When will it all end?

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

If someone has a PHD in a stem subject and they are antivax it would be suggested that the credibility of their phd be called into question.

This is the sort of rigid thinking that is rather irritating when it comes to the current moment.

You speak of "anti-vax" as though to be skeptical of a measles or pertussis vaccination that has been tested for years and uses a technology that has been around for decades on the grounds of autism or "chemicals" or whatever those people complain about on a given day, is the same thing as being skeptical of a new technology that simply does not have (and cannot yet have) a long-term safety profile.

It's a nonsensical claim.

"I am skeptical of this medical intervention that has no long term safety profile to speak of" is a far more reasonable position than "I will take this vaccine because I have been told that people who are against vaccines are morons and I don't want to be seen as a moron."

El_Duderino 09

Deeper Blue wrote: »

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised. Many of these would've been in the older age groups. That's 0.0067% of cases ending up in hospital. For context, 0.0067% of our entire population is 328.

Furthermore, all vaccines have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations despite the different variants.

So tell me again why this will go on beyond this year? And don't give me some hypothetical killer mutation BS

I don't know that it will go on beyond this year. The signs are great about the vaccine and the reduction in transmissions and hospitalisations. But they are still living with restrictions. The test will be when they have rolled out the vaccine and they reopen fully and go through a winter. That's the test, not vaccinating half the population and still living with lots of restrictions in spring.

In short, the experiment hasn't been run yet so pretending to know the answer is foolish. If someone tells you they know the answer, they're lying to you.

Scotty #

Deeper Blue wrote: »

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised.

And that's WITH restrictions in place.

Israel is still in lockdown.

Deeper Blue

Deeper Blue wrote: »

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised. Many of these would've been in the older age groups. That's 0.0067% of cases ending up in hospital. For context, 0.0067% of our entire population is 328.

Furthermore, all vaccines have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations despite the different variants.

So tell me again why this will go on beyond this year? And don't give me some hypothetical killer mutation BS

It also seems as though SARS-CoV-2 immunity may be closer to SARS-CoV-1 immunity than to the other human coronaviruses, involving T-cell and B-cell response, and may therefore last longer.

Nothing is certain yet, but people who got SARS-CoV-1 and survived still maintained immunity through T-cell response 17 (and counting) years later. So... fingers crossed.

bluelamp

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What does the bit in bold have to do with the reality of how things will work out?

Nothing at all - I'm just making the point that they have less skin in the game to begin with.

The focus of most people is how can we return to doing the things we enjoy in as safe a manner as possible, while accepting some unavoidable risk.

The people I was referring to, seem to think that avoiding certain situations forever is the best solution, because it has no real impact on their own lives.

Tazz T

Scotty # wrote: »

And that's WITH restrictions in place.

Israel is still in lockdown.

Sorry. I don't get your point. What's that got to with the efficacy of the vaccine?

Scotty #

Tazz T wrote: »

Sorry. I don't get your point. What's that got to with the efficacy of the vaccine?

The poster is suggesting we won't need restrictions after the vaccine rollout is complete. They are highlighting this by quoting figures from Israel, a country which has not come out of lockdown and still has many restrictions in place.

Also the figures are way off. Israel has vacc'ed over 4.5m

El_Duderino 09

Tazz T wrote: »

Sorry. I don't get your point. What's that got to with the efficacy of the vaccine?

Israel is having great initial results, but they're still in a lockdown. So the test will be when they have completed the vaccine rollout and they have no restrictions. Then what will happen to transmissions, hospitalisations and deaths? We don't know yet.

bluelamp

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If things go badly wrong in winter then I don't really know what that means but it would surely mean there will be a need for a new definition of normality.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but realistically I think the problem there is that people will go back to their "old normal" in their own way.

For example, drinking will happen in houses and shebeens instead of pubs, hairdressers will operate from their homes, gyms will open on the sly - especially in rural areas with non existent garda presence. There were plenty of after hours clubs in Dublin city that opened at 3am - I'm sure they would be open since they operated in secrecy in normal times anyway.

We are already seeing more and more of this - it will only get worse as time goes on.

My point is that more thought needs to go in to how to operate these businesses while mitigating as much risk as possible - because pushing it underground poses more of a health risk.

Irish Stones

Deleted User wrote: »

It also seems as though SARS-CoV-2 immunity may be closer to SARS-CoV-1 immunity than to the other human coronaviruses, involving T-cell and B-cell response, and may therefore last longer.

Nothing is certain yet, but people who got SARS-CoV-1 and survived still maintained immunity through T-cell response 17 (and counting) years later. So... fingers crossed.

Just think if one day the experts say that immunity (both natural and from vaccine) is lifelong, and that those who had recovered or been vaccinated were not trasmitting the virus anymore.
And all these people had to wear those masks anyway, well, how will they (or part of them) feel like? What should they (or part of them) think?

JMNolan

Israel lifting more restrictions this week

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1614631163-israel-to-lift-more-coronavirus-restrictions-on-march-7

including "Those holding the contentious Green Passports, which can be obtained online one week after receiving the second vaccine jab, will be able to opt for indoor dining as well"

Deeper Blue

Scotty # wrote: »

Also the figures are way off. Israel has vacc'ed over 4.5m

They have but i was quoting from a study that had looked at 1.82 million of those

We have to get back to normal after vaccines.

If not, things will start getting really bad. Big companies going under and people defaulting on mortgages etc. We’re not a million miles away with the news yesterday from BOI and Aer Lingus.

And then a respiratory illness won’t seem so bad when that happens.

Multipass

JMNolan wrote: »

Israel lifting more restrictions this week

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1614631163-israel-to-lift-more-coronavirus-restrictions-on-march-7

including "Those holding the contentious Green Passports, which can be obtained online one week after receiving the second vaccine jab, will be able to opt for indoor dining as well"

Hope we don’t see that here - we’d have all those most at risk from covid dining out, while those at least risk are barred, as they wait for vaccines. Insane.

JMNolan

Multipass wrote: »

Hope we don’t see that here - we’d have all those most at risk from covid dining out, while those at least risk are barred, as they wait for vaccines. Insane.

Ah no, those without the two jabs can eat outdoors at the restaurants.

Multipass

JMNolan wrote: »

Ah no, those without the two jabs can eat outdoors at the restaurants.

In Ireland? Joy.

JMNolan

It can be done well, jabbed inside, the great unjabbed outside.

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

We have to get back to normal after vaccines.

If not, things will start getting really bad. Big companies going under and people defaulting on mortgages etc. We’re not a million miles away with the news yesterday from BOI and Aer Lingus.

And then a respiratory illness won’t seem so bad when that happens.

You forgot to insert the word "mild" before the respiratory illness part of your comment. :rolleyes: In any case footfall in BOI as in all the other banks had been in decline long before Covid -19 ever appeared with online banking becoming more and more widespread. It was only a matter of time before this decision to close branches would have been made. The virus has just brought it forward a little. Other banks will be announcing the same soon enough too, whether restrictions are still in place or not.

Kunta Kinte

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

You forgot to insert the word "mild" before the respiratory illness part of your comment. :rolleyes: In any case footfall in BOI as in all the other banks had been in decline long before Covid -19 ever appeared with online banking becoming more and more widespread. It was only a matter of time before this decision to close branches would have been made. The virus has just brought it forward a little. Other banks will be announcing the same soon enough too, whether restrictions are still in place or not.

That’s funny because there was long queues in my town for all bank branches just the other day.

Lots of people still go to branches.

I worked in AIB for some time as well.

HansKroenke

Ah yes, the great ignorance of the response "covid just accelerated trends away from bad businesses". Completely untrue of course given businesses have been told to close and not even trade by the government, not due to behavioral changes of the public as a result of the pandemic. Why would the government even impose restrictions if people were adapting their lifestyles anyway to deal with covid?

franciscanpunk

Deeper Blue wrote: »

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised. Many of these would've been in the older age groups. That's 0.0067% of cases ending up in hospital. For context, 0.0067% of our entire population is 328.

Furthermore, all vaccines have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations despite the different variants.

So tell me again why this will go on beyond this year? And don't give me some hypothetical killer mutation BS

That makes logical sense if them figures accurate, not disputing just not something i know.

this country does not seem to have accepted that vaccines significantly reduce risk of hospitalisation or death regardless of vaccines.. you heard MM call the UK strain of tye virus, the main strain here, a 'new virus'.

seansouth36

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s funny because there was long queues in my town for all bank branches just the other day.

Lots of people still go to branches.

I worked in AIB for some time as well.

You seeing a long queue outside a few bank branches doesn't prove anything aside from the fact that "lots of people go to branches" which is obvious. The fact that you used to work in AIB is also totally meaningless. The number of bank branches across Europe fell by 21% between 2008 and 2018 - nothing to with COVID, everything to do with the rise of mobile banking. The same has happened with online shopping decimating bricks and mortar retail in the past 5-10 years.

PTH2009

One thing i am happy about is there will be no obligation to have a €9 meal when the pubs reopen. The logic of that was so political and made SFA difference only making the night more expensive

Seems to be a bit of good news coming from the vaccine effectiveness and the numbers going down in the hospitals. Lets hope its not just a case of things going right 1 day then going to **** the next.

Be a little ironic if things were in great shape this Paddy's Day regarding numbers etc but have a feeling they could boost them a little to instill a bit of fear to stop complacency

CowboyTed

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

PTH2009

CowboyTed wrote: »

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

Hard to know but we all know there an easy target and made the fall guy for numbers rising

The numbers were not overly low when they briefly opened the end of September 2020 (the wet pubs)

CollectThat

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines? We can't afford to keep all these supports to businesses, we will have to pay the bill eventually. Talk of Social Distancing for years, that would never work in bars / restaurants. It wouldn't be financially feasible for them to open if only (lets say) 50% of their usual capacity can be used. They can afford it now since 80% of staff wages are paid for by supports. Once this is removed we'll have to allow a return to normal practices.

There's going to be a slight increase in cases when the schools go back. Completely meaningless and will cause basically no problems in reality but will be used to justify some panic and distraction while we continue to piss-arse about with the vaccines.

CowboyTed

PTH2009 wrote: »

Hard to know but we all know there an easy target and made the fall guy for numbers rising

The numbers were not overly low when they briefly opened the end of September 2020 (the wet pubs)

Full numbers for context:
Date 7 day average Percentage Increase
14/03/2020 16 479%
21/03/2020 94 496%
28/03/2020 233 148%
04/04/2020 313 34%
11/04/2020 429 37%
18/04/2020 574 34%
25/04/2020 536 -7%
02/05/2020 374 -30%
09/05/2020 226 -39%
16/05/2020 184 -19%
23/05/2020 76 -59%
30/05/2020 53 -31%
06/06/2020 41 -22%
13/06/2020 18 -56%
20/06/2020 14 -23%
27/06/2020 10 -29%
04/07/2020 11 10%
11/07/2020 18 66%
18/07/2020 21 17%
25/07/2020 17 -20%
01/08/2020 35 104%
08/08/2020 76 118%
15/08/2020 80 4%
22/08/2020 105 32%
29/08/2020 118 12%
05/09/2020 118 0%
12/09/2020 171 45%
19/09/2020 263 54%
26/09/2020 293 11%
03/10/2020 448 53%
10/10/2020 580 29%
17/10/2020 1004 73%
24/10/2020 1065 6%
31/10/2020 773 -27%
07/11/2020 501 -35%
14/11/2020 397 -21%
21/11/2020 383 -3%
28/11/2020 264 -31%
05/12/2020 293 11%
12/12/2020 265 -9%
19/12/2020 435 64%
26/12/2020 949 118%
02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%
12/06/2021 48 -17%
19/06/2021 40 -17%
26/06/2021 33 -17%
03/07/2021 27 -17%
10/07/2021 23 -17%
17/07/2021 19 -17%
24/07/2021 16 -17%
31/07/2021 13 -17%
07/08/2021 11 -17%
14/08/2021 9 -17%

This seems to be a lot more stubborn this time...

If we get -30% average we would be 92 by 10/4/21 and single digits by 29/5/21...

dublin_paul

CowboyTed wrote: »

This seems to be a lot more stubborn this time...

Because people are tired of this, the lower it goes the lower compliance gets. We won't be single digits until mass vaccination (if even then). Open up!

El_Duderino 09

CowboyTed wrote: »

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

I don’t understand what I’m seeing here. How is 783 an 18% reduction on 808? Isn’t it more like a 3% reduction on the previous week?