When will it all end?

Hellrazer

ypres5 wrote: »

the difference between us being hot on the uks heels in reopening depends on whether or not micheals balls drop in the next few months. otherwise expect to see 'new variants' being bandied about a lot

Strange that the UK variant isn't that big an issue in the UK!!!

We failed to hit 100k vaccines for the last 2 weeks and have lowered our target to 80-something for next week. Meanwhile the UK will bang out 500k in a day sometimes. We're very, very far behind them.

HansKroenke

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We failed to hit 100k vaccines for the last 2 weeks and have lowered our target to 80-something for next week. Meanwhile the UK will bang out 500k in a day sometimes. We're very, very far behind them.

If we hit 1m per month for April and May, as is projected, we'll have half the country vaccinated. Come June and July, we'll be there. Looking at how the UK is progressing as compared to its timeline, I have no reason not to be optimistic at this stage that we'll be roaring back to normal come the August Bank Holiday.

thebiglad

Deleted User wrote: »

We failed to hit 100k vaccines for the last 2 weeks and have lowered our target to 80-something for next week. Meanwhile the UK will bang out 500k in a day sometimes. We're very, very far behind them.

You have to look at relative populations - if we did 500k per day we'd be done in a week - its only over 18's after all.

UK is at 40% of 1st jabs and there numbers are falling off a cliff - we need the J&J approved (next week I think) and then up the numbers being vaccinated - we will hit 40% quick enough and then if numbers follow UK the government and NPHET will not be able to keep lockdown (except of course for the new variant excuse)...

Hellrazer

I think its 2.2 million J&J vaccines are supposed to be allocated to Ireland before the end of March.

That would be a game changer if they were all delivered...actually it would probably be game over for Nphet.

El_Duderino 09

Hellrazer wrote: »

Strange that the UK variant isn't that big an issue in the UK!!!

It isn’t?

The uk is in full lockdown since Christmas. They’re beginning to loosen restrictions now. But I think not would be impossible to make the case that the uk variant, or any other variant, isn’t that big an issue in the uk.

Bit cynical

thebiglad wrote: »

You have to look at relative populations - if we did 500k per day we'd be done in a week - its only over 18's after all.

UK is at 40% of 1st jabs and there numbers are falling off a cliff - we need the J&J approved (next week I think) and then up the numbers being vaccinated - we will hit 40% quick enough and then if numbers follow UK the government and NPHET will not be able to keep lockdown (except of course for the new variant excuse)...

It is good that we are next to a country that has broken free of the EU. If the UK was as slow as Ireland and other EU countries (except Hungary) then by the time a significant proportion were vaccinated summer would be here and it would not be clear whether it was the vaccine or better weather keeping the numbers down.

This would lead to restrictions being reimposed in the Autumn "just to be safe" and then low numbers being attributed to those restrictions rather than the vaccines. And so on.

HansKroenke

HansKroenke wrote: »

If we hit 1m per month for April and May, as is projected, we'll have half the country vaccinated. Come June and July, we'll be there. Looking at how the UK is progressing as compared to its timeline, I have no reason not to be optimistic at this stage that we'll be roaring back to normal come the August Bank Holiday.

Where is that projection?
I've seen nonsense about "infrastructure" to be capable of giving out that many shots but we've consistently gotten fewer doses than expected every week. What's to suggest things are going to suddenly start going more smoothly?
And 2m injections would be about a quarter of the population vaccinated, since it's 2 shots.

The government are being both ****e about procuring vaccines and overly cautious about their effectiveness. The UK's reopening schedule is unambitious given their progress with the vaccines but it gives them a chance to under-promise and over-deliver.
Our shower of useless ****s will use any excuse to not open up and keep their foot on the brakes. If we could actually get the vaccines rolled out in a timely manner then they would have no cover to do it.

With the seasonality seen last year and most over 75s vaccinated by the end of April there is little reason to not be fully re-opened by mid-to-late June. But some arseholes will focus on case numbers once deaths plummet and use that as justification.

Elessar

Hellrazer wrote: »

I think its 2.2 million J&J vaccines are supposed to be allocated to Ireland before the end of March.

That would be a game changer if they were all delivered...actually it would probably be game over for Nphet.

Sorry to burst that bubble but it's 2.2m in total this year and from the Journal:

"If everything with supply chains and coordination here on the ground goes to plan Ireland should receive up to 150,000 doses of the vaccine per month in April, May and June."

We'll still be relying, in the majority, on the Pfizer vaccine to get the vast majority of people done for the next while afaik.

Hellrazer

Elessar wrote: »

Sorry to burst that bubble but it's 2.2m in total this year and from the Journal:

"If everything with supply chains and coordination here on the ground goes to plan Ireland should receive up to 150,000 doses of the vaccine per month in April, May and June."

We'll still be relying, in the majority, on the Pfizer vaccine to get the vast majority of people done for the next while afaik.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0301/1199970-johnson-and-johnson-covid-19-vaccine/


This article says

200 million J&J vaccines have been promised before the end of March to the EU and Ireland is set to receive 2.2 million doses

That's a pain if its only 150k per month.

thebiglad

thebiglad wrote: »

You have to look at relative populations - if we did 500k per day we'd be done in a week - its only over 18's after all.

Yeah yeah. They're at 23.3 million doses for 65 million people, we're at 493k for 5 million. They've done more than 3 times per capita and their rate is still more than double ours, the gap is widening, not narrowing.

Hellrazer wrote: »

I think its 2.2 million J&J vaccines are supposed to be allocated to Ireland before the end of March.

That would be a game changer if they were all delivered...actually it would probably be game over for Nphet.

It would be a game changer but I'll do a 50 quid bet with anyone who thinks that we'll have 2.2 million doses of a vaccine that we currently have zero of by the end of the month. For charity of course. I'd also offer to sell them some magic beans.

Elessar

Hellrazer wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0301/1199970-johnson-and-johnson-covid-19-vaccine/


This article says



That's a pain if its only 150k per month.

Yeah I think that rte report might be a bit mixed up. Believe me it would be common knowledge at this point if 2.2 million 1-shot vaccines would be due here in 3 weeks

https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-5369624-Mar2021/

thebiglad

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah yeah. They're at 23.3 million doses for 65 million people, we're at 493k for 5 million. They've done more than 3 times per capita and their rate is still more than double ours, the gap is widening, not narrowing.

The important number is that they are at 40% of adults with 1st jab - the population to be vaccinated is not 65m - under 18's not to be counted, Scotland, Wales and NI citizens are not included in the English number.

I am not disputing that EU/Ireland are inefficient with the vaccine roll out and insist on a 2 jab approach despite evidence it is not necessary and the rate of 1st jab administered could therefore be increased.

Not confident when we hit 40%/50%/60% that they won't find another reason to maintain the restrictions - they are scared of their own shadow at this point and all the negative news over the last 12 months has enough of the population on edge that they'll not risk it.

Said before - they need to change the messaging as are English alongside the vaccination strategy.

ujjjjjjjjj

thebiglad wrote: »

The important number is that they are at 40% of adults with 1st jab - the population to be vaccinated is not 65m - under 18's not to be counted, Scotland, Wales and NI citizens are not included in the English number.

I am not disputing that EU/Ireland are inefficient with the vaccine roll out and insist on a 2 jab approach despite evidence it is not necessary and the rate of 1st jab administered could therefore be increased.

Not confident when we hit 40%/50%/60% that they won't find another reason to maintain the restrictions - they are scared of their own shadow at this point and all the negative news over the last 12 months has enough of the population on edge that they'll not risk it.

Said before - they need to change the messaging as are English alongside the vaccination strategy.

The need for a line in the sand and a defined end point (be that all over 65's, over 50's or even over 18's) needs to be discussed now.

I like BOJO's approach of 21st June being the end for all legal restrictions, there may be health advice after this date of course.

Ireland needs to have a line in the sand and a target date for all legal restrictions being lifted.......like the UK there can be caveats and conditions but while the UK population seems to be broadly happy now that the line in the sand is drawn the same can't be said for Ireland with a wider sense of disquiet about lockdown here.

Lundstram

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions. There will be a small cohort of diehards who will want the status quo so let them hide away indefinitely if they wish.

It's going to be a good summer.

El_Duderino 09

Lundstram wrote: »

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions. There will be a small cohort of diehards who will want the status quo so let them hide away indefinitely if they wish.

It's going to be a good summer.

Yeah the summer will be great. The questions are about what will happen next winter and whether restriction will need to be reimposed or not.

eoinbn

HansKroenke wrote: »

If we hit 1m per month for April and May, as is projected, we'll have half the country vaccinated. Come June and July, we'll be there. Looking at how the UK is progressing as compared to its timeline, I have no reason not to be optimistic at this stage that we'll be roaring back to normal come the August Bank Holiday.

The Q1 and April targets will both be missed by some margin - Q1 because AZ are hopeless and April because the government have an unrealistic target. Hopefully by May we should be averaging over 1m doses a month. However that depends on a factory that has never produced an mRNA vaccine producing 400k vaccines a day. That is well within the max output of BioNtech's new plant but as we are learning every day with AZ there are no guarantees. The government will probably know in the next few weeks how many doses we can expect from Pfizer/BioNtech in April. It could vary from 300k to 500k. If it is far below the 500k mark then the numbers for May and June also come into question.

However even if we don't hit the Q2 target the country will be in a much better place by the end of May.

bucketybuck

Lundstram wrote: »

It won't be the government's choice when we open up, once the UK reopen fully in June, that's game, set and match for the vast majority of Irish people adhering to restrictions.

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

bucketybuck

eoinbn wrote: »

However even if we don't hit the Q2 target the country will be in a much better place by the end of May.

This is something that people seem to be forgetting, probably because the government don't seem to want to acknowledge it either.

I still see people referencing case numbers and numbers of people vaccinated by this or that date, but really those figures are unimportant.

If vaccines work and are given to vulnerable people, then deaths rates will fall long long before a majority of the population have been vaccinated. And if the death rates have flatlined then restrictions should be ended in line with that.

I couldn't give a **** how many people still aren't vaccinated if people are no longer dying from this virus and will have no patience for any chicken littles still scared and crying about the future.

Lundstram

bucketybuck wrote: »

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

We've already seen a number of businesses defying measures by opening up, they didn't have the majority of public support so there wasn't much fuss once they were closed again by Gardai. This will change big time in the summer, lots more will defy restrictions if indeed there is any in place but public support will be on their side this time.

Make no mistake about it, our reopening roadmap is pretty much the UK's.

It's all about deaths and hospital capacity, them numbers will be miniscule come June.

ujjjjjjjjj

bucketybuck wrote: »

If only that was true, but the restrictions aren't just about people travelling more than 5km or not visiting their families, the worst of them involve businesses that simply are not allowed to open, and can legally be shut down by the guards for daring to open.

Simply not adhering to restrictions is easy and a lot of people are already doing that. Opening businesses in direct defiance of restrictions is another thing altogether, and unfortunately that is far more important than how many people travel 10k to the beach.

Think the key thing is the government will have to grow a pair and just sideline NPHET..................

For me the big change is moving to end all legal restrictions and move to public health advice only. You can take it or leave it.

The government needs to rapidly put NPHET back into the health advice sphere......

ujjjjjjjjj

Lundstram wrote: »

We've already seen a number of businesses defying measures by opening up, they didn't have the majority of public support so there wasn't much fuss once they were closed again by Gardai. This will change big time in the summer, lots more will defy restrictions if indeed there is any in place but public support will be on their side this time.

Make no mistake about it, our reopening roadmap is pretty much the UK's.

It's all about deaths and hospital capacity, them numbers will be miniscule come June.

Thank goodness for once for NI - NI will force things to move along here as it's untenable to have huge differences in restrictions either side of the border.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah the summer will be great. The questions are about what will happen next winter and whether restriction will need to be reimposed or not.

Going by one of the headlines in the UK today there might be a cause for concern in winter, as all the circulating viruses have been stopped there's a chance we have now lost immunity to a host of them.
'‘Population immunity’ to flu and other viruses may have been impacted by Covid health measures, government adviser says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-summer-holiday-winter-susan-hopkins-b1813564.html

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

eoinbn

bucketybuck wrote: »

This is something that people seem to be forgetting, probably because the government don't seem to want to acknowledge it either.

I still see people referencing case numbers and numbers of people vaccinated by this or that date, but really those figures are unimportant.

If vaccines work and are given to vulnerable people, then deaths rates will fall long long before a majority of the population have been vaccinated. And if the death rates have flatlined then restrictions should be ended in line with that.

I couldn't give a **** how many people still aren't vaccinated if people are no longer dying from this virus and will have no patience for any chicken littles still scared and crying about the future.

What you aren't considering there is variants. If we open up fully with millions of people still unvaccinated then it will likely spread like wildfire increasing the chance of variants. We obviously can't stay locked up forever but it might be wise to be cautious for a few extra weeks.
We will have a lot more information from Israel, the UK and the US by the time it comes to make those decisions. The US opening up will be very varied so it could be the most useful to watch.

bucketybuck

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Going by one of the headlines in the UK today there might be a cause for concern in winter, as all the circulating viruses have been stopped there's a chance we have now lost immunity to a host of them.
'‘Population immunity’ to flu and other viruses may have been impacted by Covid health measures, government adviser says"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-summer-holiday-winter-susan-hopkins-b1813564.html

The law of unintended consequences springs to mind. The flu is now a novel virus when it returns:(

The flu changes every year and some years they get the prediction slightly wrong when making vaccines which leads to more deaths than usual. That really reads like someone looking for any kind of doom and gloom to hang their hats on. If legal restrictions are gone by the winter but public transport (and I've a feeling there'll be an underlying reluctance to to mix as much once everyone lets loose over summer) is still even 20% below capacity compared to before that'll keep flu cases down a lot. Some people will be considerate and wear masks when they have sniffles which along with improved handwashing will keep flu down a bit.

BringBackMick

the next thing that will surface is that we are facing into a deadly winter 2021/2022 as other flu and respiratory viruses spike and take advantage of our reduced immunity.

Expect this to be a major player in prolonging the unravelling of restrictions.

Micky 32

bucketybuck wrote: »

Which comes back to the point that certain posters couldn't wrap their heads around a few days ago.

When covid is done there will be other public health threats, and lockdowns have now been normalised as a way to deal with them.

No certain posters have more cop on not to think such a doom and gloom scenario is going to happen. Businesses closing every winter and 5km limits is pure fantasy because of the flu.

Micky 32

BringBackMick wrote: »

the next thing that will surface is that we are facing into a deadly winter 2021/2022 as other flu and respiratory viruses spike and take advantage of our reduced immunity.

Expect this to be a major player in prolonging the unravelling of restrictions.

Does flu immunity really wane that much? I’m out and about a lot and haven’t caught the flu in 10 years.

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

Does flu immunity really wane that much? I’m out and about a lot and haven’t caught the flu in 10 years.

You could have been asymptomatic spreading your flu all over the place.