When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That's fine. It really is fine. Do whatever helps to get you through this tough time.

But why go to a thread dedicated to discussing the situation if you can only intellectually consider one of the possible outcomes?

I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

How are you finding it all El_Dude?

francogarbanzo

gozunda wrote: »

Wow abusive relationship infograhic - we've reached new heights :rolleyes:

Chsxt not this ****e again. Bar the extensive hyperbole in that - eg "make it illegal to leave your house except to exercise, buy groceries, or for medical reasons" That's simply bs. You can leave your house for work and for a long list of other reasons. Of course there's been restrictions- we're in the midst of a pandemic - and still mopping up after the fun and frolics of Christmas. Our restrictions have been less than the UK but noooooo we're the worst in the world and its neeeeever going to end!

There is no level zero because that means we're back to normal with covid at worst existing as a background disease which will be primarilly controlled by vaccination

So yeah even more desperate doom and gloom and wailing we're in permanent lockdown'!

Go on then. Refute it.

El_Duderino 09

JDD wrote: »

Tell me this though, what makes you think that we will have restrictions next winter?

A. Do you expect that, come October, a good chunk of the population will yet be offered a vaccine?

Or

B. If they are offered a vaccine, do you think a good chunk will not take it up?

Or

C. In a situation where 80%+ of the country is vaccinated, do you foresee that the virus will continue to circulate among the unvaccinated population (which will majority be under-18s) entailing hospitalisations to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

D. Do you think that the virus will continue to circulate among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated entailing hospitalisations from both cohorts to the point that restrictions will need to be introduced?

Or

E. If it is none of the above, are you basing your middle-case/worst-case scenario on vaccine resistant variants?

Just interested. I don't think I'm immediately going to a best-case scenario. Everything that has happened so far, apart from the ****show that is the vaccine supply, has been telegraphed a mile off to all but the most blinkered. I'm wondering why now - after researching the vaccines and possibility of variants - that what I see as a realistic end to this is considered the best case scenario. I feel my view is very much grounded in reality, but I'm open to being educated.

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can discuss worse case outcomes without dwelling or believing they may happen.

How are you finding it all El_Dude?

You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You literally said you can't consider some of the bad situations. And that's fine. I just don't get why you would go to a thread which is about considering the options and not just the good outcomes.

I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. I suppose i have headroom to consider the outcomes i want to happen and the outcomes I don't want to happen. I'm mostly just curious about what will actually happen and that's why i try to separate the things i do and don't want to happen from the things that can and can't happen and their likelihoods.

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

AdamD

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

Life is personal

El_Duderino 09

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

Ginger n' Lemon hasn't posted in a few days but Micky has taken over their slot.

SilentGreenx32

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

Exactly. Arguing for arguments sake.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Curiosity about others mostly and what they think. I'm especially interested in how others are finding the pandemic. It's impact is different depending on personal circumstance, outlook, and especially 'inlook'. It's brought some people to their knees and lifted others up.

Has it lifted some people up? In what ways?

How are you finding it?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You're extrapolating too much from the data we have. The data doesn't say anything about restrictions likelihood, it's about transmissions and hospitalisations and deaths, for countries while in lockdown conditions.

When you say that "by next autumn/winter there won’t be too many people getting sick. What exactly is "too many" and do you think your "too many" is the same as Micheal Martin's too many?

Fact is that I doubt you and MM would agree on the meaning of "too many" and we don't know how it will work out when most adults are vaccinated in winter and we don't have any restrictions. Maybe it will be fine and the relevant numbers will stay low. Maybe it won't.

Round and round we go. I’ll make it simple and more straight forward for you. We can keep going all day if you like. Vaccines work and prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death. There’s a good chance prevents a lot of transmission.

You have the masses inoculated = no hospitalizations and deaths = little or no restrictions or lockdowns.

JDD

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

No, I do get what you're saying El Dude.

There are a lot of things we don't know yet. We don't know whether supply will genuinely pick up to a point that we have enough vaccines to vaccinated 80% of the adult population by September. We don't know if we even do get those vaccines whether the infrastructure is there to get them out and into peoples arms. While if you had to take a bet on whether or not we'll get a large uptake of the vaccine, you'd probably bet on yes, the unknown factor is the 18 to 35 year olds.

If we do get to herd immunity I'm not really envisioning more restrictions. I simply can't see a scenario where even if the virus rips through the population that there will be a level of hospitalisations that will warrant reintroduction of restrictions. It will rip through the under-18s, but the level of their hospitalisations is miniscule, even with being in school from September to Christmas. It will rip though the 20% (maybe more? maybe less?) unvaccinated adults, but that would be a population of 800k where 80% of their close contacts are vaccinated. But I suppose, like anything, it's a possibility that there will be an unknown variable here that ends up with more hospitalisations than we might expect.

I'm not really countenancing vaccine-resistant variants here. OF COURSE there will be restrictions, probably lockdowns, if we get one of those variants, and for a lot longer than just next winter. But that seems to be a separate discussion to me, a hypothetical discussion along the lines of what if another pandemic happens.

If we take the possibility of vaccine resistant variants out of the discussion, what remains is when we think this will end, taking into account our current situation and the facts that we know right now.

the kelt

AdamD wrote: »

This thread is just one person obsessively responding to anybody who will give him an argument

And then thinks the person you’re talking about is someone else

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Round and round we go. I’ll make simple and more straight forward to you. We can keep going all day if you like. Vaccines work and prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death. There’s a good chance prevents a lot of transmission.

You have the masses inoculated = no hospitalizations and deaths = little or no restrictions.

Do you want me to point out he error in that post? They're subtle but they're significant.

Vaccines work, but they don't prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death: They reduce it at a population level, they do not prevent it. If they prevented it then there wouldn't be any issue about next winter. To what extent will they reduce hospitalisation and death? We don't know yet. Do you know to what extent they will reduce hospitalisations and death in winter with a population without restrictions?

IF we have "no hospitalizations and deaths" then obviously there wold be no need for restrictions. But the first part isn't known yet.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you want me to point out he error in that post? They're subtle but they're significant.

Vaccines work, but they don't prevent sickness and hospitalizations and death: They reduce it at a population level, they do not prevent it. If they prevented it then there wouldn't be any issue about next winter. To what extent will they reduce hospitalisation and death? We don't know yet. Do you know to what extent they will reduce hospitalisations and death in winter with a population without restrictions?

IF we have "no hospitalizations and deaths" then obviously there wold be no need for restrictions. But the first part isn't known yet.

Yes they do. You need to research more on the vaccines. You didn’t even know that we’ll be vaccinating 250k a week, shows your knowledge on the subject.

Vaccines will reduce the hospitalizations and deaths to the point we’ll be going back to normal. Full stop.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Has it lifted some people up? In what ways?

How are you finding it?

Gave them a renewed sense of what's important to them and also has taken away some pressures such a commuting and allowed for spending more time with family. I think lots of people have found positives in it. That doesn't mean they don't want their old life to return, just that adjusting to this one hasn't been much of a challenge.

I'm up and down with it. Some days I feel my life is like a kind of shadow and other days I'm positive. There's a sense of loss definitely and now and then I feel trapped but mostly I'm ok

Hellrazer

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The questions are phrased to suggest you only want an answer to one but I'll give my best answer to each one.

A. Yes - a good chunk isn't very specific but, yes, a good chunk will be vaccinated by October.
B. I suppose there will be a cohort who will refuse it or be lazy/disorganised/drag their feet about getting it. Hard to know how large that cohort will be. Some countries suggest 30% might refuse and research suggests the number is much lower in Ireland. I don't suppose we know whether we will have given it to the willing people by October and we can start chasing those who are reluctant or not.
C. As it stands, we won't have 80% of the country vaccinated by next winter. We might have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by next winter. But the answer you the question is: I don't know. Do you know? 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the total population. That's great but will it be enough to allow no restrictions and keep deaths low? I don't know. Do you know?
D Yes it will continue to circulate amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated, to varying degrees. Whether that will result in being able to not reimpose restrictions is literally the question I've said I don't know the answer to.
E. We don't know what will happen with mutations. They are an unknown element in the equation. Any mutations might be fine, they might not be fine. Do you know whether there will be mutations or what will happen with mutations?

This is the problem - there are too many dont knows with this virus. No one knows whats going to happen with it in the furture.

JDD

I have a colleague at work who wants the option to work full time from home when restrictions lift (while attending the office for essential purposes). She has found lockdown a revelation - she loves the extra time back and the fact that she can drop off/pick up kids, and doesn't miss the office at all. Now, I'm not saying that she'd choose to be in lockdown forever over being back in the office five days a week with everything open, but definitely lockdown has been mostly positive for her.

Plumbthedepths

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

El_Duderino 09

JDD wrote: »

No, I do get what you're saying El Dude.

There are a lot of things we don't know yet. We don't know whether supply will genuinely pick up to a point that we have enough vaccines to vaccinated 80% of the adult population by September. We don't know if we even do get those vaccines whether the infrastructure is there to get them out and into peoples arms. While if you had to take a bet on whether or not we'll get a large uptake of the vaccine, you'd probably bet on yes, the unknown factor is the 18 to 35 year olds.

If we do get to herd immunity I'm not really envisioning more restrictions. I simply can't see a scenario where even if the virus rips through the population that there will be a level of hospitalisations that will warrant reintroduction of restrictions. It will rip through the under-18s, but the level of their hospitalisations is miniscule, even with being in school from September to Christmas. It will rip though the 20% (maybe more? maybe less?) unvaccinated adults, but that would be a population of 800k where 80% of their close contacts are vaccinated. But I suppose, like anything, it's a possibility that there will be an unknown variable here that ends up with more hospitalisations than we might expect.

I'm not really countenancing vaccine-resistant variants here. OF COURSE there will be restrictions, probably lockdowns, if we get one of those variants, and for a lot longer than just next winter. But that seems to be a separate discussion to me, a hypothetical discussion along the lines of what if another pandemic happens.

If we take the possibility of vaccine resistant variants out of the discussion, what remains is when we think this will end, taking into account our current situation and the facts that we know right now.

I'm not really sure where we disagree. I don't pretend to know about vaccine supply thought I'm assuming it will pick up. Will it pick up enough to have 80% of the adult population vaccinated by September or October or in time for winter? I don't know. I presume it will but I don't know.

Isn't herd immunity kind of definitionally the point at which we wouldn't need restrictions? But i don't think anyone is suggesting we will reach herd immunity (estimated at 70-80% of total population) before winter. They have started vaccination testing on some ages younger than 18 but they don't expect to have approval to start vaccinating some under 18s until the end of they year.

The bit in bold is the question which remains unanswered. You assert that it will be minuscule but that doesn't mean that we know the answer to it. IF it's miniscule, then there's no problem. But simply saying it will be miniscule doesn't mean it will be minuscule.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yes they do. You need to research more on the vaccines. You didn’t even know that we’ll be vaccinating 250k a week, shows your knowledge on the subject.

Vaccines will reduce the hospitalizations and deaths to the point we’ll be going back to normal. Full stop.

Well, the link you gave me said they "could" reach 250,000 per week. Let's not overstate the case by saying they "will" reach 250,000 per week.

Well, If you've written "full stop" at the end of the sentence then I suppose the issue can't be discussed any further. In reality, only time will tell whether things go great in the winter or if they don't go to plan and we need restrictions again. Hopefully the former.

El_Duderino 09

Hellrazer wrote: »

This is the problem - there are too many dont knows with this virus. No one knows whats going to happen with it in the furture.

That's not far off precisely what I've been saying.

mightyreds

CDC allowing vaccinated people meet indoors without masks and social distancing, those unknowns seem to be unravelling quickly

El_Duderino 09

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

That's brilliant news!

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Well, the link you gave me said they "could" reach 250,000 per week. Let's not overstate the case by saying they "will" reach 250,000 per week.

Well, If you've written "full stop" at the end of the sentence then I suppose the issue can't be discussed any further. In reality, only time will tell whether things go great in the winter or if they don't go to plan and we need restrictions again. Hopefully the former.

I say full stop with respect. With my own research and in my opinion lockdowns are coming to an end. Nothing is 100% set in stone but once we are all vaccinated lockdowms will become unlikely.

aido79

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

OMG disappointing to some I imagine.......https://mobile.twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1368955846483402753?prefetchtimestamp=1615222293720

The only problem with that is that there are too many idiots in this country who will spoil it for everyone else by saying that they are vaccinated when they are actually anti vaccination and have no intention of getting the vaccine just so they can use it as a reason not to wear a mask. It will be a breach of their civil liberties if they are even questioned on it..

HansKroenke

aido79 wrote: »

The only problem with that is that there are too many idiots in this country who will spoil it for everyone else by saying that they are vaccinated when they are actually anti vaccination and have no intention of getting the vaccine just so they can use it as a reason not to wear a mask. It will be a breach of their civil liberties if they are even questioned on it..

Yeah, who cares about civil liberties?

aido79

HansKroenke wrote: »

Yeah, who cares about civil liberties?

I do. I just don't have a lot of time for self centred people who use it as an excuse to put others in danger.

HansKroenke

aido79 wrote: »

I do. I just don't have a lot of time for self centred people who use it as an excuse to put others in danger.

"Granny killers" is it?

Off your high horse.

aido79

HansKroenke wrote: »

"Granny killers" is it?

Off your high horse.

No just people, possibly like yourself, who don't believe mask wearing helps stop the spread of covid19.