When will it all end?

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Hysterical views I'm only repeating what NPHET have already warned about, restrictions are on the cards for next winter.
I'm not sure you noticed but the Government are not in control of the country, NPHET are and they have said they're not concerned with the economic effects of the guidelines as it's beyond their remit.

If you think Micheál Martin is the man to lead us successful out of this mess i've bad news for you.

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

I'd share your sentiment that people won't put up with it once the numbers decrease, little choice but to open up.

Restrictions though, MM won't go against NPHET if they demand coppers doesn't reopen this year, the scary variants remember. Also the flu are we going to let it back after eradication. Some serious battles ahead between public health and government.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

Micky 32, do you think most people, who are fully behind everything that is going on, and have been for a year, would go against NPHET next winter if they said social distancing was required? A minority would, but not a majority.

And even if a majority was against it how would they express that opposition when there's no opposition in the country, in the media or in government?

And I don't think protesting would work because Irish people don't really do protests or protesting. They are disapproved of in wider society.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

What restrictions? My guess is advice on a bit of mask wearing in certain conditions and hygeine advice etc etc. Shops etc will not be closed down again post vaccination.

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other? If hospitalisations and deaths from covid 19 plummet due to vaccination lets see how many people will be compliant.

Life will finds it’s way and bounce back.

They said they can't rule out restrictions next winter depending on how things go. Leo said he saw restrictions being needed next winter but it wasn't any kind of guarantee either way. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to hospitalisations and deaths next winter after the vaccine has been rolled out.

Could I see people social distancing in winter? If there's no problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can't see many people social distancing. If there is a big problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can see many people social distancing and restrictions being needed to slow the spread. You can suggest that people will refuse to do it, but you could say the same thing about people adhering to the rules right now. Right now we have restrictions which were brought in because they were necessary and people, by and large, adhere to the rules. We will always have some people who will flout the rules but that's to be expected.

the kelt

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That is interesting anecdotal evidence for an increase (no number included). And I would be inclined to take it seriously because of the gravity of the whole issue of suicide even though it's not any kind of conclusive evidence.

The post quoted below got 19 Thanks for criticising the coroner, RTE and NPHET for publicising the coroner's preliminary findings, but we're taking the anecdotal evidence of a doctor who has seen an unspecified increase in suicide in their area.

We're not treating claims according to the evidence, that much is for sure.

Unfortunately the process involved in dealing with suicide deaths can be quite a lengthy one made longer by COVID (take it from experience), we are unlikely to have a full picture as to the situation in 2020 until later on this year.

But you're right, it is something to be taken seriously but we wont have any conclusive evidence until later on this year.

Its an uncomfortable conversation in all honesty.

drunkmonkey

We have a problem in the hospitals every year that's the issue, what's the vaccine do, prevent 90% of serious hospitalisations, that' still means Covid will be spreading and will get into nursing homes and hospitals where we know it spreads like wildfire.

Tazz T

Irish Stones wrote: »

Then, in October, we'll have the ICU's packed. Guaranteed.

Didn't happen last year, why would it happen this year?

Incidentally Greece had 100s of 1000s coming in all summer and didn't see a rise in infections until after the season had ended.

You can see their data here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We have a problem in the hospitals every year that's the issue, what's the vaccine do, prevent 90% of serious hospitalisations, that' still means Covid will be spreading and will get into nursing homes and hospitals where we know it spreads like wildfire.

Yes, and the obsession with case numbers isn't going to go away. RTÉ aren't suddenly going to decide that they no longer matter.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

They said they can't rule out restrictions next winter depending on how things go. Leo said he saw restrictions being needed next winter but it wasn't any kind of guarantee either way. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to hospitalisations and deaths next winter after the vaccine has been rolled out.

Could I see people social distancing in winter? If there's no problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can't see many people social distancing. If there is a big problem with hospitalisations and deaths then I can see many people social distancing and restrictions being needed to slow the spread. You can suggest that people will refuse to do it, but you could say the same thing about people adhering to the rules right now. Right now we have restrictions which were brought in because they were necessary and people, by and large, adhere to the rules. We will always have some people who will flout the rules but that's to be expected.

I’m fairly confident restrictions will be gone by next winter, no argument really. The thread is going around in circles with large posts of endless waffling.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m fairly confident restrictions will be gone by next winter, no argument really.

I hope you're right, but I just don't see any evidence of them being lifted. The fact that there's no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan is extremely worrying.

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope you're right, but I just don't see any evidence of them being lifted. The fact that there's no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan is extremely worrying.

There’s lots of evidence. Research the effectivenes of the vaccines. The news gets better everyday. HCW that were vaccinated are no longer getting sick, RTE had a headline about it yesterday.

Chawosfski

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'd share your sentiment that people won't put up with it once the numbers decrease, little choice but to open up.

Restrictions though, MM won't go against NPHET if they demand coppers doesn't reopen this year, the scary variants remember. Also the flu are we going to let it back after eradication. Some serious battles ahead between public health and government.

They'd need to disband Nphet by that stage

Klonker

So we know nothing is going to change in terms of restrictions until early April at earliest. What kinds of numbers do we need at that stage do people think in terms of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and vaccines to see any decent dropping of restrictions? Personally, I think they'll open construction from then and click and collect which many would argue neither of which should have been stopped at all. I think they'll increase the 5km to 10km as a token gesture to try keep people onside.

Personally, Id ike to see household visits allowed at country wide but even county wide be a good step.
I would go for household visits before opening non essential shops and my logic is this. Its a lot easier police keeping shops closed than stopping people visiting other households. A lot of people are already visiting other households so it won't have as big an effect as people might think. Everytime shops opened so far (last summer and early December), I've heard a lot of people complain that hundreds of people can swarm on top of each other in Penneys and I can't visit my family so at that stage just ignore the no households rule anyway.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s lots of evidence. Research the effectivenes of the vaccines. The news gets better everyday. HCW that were vaccinated are no longer getting sick, RTE had a headline about it yesterday.

The vaccines are extremely effective, I agree. But there's no evidence that the restrictions will be fully lifted. Maybe it was inaccurate to say 'won't be lifted'. The fact that there's no level 0 in that plan points to them never being fully lifted. As well as the talk of 'some normality' or 'a semblance of normality'. I don't know why people are willing to accept 'a semblance of normality'.

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s lots of evidence. Research the effectivenes of the vaccines. The news gets better everyday. HCW that were vaccinated are no longer getting sick, RTE had a headline about it yesterday.

Not against the new variants, hence they're working on boosters, my reading of it is the people getting vaccinated now will need top ups in the next few months. 3 shots of pfizer probably needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSFXmTWcbAI

VonLuck

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It's very difficult to get any figures for Ireland at the moment as they usually realeased once a year but it was stopped last Summer.
A study from Japan carried by the BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55837160

I'm not sure how statistically relevant that is. Male suicides in Japan haven't increased and overall suicides are comparable with 2018's figures.

Is there an expectation that suicide figures should continually reduce towards zero? I know that's what every country should strive for, but I imagine that there is an eventual baseline where it is very difficult to get below those figures.

Charles Babbage

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m fairly confident restrictions will be gone by next winter, no argument really. The thread is going around in circles with large posts of endless waffling.

It depends what you mean by a restriction. You may need a vaccine cert to travel or be allowed visit an old people's home. They may well still require businesses to have sanitiser available. You may well be told to stay at home if you are sick. You may be actually tested for what you have if you are sick.

But this kind of thing is reasonable and won't much impact life.

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Not against the new variants, hence they're working on boosters, my reading of it is the people getting vaccinated now will need top ups in the next few months. 3 shots of pfizer probably needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSFXmTWcbAI

Oh the variants ( cue the x files music) the vaccines work against all variants preventing hospitalization and deaths. No harm being cautious by improving vaccines. It’s like everything else really.

From my reading and research this virus can’t mutate much more or it will become unstable and lose functionality so the vaccines will stay ahead of this.

Micky 32

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It depends what you mean by a restriction. You may need a vaccine cert to travel or be allowed visit an old people's home. They may well still require businesses to have sanitiser available. You may well be told to stay at home if you are sick. You may be actually tested for what you have if you are sick.

But this kind of thing is reasonable and won't much impact life.

I have no problem with certs for travelling etc if it means i can travel again. I’ll be taking the jab so it’s not a problem.

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

The vaccines are extremely effective, I agree. But there's no evidence that the restrictions will be fully lifted. Maybe it was inaccurate to say 'won't be lifted'. The fact that there's no level 0 in that plan points to them never being fully lifted. As well as the talk of 'some normality' or 'a semblance of normality'. I don't know why people are willing to accept 'a semblance of normality'.

There’s no evidence to suggest that they won’t be lifted either. I do have to laugh at people who think nephet are controlling the government. It only seems that way. There’s a good reason we went into lockdown. Do you think 2000 people in hospital and 200 plus people in icu’s and rising was sustainable? We would have been in lockdown if nephet didn’t exist.


Come end of the year with hardly anyone getting sick or hospitalised and if nephet come winter keep saying stay in lockdown do you honestly think Varadkar and MM will keep everywhere shut?

seansouth36

HansKroenke wrote: »

You were doing so well until your mental health nonsense was posted.

Under the age of 45, the death rate per 100k of the population is three times higher for suicides than covid. To dismiss mental health makes you seem kinda scummy.

You can't claim to care about public health when it suits your needs (mental health serious - open up now) but ignore public health when it doesn't (lockdowns are bad, open up now). I hate lockdowns and can't wait until things get back to normal, but I won't pretend that they don't work. And again, Covid is contagious; suicides, car crashes, cancer, is not. Exponential growth is a real thing - if we just "open up", guess what happens? The cases shoot up, the health service is overwhelmed and that effects everyone. Too many posters engaging in magical thinking here.

seansouth36

Deleted User wrote: »

The vaccines are extremely effective, I agree. But there's no evidence that the restrictions will be fully lifted. Maybe it was inaccurate to say 'won't be lifted'. The fact that there's no level 0 in that plan points to them never being fully lifted. As well as the talk of 'some normality' or 'a semblance of normality'. I don't know why people are willing to accept 'a semblance of normality'.

You also thought that no other countries kept their citizens within 5km from their homes. Of course the restrictions will be fully lifted at some stage. There has never been a pandemic in history after which restrictions weren't lifted.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I hope you're right, but I just don't see any evidence of them being lifted. The fact that there's no level 0 in the "living with covid" plan is extremely worrying.

Its not worrying at all. The restrictions are for dealing with the actual pandemic. Once infection rates don't result in significant case numbers and / or are well below normal ICU capacity - then there's no need for any plan '0' or otherwise.

Possibly if there's a resurgence at some point then may be revisted. Put at this stage that's in the realms of speculation.

Its like its some big conspiracy or something. And despite that been pushed continuously -thats remains firmly Tinfoil hat territory tbh

Kunta Kinte

Chawosfski wrote: »

They'd need to disband Nphet by that stage

A greater chance of Elvis being found alive and well than of that happening. NPHET will be here for a long time to come.

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

I never said anything about June/July. The vaccine roll out will gather pace in the next month or so, we’ll be in a better place by October and there won’t be packed ICU’s in October full stop. That’s 8 months ahead. A lot is going to happen between now and then regarding vaccines.

Yes, you are right, you never mentioned June/july, but you implicitly gave a time frame when you said that no ICU's will be packed in October, that is that most of people will receive the vaccine at least a couple of months before that.
There's this thing that the vaccine supply and roll out will ramp up, eventually. This was being said in January as well, but about two months later we're still waiting them to ramp up, so probably we should face the fact that they won't, at least not this year.

Plumbthedepths

I hope people realise that Nphet only exists at the discretion of the M of H. Once the crisis is deemed over they will be disbanded.

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

Yes, you are right, you never mentioned June/july, but you implicitly gave a time frame when you said that no ICU's will be packed in October, .

Yep, and i’ll say it again and stand by it. ICU’s won’t be packed with Covid 19 in October.

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

Yes, you are right, you never mentioned June/july, but you implicitly gave a time frame when you said that no ICU's will be packed in October, that is that most of people will receive the vaccine at least a couple of months before that.
There's this thing that the vaccine supply and roll out will ramp up, eventually. This was being said in January as well, but about two months later we're still waiting them to ramp up, so probably we should face the fact that they won't, at least not this year.

There is two more vaccines currently under evaluation by the EMA one is certain to be approved.Your pessimism tbh is misplaced .

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

The vaccines work. Do you honestly think by the end of the year people will social distance from each other?

I think they will, because though you are sure everybody will be vaccinated, and I could agree it could even happen, people will retain a good amount of suspicion and caution towards who's next to them, because for two years we've been taught to act this way, and we won't forget this bit of advice overnight. I'm pretty sure most people will prefer to stay three steps back from the others. Just in case. Who knows, the other person next to you might be carrier of a new virus not yet discovered.

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

I think they will, because though you are sure everybody will be vaccinated, and I could agree it could even happen, people will retain a good amount of suspicion and caution towards who's next to them

Human instinct and the desire for social interaction by the majority contradicts you. There will be a few who will still jump back everytime someone is less than 1000mm away but they will most certainly be in the minority.