When will it all end?

Micky 32

tara2k wrote: »

This country will be back in lockdown in December of this year, and Jan 2022, even if everyone in the country has been vaccinated.

If the vaccination program is completed no we won’t be full stop. The Shyte some people post in these forums is actually hilarious :pac: They say wishful thinking makes people feel good, keep it up

Mr. Karate

Micky 32 wrote: »

If the vaccination program is completed no we won’t be full stop. The Shyte some people post in these forums is actually hilarious :pac: They say wishful thinking makes people feel good, keep it up

Given the way this Govt has been acting throughout all of this you can't blame people for thinking this way. Especially since no one is willing to tell One Trick Pony Holohan to take his indefinite lockdowns and shove them.

Micky 32

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Given the way this Govt has been acting throughout all of this you can't blame people for thinking this way. Especially since no one is willing to tell One Trick Pony Holohan to take his indefinite lockdowns and shove them.

When the situation improves via vaccination things will change, i’ll bet my left ball on it.

Mr. Karate

CollectThat wrote: »

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines? We can't afford to keep all these supports to businesses, we will have to pay the bill eventually. Talk of Social Distancing for years, that would never work in bars / restaurants. It wouldn't be financially feasible for them to open if only (lets say) 50% of their usual capacity can be used. They can afford it now since 80% of staff wages are paid for by supports. Once this is removed we'll have to allow a return to normal practices.

These idiots in Govt think that they can borrow [and make us foot the bill] indefinitely. Eventually the Central Banks will stop giving us money and start demanding repayment.

I guess we should take the news that the Govt put in a bid to partially host the 2030 World Cup as a sign that they intend to re open at some point. They'll need the hospitality sector up and running [and rebuilt] by then.

lee_baby_simms

Micky 32 wrote: »

If the vaccination program is completed no we won’t be full stop.

I hope you’re right but both UK and Irish governments have already publicly discussed more lockdowns next winter.

Mr. Karate

Micky 32 wrote: »

When the situation improves via vaccination things will change, i’ll bet my left ball on it.

I hope you're not to attached to that ball. The way these idiots look for excuses to keep the lockdowns going [numbers are already dropping and they still extended it to May] you may lose that testicle very quickly.

Micky 32

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I hope you’re right but both UK and Irish governments have already publicly discussed more lockdowns next winter.

No they haven’t said there will be lockdowns. Possible restrictions if needed, but with more and more evidence emerging on how effective the vaccines are they will be very little if any.

Our Taoiseach has said himself once we reopen we must stay open this time.

Micky 32

Mr. Karate wrote: »

I hope you're not to attached to that ball. The way these idiots look for excuses to keep the lockdowns going [numbers are already dropping and they still extended it to May] you may lose that testicle very quickly.

More waffle…..looking for excuses to keep a country in lockdown? Lol

This is the begining of the end of this pandemic.

lee_baby_simms

Micky 32 wrote: »

No they haven’t said there will be lockdowns. Possible restrictions if needed, but with the evidence emerging on how effective the vaccines are they will be very little if any.

He used the word lockdown. He said they weren’t ruling it out later this year.

They’ll never close that door.

Again I hope you’re right but I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if it happens.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/leo-varadkar-cant-rule-out-23475803

Mr. Karate

Micky 32 wrote: »

More waffle…..looking for excuses to keep a country in lockdown? Lol

Yeah, because they haven't been doing that the WHOLE time. 2 weeks to flatten the curve and here we are a year later.

This is the begining of the end of this pandemic.

For everywhere but here at the rate these idiots are going.

Micky 32

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Yeah, because they haven't been doing that the WHOLE time. 2 weeks to flatten the curve and here we are a year later.



For everywhere but here at the rate these idiots are going.

Why do you think we are in lockdown at the moment? Did you not see the cases we had the last couple of months? We had over 200 people in icu along with over 2000 people hospitalized and thousands of cases a day.

More evidence is emerging vaccines are working better than expected and just the first jab is preventing 80 % hospitalizations. Once everyone gets their 2 jabs lockdowns will fade away……

Micky 32

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

He used the word lockdown.

Aye, Leo is gas. I remember him saying last year when this all kicked off that he didn’t like to use the term lockdown or see it as a ‘lockdown’ something to that effect anyway.

If it does happen it’s because the vaccines don’t work but it’s looking more evident that won’t be the case. There’s good news about the vaccines everyday.

ypres5

Micky 32 wrote: »

If the vaccination program is completed no we won’t be full stop. The Shyte some people post in these forums is actually hilarious :pac: They say wishful thinking makes people feel good, keep it up

with the eu formulating a travel system for member states and the increase in vaccine numbers I feel the method of months of lockdowns is having it's stalingrad moment

patnor1011

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?

You neglecting simple fact that hospitals were constantly overrun until covid came. We lived in that reality for quite long time and miraculously survived.

Maybe solution is simple. Recruit more consultants and healthcare personnel and perhaps build couple more hospitals instead of wasting money to pay people to sit at home. They had a year to do so yet did nothing about that. This government and HSE are not even capable to roll out vaccination for people who are interested properly.

El_Duderino 09

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

Taking a leaf from the UK, which have announced a plan to get everything back to normal by end of June, is it not entirely possible that the vaccination will indeed end the pandemic here by year end and any variants can be dealt with by booster shots, similar to the flu?
I know Boris is stupid at times but he must be basing this whole back to normality on some solid science. Their numbers of cases and deaths are dropping and i get the strong impression the UK wont go into lockdown again. He is going to look extremely silly if, by June , life isnt back to normal.

Yea it’s possible that the vaccine will end the pandemic by the end of the year. That’s the bullseye on the target and nobody has suggested it’s not possible.

Boris Johnson has no problem with looking foolish in the future. If you look at how he handled the whole situation up to now, he has looked very foolish at lots of points up to now particularly regarding following Scotland’s lead with lockdowns and whether to expose schools.

The difference this time is we all want him to be right so we’re assuming he only said it because it’s true. But a quick look at BJ’s record would tell you he isn’t a trustworthy person. But who knows? He might be right. And it would bode great for everyone if he is right.

I would also point out that the test isn’t going to be in June when the weather is warming, it will be in winter. If they can stay without masks or distancing through winter and numbers stay reasonably low, then the whole thing might be more or less over.

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

You neglecting simple fact that hospitals were constantly overrun until covid came. We lived in that reality for quite long time and miraculously survived.

Maybe solution is simple. Recruit more consultants and healthcare personnel and perhaps build couple more hospitals instead of wasting money to pay people to sit at home. They had a year to do so yet did nothing about that. This government and HSE are not even capable to roll out vaccination for people who are interested properly.

Another dodge of the question. It should be a relatively simple question to answer and it should be one of the first questions we address as it’s a pretty important one. Its certainly one of the possibilities for next winter. But so hard to get anyone to engage directly with it.

The question was
“Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?”

patnor1011

gozunda wrote: »

Was that 9 out of 10 cats by any chance?

I reckon that's fairly clear you know little about ERSI studies and polls. And no 'feelings' don't generally count.

You will excuse me if I chose to disregard vague personal anecdotes and generalised anti vaccination sentiment over an ERSI study or expert advice on infection risk thanks all the same.

If you had taken any time to read what was quoted- you may have noted that it was stated




Thanks

Well, some people can stick with what they see on TV and reading on ESRI studies.
Other people like me continued to work and meet with people during the course of their work. I get it, if someone sit in home waiting for daily count being announced on TV they can get a little out of touch with reality of what people really think or want. For that you need to meet people, talk to them and then you may realize that studies and polls were many times wrong.
So I would disregard vague anonymous studies and polls which are mostly designed to fit expectations of people who conduct them.

While I got way more vaccines than most of the people here since I came from country where vaccination was mandatory and involved way more vaccines than is the norm in Ireland, I am pretty much sure I do not need this one.
As far as covid goes majority of the people would get more benefit simply by changing diet and lifestyle than getting this particular vaccine.

Hector Savage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/02/furlough-extended-calls-grow-quicker-reopening/

Why would Sunak extend furlough if they weren't planning on extending the lockdown ?
This in the UK where vaccinations are hitting 30% allready, by Autumn that will be at full adult population, the more this goes on the clearer it becomes they never want to lift restrictions.

patnor1011

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Another dodge of the question. It should be a relatively simple question to answer and it should be one of the first questions we address as it’s a pretty important one. Its certainly one of the possibilities for next winter. But so hard to get anyone to engage directly with it.

What dodge?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The question was
“Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Nothing. Which is precisely the same they did last 15 years at least when we had hospitals overran periodically one or more times every year.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Impose more restrictions?

People wont go for it.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?”

Hospitals will be overran the moment they try to resume normal service and stop being no go zone. Million of cancelled appointments and procedures during the last year will pretty much guarantee that.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

...
If it does happen it’s because the vaccines don’t work but it’s looking more evident that won’t be the case. There’s good news about the vaccines everyday.

The vaccines definitely work, it’s a matter of whether they they work well enough to prevent lockdown or restrictions. We don’t know the answer to that yet. Winter will be the test. But, as you said, signs are looking good at the moment.

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

What dodge?


Nothing. Which is precisely the same they did last 15 years at least when we had hospitals overran periodically one or more times every year.


People wont go for it.


Hospitals will be overran the moment they try to resume normal service and stop being no go zone. Million of cancelled appointments and procedures during the last year will pretty much guarantee that.

That wasn’t a dodge that time. Thanks for answering directly.

Is it worth engaging on the use of the term “overrun”? We saw the hospitals in Spain and Italy this time last year when they got overrun. People lying in the floors in corridors, dying with staff having to triage who they deal with and who they don’t. I’m not sure we have that every year here in Ireland. Do we?

Kermit.de.frog

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/02/furlough-extended-calls-grow-quicker-reopening/

Why would Sunak extend furlough if they weren't planning on extending the lockdown ?
This in the UK where vaccinations are hitting 30% allready, by Autumn that will be at full adult population, the more this goes on the clearer it becomes they never want to lift restrictions.

Anyone who puts a date on anything at the moment is extremely foolish.

It's not a conspiracy, it's just not possible to set arbitrary dates.

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

Well, some people can stick with what they see on TV and reading on ESRI studies.
Other people like me continued to work and meet with people during the course of their work. I get it, if someone sit in home waiting for daily count being announced on TV they can get a little out of touch with reality of what people really think or want. For that you need to meet people, talk to them and then you may realize that studies and polls were many times wrong.
So I would disregard vague anonymous studies and polls which are mostly designed to fit expectations of people who conduct them.
...

Are you suggesting you’re not biased when chatting to people about lockdown?

I’ve chatted to lots of peopep about lockdown and I express how p1sses off I am with lockdown, but people rarely ask both whether I like lockdown AND whether I think it’s necessary at the moment.

Do you ask people both of those questions when you’re having your chats?

I’d always take the professional polling companies on board (note I didn’t say I believe it is completely accurate). Likewise I take on board the chats I had with neighbours as I cleaned the windows at the weekend. I didn’t ask them in-depth survey questions.

Dismissing information because you don’t like it is a terrible way to decide which information to take on board or not.

Scotty #

Mr. Karate wrote: »

For everywhere but here at the rate these idiots are going.

We're doing better than most countries.

But we have kinda flat-lined at this stage. It's going to take us a long long time to get to double digits but at least we're going in the right direction. Plenty others are not.




Worth noting... the correlation between 'cases' and hospital cases' is changing as more and more vaccines are given. So the numbers above are not as bad as they would have been if this were a few months ago. Hopefully anyway.

timmyntc

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone who puts a date on anything at the moment is extremely foolish.

It's not a conspiracy, it's just not possible to set arbitrary dates.

It's totally possible to set dates.
The govt have teams of people working on modelling transmission rates of virus, taking into account vaccination impact on transmission rates (studies show vaccine efficiency vs transmission and hospitalisation), and the reduced spread during summer (we have last year as reference).

We have the data, and with vaccinations ongoing the risk is dropping day by day. Of course its possible to set dates. Throwing your hands up and saying "its not possible" is a cop out by people who cant take responsiblility.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

We're doing better than most countries.

But we have kinda flat-lined at this stage. It's going to take us a long long time to get to double digits but at least we're going in the right direction. Plenty others are not.




Worth noting... the correlation between 'cases' and hospital cases' is changing as more and more vaccines are given. So the numbers above are not as bad as they would have been if this were a few months ago. Hopefully anyway.

We've flat lined when you use an awful graph that can't even show the difference between 1000 & 600 cases.

In reality we haven't flat lined at all

Tazz T

timmyntc wrote: »

We have the data, and with vaccinations ongoing the risk is dropping day by day. Of course its possible to set dates. Throwing your hands up and saying "its not possible" is a cop out by people who cant take responsiblility.

it's not so much a copout as covering their asses with an eye on the next election slipping away.

And on that subject, regarding the discussion of the coming winter and a possible lockdown, that is virtually nailed on given what happened last year If the government has restrictions, such as no international travel, during the summer months, when infections are in single figures, they will absolutely lockdown as soon as they hit double figures in the run up to Xmas.

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

timmyntc

Tazz T wrote: »

it's not so much a copout as covering their asses with an eye on the next election slipping away.

And on that subject, regarding the discussion of the coming winter and a possible lockdown, that is virtually nailed on given what happened last year If the government has restrictions, such as no international travel, during the summer months, when infections are in single figures, they will absolutely lockdown as soon as they hit double figures in the run up to Xmas.

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

It's a copout. Someone with ambition would say - we have the modelling, we can predict reasonably well how things would go, here are some estimated dates for lifting restrictions on X, then Y, then Z (like the UK are doing)

Instead its just 'wait and see'. Our govt dont even have a best case scenario for reopening - they have literally no plan. Hopeless.

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/02/furlough-extended-calls-grow-quicker-reopening/

Why would Sunak extend furlough if they weren't planning on extending the lockdown ?
This in the UK where vaccinations are hitting 30% allready, by Autumn that will be at full adult population, the more this goes on the clearer it becomes they never want to lift restrictions.

A very long "just two weeks to flatten the curve".

NIMAN

I too think we should be open come the summer onwards, but it was worrying that nphet mentioned autumn and likely increased cases in one of its pressers last week.

I remember Fergal Bowers mentioning it last week.