Detour. wrote: »

Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior

I genuinely hope that there comes a time where society looks back and recognises that we should never have allowed ourselves to have been dictated to by a cohort of people living in a state of constant fear. A state of fear whipped up by a media hysteria.

Because lessons need to be learned from this.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

Life couldn’t really continue with social distancing remaining.

You’d have to wave goodbye to professional sports, music, nightlife and other entertainment.

It’s also difficult to create life without getting close

Seriously, cop on lads! We’re not going to stop living permanently.

Covid death rate is tiny. Will be even smaller with vaccines. Eventually we’ll have an adult conversation and accept deaths/risk

Sure we don’t have the finances to borrow billions every year.

This is not going to last much longer, vaccines will be rolled out this year, once they are at critical mass (ie anyone who wants/needs vaccine is vaccinated) then normal life returns.

Irish Stones

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Plus we're anticipating lots of people will refuse vaccines but that number might reduce as some people oppose the vaccine in principle but then actually get the vaccine anyway. The number of people refusing the vaccine is an unknown at the moment, but hopefully it goes in the right direction.

If we end up with restrictions again next winter then there will be a big push to get everyone to get the vaccine. That should bring up the numbers somewhat.

I've just read this morning (can't remember where) that 8% of Irish women and 2% of Irish men wouldn't take the vaccine.
These numbers are much higher in the rest of EU, topping about 30% in France and about 25% in Italy.

ELM327

bucketybuck wrote: »

I genuinely hope that there comes a time where society looks back and recognises that we should never have allowed ourselves to have been dictated to by a cohort of people living in a state of constant fear. A state of fear whipped up by a media hysteria.

Because lessons need to be learned from this.

For the world in general I agree.
But in Ireland, we needed this. We do not have enough ICU beds.


And THAT shoudl be the learning from this. Redirect spending in health from middle management to increased service.

Irish Stones

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

How do you suggest that people procreate while distancing? Extraordinarily well-aimed cumshots? :pac:

:pac::pac::pac:
Well, current studies reveal that new meetings among young are decreasing. Those who had already matched, they are bubbling, I guess, so they will procreate :P

ELM327

Irish Stones wrote: »

I've just read this morning (can't remember where) that 8% of Irish women and 2% of Irish men wouldn't take the vaccine.
These numbers are much higher in the rest of EU, topping about 30% in France and about 25% in Italy.

This speaks volumes for the quality of our education system vs that in the EU. Our school system gets lambasted but compared to EU, here is a clear demonstrable example of it being better and not creating the ridiculous anti vaxxers.

bucketybuck

ELM327 wrote: »

For the world in general I agree.
But in Ireland, we needed this. We do not have enough ICU beds.


And THAT shoudl be the learning from this. Redirect spending in health from middle management to increased service.

Its a nice thought, except that we didn't need covid to tell us that at all, I have been hearing about a trolley crisis every winter I have been on this earth.

Does this sound familiar?

Flu death toll rises as Ireland faces five more weeks in the danger zone

Thats a Daily Mirror headline from Dec 31st 2019.

El_Duderino 09

Le Bruise wrote: »

Ian's views are on the pandemic at a global level. I don't think anyone thought the pandemic would end globally any time soon, as there will be certain third world countries right at the back of the queue for vaccines. Domestically I think we can get back to a good semblance of normality quite quickly....but the situation will be different worldwide, hence the talk of 'vaccine passports' and some other restrictions on travel for a while.

Trouble is the longer it takes to vaccinate all countries, the more chance of a trickier variant appearing where outbreaks continue to occur.

I think lots of people haven't even considered how the global view will impact on Ireland domestically. Lots of people think we can just vaccinate and get back to normal. Lots of people think Ireland is doing badly with the vaccination while we're actually in the top 25 few countries in the world by rollout rate. Thinking about complications outside of Ireland such as new variants emerging in countries without a comprehensive vaccination programme, over the next few years, is uncomfortable and lots of people don't want to think about it, so the ignore the implications.

ELM327

Irish Stones wrote: »

That's why I keep saying that the "old normal" won't be back, we'll have a new normal, where people learn to do things while distancing, and masks will be part of our daily life at least in many contexts.

This is not realistic.

bucketybuck wrote: »

Its a nice thought, except that we didn't need covid to tell us that at all, I have been hearing about a trolley crisis every winter I have been on this earth.

Does this sound familiar?


Thats a Daily Mirror headline from Dec 31st 2019.

Oh I know, dont worry. But it['s about hammering home the message.
"The reason you have been locked down is because of our bad health system"

mightyreds

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think lots of people haven't even considered how the global view will impact on Ireland domestically. Lots of people think we can just vaccinate and get back to normal. Lots of people think Ireland is doing badly with the vaccination while we're actually in the top 25 few countries in the world by rollout rate. Thinking about complications outside of Ireland such as new variants emerging in countries without a comprehensive vaccination programme, over the next few years, is uncomfortable and lots of people don't want to think about it, so the ignore the implications.

It's a pity we don't have a virus already that needs vaccination and has new variants yearly. If we did we could be better prepared for that scenario.

El_Duderino 09

Irish Stones wrote: »

I've just read this morning (can't remember where) that 8% of Irish women and 2% of Irish men wouldn't take the vaccine.
These numbers are much higher in the rest of EU, topping about 30% in France and about 25% in Italy.

That's interesting.

Those numbers are before people have been offered the vaccine. When those people have actually been offered the vaccine they might be very different. And those numbers will probably change over time too.

If the France figure of 30% is accurate, then it would probably be very hard to ever achieve herd immunity over there. What does that mean? I don't know.

The Big Easy

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

How do you suggest that people procreate while distancing? Extraordinarily well-aimed cumshots? :pac:

You might have stumbled upon the true endgame! Population control through social distancing! :pac:

landofthetree

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That's interesting.

Those numbers are before people have been offered the vaccine. When those people have actually been offered the vaccine they might be very different. And those numbers will probably change over time too.

If the France figure of 30% is accurate, then it would probably be very hard to ever achieve herd immunity over there. What does that mean? I don't know.

Europe is full of far right facists. Not surprised its that high.

Far right and anti-vax go hand in hand.

hatrickpatrick

Irish Stones wrote: »

:pac::pac::pac:
Well, current studies reveal that new meetings among young are decreasing. Those who had already matched, they are bubbling, I guess, so they will procreate :P

While my comment was tongue in cheek (or cum in... You get the idea ) it does raise an issue I've been talking about since all this started - social distancing being a "new normal" long term condemns the entire generation leaving school to not experiencing relationships. Now, the more anti-social types here will say "suck it up, tough sh!t" etc, but the fact is that human beings simply will not do this, the instinct to get together is too strong.

This kind of thing is why I keep saying "indefinite social distancing is an unacceptable answer". If we find that the vaccine doesn't work the way we want it to, eventually we're going to be forced to look at isolating those most at risk and allowing other groups to drop the rules to an extent, or else making some kind of exception to the 2m thing. Because I absolutely guarantee you that with the kind of horrific potential "new normal" stuff being thrown around in this thread, people who are 17 or 18 will eventually say "F*ck this, I need a shift" and start ignoring those rules en masse.

That's why I've been saying that this whole "new normal" stuff is simply unsustainable in the long term. It's not just about physical intimacy, but even the social outlets at which those kinds of encounter tend to be initiated. Keep those off the table for time scales measuring in years, and social order will break down sooner rather than later as people, particularly the youngest cohorts, will begin to slowly drop all pretence of following those rules in favour of being able to socialise in the kind of way that might end in any kind of hookup.

That's human nature, and it's something I feel all the "we're just going to have to maintain social distancing and keep entertainment shut down well into 2022 at least" aren't grasping. Do that, and everything from illegal house parties to people going on Tinder dates and breaking the social distancing rules in possible the most fundamental way imaginable will become a widespread reality.

I have yet to see any suggestions as to how this can be handled, which is pretty much why I keep asking the same questions. "Just don't do it" isn't a good enough answer because humans don't work like that, touch starvation and sexual frustration will eventually become a more pressing matter for individuals than following the rules. When that happens, what exactly do we do? Make those people feel like criminals for kissing at the end of a date?

This is specifically in the context of "social distancing even long after mass vaccination", by the way. I would argue that one year of asking teens and young twenty somethings to totally abstain from physical intimacy was a massive stretch and that a lot more people broke those rules last summer than would be happy to admit to it. Closing in on two years? Forget it. People won't do it.

Isn't it a better idea to have a framework around that rather than maintaining the "just don't do it" facade when surely everyone at least privately acknowledges that large numbers of people will eventually refuse to do so when the alternative is having remained touch starved and celibate for eighteen months?

ELM327

Surely Sinn Fein should be included here, as a nationalist party? (Although as they are far left instead of far right, perhaps this is why)

gary550

landofthetree wrote: »

Europe is full of far right facists. Not surprised its that high.

Far right and anti-vax go hand in hand.

Christ on a bike

I have little to no interest in getting a vaccine, should I grow out an upper lip mustache to let everyone know I don't trust pharmaceutical conglomerates?

Grow up and stop trying to correlate vaccine scepticism with far right fascism

Detour.

bucketybuck wrote: »

I genuinely hope that there comes a time where society looks back and recognises that we should never have allowed ourselves to have been dictated to by a cohort of people living in a state of constant fear. A state of fear whipped up by a media hysteria.

Because lessons need to be learned from this.

Was thinking the same

There's a salutory lesson here regarding the power and influence of government, media and medics

bluelamp

Deleted User wrote: »

Seriously, cop on lads! We’re not going to stop living permanently.

Covid death rate is tiny. Will be even smaller with vaccines. Eventually we’ll have an adult conversation and accept deaths/risk

The people who are saying vaccines aren't going to be enough, saying we aren't going back to mass gatherings and packed pubs etc, didn't do these things anyway before.

Im gonna be attacked for saying this, but let's be clear - these people lived sheltered existences to begin with.

Think about it, anyone who previously enjoyed going out drinking, going to concerts, going to football matches - is never going to say something like that.

They are free to live a sheltered existence after this if they want. I will choose not to.

ELM327

gary550 wrote: »

Christ on a bike

I have little to no interest in getting a vaccine, should I grow out an upper lip mustache to let everyone know I don't trust pharmaceutical conglomerates?

Grow up and stop trying to correlate vaccine scepticism with far right fascism

Not saying it's specifically the case in your instance, but there is a direct correlation already established between far right (and far left) positions, anti vaccine movements, and poor education.

lee_baby_simms

ELM327 wrote: »

Not saying it's specifically the case in your instance, but there is a direct correlation already established between far right (and far left) positions, anti vaccine movements, and poor education.

So if that’s true then is the far left associated with full autocratic control of society where people’s rights are stripped away, people coming into the country are electronically tagged and put into internment hotels?

Is this thinking associated with compassionate, educated people?

Charles Babbage

gary550 wrote: »

I have little to no interest in getting a vaccine

bluelamp wrote: »

The people who are saying vaccines aren't going to be enough, saying we aren't going back to mass gatherings and packed pubs etc, didn't do these things anyway before.

The issue is not that vaccines will not be enough, but that selfish people will not take the vaccine and will keep us in this situation, while all the time complaining about the situation they are bringing about.



Life will return 2019 conditions more or less, but this will not happen in May. If everyone gets the vaccines, and this requires testing of vaccines on children, then the disease will be uncommon. If it does break out somewhere then some local restrictions may still be needed, but the general run of life will be "normal".

The Big Easy

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

So if that’s true then is the far left associated with full autocratic control of society where people’s rights are stripped away, people coming into the country are electronically tagged and put into internment hotels?

Is this thinking associated with compassionate, educated people?

Sadly the far left is associated with communism and the totalitarian state, so yes.

The far left and the far right and two flavours of the same thing - extremism. Taken to its natural conclusion; all dissent is wrong and and curtailment of liberty is necessary.

This thinking, I hope, is not associated with compassionate, educated people, but as I'm sure you know education and compassion are not the same thing.

ELM327

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

So if that’s true then is the far left associated with full autocratic control of society where people’s rights are stripped away, people coming into the country are electronically tagged and put into internment hotels?

Is this thinking associated with compassionate, educated people?

The far left and the far right are both groups of extremist morons

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Not saying it's specifically the case in your instance, but there is a direct correlation already established between far right (and far left) positions, anti vaccine movements, and poor education.

I don't think that "anti-vaccination" movements, as they have been recognised until now, are the same thing as scepticism about mRNA vaccines. The majority of the people I know who are intending not to get an mRNA vaccine are educated, some of them with PhDs in STEM subjects, and their hesitance is down to the absent long-term safety profile of this new technology. They almost universally hail mRNA technology as a boon to humankind if it is proven safe in the long term; they just don't want to volunteer to be part of the experiment.

It is worth noting that nearly half of early joiners to the Nazi party in Germany were physicians, at a time when more than half of Berlin physicians were Jewish. "Educated" does not always mean ethical, and it certainly doesn't always mean correct.

franciscanpunk

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Isn’t that pretty much what we’re doing? Vaccinating the majority and then seeing how that goes? If things go great then probably no need for restrictions. If things go badly then we will probably need restrictions next winter. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Fact is we don’t know what will happen when the majority is vaccinated. There is uncertainty around a number of areas including but not limited to: how vaccine soon we can get people vaccinated (both supply and rollout), many people will refuse the vaccine and remain unvaccinated, how the virus will mutate and how the hospitalisation and deaths will change when we lift restrictions and how things will change next winter when the weather cools.

Do you think they know the answers to all these questions and they just aren’t telling you, or do you think they don’t know the answers?

I genuinely have no idea if that's pretty much what we arw doing.

In some circles we have people talkibg about using lockdowns to ease waiting lists, don't know how that can be tied back to usibg lockdowns now for the last couple of months while the vulnerable are vaccinated.

I don't really see how 'we' are doing anything, i defintely no longer feel part of some of some inclusive goal as a society to get theough this, all i seem to be able to see if regular contradictory messages that not not only change week to week but completely go against any strategy communicated last year. I bought into closing down of society based on what i perceived to be a strategy of wait for vaccines for the vulnerable, our health system is awful we'll up the creek otherwise.That message seems to be we might try open a few things when almost everyone is vaccinated but we may not. if we deem your job or business not important enough for society it may never reappear, get on with it

The fact that we have to decipher what ministers and nphet decision makers actually mean and try read between the lines is so not good enough

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think that "anti-vaccination" movements, as they have been recognised until now, are the same thing as scepticism about mRNA vaccines. The majority of the people I know who are intending not to get an mRNA vaccine are educated, some of them with PhDs in STEM subjects, and their hesitance is down to the absent long-term safety profile of this new technology. They almost universally hail mRNA technology as a boon to humankind if it is proven safe in the long term; they just don't want to volunteer to be part of the experiment.

It is worth noting that nearly half of early joiners to the Nazi party in Germany were physicians, at a time when more than half of Berlin physicians were Jewish. "Educated" does not always mean ethical, and it certainly doesn't always mean correct.

If someone has a PHD in a stem subject and they are antivax it would be suggested that the credibility of their phd be called into question. When I mentioned education, I didnt mean PHD student, I mean the general education system in the country, ranging from primary to tertiary. Look at the US and a heatmap of anti vax population centers. They are correlated in deprived areas such as the deep south and the midwest.



Intelligent thought and critical thinking is the way we want people to be. Skepticism of vaccines by default is not. It's similar to how militant theists and militant atheists are both incorrect by default. You have to be open to critical thought and logic, not blindly maintaining your position regardless of the current or future evidence.

El_Duderino 09

bluelamp wrote: »

The people who are saying vaccines aren't going to be enough, saying we aren't going back to mass gatherings and packed pubs etc, didn't do these things anyway before.

Im gonna be attacked for saying this, but let's be clear - these people lived sheltered existences to begin with.

Think about it, anyone who previously enjoyed going out drinking, going to concerts, going to football matches - is never going to say something like that.

They are free to live a sheltered existence after this if they want. I will choose not to.

What does the bit in bold have to do with the reality of how things will work out? I believe you're right that some people decide what they want to believe and work form that basis. But that won't have any impact on whether there is a need for temporary or localised restrictions and whether mass gatherings, like concerts, are allowed or not.

I presume these things will return but I don't think they will happen this year. I think the main objective of the vaccination programme will be to get through next winter without any restrictions. The better things go as winter progresses, the more normal we can expect life to be after that. If we get through the winter without restrictions and without huge deaths, then we're probably on for a full return to 2019 normality. If things go badly wrong in winter then I don't really know what that means but it would surely mean there will be a need for a new definition of normality.

Deeper Blue

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised. Many of these would've been in the older age groups. That's 0.0067% of cases ending up in hospital. For context, 0.0067% of our entire population is 328.

Furthermore, all vaccines have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations despite the different variants.

So tell me again why this will go on beyond this year? And don't give me some hypothetical killer mutation BS