When will it all end?

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

I hope I'm very wrong.

Not having a go at you , but you are very wrong as human history has demonstrated in the aftermath of all pandemics no matter how serious they were.
Of course you yourself may never wish to partake fully in society again, still not a go at you.

stefanovich

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

If the Chinese borders had been closed last Jan it might have not gone globally endemic but we are so far past that point now it is irrelevant.

Any suggestion at the time was branded as racist but then Ardern did it and everyone was in awe of their success because she was female. :pac:

gozunda

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I fully agree with this. My issue is that the messaging from government and from the kind of extremists RTE tends to entertain has been the opposite of this lately - more along the lines of "dawn is only a possibility, we're willing to accept remaining in darkness indefinitely as an acceptable policy decision if the vaccine doesn't bring the dawn". That's something the vast majority of people simply won't accept. That's what is implied by the idea of maintaining restrictions well into next year even if we have mass vaccination by Autumn - because it implies that if mass vaccination doesn't result in a retreat of the virus, the government is willing to condemn us to this living death in perpetuity, without any other options being put on the table.

Id certainly agree. And what I've highlighted is the cue. I tend to give most such opinion shows a wide berth. That's as much rabble rousing as claiming we'll never see the light of day again or wtte. And of course no one will accept that- simply because it won't happen. Feeding either of those streams or giving them credence simply allows the politically motivated more credence than they ever deserve.

bucketybuck

stefanovich wrote: »

Any suggestion at the time was branded as racist but then Ardern did it and everyone was in awe of their success because she was female. :pac:

Jacinda Arden closed China's borders? That was some trick.

Tazz T

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

bucketybuck

Tazz T wrote: »

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

Not to mention Biden saying that every adult in America will be vaccinated by the end of May. Thats 328 million people. Then the UK are doing half a million a day at this stage.

We have less than 5 million and are still talking about August and September for some people.

But mention this and all you get is "Supply problems, this stuff is hard". :rolleyes:

Batattackrat

Batattackrat wrote: »

How am I trolling? Once hospital numbers are low and the most vunerable vacinated which is the over 70's there is no reason not to move to Level 2.

In 2017/2018 there were 4000 people in hospital over the year with flu but didn't shut down the country. 191 admitted to ICU over the same year due to flu.

Once the hospitals are stable and the most vunerable protected it's time to open up.

Isn’t it funny how we went into lockdown based on extreme worst case scenario models that showed thousands of deaths. Thousands as in 5 or 6 figure numbers.

Now people seem to think we should stay in lockdown until we have almost 0 cases and 0 in hospital.

It’s going to take years to recover from the fallout of this. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.

Nermal

SheepsClothing wrote: »

It's a big problem when a cancer patient can't get treated or a person involved in a motorcycle accident can't get a place in ICU. You can throw out platitudes like "that's life", but in 1st world democracies, that's not life. If you are in a car accident, you should be able to get treatment and if you are denied that essential life saving help, societal trust degrades.

Obviously, car/motorcycle accidents for whom medical treatment has a high chance of a successful outcome would get priority over marginal COVID patients.

All nations - first world democracies or not - have to make tough decisions on resource allocation, both in ordinary and extraordinary times.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Fair answers, and no I do not.

I do, however, believe that a point will come at which for the sake of not just the economy but the nation's mental health, we will have to make a judgment call on this - and I personally believe that that point is going to arrive before the end of this year. I certainly don't believe that two full years of that kind of lockdown, as has been recently raised as a possibility by Leo and others, should be countenanced at all. I think that's fundamentally where we differ.

...

Fair play. Very honest post.

I think, given he government's track record, that they will most likely reimpose restrictions (not necessarily lockdowns) this winter if they are necessary. There may come a point where they just have to live with high hospitalisations and deaths but i really doubt that will come before the first winter after the vaccination programme begins. Given that children won't be vaccinated before the cold weather, I think they will try to supress spread this coming winter rather than letting it rip through the country when they haven't yet completed the vaccination rollout.

But the one factor that could change the whole calculation is how other countries behave. A group of countries create a "social norm" and one notable exception is Sweden. Sweden doing something different shows how similar the rest of the government's approaches have been. If the rest of Europe throws its hands in the air and drops all restrictions and commits to not reposing them no matter how overrun the hospitals become in winter, then Ireland would likely follow suit. but unless that happens then I think they are likely to reimpose restrictions next winter if they need to.

On the messaging point, I think they have been very careful to craft their statements. They know people will read what they want into them and it's not the most accurate way to relay information. But the truth is that they don't know the answers. And people might say they want the government to be honest and say they don't know, but that has been researched to death and it doesn't play well for government to admit when they don't know - people don't reward them for being honest. They do however reward certainty even when it's a big lie The line form the movie In The Loop comes to mind - the minister was being told the facts for and against his idea and he interrupted as the advisor was getting to the facts against his idea and said, "in the land of truth, the man with one fact is king". The voters would more harshly punish the government for honestly saying "we don't know" than they would a government who makes statements with certainty and then reverses them later on.

Tazz T

bucketybuck wrote: »

Not to mention Biden saying that every adult in America will be vaccinated by the end of May. Thats 328 million people. Then the UK are doing half a million a day at this stage.

We have less than 5 million and are still talking about August and September for some people.

But mention this and all you get is "Supply problems, this stuff is hard". :rolleyes:

Economies of scale, in fairness. Texas are less than 20% vaxxed and numbers seem to be rising even before this. Not exactly cautious. But I am very interested to see what happens. I'd expect to see at least a drawing out of the third wave compared to other states, but more importantly, after that, we'll know if the US is coming out of this the third wave is the last one, and if the same is likely here (although I wouldn't be recommending the Texan 'gung-ho' strategy).

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Isn’t it funny how we went into lockdown based on extreme worst case scenario models that showed thousands of deaths. Thousands as in 5 or 6 figure numbers.

Now people seem to think we should stay in lockdown until we have almost 0 cases and 0 in hospital.

It’s going to take years to recover from the fallout of this. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.

I believe the government adopted increased restrictions as case numbers rose and not on any one 'extreme worst case scenario"

As to the highlighted bit - which people are those?

KanyeSouthEast

C.O.Y.B.I.B wrote: »

Surely Level2 by mid June brings us back to where we were that time last year , but with the added bonus of a lot people vaccinated , particularly the "vulnerable". I'd be hopeful that we would have staycations , pubs and restaurants with table service , kids sports activities etc... All operating by mid June as the were last year. However I would expect masks to still be in play , sanitising equipment for sports , no spectators , people spread out in pubs , no large groups etc....

What a bleak summer that is! I’m sorry but honestly no spectators at sports, trapped in the country again, masks for the optics again.

Mr. Karate

Tazz T wrote: »

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

Florida has been open since August of last year and people didn't start dropping like flies. The Streets certainly aren't filled with mounds of dead bodies or whatever nonsense the fear mongers in the media like to paint. I doubt Texas or Mississippi will have any problems.

Tazz T

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Florida has been open since August of last year and people didn't start dropping like flies. The Streets certainly aren't filled with mounds of dead bodies or whatever nonsense the fear mongers in the media like to paint. I doubt Texas or Mississippi will have any problems.

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

Tazz T

Tazz T wrote: »

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

Actually I see they do have social distancing and masks guidelines in place and are cracking down on spring breakers gatherings today. But I note that bars and restaurants are open.

Irish Stones

Tazz T wrote: »

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

I have friends in Florida which told me they are free to move quite freely, they can go shopping or to restaurants, or walking. Face masks are required in closed spaces, but it seems they are living better than we are.

Tazz T

It think quite a bit of the US is like that. I have friends in Ohio that said there were restrictions but everyone ignored them until they were lifted.

At the other end of the spectrum here are we....

gozunda

Irish Stones wrote: »

I have friends in Florida which told me they are free to move quite freely, they can go shopping or to restaurants, or walking. Face masks are required in closed spaces, but it seems they are living better than we are.

With its high percentage of elderly people and retirees - I don't think Florida has had a particularly easy time of it tbh. This from the middle of February.

10,000 residents, staff of nursing homes dead from COVID Since the pandemic began,

the far more populous county had recorded the most COVID-19 deaths at its long-term care facilities.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2021/02/12/10-000-residents-staff-florida-nursing-homes-dead-covid/6738545002/

Flags lowered in remembrance of Florida Covid deaths

The Florida Department of Health reported Tuesday that 31,135 Floridians have died from COVID-related illnesses. An additional 561 non-residents have died in the state. To date, there have been 1,918,100 documented COVID-19 cases in Florida.

https://news.wjct.org/post/flags-be-lowered-wednesday-remembrance-florida-covid-deaths

drunkmonkey

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Are you trolling? No way will this happen nor should it.

Of course it will, Ciara Kelly has called it already..watch the media change tune soon..

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1365238174809735169?s=20

Plumbthedepths

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Of course it will, Ciara Kelly has called it already..watch the media change tune soon..

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1365238174809735169?s=20

Ah people shouldn't worry RTE will keep up the scaremongering with the ISAG scripted pieces that Claire Byrne is so fond of.

Beasty

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Are you trolling? No way will this happen nor should it.

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Take your conspiracy theory bull****e to the proper forum. This is not the place for it.

Please report any posts you have an issue with and leave the modding to the mods

Klonker

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

The British government has made it clear that British society will have to learn to live with Covid once the lockdown ends and will have to tolerate a level of hospitalisations and deaths.

The Irish government hasn't made that jump yet and that is what the problem is.

This virus once it became clear it was endemic was never going to go away and herd immunity (be that natural or vaccine or both) was always what was going to happen.

If the Chinese borders had been closed last Jan it might have not gone globally endemic but we are so far past that point now it is irrelevant.

The national discourse has to move to a line in the sand policy which clearly tells people that once we reach a certain point in the vaccination program we will fully and entirely open up. There comes a point where you have to say we have done all we can (and this will be that line in the sand vaccine point).

Without this there is no end in sight but one thing everyone has to wake up to is that we simply have to accept that this virus will continue to make some people sick for the foreseeable future but we must get on with life. Failure to accept this is child like fantasy stuff and so incredibly naive.

Time for our health advisors and politicians to grow up and act like adults.

This is an endemic virus just like the flu and common colds are endemic.

Great post. The government and NPHET should come out soon and make it clear to people that covid isn't going away anytime soon and people are going to die of covid for the next few years at least. Some people don't realise this will be the case and think we can get rid of it and think 'one death is one too many'. Be honest with the people and manage the expectations now.

ujjjjjjjjj

Klonker wrote: »

Great post. The government and NPHET should come out soon and make it clear to people that covid isn't going away anytime soon and people are going to die of covid for the next few years at least. Some people don't realise this will be the case and think we can get rid of it and think 'one death is one too many'. Be honest with the people and manage the expectations now.

Good point, I think what most sensible people want is honesty and from talking to people in the UK I know they are broadly happy now that there is a defined endpoint with the middle of June (21st) being given as a date when all legal restrictions will be lifted.

I understand we are miles behind the UK on the vaccine roleout and it is well documented now what an utter horlicks the EU have made of it and the political stance in this country of refusing to go outside the EU procurement process is also roundly criticised but we are where we are.

If we are 3 months behind the UK give people a date in September when all legal restrictions will be lifted. It gives hope. You can like the UK of course have caveats.

But the endless lack of detail, constant scare mongering from the media and ever increasing caution from NPHET and a weak government and an even weaker opposition and we get to where we are now. The talk of more problems next winter is pure speculation from NPHET and the lockdown mob but is depressing people as they see potential restrictions in place into 2022.

Time for our politicians to grow up and tell people the truth, covid is here to stay but once our elderly & vulnerable are vaccinated hospitalizations and deaths will be low but it won't ever be 0.

We need to all move on and do a little bit of growing up in the process. Life is never without risk and Covid once our elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated will be nothing of great risk and certainly nothing worse than bad flu outbreaks we have seen many times before.

mmclo

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Yeah I really value the nuance on Joe Duffy and Claire Byrne

Plumbthedepths

mmclo wrote: »

Yeah I really value the nuance on Joe Duffy and Claire Byrne

Do you not place a value on the scripted ISAG pieces on the Claire Byrne show? Or the hysteria on Whineline generated by the two pensioners on holidays in Spain?
Supported by your license fee.......;-)

MadYaker

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Given the way this Govt has been acting throughout all of this you can't blame people for thinking this way. Especially since no one is willing to tell One Trick Pony Holohan to take his indefinite lockdowns and shove them.

I love how everybody just assumes there's an alternative option that would have worked. Since you are so certain there is an alternative option that would have been better could you please explain it to us?

Scotty #

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

If we are 3 months behind the UK give people a date in September when all legal restrictions will be lifted. It gives hope. You can like the UK of course have caveats.

If we can get to the 250k/week by April (as promised) then we could have the roll out complete by early July IMO. About 3.5 million is our total and we've a good start made on that already.

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

I believe the government adopted increased restrictions as case numbers rose and not on any one 'extreme worst case scenario"

As to the highlighted bit - which people are those?

a poster said earlier that we should be reopening once the 55+ are vaccinated and he was asked by a pro restrictions poster if he was trolling

Scotty #

I want to clear something up...

A poster posted the below yesterday...

CowboyTed wrote: »

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%

I then said...

Scotty # wrote: »

The numbers are correct except for the 18%, that should be 3.09%.

Which means we've gone from 44%, 19%, 15%,10%, to just 3%. Which means we've plateaued more or less. At over 700 cases/week. Very very disappointing.

But in fact after verifying the numbers, the 18% was correct, it was the 783 that was wrong, it should have been 657.

The actual figures are...

Date |7 Day Avg | Diff prev week
02/01/2021|1647|
09/01/2021|6257|-280%
16/01/2021|4150|34%
23/01/2021|2343|44%
30/01/2021|1303|44%
06/02/2021|1035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%


This is very good news and I wonder if the 18% drop last week compared to 11% the week before, could that be early signs of the vaccine starting to effect the numbers?? I don't know of any other reason that the decline would increase rather than decrease. Nothing else has changed in the environment other than people being vaccinated.

If we were to stay at 18% decline week on week, we'd be down to double figures by early May.

C.O.Y.B.I.B

KanyeSouthEast wrote: »

What a bleak summer that is! I’m sorry but honestly no spectators at sports, trapped in the country again, masks for the optics again.

Agreed and sad state of affairs that i consider that hopeful, but I think the majority would accept that as a good stepping stone to having all restrictions lifted . Certainly with where we find ourselves now I think most would be happy enough.