When will it all end?

Scotty #

ypres5 wrote: »

your entire argument has absolutely zero basis in fact and seems to be entirely built on baseless pessimism. hospitalizations and deaths have plummeted in countries ahead of us in the vaccine process your argument has no scientific basis

I'm not saying you're wrong, but perhaps you could put our minds at ease by showing some data that supports your stance? Evidence of hospitalisations and/or deaths declining due to vaccine rollout, not lockdowns.

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

Klonker

Scotty # wrote: »

I'm not saying you're wrong, but perhaps you could put our minds at ease by showing some data that supports your stance? Evidence of hospitalisations and/or deaths declining due to vaccine rollout, not lockdowns.

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

One of those countries 7 day average decreased 50% while the others decreased 90%. So that would mean one of those countries can have 5 times as many cases to have a similar death rate as the other country. So I think its pretty clear which country has been vaccinated.

Of course this isn't clear from your graph which is why you didn't include a cases graph too as you're purposely trying to muddy the data. Why you'd want to do that I honestly don't know.

ypres5

Klonker wrote: »

One of those countries 7 day average decreased 50% while the others decreased 90%. So that would mean one of those countries can have 5 times as many cases to have a similar death rate as the other country. So I think its pretty clear which country has been vaccinated.

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Micky 32

ypres5 wrote: »

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Yep there’s no question that they work. Some don’t seem to want to accept it. Best to ignore them.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

One country has 3% vaccinated and the other has over 50%. Can you tell which is which??

The one with waaaay more cases but the same number of deaths (much lower, and decreasing, CFR) is the one that has over 50% vaccinated. That'd be Israel.

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yep there’s no question that they work. Some don’t seem to want to accept it. Best to ignore them.

ypres5 wrote: »

it's almost like some people have their fingers crossed the vaccine won't work despite all evidence.

Klonker wrote: »

Of course this isn't clear from your graph which is why you didn't include a cases graph too as you're purposely trying to muddy the data. Why you'd want to do that I honestly don't know.

SHOW ME! Sorry, I'm a numbers and stats person. Repeatedly telling me won't work, you have to provide some data.

Ireland and Israel's death figs have been more or less in line since last Nov. Long before any vaccines were used. Yes, case numbers are higher but I don't see the sudden change where vaccines kick in. All I'm asking is for someone to show me please.

Scotty #

Deleted User wrote: »

The one with waaaay more cases but the same number of deaths (much lower, and decreasing, CFR) is the one that has over 50% vaccinated. That'd be Israel.

Why isn't there a drop in Israel's CFR when they started vacc's? It hasn't really altered much since last July when Ireland's was 10x worse than Israel's. Now our's is only twice as bad, yet they are the one with the vaccine? Can someone explain?

Hellrazer

Scotty # wrote: »

Why isn't there a drop in Israel's CFR when they started vacc's? It hasn't really altered much since last July when Ireland's was 10x worse than Israel's. Now our's is only twice as bad, yet they are the one with the vaccine? Can someone explain?

Because CFR isn't a good measure to use in a pandemic...it even says it on that graph in the top right corner.

CFR is affected by numerous things namely the amount of testing a country is doing, the under-reporting of cases and / or deaths. The over reporting of deaths ie "died with covid" instead of "died from covid"

Its also a bad indicator because some people are asymptomatic and also tests can give false positives and these are included in the CFR.


IFR is a better indicator as this only based on confirmed infections and is around 0.64% mortality rate of those with confirmed infections with Covid 19.

To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR). CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2. Because nucleic acid testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

Chawosfski

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garda%C3%AD-urge-public-not-to-attend-anti-lockdown-protest-in-cork-1.4502627?mode=amp

Something's not right when the garda are telling people not to attend protests

Scotty #

Hellrazer wrote: »

Because CFR isn't a good measure to use in a pandemic...it even says it on that graph in the top right corner.

CFR is affected by numerous things namely the amount of testing a country is doing, the under-reporting of cases and / or deaths. The over reporting of deaths ie "died with covid" instead of "died from covid"

Its also a bad indicator because some people are asymptomatic and also tests can give false positives and these are included in the CFR.

IFR is a better indicator as this only based on confirmed infections and is around 0.64% mortality rate of those with confirmed infections with Covid 19.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

Do you know where I can find the IFR data for Israel or Ireland? Does it show an obvious difference in the flows pre vaccine and post vaccine?

El_Duderino 09

Ireland due to hit 500,000 vaccinations this weekend. We’re getting there, even if more slowly then we would like.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0306/1201319-covid-19/

Another 11,000 vaccinated on 2march. 12,000 vaccinated the same day previous week so not an improvement. But it’s all progress.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-02-march-2021.pdf

Lots more vaccines promised. We can only hope they arrive.

carr62

So, ive just been invited to a wedding in the uk in September! Any predictions if non essential travel to uk will be allowed by then, without needing to quarantine on return? I think Boris said he hopes the country will reopen in June, wonder if weddings over there will be back to what they were pre covid?

drunkmonkey

Go through Belfast you don't need any pcr test etc, NI&UK hope to have all restrictions gone by the 21st of June.
Our plan seems to be look at Israel in June and then aim to be like them by October.

SnuggyBear

Chawosfski wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garda%C3%AD-urge-public-not-to-attend-anti-lockdown-protest-in-cork-1.4502627?mode=amp

Something's not right when the garda are telling people not to attend protests

Has there ever been evidence of an outdoor superspreader event?

gozunda

Chawosfski wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garda%C3%AD-urge-public-not-to-attend-anti-lockdown-protest-in-cork-1.4502627?mode=amp

Something's not right when the garda are telling people not to attend protests

Because there's a feking pandemic and people have been asked repeatedly not to travel and avoid meeting up in groups.

But no here we go again with the covid deniers, the anti mask wearers and that its all the lizard peoples fault grand meet up. :rolleyes:

We are currently at or close to half a million vaccines - and the number of cases are down - why put a boot into that? And yes it only takes a couple of people to go there and ignore social distancing and mask wearing to go there - then return home to ramp up household transmission ...

Chawosfski

gozunda wrote: »

Because there's a feking pandemic and people have been asked repeatedly not to travel and avoid meeting up in groups.

But no here we go again with the covid deniers, the anti mask wearers and that its all the lizard peoples fault grand meet up. :rolleyes:

We are currently at or close to half a million vaccines - and the number of cases are down - why put a boot into that? And yes it only takes a couple of people to go there and ignore social distancing and mask wearing to go there - then return home to ramp up household transmission ...

Way to have a rant and miss the point..

drunkmonkey

gozunda wrote: »

But no here we go again with the covid deniers, the anti mask wearers and that its all the lizard peoples fault grand meet up. :rolleyes:

That's a bit rich coming from someone who walks around all day assuming their sick because the man on the telly said so.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

SHOW ME! Sorry, I'm a numbers and stats person. Repeatedly telling me won't work, you have to provide some data.

Ireland and Israel's death figs have been more or less in line since last Nov. Long before any vaccines were used. Yes, case numbers are higher but I don't see the sudden change where vaccines kick in. All I'm asking is for someone to show me please.

I have lots of info that proves to me it works i could post it but i couldn’t be arsed engaging in someone who isn’t honest and posts data while hiding the important parts to suit their narrative, as one poster has pointed out to you and caught you out.

You bang on about the experts telling us it won’t be a silver bullet blah blah but i posted a qoute from RTE where experts have confirmed they can see in HCW’s the vaccine works phenomenally but you chose to ignore it.

Your posts are ramblings of an anti vaxxer. Do your country and fellow citizens a favour and take the jab.

Tazz T

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Compare cases (plateaued and even rising here) with deaths (continuing to fall)

gozunda

Chawosfski wrote: »

Way to have a rant and miss the point..

And that "point is?"

But no not a 'rant' - just the facts as they are at this time.

gozunda

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's a bit rich coming from someone who walks around all day assuming their sick because the man on the telly said so.

Do I? And if I believe I'm 'sick' - surely I wouldn't be "walking around all day"?

But who is this man on the telly you talk of? Is he a lizard person as well ?

bucketybuck

gozunda wrote: »

Do I? And if I believe I'm 'sick' - surely I wouldn't be "walking around all day"?

There have been people "sick" with covid that took part in professional football matches, the vast majority of covid sufferers were able to walk around perfectly fine.

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have lots of info that proves to me it works i could post it but i couldn’t be arsed engaging in someone who isn’t honest and posts data while hiding the important parts .

So show me what I've hidden!! Show me ANY data that backs up what you're claiming! If the data has 'proven' as you claim, to have had such an effect then please show me.

You're of the opinion that we're going to be back to 2019 lifestyles within a few months of now. I hope you are right but everything I'm reading from actual health services and organisations says you're wrong and we're going to be dealing with covid for a long time to come. I sincerely hope you are right and they are wrong but I'm having a hard time believing you.

I've shown you why I think you are wrong, now show my why you think you are right.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

So show me what I've hidden!! Show me ANY data that backs up what you're claiming! If the data has 'proven' as you claim, to have had such an effect then please show me.

You're of the opinion that we're going to be back to 2019 lifestyles within a few months of now. I hope you are right but everything I'm reading from actual health services and organisations says you're wrong and we're going to be dealing with covid for a long time to come. I sincerely hope you are right and they are wrong but I'm having a hard time believing you.

I've shown you why I think you are wrong, now show my why you think you are right.

Do you need to be reminded?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116493597&postcount=5824


I never said anything about a few months but by the end of the year a lot of our normalities will return. I don’t care if you believe me or not.. I have no desire to engage in anti Vaxxers and the ramblings they post.

Micky 32

Some positive news for a Saturday morning:


https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1367851449212878856?s=21

Micky 32

Hope this doesn’t burst any bubbles on here

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1367086151018958850?s=21

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Do you need to be reminded?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116493597&postcount=5824


I never said anything about a few months but by the end of the year a lot of our normalities will return. I don’t care if you believe me or not.. I have no desire to engage in anti Vaxxers and the ramblings they post.

So that would be a no, you've nothing to show.

I'm very much pro vaccine.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

So that would be a no, you've nothing to show.

I'm very much pro vaccine.

More lies. If you were you wouldn’t be posting the Shyte you’re posting.

Will you choose to ignore the posts about the oxford vaccine above?

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Hope this doesn’t burst any bubbles on here

We've been through this.... 'interim study' and 'proven' are not the same thing. Not even nearly the same thing.

HansKroenke

Micky 32 wrote: »

Hope this doesn’t burst any bubbles on here

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1367086151018958850?s=21

The findings, from an ongoing surveillance project funded by Pfizer and known as AvonCAP, found that one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, which began to be used in Britain on Dec. 8, 2020, was 71.4% effective from 14 days at preventing symptomatic illness severe enough to result in hospitalisation among patients with a median age of 87 years.

Huge. Get that plan going to unwind all restrictions. All data is pointing towards covid being a paper tiger once vaccines are rolled out.