When will it all end?

Scotty #

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci is like Holohon a Snake Oil Grifter who has used this to become a Celebrity.

Fauci has used this to become a celebrity? Are you for real?

Fauci has been famous for decades. Anyone old enough to remember the AIDS epidemic of the 80's will remember Fauci. He was always on TV. He's been a household name in the states since before you were born!

Using this to become a celebrity ?? I've heard it all now.

Sobit1964

Scotty # wrote: »

Fauci has used this to become a celebrity? Are you for real?

Fauci has been famous for decades. Anyone old enough to remember the AIDS epidemic of the 80's will remember Fauci. He was always on TV. He's been a household name in the states since before you were born!

Using this to become a celebrity ?? I've heard it all now.

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

ujjjjjjjjj

Hellrazer wrote: »

But as an over all % of the population if you are over 65 you have a 0.5% chance of dying from covid. If you are under 65 then you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid.

Since the start of the pandemic around 15,000 were hospitalised and 4396 have died. That doesn't mean the death rate is 29% because not all of those deaths happened in hospital - al lot occurred in nursing homes and not hospitals.

You also have to remember if someone dies of a heart attack and is tested for covid after death then it goes down as "dying with covid" which is what happened recently to an uncle of mine.

Take for example confirmed cases in Ireland which is around 222k cases. Ths death rate is 2% of confirmed cases. Again this is incorrect as many people are asymptomatic and not everyone in the country has been tested.

The only consistent one is % of population as a whole. And its true that the death rate is 0.5-0.6% when you check the numbers against other countries data.

Absolutely vital point that....mortality rates are low even when we directly compare deaths with confirmed (tested) cases but there is no doubt many people have had Covid who weren't tested and won't show up in figures.

The actuality mortality rate will be way lower than anyone’s calculation based on tested cases v mortality.

We will never know how many have had it as you can't even rely on antibody testing.

Mortality percentages are worst case.

For the layman it is pretty simple - if you are under 50 the risk is miniscule, 50-65 slight increase but miniscule , 65-80 definitely a consideration and you should take care, over 80 it is far from a death sentence but you should take active steps to protect to yourself.

What is frustrating is that we have known this since last Jan when the first sets of data came out and we had real life tests like the French and US aircraft carriers which were riddled with Covid yet had virtually nothing serious. From memory I think there was one fatality between the two aircraft carriers, a US one.

We panicked and globally the death toll is nothing remarkable in comparison to flu pandemics in the 50's and 60's when we literally just got on with life.

All history now of course but the suggestion that we don't fully open up when our populations are vaccinated with the 80%-90% plus reduction in serious cases these vaccines bring is utterly insane.

GlobalSun

In June, for sure.






I mean, June 2027.

mcsean2163

seansouth36 wrote: »

I don't think vaccines will end this in one fell swoop, but the efficacy we are seeing seems to be exceeding expectations. I am hoping a mix of vaccines, better weather and some restrictions will see most of this over by mid-summer. If I have to wear a mask on Dublin Bus/Ryanair flights next winter, that's not really a big issue for me. Whether the rollout will go as they are saying is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't put it past this government to mess the whole thing up.

Influenza vaccine is 40-60% efficacious. These covid19 vaccines seem to all be better than 80%.

Scotty #

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

and that has got what exactly to do with what I posted???

Sobit1964

Scotty # wrote: »

and that has got what exactly to do with what I posted???

I'm agreeing with your well made point - he is very good at being a celebrity on the TV and has been for a long time.

Micky 32

Gradius wrote: »

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Once populations receive it things will rapidly change. Nothing to argue about really.

We’ll see if you are still banging the misery drum in 9 months.

You are like others on here. Comparing last year vs this year when there were no vaccines approved, huge difference.

Micky 32

I posted this qoute from RTE news on another thread so i’ll post it here. The future is looking good:


“” The impact of the vaccination roll-out on healthcare workers has been described as "phenomenal".


Professor Mary Horgan, President of the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland and Infectious Diseases Consultant at Cork University Hospital, said people should take hope from "the fact that vaccines are working".

Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne, Prof Horgan said she understands that people are frustrated with the pace of the roll-out, but the programme in the community will speed up, as was the case after the initial rollout in hospitals.

She said the numbers of healthcare workers becoming infected with Covid-19 "just turned off" last month.

It's been phenomenal. We were tracking the number of healthcare workers infected from January into February and essentially it just turned off in February, and likewise the number of hospital admissions."

Prof Horgan, who is a member of the National Public Health Emergency Team, said the decline in cases is not linked solely to the decrease of infection in the community, but due to the effectiveness of the vaccine.””

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Nothing to argue about really.

I sincerely hope you are right but unfortunately every health expert in the world is saying that vaccines are not the silver bullet people think they are.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

I sincerely hope you are right but unfortunately for you every health expert in the world is saying that vaccines are not the silver bullet people think they are.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

Unknown Soldier

Micky 32 wrote: »

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

Lots of things have been "proven" in the last 12 months, but here we are.

seansouth36

Deleted User wrote: »

That's true. You can't compare today's world with yesterday's world really. But my point about religious belief was more to do with how people viewed death.

Not sure if you have ever watched Adam Curtis' documentaries; he has some interesting things to say about how the world has changed since then. You may enjoy this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6-IuHtthcM

Micky 32

Unknown Soldier wrote: »

Lots of things have been "proven" in the last 12 months, but here we are.

Well if you choose to ignore scientific facts to suit your own narrative there’s not much i can do for you.

seansouth36

seansouth36 wrote: »

Not sure if you have ever watched Adam Curtis' documentaries; he has some interesting things to say about how the world has changed since then. You may enjoy this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6-IuHtthcM

Thanks. I'll check it out.

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

They have already been proven to work. See my above post also.

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

seansouth36

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Yeah he was a fear merchant then who got it all wrong too:

Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association)

He has a long history of making dubious statements based on nothing and then reversing them later to keep his mug in front of cameras.

To be fair, no one knew much about AIDs in 1983; the famous Princess Diana photo that shattered many of the stereotypes about physical contact was taken in 1987. Good scientists change their opinions based on new data - if you can name someone in 1983 who fully understood AIDs and predicted it would become a manageable disease, please do tell.

Tazz T

Israel's infections are plateauing due to opening up, but deaths are continuing to fall exponentially. Vaccines are preventing deaths and serious illness.

seansouth36

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

Unfortunately Israel has a large cohort of maniacs (Orthodox Jews) who have never played by the rules and have an apocalyptic view of the world. Having lived in Israel for four years, I saw first hand how hated that group are, particularly among Ashkenazi Jews. While Israel's numbers are rising, the numbers of ICU/hospitalizations/deaths among vulnerable/elderly are falling.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

There’s a lot of factors involved there. One factor was there was twice the infection rate with people who just had the injection thinking they were safe in the first week. They let their guard down.

There’s also evidence from the UK the effectiveness of the vaccine coming to light also.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s a lot of factors involved there. One factor was there was twice the infection rate with people who just had the injection thinking they were safe in the first week. They let their guard down.

There’s also evidence from the UK the effectiveness of the vaccine coming to light also.

The big issue is cases. If the obsession with cases continues post-vaccination then the country will be in and out of lockdown indefinitely. It won't matter how effective the vaccines are if cases continue to be taken into account. The Isle of Man is after locking down for a third time because of a rise in case numbers. The point is that a precedent has been set and can be used over and over again.

Frozen Veg

The most vulnerable are almost all vaccinated now. Time to start attempting to get life back towards some normality now.

The only Risk now is alternative strains, it's up to the government to control that at the borders.

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

The big issue is cases. If the obsession with cases continues post-vaccination then the country will be in and out of lockdown indefinitely. It won't matter how effective the vaccines are if cases continue to be taken into account. The Isle of Man is after locking down for a third time because of a rise in case numbers. The point is that a precedent has been set and can be used over and over again.

If people stop having symptoms post vaccination you might find people getting tested numbers plummet. Also looking like transmission could be reduced by 60/70%.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

If people stop having symptoms post vaccination you might find people getting tested numbers plummet. Also looking like transmission could be reduced by 60/70%.

That could happen, but a lot of perfectly healthy people have been getting tested since March. And then there's the problem of people being required to get tested for their job or to go on holidays. That could cause the case numbers to rise. A move away from the obsession with case numbers is what's required.

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

A move away from the obsession with case numbers is what's required.

Oh i totally agree.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

Oh i totally agree.

We'll know whether cases will continue to be taken into account soon enough in because the UK, Israel, and the UAE should reach herd immunity in the next few months. And the US won't be too far behind either. Of the four I think the US is the most likely to move away from case numbers because of the make up of the country. Neil Oliver recently described it a country that is made up of many different countries. We can see that in the approaches adopted by various states such as South Dakota, Texas, Florida, Alabama, among others.

Gradius

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately for you the facts are against you. The vaccines work end of story. Once populations receive it things will rapidly change. Nothing to argue about really.

We’ll see if you are still banging the misery drum in 9 months.

You are like others on here. Comparing last year vs this year when there were no vaccines approved, huge difference.

Let me tell you as one internet stranger to another, I hope everything is back to normal the quicker the better.

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

Micky 32

Gradius wrote: »

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

So if you’re right would you like a medal? Yeah the forums are full of your type of posters who think it makes them superior because they ‘think ‘ they are right and told you so….

However I’m confident things will be a lot better by Christmas but i won’t be as petty and come on here with micro-pleasure i’ll be just glad life will be returning

ypres5

Gradius wrote: »

Let me tell you as one internet stranger to another, I hope everything is back to normal the quicker the better.

However, if this shyte version of life is still basically the same come Christmas, quoting you back to yourself with your 100% certainty will be a micro-pleasure in the apocalypse.

So, thanks for making it a win-win

your entire argument has absolutely zero basis in fact and seems to be entirely built on baseless pessimism. hospitalizations and deaths have plummeted in countries ahead of us in the vaccine process your argument has no scientific basis

Charles Babbage

Scotty # wrote: »

I think the early signs are hopeful but that's a far cry from 'proven'. Why aren't Israel's numbers falling through the floor? They've been level or sightly increasing the last week or so.

As I said, I do hope you are right!

We need to know who is getting the disease.

If half the people are vaccinated and things are open and if the half who aren't vaccinated get a lot of Covid, then that does not prove anything much.