When will it all end?

Gradius

seansouth36 wrote: »

Fixed it for you. If you are going to pull ideas out of your ass, please don't pretend there is anything educated about them.

Is this the part where I say "I know what I'm talking about", then you ask "prove it", then I say "no, I'm not going to lose my anonymity to teach some randomer a lesson" and then you realise that your comment is completely pointless?

Yeah, it's that part all right.

I correctly, almost down to specific months, predicted the way this was idiocy was going to unfold more than 9 months ago.

I'll see the likes of you unbelievers in another 9 months then.

Gradius

Micky 32 wrote: »

This moronic post only is worthy of one reply and it’s “ LOL”

BTW so far the vaccines have exceeded expectations.

See you in 9 months then.

ypres5

Scotty # wrote: »

People are either part of the problem or part of the solution. We know where you stand.

and that sentence didn't sound one bit sinister at all....

Gradius

Coybig_ wrote: »

Where did you get your education? You might want to ask them for a refund.

See you in 9 months then.

AdamD

Gradius wrote: »

Educated guesses...

The vaccines won't be as effective as thought by the general population, especially with the continued emergence of variants that render them less and less effective.

New and discovered side effects will continue to emerge (such as suspected still-birth pregnancy, loss of taste and so on) and more than likely an increase in morbidity of the disease.

Expect continued significant outbreaks related to international travel long after the initial vaccines have been administered.

Therefore, expect continued mini lockdowns and restrictions ad infinitum, mask wearing to essentially become standard.

Economic effects are disastrous but basically unavoidable, expect the sharp end of that really soon.

We need some very serious lateral thinking on this problem, it's not going away this year or next. That's minimum. The time is well past to start planning FOR this thing and time to forget planning AROUND it. Meet it head on, deal with it.

All real-world studies have shown the vaccines to be even more effective than we thought.

Gradius

AdamD wrote: »

All real-world studies have shown the vaccines to be even more effective than we thought.

We'll see where we are in 9 months. Easy to quote myself then.

drunkmonkey

AdamD wrote: »

All real-world studies have shown the vaccines to be even more effective than we thought.

Have a look at the UAE's numbers, it's getting worse not better by the looks of it and they're top of the vaccine league.

Micky 32

Gradius wrote: »

We'll see where we are in 9 months. Easy to quote myself then.

Thankfully you’ll be irrelevent in 9 months.

Gradius

Micky 32 wrote: »

Thankfully you’ll be irrelevent in 9 months.

What does that even mean? :P

So you're confident that we'll all be laughing and back to normality by Christmas, I like the confidence, that's the spirit!

Irish Stones

seansouth36 wrote: »

I am not sure why I have to explain this to you, but the reason people don't remember SARs for example, is because there were no SARs restrictions here. That's because there were only a little over 8,000 cases worldwide. So obviously no restrictions were in place here, why would there be?

OK, let's cross SARS and MERS out, maybe even Swine Flu.
Asian and Hong Kong Flus still remain, and there weren't visible and memorable restrictions during them.

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

OK, let's cross SARS and MERS out, maybe even Swine Flu.
Asian and Hong Kong Flus still remain, and there weren't visible and memorable restrictions during them.

I don't think there were any restrictions. Not a single one.

Irish Stones

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think there were any restrictions. Not a single one.

There weren't any, yet people kept living their lives, not a business broke to financial losses.
I am open to any explanation, maybe I'm missing something.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I hope you're right, but I think it would put a lot of people's mind at ease if there was a level 0 in that plan. In a country with no opposition it's especially important that there be a level 0 since we can't rely on it being called for or pushed for.

Its nothing strange tbh. The UK haven't detailed a level 0 neither has Germany etc - purely for the reason Level = 0 means a return to normal operating conditions. Does that mean Covid will be 100% eliminated? Probably not - but it will most likely drop into the background for most of the year and vaccines will ensure that those who need to be most protected from the disease on a yearly basis will be.

Micky 32

Gradius wrote: »

What does that even mean? :P

So you're confident that we'll all be laughing and back to normality by Christmas, I like the confidence, that's the spirit!

We certainly know that the misery merchants will still be locked up at xmas and afraid to stick their heads outside the door

VG31

Scotty # wrote: »

People are either part of the problem or part of the solution. We know where you stand.

"You are either with us or you are with the terrorists" :rolleyes:

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Its nothing strange tbh. The UK haven't detailed a level 0 neither has Germany etc - purely for the reason Level = 0 means a return to normal operating conditions. Does that mean Covid will be 100% eliminated? Probably not - but it will most likely drop into the background for most of the year and vaccines will ensure that those who need to be most protected from the disease on a yearly basis will be.

It's good that the UK included a review of social distancing and mask wearing in June. Jennie Harries has also hinted at masks being scrapped come summer: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/face-masks-summer-coronavirus-lockdown-b1806884.html. And there is constant and daily pressure from various media outlets, the Covid Recovery Group, and influential figures.

And Querdenken continues to protest regularly in Germany, which will put pressure on the Government.

But in the case of Ireland, because there's no opposition and only the odd small protest, people have to just hope that the government returns lost freedoms.

lalababa

Irish Stones wrote: »

There weren't any, yet people kept living their lives, not a business broke to financial losses.
I am open to any explanation, maybe I'm missing something.

There have always been restrictions/quarantine s of some kind somewhere during breakouts epidemics and pandemics. The reason we have worldwide (mostly) severe and prolonged restrictions now is because we have evolved towards that outcome (wheather too restrictive or not remains to be extrapolated).
There are c.2 1/2 million deaths from covid over the space of a year. If we didn't have restrictions what would that number be? I read from Toner MD , a John Hopkins centre researcher, who's model showed 65 million deaths in 18 months.
That's 26 times more...for Ireland that would be 4000*26 or 104,000 .
And how many with long covid or bad health ?

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

There weren't any, yet people kept living their lives, not a business broke to financial losses.
I am open to any explanation, maybe I'm missing something.

I think the big difference is social media. That and the decline in religious belief in the West. That means that people view death differently compared with how it was viewed in the past. That's only a guess, but I think it's probably true. Lord Sumption said in an interview a few months ago that what's going on in England now wouldn't have happened when he was a young man. It was just a different world. But we just have to accept that he world has changed.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's good that the UK included a review of social distancing and mask wearing in June. Jennie Harries has also hinted at masks being scrapped come summer: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/face-masks-summer-coronavirus-lockdown-b1806884.html. And there is constant and daily pressure from various media outlets, the Covid Recovery Group, and influential figures.And Querdenken continues to protest regularly in Germany, which will put pressure on the Government.

But in the case of Ireland, because there's no opposition and only the odd small protest, people have to just hope that the government returns lost freedoms.

The point is that a return to no restrictions due to successful vaccinations and lower infection
rates going forward does not need a plan. Hence here, UK, Germany and just about everywhere else I've checked does not have or need a "plan 0". Protesting about wearing facemasks is a different kettle of fish altogether.

Health restrictions based on the current pandemic are by their very nature temporary. We've already been up and down the scale depending on case numbers etc. People need to put down the conspiracy bible tbh.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

The point is that a return to no restrictions due to successful vaccinations and lower infection
rates going forward does not need a plan. Hence here, UK, Germany and just about everywhere else I've checked does not have or need a "plan 0". Protesting about wearing facemasks is a different kettle of fish altogether.

Health restrictions based on the current pandemic are by their very nature temporary. We've already been up and down the scale depending on case numbers etc. People need to put down the conspiracy bible tbh.

Let's see what happens. The increasing talk of 'a semblance of normality' and 'some kind of normality' doesn't fill me with much optimism, I'm afraid.

Gradius

Micky 32 wrote: »

We certainly know that the misery merchants will still be locked up at xmas and afraid to stick their heads outside the door

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

VG31

Gradius wrote: »

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Who said that? Even the most optimistic predictions last year never stated a vaccine would be available that quickly.

M_Murphy57

lalababa wrote: »

There have always been restrictions/quarantine s of some kind somewhere during breakouts epidemics and pandemics. The reason we have worldwide (mostly) severe and prolonged restrictions now is because we have evolved towards that outcome (wheather too restrictive or not remains to be extrapolated).
There are c.2 1/2 million deaths from covid over the space of a year. If we didn't have restrictions what would that number be? I read from Toner MD , a John Hopkins centre researcher, who's model showed 65 million deaths in 18 months.
That's 26 times more...for Ireland that would be 4000*26 or 104,000 .
And how many with long covid or bad health ?

That's categorically incorrect. Look at the US where many states essentially had no restrictions. Look at Belgium and Sweden.

Those early models have long long since been thrown out and demonstrably been incorrect.

With no restrictions Ireland wouldve had maybe 7k deaths. We are at 4k+ and counting with restrictions.

So the restrictions have saved around 3k lives to date not 100k.

Plumbthedepths

Gradius wrote: »

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

I don't remember it being said we were to have vaccines before the end of last Summer. The time I seen them hoped for was September/October.
I'll tell you one over riding fact, when the money starts getting tight and it will the political fear of Covid will take a backseat. It will become all about economics, although no one will say it.

Gradius

VG31 wrote: »

Who said that? Even the most optimistic predictions last year never stated a vaccine would be available that quickly.

It was very widely reported in the general media, "x company are on course for vaccine development by September perhaps". Very easy to remember because it was a laughable idea at the time.

Gradius

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't remember it being said we were to have vaccines before the end of last Summer. The time I seen them hoped for was September/October.
I'll tell you one over riding fact, when the money starts getting tight and it will the political fear of Covid will take a backseat. It will become all about economics, although no one will say it.

That's what I mean by end of summer, September.

Gradius

Gradius wrote: »

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

I agree. People aren't misery merchants for pointing out that there is no evidence to suggest that anything will change in the near future. NPHET has even suggested that the country might be locked down next Christmas. Lockdowns will always be an option for governments going forward.

VG31

Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has said society will have to live with a degree of mortality that will be “substantial”, but added that we will “get back to normal”.

He told Times Radio: “I think, you know, given the societal trade-offs, we are going to have to live with a degree of mortality that will be substantial … it will get less over time as more people get vaccinated and as more people get immune, and I do believe that we’ve been through the worst of this.”

Hayward said he did not think new variants of Covid-19 would completely evade vaccine-related immunity. “The vaccines will still take the sting out of it, if you like, and reduce the case fatality rates,” he said.

“Of course, we have the technology to update the vaccines and I think that’s where we’re going really, a situation that will be much more like flu, the numbers of deaths will be much more like flu, the approach to surveillance of new strains and development of new vaccines and regular annual vaccinations will be like that. And we will get back to normal.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/covid-uk-scientist-says-substantial-degree-of-mortality-inevitable-in-future

Some common sense here. It would be nice to hear something like this from NPHET but I doubt we will.

MrStuffins

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's see what happens. The increasing talk of 'a semblance of normality' and 'some kind of normality' doesn't fill me with much optimism, I'm afraid.

You seem to think that when people say "A semblance of normality" they are talking about life in the long term. But that isn't the case. At least you're presenting it that way.

We can't just switch the restrictions off until we are in a position to do so, no matter how much you or others would like to.

If we are in a position in to reduce restrictions while the Covid situation is still going on and return a "semblance of normality" before we reach a point where we go back to full normality, then we should take it. We'd be silly not to.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0303/1200589-coronavirus-vaccine/

So last week we failed to hit the miserly target of 100k shots. Will totally be recovered though.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201187-ireland-vaccine-latest/

So to re-iterate.
Last week we had a target of 100k. Didn't hit it. 81,843.
This week we apparently "did" 82k though the week isn't out so that'll be an estimate.
Next week's target is 84,166.

Yeah, really ****ing ramping things up. Christ. :rolleyes: