When will it all end?

MrStuffins

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

With no restrictions Ireland wouldve had maybe 7k deaths. We are at 4k+ and counting with restrictions.

Bullsh*t!

Gradius

VG31 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/covid-uk-scientist-says-substantial-degree-of-mortality-inevitable-in-future

Some common sense here. It would be nice to hear something like this from NPHET but I doubt we will.

I think he sounds ridiculous. We're going to trade normal society against significant mortality?

Sure how is that society "normal" then?

And the way he phrases it sounds like a forever thing, not simply until vaccines are given out.

He is right in that someone needs to call a spade a spade, but his idea that significant amounts of people dying should be acceptable is simply wrong.

His idea about creating new vaccines on the fly, at will, is wildly optimistic.

This whole thing, the whole shebang, needs a complete reconsideration of the direction we're blindly heading in. Reducing life expectancy and increasing mortality and morbidity to significant degree's isn't going to cut it.

M_Murphy57

MrStuffins wrote: »

Bullsh*t!

That's really insightful. Do you want to expand on why you believe Ireland wouldve had a flat 2.6% mortality rate at all ages with no restriction (which was the post I replied to)

Or why there arent 8 million deaths in the US based on the same models the projected 100k+ deaths here?

MrStuffins

MrStuffins wrote: »

You seem to think that when people say "A semblance of normality" they are talking about life in the long term. But that isn't the case. At least you're presenting it that way.

We can't just switch the restrictions off until we are in a position to do so, no matter how much you or others would like to.

If we are in a position in to reduce restrictions while the Covid situation is still going on and return a "semblance of normality" before we reach a point where we go back to full normality, then we should take it. We'd be silly not to.

But we even hear doctors and scientists talk of normality returning only when the world has been vaccinated. Fauci was interviewed the other day and mentioned eradicating covid like smallpox. That would take years.

MrStuffins

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

That's really insightful. Do you want to expand on why you believe Ireland wouldve had a flat 2.6% mortality rate at all ages with no restriction (which was the post I replied to)

Or why there arent 8 million deaths in the US based on the same models the projected 100k+ deaths here?

You're the one making the claim of 7k deaths instead of 4k.

Feel free to expand on your figures. Otherwise it's bullsh*t!

Hellrazer

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

That's categorically incorrect. Look at the US where many states essentially had no restrictions. Look at Belgium and Sweden.

Those early models have long long since been thrown out and demonstrably been incorrect.

With no restrictions Ireland wouldve had maybe 7k deaths. We are at 4k+ and counting with restrictions.

So the restrictions have saved around 3k lives to date not 100k.

Exactly. In another thread Ive laid out the figures for 7 different countries.

The reality of it is that covid 19 kills 0.54 - 0.6% of over 65s and 0.008% of those under 65 and 92% of all deaths have occurred in over 65s

Today we are sitting at 4396 deaths. 4044 of them are in over 65s (approximately @92%)

So lets be reasonable - weve a population of 5.4 million. For us to have 100k deaths then every single person in the country would have to catch covid @ a death rate of 0.5%
That give us 108k deaths. Our death rate is right in line with the models 0.54% of 700000 (over 65s) @ 3780 deaths. Were probably closer to a death rate of 5.8% in over 65s.

Now take the under 65s - 4.7million @ 0.008% - That give us 376 deaths assuming every one of those 4.7 million catch it.

Theres no way in anyones models would we have 100k deaths.

This is going to max out at around 5000 deaths if all the vaccines work.

Restrictions haven't saved 95.000 people from dying.

xboxseries

Hellrazer wrote: »

Exactly. In another thread Ive laid out the figures for 7 different countries.

The reality of it is that covid 19 kills 0.54 - 0.6% of over 65s and 0.08% of those under 65 and 92% of all deaths have occurred in over 65s

Today we are sitting at 4396 deaths. 4044 of them are in over 65s (approximately @92%)

So lets be reasonable - weve a population of 5.4 million. For us to have 100k deaths then every single person in the country would have to catch covid @ a death rate of 0.5%
That give us 108k deaths. Our death rate is right in line with the models 0.54% of 700000 (over 65s) @ 3780 deaths. Were probably closer to a death rate of 5.8% in over 65s.

Now take the under 65s - 4.7million @ 0.08% - That give us 3760 deaths assuming every one of those 4.7 million catch it.

Theres no way in anyones models would we have 100k deaths.

This is going to max out at around 5000 deaths if all the vaccines work.

Restrictions haven't saved 95.000 people from dying.

It's only 0.5% because we can save many in hospital's

Take away a health service and who know's what that percentage could be

If 5% of over 65 need to go to hospital and no hospital is available, chances are those 5% will die

Hellrazer

xboxseries wrote: »

It's only 0.5% because we can save many in hospital's

Take away a health service and who know's what that percentage could be

If 5% of over 65 need to go to hospital and no hospital is available, chances are those 5% will die

But as an over all % of the population if you are over 65 you have a 0.5% chance of dying from covid. If you are under 65 then you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid.

Since the start of the pandemic around 15,000 were hospitalised and 4396 have died. That doesn't mean the death rate is 29% because not all of those deaths happened in hospital - al lot occurred in nursing homes and not hospitals.

You also have to remember if someone dies of a heart attack and is tested for covid after death then it goes down as "dying with covid" which is what happened recently to an uncle of mine.

Take for example confirmed cases in Ireland which is around 222k cases. Ths death rate is 2% of confirmed cases. Again this is incorrect as many people are asymptomatic and not everyone in the country has been tested.

The only consistent one is % of population as a whole. And its true that the death rate is 0.5-0.6% when you check the numbers against other countries data.

Gradius

Hellrazer wrote: »

Exactly. In another thread Ive laid out the figures for 7 different countries.

The reality of it is that covid 19 kills 0.54 - 0.6% of over 65s and 0.008% of those under 65 and 92% of all deaths have occurred in over 65s

Today we are sitting at 4396 deaths. 4044 of them are in over 65s (approximately @92%)

So lets be reasonable - weve a population of 5.4 million. For us to have 100k deaths then every single person in the country would have to catch covid @ a death rate of 0.5%
That give us 108k deaths. Our death rate is right in line with the models 0.54% of 700000 (over 65s) @ 3780 deaths. Were probably closer to a death rate of 5.8% in over 65s.

Now take the under 65s - 4.7million @ 0.008% - That give us 376 deaths assuming every one of those 4.7 million catch it.

Theres no way in anyones models would we have 100k deaths.

This is going to max out at around 5000 deaths if all the vaccines work.

Restrictions haven't saved 95.000 people from dying.

This disease isn't going to expand predictably if let run rampant.

That's not counting the 100% certainty that health systems will collapse.

That's not figuring that X amount dying will continue happening. 10k deaths every year, not just one year. And who's to say it would be so low?

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This architecture of this virus implies that surprises are going to keep come by thick and fast, and none will be good.

This "vaccinate and pray" approach is really starting to agitate me. I don't think it's going to come close to fixing this thing.

I also know that staying locked up is ridiculous.

I also know that simply letting the thing run wild is crazy, "accepting" the reverse trend of humanity, having people's life expectancy getting shorter and all other morbidities increasing is completely unacceptable.


There is basically nothing on the cards that's acceptable and somebody somewhere is going to have to re-think this bullshyt asap.

seansouth36

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the big difference is social media. That and the decline in religious belief in the West. That means that people view death differently compared with how it was viewed in the past. That's only a guess, but I think it's probably true. Lord Sumption said in an interview a few months ago that what's going on in England now wouldn't have happened when he was a young man. It was just a different world. But we just have to accept that he world has changed.

It's also due to the fact that so much of life is automated now: from farms to global shipping to online shopping, life can go on with lockdowns far closer to normality than it could in the 1960s. No one could have worked from home in 1968, no farms were automated, global trade and industry was far more labour-intensive. The idea that things were better in the "good old days" when we let pandemics run rampant doesn't make much sense. I don't see religion having much do to with it, given countries as religious as the UK in the 1960s (Saudi Arabia for example) have had strict lockdowns.

"Oh but the Brits haven't done 2nd vaccinations yet". They banged out 51k on Tuesday and 68k on Wednesday. Now they've started ramping up it'll take a few days for their per capita 2nd dose rate to blast past ours and another (nonsense) totem to show we're doing ever so well will be gone.

seansouth36

Gradius wrote: »

This disease isn't going to expand predictably if let run rampant.

That's not counting the 100% certainty that health systems will collapse.

That's not figuring that X amount dying will continue happening. 10k deaths every year, not just one year. And who's to say it would be so low?

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This architecture of this virus implies that surprises are going to keep come by thick and fast, and none will be good.

This "vaccinate and pray" approach is really starting to agitate me. I don't think it's going to come close to fixing this thing.

I also know that staying locked up is ridiculous.

I also know that simply letting the thing run wild is crazy, "accepting" the reverse trend of humanity, having people's life expectancy getting shorter and all other morbidities increasing is completely unacceptable.


There is basically nothing on the cards that's acceptable and somebody somewhere is going to have to re-think this bullshyt asap.

You do realise that vaccinations have worked in the past in multiple cases? You seem to be saying that lockdowns are not acceptable, but nor is letting the virus run wild with no restrictions. The data shows that vaccinations work, so the most likely scenario is that they will continue to work, and life will get easier until we are fully back to normality. As mentioned before, there has never been a pandemic in history where restrictions stayed indefinitely. So unless this virus behaves in a way that no virus has ever behaved before, and unless governments behave in a way that no government has ever behaved before, we will get back to normal.

xboxseries

Hellrazer wrote: »

But as an over all % of the population if you are over 65 you have a 0.5% chance of dying from covid. If you are under 65 then you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid.

Since the start of the pandemic around 15,000 were hospitalised and 4396 have died. That doesn't mean the death rate is 29% because not all of those deaths happened in hospital - al lot occurred in nursing homes and not hospitals.

You also have to remember if someone dies of a heart attack and is tested for covid after death then it goes down as "dying with covid" which is what happened recently to an uncle of mine.

I agree with alot of that

The main problem is the data is crap, so crap that we can't make any conclusions, it's absolute rubbish data, like your uncle example of drying with covid when he had a heart attack, things like that destroy those models, pointless after that.

We've no idea how many have been infected, did Covid really kill them, how many are naturally immune, how long has it been spreading, do masks work, are those pcr tests even accurate, do those vaccines even work ( no challenge trials done ), do lockdowns work and on and on. it's a joke, like trying to understand the stock market.

All we have is rubbish data that 15,000 have been hospitalised out of 225,000 confirmed cases or so and that put's hospital rate at 5% of cases.

Those 15,000 like you said could have been hospitalised for other reasons and we could have missed a million cases

Honestly I gave up with the data and stats along time ago

I posted this a while ago when someone said vaccines were having an amazing effect on cases

We are doing better at reducing cases than the 2 best countries in the world at vaccine rollouts and we've given the vaccine to **** all.

Someone will counter your claims with a peer review soon of how your wrong, but I've been involved in peer review work and most wouldn't know what they are looking at lol

Ireland Jan 8th 8,200 cases
Ireland Mar 4th 460 cases

UK Jan 8th 68,000 cases
UK Mar 4th 6,500 cases

Just to wreck your head even more

Israel Jan 8th 6,309 cases
Israel Mar 4th 3,922 cases

Israel 60%, UK 30%, Ireland 5% population on 1st dose and we have seen the most case reductions

Hellrazer

Gradius wrote: »

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

Hellrazer

xboxseries wrote: »

I agree with alot of that

The main problem is the data is crap, so crap that we can't make any conclusions, it's absolute rubbish data, like your uncle example of drying with covid when he had a heart attack, things like that destroy those models, pointless after that.

We've no idea how many have been infected, did Covid really kill them, how many are naturally immune, how long has it been spreading, do masks work, are those pcr tests even accurate, do those vaccines even work ( no challenge trials done ), do lockdowns work and on and on. it's a joke, like trying to understand the stock market.

All we have is rubbish data that 15,000 have been hospitalised out of 225,000 confirmed cases or so and that put's hospital rate at 5% of cases.

Those 15,000 like you said could have been hospitalised for other reasons and we could have missed a million cases

Honestly I gave up with the data and stats along time ago

I posted this a while ago when someone said vaccines were having an amazing effect on cases

We are doing better at reducing cases than the 2 best countries in the world at vaccine rollouts and we've given the vaccine to **** all.

Someone will counter your claims with a peer review soon of how your wrong, but I've been involved in peer review work and most wouldn't know what they are looking at lol

Agree 100%. Time will tell how well the modelling works but so far Ive seen no evidence that we would ever have the number of deaths predicted last year but in all fairness we didn't know whether covid had a death rate of 0.5% or 10% at the time.

With hindsight it easier to get a better idea.

Even the US with a population of 382 million with 520k deaths is still only at 0.14% death rate as a total of population.

M_Murphy57

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

Hellrazer

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

If theres ever a case for nphet to be slapped on the wrist this is it.

Gradius

seansouth36 wrote: »

You do realise that vaccinations have worked in the past in multiple cases? You seem to be saying that lockdowns are not acceptable, but nor is letting the virus run wild with no restrictions. The data shows that vaccinations work, so the most likely scenario is that they will continue to work, and life will get easier until we are fully back to normality. As mentioned before, there has never been a pandemic in history where restrictions stayed indefinitely. So unless this virus behaves in a way that no virus has ever behaved before, and unless governments behave in a way that no government has ever behaved before, we will get back to normal.

Yes vaccines have been developed before and worked before. Equally, vaccines haven't been developed for everything and aren't a fix-all solution.

Vaccines are novel products and can't simply be created just because we need them.

The general information I'm seeing on this batch of vaccines is that they, to quote a bloke a few posts back, "take the sting out of tail". That's not nearly good enough and gigantic upsets are incoming if this is how it plays out in the end.

I'm not banking on these things, in other words.

Gradius

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is more nphet scare mongering. There have been multiple studies done that show there is no effect in pregnant women or any more danger to their babies.

Even RTE have rolled back on this unsound advice since yesterday.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201087-coronavirus-ireland/

Nphet need to stop with the doom and gloom.

Regardless of media hysterics, it could very well turn out to be a problem. It's too early to categorically call it "scaremongering". Time will tell.

Plumbthedepths

Hellrazer wrote: »

If theres ever a case for nphet to be slapped on the wrist this is it.

On the face of it Glynn was responding to a question from George Lee, I believe he could have answered in a different manner, here's the conspiracy bit though. I wonder who prompted Lee to table the question.

Hellrazer

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

On the face of it Glynn was responding to a question from George Lee, I believe he could have answered in a different manner, here's the conspiracy bit though. I wonder who prompted Lee to table the question.

I agree 100% - Glynn should have checked the current information regarding covid and stillbirths before answering.

As such hes scared the living daylights out of every pregnant woman in the country now.

I’ve heard that 2 of the stillborns are included in tonight’s death figures.....

Petition to ease restrictions on funerals if anyone wants to sign.

https://riar.aontu.ie/ease-restrictions-on-funerals/?fbclid=IwAR157f8WgkLVA_J5LotNY7dDUcSq06zNK3eymGrl7-OWkrc0yaNA-C4euXQ

Hellrazer

Deleted User wrote: »

I’ve heard that 2 of the stillborns are included in tonight’s death figures.....

Just saw that - absolutely ridiculous including them without having the facts.

Its disgraceful that they are allowed to do this.

Prof Malone says

However, Prof Malone said it is not certain yet if the Covid infection caused the stillbirth.

"It is important to point out there is a difference between causation and association," he said.

"It is possible to find infection of Covid infections in the placenta, but it is a difficult thing to conclude that the Covid in the placenta caused the stillbirth. And that is what we don't know so far."

He said so far they have looked after 200 pregnant women in the Rotunda who have had Covid and there has been no adverse outcomes among all those women.

Mr. Karate

Deleted User wrote: »

But we even hear doctors and scientists talk of normality returning only when the world has been vaccinated. Fauci was interviewed the other day and mentioned eradicating covid like smallpox. That would take years.

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

seansouth36

Gradius wrote: »

Yes vaccines have been developed before and worked before. Equally, vaccines haven't been developed for everything and aren't a fix-all solution.

Vaccines are novel products and can't simply be created just because we need them.

The general information I'm seeing on this batch of vaccines is that they, to quote a bloke a few posts back, "take the sting out of tail". That's not nearly good enough and gigantic upsets are incoming if this is how it plays out in the end.

I'm not banking on these things, in other words.

I don't think vaccines will end this in one fell swoop, but the efficacy we are seeing seems to be exceeding expectations. I am hoping a mix of vaccines, better weather and some restrictions will see most of this over by mid-summer. If I have to wear a mask on Dublin Bus/Ryanair flights next winter, that's not really a big issue for me. Whether the rollout will go as they are saying is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't put it past this government to mess the whole thing up.

seansouth36

seansouth36 wrote: »

It's also due to the fact that so much of life is automated now: from farms to global shipping to online shopping, life can go on with lockdowns far closer to normality than it could in the 1960s. No one could have worked from home in 1968, no farms were automated, global trade and industry was far more labour-intensive. The idea that things were better in the "good old days" when we let pandemics run rampant doesn't make much sense. I don't see religion having much do to with it, given countries as religious as the UK in the 1960s (Saudi Arabia for example) have had strict lockdowns.

That's true. You can't compare today's world with yesterday's world really. But my point about religious belief was more to do with how people viewed death.

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

True.

Sobit1964

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

Holohan is like an estate agent in 2008 bragging that prices are rising 20k a week. A midwit grifter.

Fauci stinks to high heaven with involvement in patents and companies deeply tied into this whole event. A spectacular scumbag with blood on his hands.

ujjjjjjjjj

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

The initial "paper" on the condition was also based on one single death.

It was beyond wreckless for it to be announced that 4 stillbirths "might" be from covid.

The govt knew full well people would get hysterical and read it as "covid kills the unborn".

Disgraceful stuff.

Was utterly appalling. NPHET have zero credibility in my eyes at this stage.