When will it all end?

BringBackMick

BringBackMick wrote: »

In the bulk of Europe? 31 May.

In Ireland? 9 August

Haven’t seen all this thread where’s 9 August coming from?

tommybrees

Strumms wrote: »

Florida isn’t doing brilliantly.

It’s the third most populous state in the US, it has had the third highest numbers of COVID.

It is the eighth most densely populated state yet third in covid numbers.

Nothing to be shouting from the rooftops at there..

My aunt lives there, 84 years of age, in great health, still driving etc... but annoyed at how ****e people have been... many in her own apartment block.. she was lobbying the management company to close the outdoor pool and decking which only happened in May when the weather got great and the management company finally listened to her and other concerned residents... loads of gimps from different apartments, inviting friends and family over from different households to hang out and have drinks on the large patio beside the pool...:o

Did all these people die of covid or end up in A&E

El_Duderino 09

Scotty # wrote: »

If we can get to the 250k/week by April (as promised) then we could have the roll out complete by early July IMO. About 3.5 million is our total and we've a good start made on that already.

The HSE has a weekly dashboard of vaccinations here. Updated daily.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-vaccination-programme-dashboard.html

In the last 7 days Ireland had over 80,000 vaccinations. That was short of the target of 100,000 but still a good chunk of people. They were let down in supply of 25,000 between last week and this week, but the supplier said they’d make it up later in the month.

They will need to pick up the pace of supply of they’re going o reach 250,000 per week.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

While Florida may not have many restrictions at state level, most individual counties within it do.

Florida's numbers are nothing to aspire to!

At least in Florida they didnt have that ridiculous 5km rule. Could travel anywhere in the state and even into other states

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

They will need to pick up the pace of supply of they’re going o reach 250,000 per week.

How can we need 80% of people to have the vaccine when we're probably at 50% immunity right now as a result of acquired and natural immunity.
If we can get another 1 million vaccinated i'd say it's over, 4 million vaccinated isn't necessary to crush the numbers.

El_Duderino 09

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How can we need 80% of people to have the vaccine when we're probably at 50% immunity right now as a result of acquired and natural immunity.
If we can get another 1 million vaccinated i'd say it's over, 4 million vaccinated isn't necessary to crush the numbers.

If that’s the case then there’s no need to worry about the winter as there won’t be any kind of troublesome spike In hospitalisation and death. We’ll just have to wait and see. If those numbers you made up are accurate.

Scotty #

drunkmonkey wrote: »

we're probably at 50% immunity right now as a result of acquired and natural immunity.

I'm not sure acquired immunity lasts that long. I read a report months ago that said asymptomatic people had lost their antibodies after 25 days or so. Symptomatic people a little longer and critically ill but recovered still had them 6 months later.

My neighbour, a nursing home nurse, tested positive last May and again there at Christmas. Asymptomatic both times but the vaccine had her off work sick for a week.

Samsonsmasher

As I said in a previous post that as the good weather comes upon us the lockdown will fall asunder.

We haven't seen the end of protests. It is clear there will be more and they will be bolder. More business people will also open up individually or collectively while St. Patrick's Day may we see organized parades around the country in defiance of the restrictions.

Kids in schools are simply not obeying social distancing or mask wearing and they congregate with parents at school gates or pal around together on the streets or to the shops on their breaks. Everyone knows it's a total joke.

It is clear that more and more people are openly breaking the 5km rule. Over the next few months beaches and beauty spots will be packed once again with kids young adults and families as they were last year. I wouldn't be surprised if gaelic games or concerts go ahead in defiance of the rules as numbers and deaths plummet due to the end of the winter season.

As time goes buy the pressure to go back to normal will irresistible

Mr. Karate

Who will blink first? The Govt or UEFA?

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/sport/american-football/uefa-set-7-april-deadline-as-doubts-grow-over-dublin-s-ability-to-host-euro-2020-games/ar-BB1ed8Qu?ocid=msedgntp

E mac

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

As I said in a previous post that as the good weather comes upon us the lockdown will fall asunder.

We haven't seen the end of protests. It is clear there will be more and they will be bolder. More business people will also open up individually or collectively while St. Patrick's Day may we see organized parades around the country in defiance of the restrictions.

Kids in schools are simply not obeying social distancing or mask wearing and they congregate with parents at school gates or pal around together on the streets or to the shops on their breaks. Everyone knows it's a total joke.

It is clear that more and more people are openly breaking the 5km rule. Over the next few months beaches and beauty spots will be packed once again with kids young adults and families as they were last year. I wouldn't be surprised if gaelic games or concerts go ahead in defiance of the rules as numbers and deaths plummet due to the end of the winter season.

As time goes buy the pressure to go back to normal will irresistible

I agree with what your saying regarding the good weather ...but this is Ireland so ya good weather...Government will be hoping for a wash out of a summer,if it’s anything like 2018 every beach will be packed out.

MOR316

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Who will blink first? NPHET or UEFA?

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/sport/american-football/uefa-set-7-april-deadline-as-doubts-grow-over-dublin-s-ability-to-host-euro-2020-games/ar-BB1ed8Qu?ocid=msedgntp

Fixed

Also, UEFA won't be arsed holding games here.

drunkmonkey

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not sure acquired immunity lasts that long. I read a report months ago that said asymptomatic people had lost their antibodies after 25 days or so. Symptomatic people a little longer and critically ill but recovered still had them 6 months later.

My neighbour, a nursing home nurse, tested positive last May and again there at Christmas. Asymptomatic both times but the vaccine had her off work sick for a week.

We're still in the dark ages when it comes to fully understanding immunity, a lot of people scratching their heads with cases like you've mentioned.
I've spoken to someone working in a nursing home and she mentioned a lot of her friends were sick after it as well.
Could she possibly had different strains in May and December, she must have natural immunity if it's not affecting her.

Mr. Karate

MOR316 wrote: »

Fixed

Also, UEFA won't be arsed holding games here.

You're right that UEFA won't miss a beat if the Govt/NPHET decide they don't want to play ball and open up.

ujjjjjjjjj

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed! The EU don’t seem to be handling things too well at the moment. The problem for us remains, not where can we get into, but can we even get out?

Belfast.......

Dickie10

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah people shouldn't worry RTE will keep up the scaremongering with the ISAG scripted pieces that Claire Byrne is so fond of.

what we really need now is Oliver Callen to don the green jersey and absolutely tear into RTE and crazy gang, McConkey, Big Tony, Claire Byrne and George Lee with send ups! by God could you imagine te grimace on them

Kunta Kinte

Risteard81 wrote: »

There's no such thing as "Northern Irish".

Are you still peddling this "no such country as Northern Ireland" rubbish? FFS. :rolleyes: This is getting tiresome now.:(

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not sure acquired immunity lasts that long. I read a report months ago that said asymptomatic people had lost their antibodies after 25 days or so. Symptomatic people a little longer and critically ill but recovered still had them 6 months later.

My neighbour, a nursing home nurse, tested positive last May and again there at Christmas. Asymptomatic both times but the vaccine had her off work sick for a week.

Every study I've read has said that SARS-CoV-2 immunity lasts at least 8 months (as tested ~8 months after infection) and potentially as long as SARS-CoV-1 immunity (which is very long term, in some cases 17 years and counting). "Asymptomatic reinfection" has been largely put down to the notoriously inaccurate PCR testing at high cycle thresholds. IIRC Ireland was using a CT of 40-45 for a long time, then switched to the current policy where 30 and 35 are considered high and very high respectively, and guidance exists on whether or not positive results at those levels should be reported as a case.

What's the source for your doubt of longer-term immunity?

For example, were the asymptomatic people who had "lost antibodies" after 25 days given an antibody test at the time of diagnosis and then an antibody test 25 days later? Or were they given a PCR test and then an antibody test 25 days later? If the latter, it could have been an inaccurate PCR test, making the negative antibody test meaningless.

CowboyTed

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I don’t understand what I’m seeing here. How is 783 an 18% reduction on 808? Isn’t it more like a 3% reduction on the previous week?

i am comparing to 7 days previous....

To even out the highs and lows of a week...

Sorry about the confusion..

patnor1011

timmyntc wrote: »

Well yeah of course, summer should have lowest spread due to good weather and people socialising outdoors, (pretty much the best ventilated environment we have).

Its expected that as weather cools, people socialise indoors more and viruses spread more. Its aa moot point though - by that stage vaccinations should stop 90% of at risk population from needing hospitalisation should they get the virus. As vaccinations pick up, case numbers become less and less of a relevant metric.

What is amazing is how easily we went from "its only till vaccine come" and "vaccine save us from this virus" to "vaccine may stop hospitalization when infected".

Goal posts keep shifting and waiting for "something" seems to be with no end in sight. Now it is "we need to have at least 80% vaccinated" despite most of the posters dismissing herd immunity not so long ago till it change let us say "we keep it up, shut up and put up - because mutations".

El_Duderino 09

patnor1011 wrote: »

What is amazing is how easily we went from "its only till vaccine come" and "vaccine save us from this virus" to "vaccine may stop hospitalization when infected".

Goal posts keep shifting and waiting for "something" seems to be with no end in sight. Now it is "we need to have at least 80% vaccinated" despite most of the posters dismissing herd immunity not so long ago till it change let us say "we keep it up, shut up and put up - because mutations".

It depends on what news sources you were using for the last year and whether you retained the parts you didn’t want to hear.

Tabloids didn’t go into much detail on how it would work in practice. They just told you that we would develop a vaccine and go back to normal. Good news sources discussed the details of vaccine testing, approval, supply, administration and of course efficacy for preventing mild and severe illness and hospitalisation and death.

If you used good news sources then the goalposts didn’t shift at all. If you used tabloids or Facebook or just chatting with people to get your news, then you might think the goalposts have shifted. That’s hardly anyone else’s fault though, is it?

bucketybuck

Dickie10 wrote: »

what we really need now is Oliver Callen to don the green jersey and absolutely tear into RTE and crazy gang, McConkey, Big Tony, Claire Byrne and George Lee with send ups! by God could you imagine te grimace on them

Happened to catch a bit of the UK media last night and it was noticeable the difference in tone from the likes of RTE. The UK is miles ahead of Ireland in terms of vaccine roll out and future planning but still I saw multiple instances of the media asking hard questions and criticising their government even further.

I've no time for Stephen Nolan but I caught the teaser for his show which basically amounted to him shouting clearly "Are they doing enough, and when are we getting out of lockdown".

Such things are needed to keep governments at least semi-honest, but in Ireland they suckle at the teat of NPHET and don't dare ask such questions.

ujjjjjjjjj

bucketybuck wrote: »

Happened to catch a bit of the UK media last night and it was noticeable the difference in tone from the likes of RTE. The UK is miles ahead of Ireland in terms of vaccine roll out and future planning but still I saw multiple instances of the media asking hard questions and criticising their government even further.

I've no time for Stephen Nolan but I caught the teaser for his show which basically amounted to him shouting clearly "Are they doing enough, and when are we getting out of lockdown".

Such things are needed to keep governments at least semi-honest, but in Ireland they suckle at the teat of NPHET and don't dare ask such questions.

Mainstream media in Ireland especially the broadcast media operate in a simple fashion......get government politician on, pretend to ask some slightly awkward questions but never push them too hard and then allow them to sing from their soapbox. If journalist pushes too far that particular journalist / show is blackmarked by said politicians/ party and they never get any interviews again. Journalists learn to be government lackies.....

RTE is the worst offender, Newstalk not far behind. They know what they need to do to keep getting interviews with Paschal and his ilk.

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Mainstream media in Ireland especially the broadcast media operate in a simple fashion......get government politician on, pretend to ask some slightly awkward questions but never push them too hard and then allow them to sing from their soapbox. If journalist pushes too far that particular journalist / show is blackmarked by said politicians/ party and they never get any interviews again. Journalists learn to be government lackies.....

RTE is the worst offender, Newstalk not far behind. They know what they need to do to keep getting interviews with Paschal and his ilk.

Does rte go into much detail on the nuances of what’s actually going on and what to expect in the future?

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It depends on what news sources you were using for the last year and whether you retained the parts you didn’t want to hear.

Tabloids didn’t go into much detail on how it would work in practice. They just told you that we would develop a vaccine and go back to normal. Good news sources discussed the details of vaccine testing, approval, supply, administration and of course efficacy for preventing mild and severe illness and hospitalisation and death.

If you used good news sources then the goalposts didn’t shift at all. If you used tabloids or Facebook or just chatting with people to get your news, then you might think the goalposts have shifted. That’s hardly anyone else’s fault though, is it?

Don't think anyone didn't realise that the vaccine roleout was going to take some time. However I think what this poster is broadly referring to is the failure to define an end point. We know the vaccines are effective and especially when you look at the way they reduce hospitalisation and death so what we need is a line in the sand defined by government.

So for example open up once all the over 50's have been vaccinated as O'Leary suggested or be utterly health and safety mad and wait till all the over 18' s are vaccinated....whatever that line is it is but we need the line and vague plans and chats about possible problems next winter etc etc just have people thinking this will never end.

Once we get to this point we have done our best and we have to grow up, recognise that this is an endemic virus, it isn't going away and that we will still have some hospitalisation and death after this point but we have to accept this and get on with life.

You must remember all the people making these lockdown decisions are financially secure and are actually raising their profile and professional credentials so they literally have no idea at all what many people now a year into debt or running g through savings or borrowing money from family etc etc are going through.

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Does rte go into much detail on the nuances of what’s actually going on and what to expect in the future?

No they just toe the broad government line.......and feed us whatever keeps them in moderately good favour with the government. They have a remarkable collection of lackies who fully understand that if you toe the line you can stay buried in a good job in RTE for years. They are not journalists, they are civil servants.

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Don't think anyone didn't realise that the vaccine roleout was going to take some time. However I think what this poster is broadly referring to is the failure to define an end point. We know the vaccines are effective and especially when you look at the way they reduce hospitalisation and death so what we need is a line in the sand defined by government.

So for example open up once all the over 50's have been vaccinated as O'Leary suggested or be utterly health and safety mad and wait till all the over 18' s are vaccinated....whatever that line is it is but we need the line and vague plans and chats about possible problems next winter etc etc just have people thinking this will never end.

Once we get to this point we have done our best and we have to grow up, recognise that this is an endemic virus, it isn't going away and that we will still have some hospitalisation and death after this point but we have to accept this and get on with life.

You must remember all the people making these lockdown decisions are financially secure and are actually raising their profile and professional credentials so they literally have no idea at all what many people now a year into debt or running g through savings or borrowing money from family etc etc are going through.

I think lots of people didn’t consider how long the vaccine would take to test, produce and administer. I think lots of people presumed we’d be out of this whole situation by now.

What makes you think there is a definite end point at this stage? Do you think they know the end point and they just aren’t telling you? Or do you think they just have to wait and see wha happens in the next few months?

That talk about next winter isn’t vague or veiled. It’s been talked about clearly for ages. The information we have is that the virus is seasonal and we’ll have to see what happens next winter when lots of the population are vaccinated and we go through a winter without lots of restrictions like this year. It’s not vague talk, it’s clear talk about uncertainties.

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

No they just toe the broad government line.......and feed us whatever keeps them in moderately good favour with the government. They have a remarkable collection of lackies who fully understand that if you toe the line you can stay buried in a good job in RTE for years. They are not journalists, they are civil servants.

Then why would you watch it?

Sobit1964

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Then why would you watch it?

Awfully glib response. Perhaps he watches it in disgust due to the fact he is forced to pay for it.

ujjjjjjjjj

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Awfully glib response. Perhaps he watches it in disgust due to the fact he is forced to pay for it.

Was ignoring the reply as it was glib (being polite). You are right, we all pay a tax which we have to pay called the TV licence which largely goes to fund RTE (yes OK you can opt not to have a TV..so please avoid that post) so I think we have a right to comment on RTE.

If it was a subscription service fine but it isn't.

El_Duderino 09

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Awfully glib response. Perhaps he watches it in disgust due to the fact he is forced to pay for it.

Maybe so but if you don’t feel like your being informed by the media that’s most in your face, the it’s nobody’s responsibility but your own, to find better media.

I also think that lots of people are surprised that the pandemic is going on longer than they expected because they dismissed news they didn’t want to hear as “doom and gloom”. The fact the people are surprised by the questions emerging now around aspects of vaccine efficacy (mild illness, severe illness, hospitalisation and death) is evidence that they haven’t grasped the no alliances of the subject. Whether they were never told about them because they used poor news, or were told about those things and dismissed them, I don’t know.