When will it all end?

Responder XY

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Categorising the reaction to covid as people afraid to have adult conversations about death is a fairly significant misunderstanding of the problem.

The reason we've been social distancing for the last year, is to prevent the unnecessary death that would come from hospitals and ICU's being packed out whilst medical staff are forced to take sick absence.

It's a big problem when a cancer patient can't get treated or a person involved in a motorcycle accident can't get a place in ICU. You can throw out platitudes like "that's life", but in 1st world democracies, that's not life. If you are in a car accident, you should be able to get treatment and if you are denied that essential life saving help, societal trust degrades.

There has most certainly a massive amount of immaturity to the general reaction when it comes to having conversations about death and sickness. Most people are interested in the daily death and case numbers. 

Hospitalisation numbers are never the main headline or focus (they should be though.)

You are completely right to say it's not OK that the cancer patient or Road Traffic accident victim may have to do without care if their bed is taken up by a Covid case. But as an argument for lockdowns and restrictions, this made sense 12 months ago. Now we are a year in. I know health care capacity can't be magiced up, but our new normal calls for significantly more capacity and we've done very little to prepare for that.

We've put all our eggs in the vaccine basket. I hope it pays off, and we should give it a chance to work by not coming out of restrictions too fast. But if it doesn't work, the general population should not be made to suffer for any longer due to failure of leadership in this country to put in place the capacity required. 

bucketybuck

gozunda wrote: »

For myself - those who are in the main making claims 'we will be in lockdown forever' or wtte are those who are using that idea to demand we "open up now".

I believe that what they actually want is the government to recognise and properly discuss the concept of "living with covid", instead of basically avoiding the question like they have done to date.

This government has done nothing except hide its head in the sand hoping that covid would go away, it has improved nothing, answered nothing, implemented nothing, a year later and still we have no response to covid other than lock our doors and hide.

People would not be discussing "lockdown forever" if our leaders had shown any inclination to an alternative.

hatrickpatrick

bucketybuck wrote: »

I believe that what they actually want is the government to recognise and properly discuss the concept of "living with covid", instead of basically avoiding the question like they have done to date.

This government has done nothing except hide its head in the sand hoping that covid would go away, it has improved nothing, answered nothing, implemented nothing, a year later and still we have no response to covid other than lock our doors and hide.

People would not be discussing "lockdown forever" if our leaders had shown any inclination to an alternative.

This, exactly. The suggestion of social distancing even after mass vaccination and "well into next year" implies that "living with covid" is somehow synonymous with "never having a proper party or night out again". It implies a willingness on the part of government to take the view that if we can't eradicate the threat from COVID through vaccination or other measures, we can eradicate social outlets, and that this is an acceptable paradigm for those in power. That's what's caused so much fear among young people over the last month - the idea that we have to wait and see if we can reopen social outlets after vaccination implies the possibility that we can't. And for most people, the possibility that we can never socialise without keeping 2m from other people again is something which should not be discussed as a theoretical reality which we might actually implement.

"Society and conversation, therefore, are the most powerful remedies for restoring the mind to its tranquillity, if, at any time, it has unfortunately lost it ; as well as the best preservatives of that equal and happy temper, which is so necessary to self-satisfaction and enjoyment. Men of retirement and speculation, who are apt to sit brooding at home over either grief or resentment, though they may often have more humanity, more generosity, and a nicer sense of honour, yet seldom possess that equality of temper which is so common among men of the world. "
Adam Smith, 1759

Man is a social creature. Isolation drives him nuts. The sooner we can get back to socialising the better.

hatrickpatrick

gozunda wrote: »

It may be somewhat trite but the saying about the darkest hour is before the dawn is more than apt at this time imo.

I fully agree with this. My issue is that the messaging from government and from the kind of extremists RTE tends to entertain has been the opposite of this lately - more along the lines of "dawn is only a possibility, we're willing to accept remaining in darkness indefinitely as an acceptable policy decision if the vaccine doesn't bring the dawn". That's something the vast majority of people simply won't accept. That's what is implied by the idea of maintaining restrictions well into next year even if we have mass vaccination by Autumn - because it implies that if mass vaccination doesn't result in a retreat of the virus, the government is willing to condemn us to this living death in perpetuity, without any other options being put on the table.

jimmycrackcorm

Batattackrat wrote: »

Are people actually fretting about under 18's been vaccinated. Most of them don't even know they have Covid or might have a slight cough or slight fatigue and that's it.

Once the over 70's are all vacinated it's time to go to Level 2 and no reason why the country shouldn't be fully open when everyone over 55 has go the vacinne.

The actual KPI will be around hospital admissions. It's not just over 70's that are affected, they're just the group that is the most susceptible to death as an outcome. But there will need to be a reduction of serious admissions to hospitals, otherwise, that will overwhelm our health system also.

ujjjjjjjjj

The British government has made it clear that British society will have to learn to live with Covid once the lockdown ends and will have to tolerate a level of hospitalisations and deaths.

The Irish government hasn't made that jump yet and that is what the problem is.

This virus once it became clear it was endemic was never going to go away and herd immunity (be that natural or vaccine or both) was always what was going to happen.

If the Chinese borders had been closed last Jan it might have not gone globally endemic but we are so far past that point now it is irrelevant.

The national discourse has to move to a line in the sand policy which clearly tells people that once we reach a certain point in the vaccination program we will fully and entirely open up. There comes a point where you have to say we have done all we can (and this will be that line in the sand vaccine point).

Without this there is no end in sight but one thing everyone has to wake up to is that we simply have to accept that this virus will continue to make some people sick for the foreseeable future but we must get on with life. Failure to accept this is child like fantasy stuff and so incredibly naive.

Time for our health advisors and politicians to grow up and act like adults.

This is an endemic virus just like the flu and common colds are endemic.

gozunda

bucketybuck wrote: »

I believe that what they actually want is the government to recognise and properly discuss the concept of "living with covid", instead of basically avoiding the question like they have done to date.

This government has done nothing except hide its head in the sand hoping that covid would go away, it has improved nothing, answered nothing, implemented nothing, a year later and still we have no response to covid other than lock our doors and hide.

People would not be discussing "lockdown forever" if our leaders had shown any inclination to an alternative.

I'd disagree. Most of those demanding 'open up now' seem to want just that and damn the consequences.

I'm no fan of politicians in general but they present lot are damned if they do and damned if they don't. That said I don't envy them the job of trying to deal with a highly dynamic infection. Currently the priority is getting numbers down (which that seems to be going the right way atm) and getting vaccination numbers up - ditto with known issues of promised supplies not being delivered. So we are where we're at.

Its evident that once the full vaccination schedule is met or as is close to as possible - then we will be much better able to understand what "living with covid" will be like. Until that point we are all obliged to do what we can to cover our arsess to keep infection rates down. I don't envy their job at all trying to keep everyone happy.

C.O.Y.B.I.B

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The actual KPI will be around hospital admissions. It's not just over 70's that are affected, they're just the group that is the most susceptible to death as an outcome. But there will need to be a reduction of serious admissions to hospitals, otherwise, that will overwhelm our health system also.

Surely Level2 by mid June brings us back to where we were that time last year , but with the added bonus of a lot people vaccinated , particularly the "vulnerable". I'd be hopeful that we would have staycations , pubs and restaurants with table service , kids sports activities etc... All operating by mid June as the were last year. However I would expect masks to still be in play , sanitising equipment for sports , no spectators , people spread out in pubs , no large groups etc....

Irish Stones

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This, exactly. The suggestion of social distancing even after mass vaccination and "well into next year" implies that "living with covid" is somehow synonymous with "never having a proper party or night out again". It implies a willingness on the part of government to take the view that if we can't eradicate the threat from COVID through vaccination or other measures, we can eradicate social outlets, and that this is an acceptable paradigm for those in power. That's what's caused so much fear among young people over the last month - the idea that we have to wait and see if we can reopen social outlets after vaccination implies the possibility that we can't. And for most people, the possibility that we can never socialise without keeping 2m from other people again is something which should not be discussed as a theoretical reality which we might actually implement.

I'm one of those who believe the bold part will be the new life we'll live.
I might sound excessive or pessimistic, but it is what I believe, and nothing can make me think differently, no matter how hard they try.
I hope I'm very wrong.

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

I hope I'm very wrong.

Not having a go at you , but you are very wrong as human history has demonstrated in the aftermath of all pandemics no matter how serious they were.
Of course you yourself may never wish to partake fully in society again, still not a go at you.

stefanovich

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

If the Chinese borders had been closed last Jan it might have not gone globally endemic but we are so far past that point now it is irrelevant.

Any suggestion at the time was branded as racist but then Ardern did it and everyone was in awe of their success because she was female. :pac:

gozunda

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I fully agree with this. My issue is that the messaging from government and from the kind of extremists RTE tends to entertain has been the opposite of this lately - more along the lines of "dawn is only a possibility, we're willing to accept remaining in darkness indefinitely as an acceptable policy decision if the vaccine doesn't bring the dawn". That's something the vast majority of people simply won't accept. That's what is implied by the idea of maintaining restrictions well into next year even if we have mass vaccination by Autumn - because it implies that if mass vaccination doesn't result in a retreat of the virus, the government is willing to condemn us to this living death in perpetuity, without any other options being put on the table.

Id certainly agree. And what I've highlighted is the cue. I tend to give most such opinion shows a wide berth. That's as much rabble rousing as claiming we'll never see the light of day again or wtte. And of course no one will accept that- simply because it won't happen. Feeding either of those streams or giving them credence simply allows the politically motivated more credence than they ever deserve.

bucketybuck

stefanovich wrote: »

Any suggestion at the time was branded as racist but then Ardern did it and everyone was in awe of their success because she was female. :pac:

Jacinda Arden closed China's borders? That was some trick.

Tazz T

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

bucketybuck

Tazz T wrote: »

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

Not to mention Biden saying that every adult in America will be vaccinated by the end of May. Thats 328 million people. Then the UK are doing half a million a day at this stage.

We have less than 5 million and are still talking about August and September for some people.

But mention this and all you get is "Supply problems, this stuff is hard". :rolleyes:

Batattackrat

Batattackrat wrote: »

How am I trolling? Once hospital numbers are low and the most vunerable vacinated which is the over 70's there is no reason not to move to Level 2.

In 2017/2018 there were 4000 people in hospital over the year with flu but didn't shut down the country. 191 admitted to ICU over the same year due to flu.

Once the hospitals are stable and the most vunerable protected it's time to open up.

Isn’t it funny how we went into lockdown based on extreme worst case scenario models that showed thousands of deaths. Thousands as in 5 or 6 figure numbers.

Now people seem to think we should stay in lockdown until we have almost 0 cases and 0 in hospital.

It’s going to take years to recover from the fallout of this. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.

Nermal

SheepsClothing wrote: »

It's a big problem when a cancer patient can't get treated or a person involved in a motorcycle accident can't get a place in ICU. You can throw out platitudes like "that's life", but in 1st world democracies, that's not life. If you are in a car accident, you should be able to get treatment and if you are denied that essential life saving help, societal trust degrades.

Obviously, car/motorcycle accidents for whom medical treatment has a high chance of a successful outcome would get priority over marginal COVID patients.

All nations - first world democracies or not - have to make tough decisions on resource allocation, both in ordinary and extraordinary times.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Fair answers, and no I do not.

I do, however, believe that a point will come at which for the sake of not just the economy but the nation's mental health, we will have to make a judgment call on this - and I personally believe that that point is going to arrive before the end of this year. I certainly don't believe that two full years of that kind of lockdown, as has been recently raised as a possibility by Leo and others, should be countenanced at all. I think that's fundamentally where we differ.

...

Fair play. Very honest post.

I think, given he government's track record, that they will most likely reimpose restrictions (not necessarily lockdowns) this winter if they are necessary. There may come a point where they just have to live with high hospitalisations and deaths but i really doubt that will come before the first winter after the vaccination programme begins. Given that children won't be vaccinated before the cold weather, I think they will try to supress spread this coming winter rather than letting it rip through the country when they haven't yet completed the vaccination rollout.

But the one factor that could change the whole calculation is how other countries behave. A group of countries create a "social norm" and one notable exception is Sweden. Sweden doing something different shows how similar the rest of the government's approaches have been. If the rest of Europe throws its hands in the air and drops all restrictions and commits to not reposing them no matter how overrun the hospitals become in winter, then Ireland would likely follow suit. but unless that happens then I think they are likely to reimpose restrictions next winter if they need to.

On the messaging point, I think they have been very careful to craft their statements. They know people will read what they want into them and it's not the most accurate way to relay information. But the truth is that they don't know the answers. And people might say they want the government to be honest and say they don't know, but that has been researched to death and it doesn't play well for government to admit when they don't know - people don't reward them for being honest. They do however reward certainty even when it's a big lie The line form the movie In The Loop comes to mind - the minister was being told the facts for and against his idea and he interrupted as the advisor was getting to the facts against his idea and said, "in the land of truth, the man with one fact is king". The voters would more harshly punish the government for honestly saying "we don't know" than they would a government who makes statements with certainty and then reverses them later on.

Tazz T

bucketybuck wrote: »

Not to mention Biden saying that every adult in America will be vaccinated by the end of May. Thats 328 million people. Then the UK are doing half a million a day at this stage.

We have less than 5 million and are still talking about August and September for some people.

But mention this and all you get is "Supply problems, this stuff is hard". :rolleyes:

Economies of scale, in fairness. Texas are less than 20% vaxxed and numbers seem to be rising even before this. Not exactly cautious. But I am very interested to see what happens. I'd expect to see at least a drawing out of the third wave compared to other states, but more importantly, after that, we'll know if the US is coming out of this the third wave is the last one, and if the same is likely here (although I wouldn't be recommending the Texan 'gung-ho' strategy).

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Isn’t it funny how we went into lockdown based on extreme worst case scenario models that showed thousands of deaths. Thousands as in 5 or 6 figure numbers.

Now people seem to think we should stay in lockdown until we have almost 0 cases and 0 in hospital.

It’s going to take years to recover from the fallout of this. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.

I believe the government adopted increased restrictions as case numbers rose and not on any one 'extreme worst case scenario"

As to the highlighted bit - which people are those?

KanyeSouthEast

C.O.Y.B.I.B wrote: »

Surely Level2 by mid June brings us back to where we were that time last year , but with the added bonus of a lot people vaccinated , particularly the "vulnerable". I'd be hopeful that we would have staycations , pubs and restaurants with table service , kids sports activities etc... All operating by mid June as the were last year. However I would expect masks to still be in play , sanitising equipment for sports , no spectators , people spread out in pubs , no large groups etc....

What a bleak summer that is! I’m sorry but honestly no spectators at sports, trapped in the country again, masks for the optics again.

Mr. Karate

Tazz T wrote: »

Be interesting to see the effect on the infection rate in both Texas and now Mississippi over the next two weeks. As of today everything it to open - nightclubs, gigs, festivals are all go - without a mask in sight.

Florida has been open since August of last year and people didn't start dropping like flies. The Streets certainly aren't filled with mounds of dead bodies or whatever nonsense the fear mongers in the media like to paint. I doubt Texas or Mississippi will have any problems.

Tazz T

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Florida has been open since August of last year and people didn't start dropping like flies. The Streets certainly aren't filled with mounds of dead bodies or whatever nonsense the fear mongers in the media like to paint. I doubt Texas or Mississippi will have any problems.

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

Tazz T

Tazz T wrote: »

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

Actually I see they do have social distancing and masks guidelines in place and are cracking down on spring breakers gatherings today. But I note that bars and restaurants are open.

Irish Stones

Tazz T wrote: »

Florida has no restrictions whatsoever?

I have friends in Florida which told me they are free to move quite freely, they can go shopping or to restaurants, or walking. Face masks are required in closed spaces, but it seems they are living better than we are.

Tazz T

It think quite a bit of the US is like that. I have friends in Ohio that said there were restrictions but everyone ignored them until they were lifted.

At the other end of the spectrum here are we....

gozunda

Irish Stones wrote: »

I have friends in Florida which told me they are free to move quite freely, they can go shopping or to restaurants, or walking. Face masks are required in closed spaces, but it seems they are living better than we are.

With its high percentage of elderly people and retirees - I don't think Florida has had a particularly easy time of it tbh. This from the middle of February.

10,000 residents, staff of nursing homes dead from COVID Since the pandemic began,

the far more populous county had recorded the most COVID-19 deaths at its long-term care facilities.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2021/02/12/10-000-residents-staff-florida-nursing-homes-dead-covid/6738545002/

Flags lowered in remembrance of Florida Covid deaths

The Florida Department of Health reported Tuesday that 31,135 Floridians have died from COVID-related illnesses. An additional 561 non-residents have died in the state. To date, there have been 1,918,100 documented COVID-19 cases in Florida.

https://news.wjct.org/post/flags-be-lowered-wednesday-remembrance-florida-covid-deaths

drunkmonkey

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Are you trolling? No way will this happen nor should it.

Of course it will, Ciara Kelly has called it already..watch the media change tune soon..

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1365238174809735169?s=20

Plumbthedepths

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Of course it will, Ciara Kelly has called it already..watch the media change tune soon..

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1365238174809735169?s=20

Ah people shouldn't worry RTE will keep up the scaremongering with the ISAG scripted pieces that Claire Byrne is so fond of.