When will it all end?

"Oh but the Brits haven't done 2nd vaccinations yet". They banged out 51k on Tuesday and 68k on Wednesday. Now they've started ramping up it'll take a few days for their per capita 2nd dose rate to blast past ours and another (nonsense) totem to show we're doing ever so well will be gone.

seansouth36

Gradius wrote: »

This disease isn't going to expand predictably if let run rampant.

That's not counting the 100% certainty that health systems will collapse.

That's not figuring that X amount dying will continue happening. 10k deaths every year, not just one year. And who's to say it would be so low?

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This architecture of this virus implies that surprises are going to keep come by thick and fast, and none will be good.

This "vaccinate and pray" approach is really starting to agitate me. I don't think it's going to come close to fixing this thing.

I also know that staying locked up is ridiculous.

I also know that simply letting the thing run wild is crazy, "accepting" the reverse trend of humanity, having people's life expectancy getting shorter and all other morbidities increasing is completely unacceptable.


There is basically nothing on the cards that's acceptable and somebody somewhere is going to have to re-think this bullshyt asap.

You do realise that vaccinations have worked in the past in multiple cases? You seem to be saying that lockdowns are not acceptable, but nor is letting the virus run wild with no restrictions. The data shows that vaccinations work, so the most likely scenario is that they will continue to work, and life will get easier until we are fully back to normality. As mentioned before, there has never been a pandemic in history where restrictions stayed indefinitely. So unless this virus behaves in a way that no virus has ever behaved before, and unless governments behave in a way that no government has ever behaved before, we will get back to normal.

xboxseries

Hellrazer wrote: »

But as an over all % of the population if you are over 65 you have a 0.5% chance of dying from covid. If you are under 65 then you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid.

Since the start of the pandemic around 15,000 were hospitalised and 4396 have died. That doesn't mean the death rate is 29% because not all of those deaths happened in hospital - al lot occurred in nursing homes and not hospitals.

You also have to remember if someone dies of a heart attack and is tested for covid after death then it goes down as "dying with covid" which is what happened recently to an uncle of mine.

I agree with alot of that

The main problem is the data is crap, so crap that we can't make any conclusions, it's absolute rubbish data, like your uncle example of drying with covid when he had a heart attack, things like that destroy those models, pointless after that.

We've no idea how many have been infected, did Covid really kill them, how many are naturally immune, how long has it been spreading, do masks work, are those pcr tests even accurate, do those vaccines even work ( no challenge trials done ), do lockdowns work and on and on. it's a joke, like trying to understand the stock market.

All we have is rubbish data that 15,000 have been hospitalised out of 225,000 confirmed cases or so and that put's hospital rate at 5% of cases.

Those 15,000 like you said could have been hospitalised for other reasons and we could have missed a million cases

Honestly I gave up with the data and stats along time ago

I posted this a while ago when someone said vaccines were having an amazing effect on cases

We are doing better at reducing cases than the 2 best countries in the world at vaccine rollouts and we've given the vaccine to **** all.

Someone will counter your claims with a peer review soon of how your wrong, but I've been involved in peer review work and most wouldn't know what they are looking at lol

Ireland Jan 8th 8,200 cases
Ireland Mar 4th 460 cases

UK Jan 8th 68,000 cases
UK Mar 4th 6,500 cases

Just to wreck your head even more

Israel Jan 8th 6,309 cases
Israel Mar 4th 3,922 cases

Israel 60%, UK 30%, Ireland 5% population on 1st dose and we have seen the most case reductions

Hellrazer

Gradius wrote: »

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

Hellrazer

xboxseries wrote: »

I agree with alot of that

The main problem is the data is crap, so crap that we can't make any conclusions, it's absolute rubbish data, like your uncle example of drying with covid when he had a heart attack, things like that destroy those models, pointless after that.

We've no idea how many have been infected, did Covid really kill them, how many are naturally immune, how long has it been spreading, do masks work, are those pcr tests even accurate, do those vaccines even work ( no challenge trials done ), do lockdowns work and on and on. it's a joke, like trying to understand the stock market.

All we have is rubbish data that 15,000 have been hospitalised out of 225,000 confirmed cases or so and that put's hospital rate at 5% of cases.

Those 15,000 like you said could have been hospitalised for other reasons and we could have missed a million cases

Honestly I gave up with the data and stats along time ago

I posted this a while ago when someone said vaccines were having an amazing effect on cases

We are doing better at reducing cases than the 2 best countries in the world at vaccine rollouts and we've given the vaccine to **** all.

Someone will counter your claims with a peer review soon of how your wrong, but I've been involved in peer review work and most wouldn't know what they are looking at lol

Agree 100%. Time will tell how well the modelling works but so far Ive seen no evidence that we would ever have the number of deaths predicted last year but in all fairness we didn't know whether covid had a death rate of 0.5% or 10% at the time.

With hindsight it easier to get a better idea.

Even the US with a population of 382 million with 520k deaths is still only at 0.14% death rate as a total of population.

M_Murphy57

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

Hellrazer

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

If theres ever a case for nphet to be slapped on the wrist this is it.

Gradius

seansouth36 wrote: »

You do realise that vaccinations have worked in the past in multiple cases? You seem to be saying that lockdowns are not acceptable, but nor is letting the virus run wild with no restrictions. The data shows that vaccinations work, so the most likely scenario is that they will continue to work, and life will get easier until we are fully back to normality. As mentioned before, there has never been a pandemic in history where restrictions stayed indefinitely. So unless this virus behaves in a way that no virus has ever behaved before, and unless governments behave in a way that no government has ever behaved before, we will get back to normal.

Yes vaccines have been developed before and worked before. Equally, vaccines haven't been developed for everything and aren't a fix-all solution.

Vaccines are novel products and can't simply be created just because we need them.

The general information I'm seeing on this batch of vaccines is that they, to quote a bloke a few posts back, "take the sting out of tail". That's not nearly good enough and gigantic upsets are incoming if this is how it plays out in the end.

I'm not banking on these things, in other words.

Gradius

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

Regardless of media hysterics, it could very well turn out to be a problem. It's too early to categorically call it "scaremongering". Time will tell.

Plumbthedepths

Hellrazer wrote: »

If theres ever a case for nphet to be slapped on the wrist this is it.

On the face of it Glynn was responding to a question from George Lee, I believe he could have answered in a different manner, here's the conspiracy bit though. I wonder who prompted Lee to table the question.

Hellrazer

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

On the face of it Glynn was responding to a question from George Lee, I believe he could have answered in a different manner, here's the conspiracy bit though. I wonder who prompted Lee to table the question.

I agree 100% - Glynn should have checked the current information regarding covid and stillbirths before answering.

As such hes scared the living daylights out of every pregnant woman in the country now.

I’ve heard that 2 of the stillborns are included in tonight’s death figures.....

Petition to ease restrictions on funerals if anyone wants to sign.

https://riar.aontu.ie/ease-restrictions-on-funerals/?fbclid=IwAR157f8WgkLVA_J5LotNY7dDUcSq06zNK3eymGrl7-OWkrc0yaNA-C4euXQ

Hellrazer

Deleted User wrote: »

I’ve heard that 2 of the stillborns are included in tonight’s death figures.....

Just saw that - absolutely ridiculous including them without having the facts.

Its disgraceful that they are allowed to do this.

Prof Malone says

However, Prof Malone said it is not certain yet if the Covid infection caused the stillbirth.

"It is important to point out there is a difference between causation and association," he said.

"It is possible to find infection of Covid infections in the placenta, but it is a difficult thing to conclude that the Covid in the placenta caused the stillbirth. And that is what we don't know so far."

He said so far they have looked after 200 pregnant women in the Rotunda who have had Covid and there has been no adverse outcomes among all those women.

Mr. Karate

Deleted User wrote: »

But we even hear doctors and scientists talk of normality returning only when the world has been vaccinated. Fauci was interviewed the other day and mentioned eradicating covid like smallpox. That would take years.

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

seansouth36

Gradius wrote: »

Yes vaccines have been developed before and worked before. Equally, vaccines haven't been developed for everything and aren't a fix-all solution.

Vaccines are novel products and can't simply be created just because we need them.

The general information I'm seeing on this batch of vaccines is that they, to quote a bloke a few posts back, "take the sting out of tail". That's not nearly good enough and gigantic upsets are incoming if this is how it plays out in the end.

I'm not banking on these things, in other words.

I don't think vaccines will end this in one fell swoop, but the efficacy we are seeing seems to be exceeding expectations. I am hoping a mix of vaccines, better weather and some restrictions will see most of this over by mid-summer. If I have to wear a mask on Dublin Bus/Ryanair flights next winter, that's not really a big issue for me. Whether the rollout will go as they are saying is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't put it past this government to mess the whole thing up.

seansouth36

seansouth36 wrote: »

It's also due to the fact that so much of life is automated now: from farms to global shipping to online shopping, life can go on with lockdowns far closer to normality than it could in the 1960s. No one could have worked from home in 1968, no farms were automated, global trade and industry was far more labour-intensive. The idea that things were better in the "good old days" when we let pandemics run rampant doesn't make much sense. I don't see religion having much do to with it, given countries as religious as the UK in the 1960s (Saudi Arabia for example) have had strict lockdowns.

That's true. You can't compare today's world with yesterday's world really. But my point about religious belief was more to do with how people viewed death.

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

True.

Sobit1964

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

Holohan is like an estate agent in 2008 bragging that prices are rising 20k a week. A midwit grifter.

Fauci stinks to high heaven with involvement in patents and companies deeply tied into this whole event. A spectacular scumbag with blood on his hands.

ujjjjjjjjj

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

Was utterly appalling. NPHET have zero credibility in my eyes at this stage.

Scotty #

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

Fauci has used this to become a celebrity? Are you for real?

Fauci has been famous for decades. Anyone old enough to remember the AIDS epidemic of the 80's will remember Fauci. He was always on TV. He's been a household name in the states since before you were born!

Using this to become a celebrity ?? I've heard it all now.

Sobit1964

Scotty # wrote: »

Fauci has used this to become a celebrity? Are you for real?

Fauci has been famous for decades. Anyone old enough to remember the AIDS epidemic of the 80's will remember Fauci. He was always on TV. He's been a household name in the states since before you were born!

Using this to become a celebrity ?? I've heard it all now.

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

ujjjjjjjjj

Hellrazer wrote: »

But as an over all % of the population if you are over 65 you have a 0.5% chance of dying from covid. If you are under 65 then you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid.

Since the start of the pandemic around 15,000 were hospitalised and 4396 have died. That doesn't mean the death rate is 29% because not all of those deaths happened in hospital - al lot occurred in nursing homes and not hospitals.

You also have to remember if someone dies of a heart attack and is tested for covid after death then it goes down as "dying with covid" which is what happened recently to an uncle of mine.

Take for example confirmed cases in Ireland which is around 222k cases. Ths death rate is 2% of confirmed cases. Again this is incorrect as many people are asymptomatic and not everyone in the country has been tested.

The only consistent one is % of population as a whole. And its true that the death rate is 0.5-0.6% when you check the numbers against other countries data.

Absolutely vital point that....mortality rates are low even when we directly compare deaths with confirmed (tested) cases but there is no doubt many people have had Covid who weren't tested and won't show up in figures.

The actuality mortality rate will be way lower than anyone’s calculation based on tested cases v mortality.

We will never know how many have had it as you can't even rely on antibody testing.

Mortality percentages are worst case.

For the layman it is pretty simple - if you are under 50 the risk is miniscule, 50-65 slight increase but miniscule , 65-80 definitely a consideration and you should take care, over 80 it is far from a death sentence but you should take active steps to protect to yourself.

What is frustrating is that we have known this since last Jan when the first sets of data came out and we had real life tests like the French and US aircraft carriers which were riddled with Covid yet had virtually nothing serious. From memory I think there was one fatality between the two aircraft carriers, a US one.

We panicked and globally the death toll is nothing remarkable in comparison to flu pandemics in the 50's and 60's when we literally just got on with life.

All history now of course but the suggestion that we don't fully open up when our populations are vaccinated with the 80%-90% plus reduction in serious cases these vaccines bring is utterly insane.

GlobalSun

In June, for sure.






I mean, June 2027.

mcsean2163

seansouth36 wrote: »

I don't think vaccines will end this in one fell swoop, but the efficacy we are seeing seems to be exceeding expectations. I am hoping a mix of vaccines, better weather and some restrictions will see most of this over by mid-summer. If I have to wear a mask on Dublin Bus/Ryanair flights next winter, that's not really a big issue for me. Whether the rollout will go as they are saying is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't put it past this government to mess the whole thing up.

Influenza vaccine is 40-60% efficacious. These covid19 vaccines seem to all be better than 80%.

Scotty #

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

and that has got what exactly to do with what I posted???

Sobit1964

Scotty # wrote: »

and that has got what exactly to do with what I posted???

I'm agreeing with your well made point - he is very good at being a celebrity on the TV and has been for a long time.

Micky 32

Gradius wrote: »

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Once populations receive it things will rapidly change. Nothing to argue about really.

We’ll see if you are still banging the misery drum in 9 months.

You are like others on here. Comparing last year vs this year when there were no vaccines approved, huge difference.

Micky 32

I posted this qoute from RTE news on another thread so i’ll post it here. The future is looking good:


“” The impact of the vaccination roll-out on healthcare workers has been described as "phenomenal".


Professor Mary Horgan, President of the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland and Infectious Diseases Consultant at Cork University Hospital, said people should take hope from "the fact that vaccines are working".

Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne, Prof Horgan said she understands that people are frustrated with the pace of the roll-out, but the programme in the community will speed up, as was the case after the initial rollout in hospitals.

She said the numbers of healthcare workers becoming infected with Covid-19 "just turned off" last month.

It's been phenomenal. We were tracking the number of healthcare workers infected from January into February and essentially it just turned off in February, and likewise the number of hospital admissions."

Prof Horgan, who is a member of the National Public Health Emergency Team, said the decline in cases is not linked solely to the decrease of infection in the community, but due to the effectiveness of the vaccine.””

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Nothing to argue about really.

I sincerely hope you are right but unfortunately every health expert in the world is saying that vaccines are not the silver bullet people think they are.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.