When will it all end?

opinionated3

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Surely the vaccine will be rolled out to the vulnerable in a few months and then back to normal?

All finished in may?

Tbh that would have been my belief too, but so called experts seem hell bent on coming up with reasons why that won't happen

Cerveza

We will have construction back the end of the month followed by schools. Non essential retail be back end of February. Restaurants and gastro pubs back for Paddy’s day. We are on the home straight.

CorkRed93

Cerveza wrote: »

We will have construction back the end of the month followed by schools. Non essential retail be back end of February. Restaurants and gastro pubs back for Paddy’s day. We are on the home straight.

Few people I know running restaurants/pubs expecting May opening at best. Not a chance they'll have them open for a paddys day pissup

Cerveza

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Few people I know running restaurants/pubs expecting May opening at best. Not a chance they'll have them open for a paddys day pissup

Substantial meal only, wet pubs won’t be open for a knees up until May

GT89

GT89 wrote: »

There is no flu cases because everyone is masked and social distancing

Covid cases are on the up because people aren't wearing masks and social distancing

Covid is more contagious clearly.

As for this year, there were 5 cases in Ireland on June 21st 2020, and only 100 or so in Germany. At that stage it looked like it was dead. The debate was opening up the "wet" pubs. Then July saw an increase to about 100 at the end, iirc correctly, then it stayed there or thereabouts ( maybe 200) until late October when in increased significantly. Thats all to do with seasonality.

We can assume then that the summer R value is 1 or lower. With a vaccine stopping transmission shielding half the population it will be 0.5 or lower. Which means it may well die out in Summer, which doesn't mean it won't reappear. (The only possible flaw here is the new strain and the usefulness of transmission. )

We can use that time to continue to vaccinate and if we get >80% the virus won't reappear.

Whiplash85

I cant see anything before Easter I'm afraid. I just think number 1 case numbers will remain at a high level and take some time to go down to sub 4 figure numbers. Number 2 after a severe bout of lockdown fatigue which is Easter Sunday and Easter Monday have potential to be like Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in terms of family get togethers and reconnecting again. Do I think its right. Of course not. You need the hard medicine in moderation when cases are controllable. Softer restrictions so as to avoid pent up demand. We are where we are due to the fact that we have had longest and most restrictive lockdowns in Europe. If what I predict re level 5 until after Easter comes to pass (and there is good reason to think it will) then we will have had level 5 for 21 weeks out of 24. That is just insane when you think about it like that. There were alternatives too that would not necessarily have lead to doomsday scenarios as some would seem to believe. Those same people would have argued that we should have been under level 5 restrictions for the 24 out of 24 weeks.

Ray Donovan

Cerveza wrote: »

Hospitality including wet pubs will be fully open by May and none of that substantial meal mythology either. Stools back at the counter. We just need to keep it in our panties for a few more weeks.

Two weeks to flatten the curve

El_Duderino 09

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Surely the vaccine will be rolled out to the vulnerable in a few months and then back to normal?

All finished in may?

I can see the appeal to this kind of hopeless optimism, but the disappointment when the reality happens must be crushing every time.

Why would you do it to you yourself?

Cerveza

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Two weeks to flatten the curve

Pity they wouldn’t flatten the pup in two weeks and get people back working.

Whiplash85

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Two weeks to flatten the curve

They have flattened the curve alright albeit on the wrong axis.

begbysback

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I can see the appeal to this kind of hopeless optimism, but the disappointment when the reality happens must be crushing every time.

Why would you do it to you yourself?

Why not? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated then lockdown cannot be justified, case numbers become irrelevant.

Le Bruise

kravmaga wrote: »

In my opinion this year is bollixed also, we will not reach herd immunity until 2022 according to the WHO sources.

Travel industry and trade will continue to be badly affected until 2023 or a worldwide passport for health is brought into play. Michael O'Leary form Ryanair has publicly stated that 2023 is when travel trade will get back to pre-covid volumes.

Covid-19 is a variant of the SARS virus, dont think Covid-19 will ever be totally eliminated , we will just learn to live with it.

The WHO are talking globally with regard to herd immunity. Domestically we'll be back to semi-normality far sooner.

A large portion of 2021 might be bollixed for international travel and it'll probably be well into 2022 and even 2023 before consumer confidence returns to pre-COVID levels.

Agree that'll never be totally eliminated, as viruses rarely (if ever) are!

El_Duderino 09

begbysback wrote: »

Why not? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated then lockdown cannot be justified, case numbers become irrelevant.

Is that honestly the way you think it’ll go or is it just what you want to happen?

plodder

begbysback wrote: »

Why not? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated then lockdown cannot be justified, case numbers become irrelevant.

Yes, hospitalisations and ICU numbers should be the main criteria, assuming covid deaths are squashed within a couple of months. I'm happy to put my neck out and say things will be substantially better by the Summer, though I think it is dependent on restrictions working effectively until then.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Is that honestly the way you think it’ll go or is it just what you want to happen?

well, SAGE in the UK suggest that hospitalisations will fall by 90% when the vulnerable groups are vaccinated by end Feb, so the justification for lockdowns (ie. protect the health services) will be much less

I think that they will move the goalposts at that stage to justify longer restrictions, but based on the original rationale for the lockdowns, yes, we should open up

Quazzie

Deleted User wrote: »

well, SAGE in the UK suggest that hospitalisations will fall by 90% when the vulnerable groups are vaccinated by end Feb, so the justification for lockdowns (ie. protect the health services) will be much less

I think that they will move the goalposts at that stage to justify longer restrictions, but based on the original rationale for the lockdowns, yes, we should open up

Why do you think the governement WANT lockdowns?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

well, SAGE in the UK suggest that hospitalisations will fall by 90% when the vulnerable groups are vaccinated by end Feb, so the justification for lockdowns (ie. protect the health services) will be much less

I think that they will move the goalposts at that stage to justify longer restrictions, but based on the original rationale for the lockdowns, yes, we should open up

So we’re agreed that it doesn’t actually work like that and there’s more to it then vaccinating the vulnerable and go back to normal?

You anticipate the government moving the goalposts. What will the new goal be? Has it occurred to you that protecting the health service is the main goal as it presents the biggest risk, but it’s not the only problem?

Clonmel1000

Le Bruise wrote: »

The WHO are talking globally with regard to herd immunity. Domestically we'll be back to semi-normality far sooner.

A large portion of 2021 might be bollixed for international travel and it'll probably be well into 2022 and even 2023 before consumer confidence returns to pre-COVID levels.

Agree that'll never be totally eliminated, as viruses rarely (if ever) are!

I’ll be travelling this summer for one.

mcsean2163

opinionated3 wrote: »

Tbh that would have been my belief too, but so called experts seem hell bent on coming up with reasons why that won't happen

Yep, I know some people who love working from home and would probably be delighted to do so for years to come and others whose businesses are destroyed and in one instance loans secured against their house.

Allowing the 54,000 back for Christmas seems to have been an epic mistake. I know people in government jobs that came back and didn't quarantine for two weeks so imagine there was a huge portion that just did what they liked.

In saying that, once the old and vulnerable are vaccinated, it's time to move on. Four months should be more than enough. Israel has already done 25% of their popular.

Whoever wants to work from home should not be allowed to keep the country shut. The vaccine is way more effective than the flu vaccine, so hopefully all open in may and no more talk of wet pubs and new normals.

21 people under 45 died from covid19 in Ireland in 2020. Of course that's sad but typically 4 times that number die from car crashes in Ireland and the world doesn't stop.

It's 100% not fair in children to ban sports, school, etc.

If it's not all wrapped up by may, I'll be really upset

niallo27

Quazzie wrote: »

Why do you think the governement WANT lockdowns?

I am not sure tbh, why did we have the longest and harshest lockdown in Europe when our figures were in single figures. Are they afraid of NPHET, NPHET will recommend lockdowns long after most of the population have been vaccinated, we both know this.

Quazzie

niallo27 wrote: »

I am not sure tbh, why did we have the longest and harshest lockdown in Europe when our figures were in single figures.

Because we have one of the worst healthcare systems in Europe. We're not prepared for anything like this. Last year at the start of all this we had 225 ICU beds. Last night there was 176 people in ICU with COVID, and it was still rising. It's perfectly clear that the harsh lockdowns were because they were needed to prevent these kind of figures happening last year when it would have crippled the health system

niallo27

Quazzie wrote: »

Because we have one of the worst healthcare systems in Europe. We're not prepared for anything like this. Last year at the start of all this we had 225 ICU beds. Last night there was 176 people in ICU with COVID, and it was still rising. It's perfectly clear that the harsh lockdowns were because they were needed to prevent these kind of figures happening last year when it would have crippled the health system

Which is why I think we will still have the harshest restrictions even after most are vaccinated.

Paddygreen

Quazzie wrote: »

Because we have one of the worst healthcare systems in Europe. We're not prepared for anything like this. Last year at the start of all this we had 225 ICU beds. Last night there was 176 people in ICU with COVID, and it was still rising. It's perfectly clear that the harsh lockdowns were because they were needed to prevent these kind of figures happening last year when it would have crippled the health system

The HSE sector of frontline in the global war on Covid19 is particularly grim, harrowing, spine chilling, sobering, dire, a hopeless mess a bit like Verdun or the Somme. Only a matter of time before General Tony sends them over the top.

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

Which is why I think we will still have the harshest restrictions even after most are vaccinated.

You think people will adhere to restrictions after most people are vaccinated,not a bloody chance

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You think people will adhere to restrictions after most people are vaccinated,not a bloody chance

Maybe. As a whole, our reluctance to adhere to the rules is the reason the numbers are so high.

I think most people adhere to most of the rules, most of the time. But some people just take the p1ss and plenty of people only stuck to the rules when it suits them anyway.

There’s a bravado attached to breaking the rules. Just look at the supportive reactions to posters announcing they broke the rules when the pubs were open.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Maybe. As a whole, our reluctance to adhere to the rules is the reason the numbers are so high.

I think most people adhere to most of the rules, most of the time. But some people just take the p1ss and plenty of people only stuck to the rules when it suits them anyway.

There’s a bravado attached to breaking the rules. Just look at the supportive reactions to posters announcing they broke the rules when the pubs were open.

Most people are adhering to restrictions at the moment but if we are still under harsh restrictions after a vaccine is given out to the majority of people you will see people not sticking to them

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Most people are adhering to restrictions at the moment but if we are still under harsh restrictions after a vaccine is given out to the majority of people you will see people not sticking to them

And what will you do? Will you follow the rules at that stage?

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

And what will you do? Will you follow the rules at that stage?

No i wont if i am vaccinated. I will still wear a face mask in shops etc if thats required but i will travel where i want to in the country.Will visit family and friends also

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No i wont if i am vaccinated. I will still wear a face mask in shops etc if thats required but i will travel where i want to in the country.Will visit family and friends also

And there’s the problem.

I’m not telling you what to do, but do you acknowledge that your behaviour would be part of the problem and would help prolong the whole thing?

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

And there’s the problem.

I’m not telling you what to do, but do you acknowledge that your behaviour would be part of the problem and would help prolong the whole thing?

We have to get back to some sort of normality and when most of the people are vaccinated we will see sort of normality resume.We can't be negative like you.