When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

What dodge?


Nothing. Which is precisely the same they did last 15 years at least when we had hospitals overran periodically one or more times every year.


People wont go for it.


Hospitals will be overran the moment they try to resume normal service and stop being no go zone. Million of cancelled appointments and procedures during the last year will pretty much guarantee that.

That wasn’t a dodge that time. Thanks for answering directly.

Is it worth engaging on the use of the term “overrun”? We saw the hospitals in Spain and Italy this time last year when they got overrun. People lying in the floors in corridors, dying with staff having to triage who they deal with and who they don’t. I’m not sure we have that every year here in Ireland. Do we?

Kermit.de.frog

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/02/furlough-extended-calls-grow-quicker-reopening/

Why would Sunak extend furlough if they weren't planning on extending the lockdown ?
This in the UK where vaccinations are hitting 30% allready, by Autumn that will be at full adult population, the more this goes on the clearer it becomes they never want to lift restrictions.

Anyone who puts a date on anything at the moment is extremely foolish.

It's not a conspiracy, it's just not possible to set arbitrary dates.

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

Well, some people can stick with what they see on TV and reading on ESRI studies.
Other people like me continued to work and meet with people during the course of their work. I get it, if someone sit in home waiting for daily count being announced on TV they can get a little out of touch with reality of what people really think or want. For that you need to meet people, talk to them and then you may realize that studies and polls were many times wrong.
So I would disregard vague anonymous studies and polls which are mostly designed to fit expectations of people who conduct them.
...

Are you suggesting you’re not biased when chatting to people about lockdown?

I’ve chatted to lots of peopep about lockdown and I express how p1sses off I am with lockdown, but people rarely ask both whether I like lockdown AND whether I think it’s necessary at the moment.

Do you ask people both of those questions when you’re having your chats?

I’d always take the professional polling companies on board (note I didn’t say I believe it is completely accurate). Likewise I take on board the chats I had with neighbours as I cleaned the windows at the weekend. I didn’t ask them in-depth survey questions.

Dismissing information because you don’t like it is a terrible way to decide which information to take on board or not.

Scotty #

Mr. Karate wrote: »

For everywhere but here at the rate these idiots are going.

We're doing better than most countries.

But we have kinda flat-lined at this stage. It's going to take us a long long time to get to double digits but at least we're going in the right direction. Plenty others are not.




Worth noting... the correlation between 'cases' and hospital cases' is changing as more and more vaccines are given. So the numbers above are not as bad as they would have been if this were a few months ago. Hopefully anyway.

timmyntc

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone who puts a date on anything at the moment is extremely foolish.

It's not a conspiracy, it's just not possible to set arbitrary dates.

It's totally possible to set dates.
The govt have teams of people working on modelling transmission rates of virus, taking into account vaccination impact on transmission rates (studies show vaccine efficiency vs transmission and hospitalisation), and the reduced spread during summer (we have last year as reference).

We have the data, and with vaccinations ongoing the risk is dropping day by day. Of course its possible to set dates. Throwing your hands up and saying "its not possible" is a cop out by people who cant take responsiblility.

AdamD

Scotty # wrote: »

We're doing better than most countries.

But we have kinda flat-lined at this stage. It's going to take us a long long time to get to double digits but at least we're going in the right direction. Plenty others are not.




Worth noting... the correlation between 'cases' and hospital cases' is changing as more and more vaccines are given. So the numbers above are not as bad as they would have been if this were a few months ago. Hopefully anyway.

We've flat lined when you use an awful graph that can't even show the difference between 1000 & 600 cases.

In reality we haven't flat lined at all

Tazz T

timmyntc wrote: »

We have the data, and with vaccinations ongoing the risk is dropping day by day. Of course its possible to set dates. Throwing your hands up and saying "its not possible" is a cop out by people who cant take responsiblility.

it's not so much a copout as covering their asses with an eye on the next election slipping away.

And on that subject, regarding the discussion of the coming winter and a possible lockdown, that is virtually nailed on given what happened last year If the government has restrictions, such as no international travel, during the summer months, when infections are in single figures, they will absolutely lockdown as soon as they hit double figures in the run up to Xmas.

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

timmyntc

Tazz T wrote: »

it's not so much a copout as covering their asses with an eye on the next election slipping away.

And on that subject, regarding the discussion of the coming winter and a possible lockdown, that is virtually nailed on given what happened last year If the government has restrictions, such as no international travel, during the summer months, when infections are in single figures, they will absolutely lockdown as soon as they hit double figures in the run up to Xmas.

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

It's a copout. Someone with ambition would say - we have the modelling, we can predict reasonably well how things would go, here are some estimated dates for lifting restrictions on X, then Y, then Z (like the UK are doing)

Instead its just 'wait and see'. Our govt dont even have a best case scenario for reopening - they have literally no plan. Hopeless.

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/02/furlough-extended-calls-grow-quicker-reopening/

Why would Sunak extend furlough if they weren't planning on extending the lockdown ?
This in the UK where vaccinations are hitting 30% allready, by Autumn that will be at full adult population, the more this goes on the clearer it becomes they never want to lift restrictions.

A very long "just two weeks to flatten the curve".

NIMAN

I too think we should be open come the summer onwards, but it was worrying that nphet mentioned autumn and likely increased cases in one of its pressers last week.

I remember Fergal Bowers mentioning it last week.

timmyntc

NIMAN wrote: »

I too think we should be open come the summer onwards, but it was worrying that nphet mentioned autumn and likely increased cases in one of its pressers last week.

I remember Fergal Bowers mentioning it last week.

Well yeah of course, summer should have lowest spread due to good weather and people socialising outdoors, (pretty much the best ventilated environment we have).

Its expected that as weather cools, people socialise indoors more and viruses spread more. Its aa moot point though - by that stage vaccinations should stop 90% of at risk population from needing hospitalisation should they get the virus. As vaccinations pick up, case numbers become less and less of a relevant metric.

bucketybuck

Tazz T wrote: »

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

I knew from the get-go that a dangerous precedent was being set. Lockdowns have been normalised. But anyone who raised concerns was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

Scotty #

bucketybuck wrote: »

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

bucketybuck wrote: »

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

the kelt

bucketybuck wrote: »

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

I agree, mentioning lockdown being used to reduce waiting lists for example was a bit of a shot across the bows of the nation.

The only thing to remember is as soon as the money ends, this ends, thats why it will be key to keep an eye on our EU associates and what theyre doing.

If other countries in the EU are opened up and getting back to normal the game is up. If Europe has a certain % of population vaccinated and can get through winter without lockdowns on that basis why whould the tax payers across these countries fund lockdown in Ireland just because the health service in this country is an absolute shambles and NPHET eye an opportunity using free money to eradicate waiting lists and reduce the pre COVID overcrowding theres always been

HansKroenke

CollectThat wrote: »

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines? We can't afford to keep all these supports to businesses, we will have to pay the bill eventually. Talk of Social Distancing for years, that would never work in bars / restaurants. It wouldn't be financially feasible for them to open if only (lets say) 50% of their usual capacity can be used. They can afford it now since 80% of staff wages are paid for by supports. Once this is removed we'll have to allow a return to normal practices.

This is an excellent point. If places have to limit numbers for whatever reason, they won't make as much money so the government will have to step in and keep helping them pay their rates, rents, furloughed employees. It will not be possible to have the cake in the form any sort of restrictions which limit the ability of a business to trade while at the same time eat it by way of unwinding the supports of rent and rates breaks, debt forgiveness, employee income payments etc.

I think what happens in the UK is going to be a good guide for what happens here as they are looking to get ahead of us and the EU with easing due to the aggressive vaccination targets. If social distancing and masks are reduced to just guidance rather than being mandated by law over there, then we will see in the coming 3/4 months what is likely to occur here. Texas has now fully done away with masks and social distancing, the 2nd most populated state in the USA. This gives me hope that all restrictions will be fully done away with once the covid hospital and death numbers collapse due to widespread vaccinations.

AdamD

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.



- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

You keep posting this yet all polls so far show that take up will be higher than that in Ireland. Beginning to think you aren't exactly posting in good faith.

timmyntc

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.



- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

The main point though is its not about case numbers its hospitalisations & deaths. It doesnt matter if we dont vaccinate everyone, so long as we vaccinate those most at risk from the virus. Once we do that, hospital admissions will fall off a cliff. We can have 1000s of cases a day and barely a trickle will be admitted to hospital.

NIMAN

timmyntc wrote: »

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

Are under 18s even on the list to be vaccinated?

I thought I read that the vaccines are only approved for use in 18+.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

The main point though is its not about case numbers its hospitalisations & deaths. It doesnt matter if we dont vaccinate everyone, so long as we vaccinate those most at risk from the virus. Once we do that, hospital admissions will fall off a cliff. We can have 1000s of cases a day and barely a trickle will be admitted to hospital.

But people are obsessed with case numbers. That's the problem. 2,000 cases with zero context sounds scary. And don't think RTÉ won't continue to scare people with case numbers. Too much damage has been done at this stage. Do people think people who walk to the other side of the road to avoid passing other people are suddenly going to snap out of it and go back to walking past people on the footpath? They might, but it'll take years.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

But people are obsessed with case numbers. That's the problem. 2,000 cases with zero context sounds scary. And don't think RTÉ won't continue to scare people with case numbers. Too much damage has been done at this stage. Do people think people who walk to the other side of the road to avoid passing other people are suddenly going to snap out of it and go back to walking past people on the footpath? They might, but it'll take years.

Once people are vaccinated they wont give a flying ****. It's seen as immunity and you can do what you want and see who you want.

There of course will still be the odd curtain twitchers, but majority will be fed up at that stage. At end of the day compliance was mostly out of fear & selfishness, so take away a persons fear of covid and they wont comply any more.

bucketybuck

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

Thats nice and all, but actually irrelevant.

We do not need everybody to be vaccinated, we just need the vulnerable to be vaccinated. And the logic behind that is so blindingly obvious that I see no need to explain it.

Comments such as yours are exactly the sort of thing I am talking about. If next winter we are still using cases among healthy people as justification for lockdowns then we could no longer deny that the decision makers are not acting honestly.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated they wont give a flying ****. It's seen as immunity and you can do what you want and see who you want.

There of course will still be the odd curtain twitchers, but majority will be fed up at that stage. At end of the day compliance was mostly out of fear & selfishness, so take away a persons fear of covid and they wont comply any more.

I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism. If RTÉ continue to produce scary looking graphs about case numbers, which they will, loads of people will continue to be terrified.

I don't see NPHET exiting stage left in a hurry. They have taken everything from us. Our freedom, our dignity, our sense of worth. It's an astonishing reality.

Our freedoms are fundamental.

HansKroenke

bucketybuck wrote: »

Thats nice and all, but actually irrelevant.

We do not need everybody to be vaccinated, we just need the vulnerable to be vaccinated. And the logic behind that is so blindingly obvious that I see no need to explain it.

Comments such as yours are exactly the sort of thing I am talking about. If next winter we are still using cases among healthy people as justification for lockdowns then we could no longer deny that the decision makers are not acting honestly.

This.

Responder XY

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.



- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it. 

bucketybuck

Deleted User wrote: »

They have taken everything from us.

Its worse, we gave it to them.

Responder XY

Responder XY wrote: »

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it. 

I hope you're right, but where is the evidence to suggest that the population would not accept further restrictions? The public has fully supported draconian restrictions for the guts of a year. And, as I keep saying, there's no opposition, in the media or in politics. Who's going to push for an end to restrictions? Are millions of people going to protest?

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

Its worse, we gave it to them.

You're right. And not so much as a whimper.

FlubberJones

Responder XY wrote: »

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it. 

have to agree with the last statement, if they refuse it so **** them, if they get sick and even if they die they had a chance at some protection and declined.
The rest of us, take the vaccine and get back to normal lives.. which I for one simply can't wait for and will not accept restrictions because some prick thinks the vaccine is a conspiracy or some other ****e

HansKroenke

FlubberJones wrote: »

have to agree with the last statement, if they refuse it so **** them, if they get sick and even if they die they had a chance at some protection and declined.
The rest of us, take the vaccine and get back to normal lives.. which I for one simply can't wait for and will not accept restrictions because some prick thinks the vaccine is a conspiracy or some other ****e

I also take this attitude with those that eat meat and clog up our health service with their diseases as a direct result of doing so as well as with smokers and drinkers and even obese people. It's their choice but fcuk them and their health, they should know the consequences. Fear of them clogging up our hospitals and taking away covid resources is not enough of a justification for me to have restrictions imposed on me.