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When will it all end?
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We're going down by about 20% a week on new infections. Obviously that 20% will probably go down to 10-15% once the schools open fully, but even with that caveat we should be under 100 new infections a day average by the end of April.
IF vaccine supply keeps up, we should have all over 70's and all vulnerable vaccinated with at least their first jab by end April.
I don't see any reason, any reason AT ALL, in those circumstances, why retail, hairdressers and beauticians could not open up on 1 June. If Paddy Power did odds on it, I'd be putting €50 down that retail will open, along with restaurants and gastropubs, after the June Bank Holiday.
There is no reason why non essential retail with a street entrance can not be open for click and collect at present.0 -
CollectThat wrote: »You think we shouldn't open anything until late summer/autumn We had hairdressers up last summer way earlier than that. Why would we be closed down longer now?
Additionally do you have any suggestions for how we should all payback the massive debt we are taking for these lockdowns? For a virus where the vulnerable will be vaccinated long before that
It could happen a lot sooner. Vaccines will be ramping up, numbers dropping etc. it’s only a ball park estimate given current situation. But if they succeed getting the vaccines out things could change a lot.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »I went to the mountains to hike on Sunday , well out of my 5km. I didn't meet any checkpoints. It was the best day I had in ages, and lifted my mood hugely. It was the first time I felt a sense of freedom since Christmas. I also went last week to my hairdresser. She has a private studio separate to her house. She only ever had one client at a time. Masks, visors, perspex, hand sanitizer, contactless payment, all available and were used by us. Windows were also open so I kept my jacket on.
Her husband is a taxi driver in a rural location so has been on PUP for a year now. They have kids and a mortgage so I was very happy to get my hair done and to support her.
I love reading replies like this!
Sensible people, making their own decisions - with calculated risks!
My wife is struggling. Working from home a year. We have 2 large dogs, no kids and a small campervan (which I have only just taxed and insured AGAIN for the year).
Thee fact that I can't load us up on a Friday and take off for some MUCH NEEDED "mood lift" (and exercise) as you put it - is really getting me down.
Sure, I'm happy that we both have our jobs and zero money worries... but at what cost? I think once March is behind me and the weather picks up, I'm just gonna hit the road. Screw the fines, courts, etc... our mental health takes priority!0 -
It could happen a lot sooner. Vaccines will be ramping up, numbers dropping etc. it’s only a ball park estimate given current situation. But if they succeed getting the vaccines out things could change a lot.
Latest news headlines has the "promised" vaccine supply down to HALF.
These cclowns running the show would miss the floor if they fell!0 -
Interesting to see Gibraltar now has close to 50% with both shots, is vaxxing the under 20s and is aiming to complete full vaccination by the end of this month.
Infections are currently in low single figures compared to highs of around 180 about 6 weeks ago.0 -
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Latest news headlines has the "promised" vaccine supply down to HALF.
These cclowns running the show would miss the floor if they fell!
Who are you blaming for telling lies over how much vaccine they could deliver?
The government? Not a lot they can do,they were and continue to be shafted by AZ.0 -
Plumbthedepths wrote: »There is no reason why non essential retail with a street entrance can not be open for click and collect at present.
I'm not entirely sure what their problem was with click and collect to be honest, except perhaps to prevent workplace outbreaks. For somewhere like Smyths Toys they would have to have more people on site to enable click and collect than they would need for fulfilling online orders only.
I suppose it also encouraged people to travel outside their 5k. Now, you might think the 5k restriction is a nonsense, and it is when you are talking about taking a walk on a beach or up a mountain, but it becomes less of a nonsense when you're talking about click and collect. It's incredibly frustrating to have to buy something online, and if a shop was selling something that you could buy and pick up today, it's much more likely you'll breach the 5k to collect it. Now, most shops are pretty stringent about making you queue outside, so that's not where the risk lies. The risk is more to do with stopping at the petrol station on the way, and then going to get a coffee, and then sure since you're in that direction you might just call and see your sister for five minutes...okay ten...okay maybe just one cup of tea. It just means that there are more people moving around.
Having said all that - I agree that click and collect could open well before 1 June...just not quite yet.0 -
Interesting to see Gibraltar now has close to 50% with both shots, is vaxxing the under 20s and is aiming to complete full vaccination by the end of this month.
Infections are currently in low single figures compared to highs of around 180 about 6 weeks ago.
A country with a population of about 10 people that isn't in the EU?0 -
I'm not entirely sure what their problem was with click and collect to be honest, except perhaps to prevent workplace outbreaks. For somewhere like Smyths Toys they would have to have more people on site to enable click and collect than they would need for fulfilling online orders only.
I suppose it also encouraged people to travel outside their 5k. Now, you might think the 5k restriction is a nonsense, and it is when you are talking about taking a walk on a beach or up a mountain, but it becomes less of a nonsense when you're talking about click and collect. It's incredibly frustrating to have to buy something online, and if a shop was selling something that you could buy and pick up today, it's much more likely you'll breach the 5k to collect it. Now, most shops are pretty stringent about making you queue outside, so that's not where the risk lies. The risk is more to do with stopping at the petrol station on the way, and then going to get a coffee, and then sure since you're in that direction you might just call and see your sister for five minutes...okay ten...okay maybe just one cup of tea. It just means that there are more people moving around.
Having said all that - I agree that click and collect could open well before 1 June...just not quite yet.
So you think click and collect would encourage someone to see their sister? If someone is determined to see someone not withstanding the absence of Click and Collect they will do it anyways. Sorry your reasons for saying it shouldn't happen yet is completely devoid of logic imo.0 -
Who are you blaming for telling lies over how much vaccine they could deliver?
The government? Not a lot they can do,they were and continue to be shafted by AZ.
But... How many OTHER vaccines are there? 8 is it?
Our reactive, tunnel-vision attitude to everything the past year is laughable!!!
Seeing news-bites on social media begging other countries for leftovers?
Jesus wept! Source OTHER bloody vaccines!!!0 -
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But... How many OTHER vaccines are there? 8 is it?
Our reactive, tunnel-vision attitude to everything the past year is laughable!!!
Seeing news-bites on social media begging other countries for leftovers?
Jesus wept! Source OTHER bloody vaccines!!!
Do they have to be approved? Or safe? Or is it just stick anything in arms and open up.0 -
I fully expect them to source every and any vaccine they can, but only if said vaccines pass the regulatory process. The J and J is expected to get approval towards the end of the month , Spuknik 5 is being assessed. Heard nothing about the EMA looking at data for the Chinese vaccine.But... How many OTHER vaccines are there? 8 is it?
Our reactive, tunnel-vision attitude to everything the past year is laughable!!!
Seeing news-bites on social media begging other countries for leftovers?
Jesus wept! Source OTHER bloody vaccines!!!0 -
But... How many OTHER vaccines are there? 8 is it?
Our reactive, tunnel-vision attitude to everything the past year is laughable!!!
Seeing news-bites on social media begging other countries for leftovers?
Jesus wept! Source OTHER bloody vaccines!!!
3
Pfizer - 95% - £26/dose
Moderna - 94% - £27/dose
AstraZeneca - 62% - £3/dose
There are more on the way but only 3 approved so far.
Figures vary from source to source.
Johnson & Johnson will probably be the next approved. 66% efficacy. Not sure the cost.
There are 21 vaccines in final stages of testing at the moment.
The EU has 1.5billion vaccines on order from various suppliers.0 -
Plumbthedepths wrote: »So you think click and collect would encourage someone to see their sister? If someone is determined to see someone not withstanding the absence of Click and Collect they will do it anyways. Sorry your reasons for saying it shouldn't happen yet is completely devoid of logic imo.
People don't fall into black and white categories Plumbthedepths. There isn't one set of people that are completely adhering to the restrictions, and then a second set that are devil-may-care, I'll see my family whenever I feel like it people. If you give more reasons for people to move around, like click and collect, more people will move around. If more people move around, it is likely that their journey won't be the sole purpose of picking up that pair of shoes or couch. I don't think that's illogical, I think it's just human nature.0 -
People don't fall into black and white categories Plumbthedepths. There isn't one set of people that are completely adhering to the restrictions, and then a second set that are devil-may-care, I'll see my family whenever I feel like it people. If you give more reasons for people to move around, like click and collect, more people will move around. If more people move around, it is likely that their journey won't be the sole purpose of picking up that pair of shoes or couch. I don't think that's illogical, I think it's just human nature.
If you give people more reasons to move around? I haven't stopped working since this crap started last year, the roads are as busy now as they were before the Christmas lockdown. Grocery shopping has to be the new day out.
Click and collect will give alot of businesses the opportunity to survive and go some way to making a dent in the huge SW bill we are running up.
Btw you can buy a couch at present even browse the store if you wish as I did last Sunday.0 -
Plumbthedepths wrote: »If you give people more reasons to move around? I haven't stopped working since this crap started last year, the roads are as busy now as they were before the Christmas lockdown. Grocery shopping has to be the new day out.
Click and collect will give alot of businesses the opportunity to survive and go some way to making a dent in the huge SW bill we are running up.
Btw you can buy a couch at present even browse the store if you wish as I did last Sunday.
On the whole Plumbthedepths, I don't disagree with you. We've got to prop up the economy where we can.
I live close to a main road, which was very very busy in normal times. During the first lockdown - deserted. During the summer, fairly busy. During the second lockdown - absolutely no change, fairly busy, but that wasn't a real lockdown. December, no real change, maybe a few more cars. The first three weeks of this lockdown - deserted. Now - definitely busier but nowhere near last October/November, probably since schools were closed and the return-to-the-office creep had reversed.
I get why they shut click and collect in January. I think it is completely valid to be asking the question now about whether infections have dropped, and enough vaccines have been administered, to a point where we could open click and collect, while bearing in mind that the economic suffering now is worse than it was this time last year. Am I completely convinced that now is the right time to open it? No, but I'm not far off.
EDIT: Personally, I think it more important for the economy and society as a whole for construction to open in priority to click and collect.0 -
Who are you blaming for telling lies over how much vaccine they could deliver?
The government? Not a lot they can do,they were and continue to be shafted by AZ.
they could take a leaf out of hungary and czechias book and start sourcing vaccines from china and russia but i guess that's too much work0 -
they could take a leaf out of hungary and czechias book and start sourcing vaccines from china and russia but i guess that's too much work
Vaccine availability isn't going to be helped at this stage by sourcing outside the EU program, the HSE and all the other bureaucrats and regulatory hurdles simply cannot react fast enough.
In a months time the headlines will be all about moving the vaccines from vials into arms and will be the bottleneck IMO and that hapless idiot (Donnelly) will continue to show his form.0 -
Pfizer - 95% - £26/dose
Moderna - 94% - £27/dose
AstraZeneca - 62% - £3/dose
I should point out... that 95% efficacy for Pfizer.... that was in UK trials, against variants in the UK environment. The same vaccine had just 22% efficacy in it's South African trials (ie. against the SA variant 501Y.V2).
Preliminary tests of the AZ vaccine are also showing 22% efficacy against the SA variant.0 -
I should point out... that 95% efficacy for Pfizer.... that was in UK trials, against variants in the UK environment. The same vaccine had just 22% efficacy in it's South African trials (ie. against the SA variant 501Y.V2).
Preliminary tests of the AZ vaccine are also showing 22% efficacy against the SA variant.
For mild cases but still very effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths which is the most important part of this.
Some interesting data regarding variants:
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1369052893718978560?s=210 -
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But... How many OTHER vaccines are there? 8 is it?
Our reactive, tunnel-vision attitude to everything the past year is laughable!!!
Seeing news-bites on social media begging other countries for leftovers?
Jesus wept! Source OTHER bloody vaccines!!!
This sort of post frustrates me.
There's 3 vaccines approved for use in Ireland currently, not 8.
We are getting as much supply as we can,not much you can do when you make plans and set targets and then the vaccine provider moves the goalposts (Or in the case of AZ outright lies)
Everybody is sick of it now but the lack of basic comprehension and reasoning skills is astounding.0 -
A lot are - and who could blame them. 1 on 1 service - with sterlised instruments and both masked up. A total joke to still have them shut when the likes of B@Q, Halfords and supermarkets are packed!
Don't get me started on the 5km travel restriction. UTTER FÜCK1NG NONSENSE at this stage. What difference does it make if we are outdoors in a packed playground within 5km or in total isolation on a remote beach or off the beaten track.
I'm happy to adhere to all the "rules" but the 5km restriction is beyond a feckin' joke now... Prisoners in our own country.
Just ignore it. I have since middle of Feb.0 -
There's 3 vaccines approved for use in Ireland currently, not 8.
I take your point, and soon to be four vaccines if JandJ are approved in the coming days.
Now, I don't know if there are other vaccines that are nearly ready to be approved, but is it open to the Irish medicines regulator to approve a vaccine on an emergency basis, like the UK did for the AZ vaccine?
If, say, the Novartis vaccine was nearly ready for submission, would it be open for us to individually negotiate for more vaccine supply, over and above whatever the EU have agreed to buy (have they agreed to buy anything from Novartis yet?). Or indeed, could we request that the russians submit Sputnik for approval and agree to buy a certain amount from them. Or Sinopharm?
I'm all for European solidarity, and very much a europhile, but the thing that makes the EU great is also it's biggest failing. When there is a cast of thousands and a decision has to be taken, their process normally means that any risks are minimised and the most sensible solution results. However, this also means that decision making is painfully slow, and in an environment where people are dying and vast swathes have lost their livelihood, the slow pace of decision making simply isn't good enough. In these circumstances, I cannot really see any justification for us not attempting to secure additional supplies outside of the EU joint enterprise.0 -
ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »Entire thing will become a joke despite ranting and outrage on RTE - all that will happen is piles of Southern Irish will head North fly off to whichever sun destination is taking vaccinated tourists (Spain and Greece both look likely very soon) and there is sweet FA that the Irish government can do about it.
If the Irish government had half a brain cell it would immediately be working with the British government to create an identical travel strategy across the UK and Ireland under the CTA. As it stands the UK is honouring the CTA as you can enter the UK unrestricted from Ireland but the Irish government isn't as if you are coming from mainland UK you have to isolate etc. Of course many people who need to travel to Ireland from the UK are just using NI backdoor. This would allow free travel in the CTA with further overseas travel having exactly the same restrictions so if for example Greece takes vaccinated tourists Irish or British people can fly there.
If the Irish government doesn't do this it gurantees that people will head North to get away. The only way Ireland could ensure independent integrity with it's own travel restrictions is to close the NI border.
Anything else is a fudge.
Lets look at this...
About 85% of UK is going to get the Vaccine and even at that it is going to be 95% effective...
That will make 20%, 1 in 5 people in UK unprotected... This doesn't take into account mutations in the virus.. Mix that with a bunch of Irish in tight spaces like pubs... Not good...
Now someone must be explaining this to Boris right now... I say UK could be open to a two island policy for next winter.
The Government is doing just fine... Before there was rule that we would have to share vaccines with rest of EU... But Austria and Germany (& others) have already looked independently for vaccine... So Ireland is in the clear to get millions...
21st of June is what Boris is aiming for... Ireland could be looking for a few weeks of Wrexham....
Boris could do with the same to a few islands and then he comes out a winner..0 -
I take your point, and soon to be four vaccines if JandJ are approved in the coming days.
Now, I don't know if there are other vaccines that are nearly ready to be approved, but is it open to the Irish medicines regulator to approve a vaccine on an emergency basis, like the UK did for the AZ vaccine?
If, say, the Novartis vaccine was nearly ready for submission, would it be open for us to individually negotiate for more vaccine supply, over and above whatever the EU have agreed to buy (have they agreed to buy anything from Novartis yet?). Or indeed, could we request that the russians submit Sputnik for approval and agree to buy a certain amount from them. Or Sinopharm?
I'm all for European solidarity, and very much a europhile, but the thing that makes the EU great is also it's biggest failing. When there is a cast of thousands and a decision has to be taken, their process normally means that any risks are minimised and the most sensible solution results. However, this also means that decision making is painfully slow, and in an environment where people are dying and vast swathes have lost their livelihood, the slow pace of decision making simply isn't good enough. In these circumstances, I cannot really see any justification for us not attempting to secure additional supplies outside of the EU joint enterprise.
I agree with you here.
I think this is where valid criticism (as opposed the "mehole" twitter/fb outrage) comes into it.
We have nobody brave enough or dynamic enough come up with or to actually follow through on something like this.0 -
Lets look at this...
About 85% of UK is going to get the Vaccine and even at that it is going to be 95% effective...
That will make 20%, 1 in 5 people in UK unprotected... This doesn't take into account mutations in the virus.. Mix that with a bunch of Irish in tight spaces like pubs... Not good...
Now someone must be explaining this to Boris right now... I say UK could be open to a two island policy for next winter.
The Government is doing just fine... Before there was rule that we would have to share vaccines with rest of EU... But Austria and Germany (& others) have already looked independently for vaccine... So Ireland is in the clear to get millions...
21st of June is what Boris is aiming for... Ireland could be looking for a few weeks of Wrexham....
Boris could do with the same to a few islands and then he comes out a winner..
Once hospitals can manage that's all that matters now. We have to open up sooner rather than later and it will cost a lot of lives but nothing can be done about it.0 -
Lets look at this...
About 85% of UK is going to get the Vaccine and even at that it is going to be 95% effective...
That will make 20%, 1 in 5 people in UK unprotected... This doesn't take into account mutations in the virus.. Mix that with a bunch of Irish in tight spaces like pubs... Not good...
Now someone must be explaining this to Boris right now... I say UK could be open to a two island policy for next winter.
The Government is doing just fine... Before there was rule that we would have to share vaccines with rest of EU... But Austria and Germany (& others) have already looked independently for vaccine... So Ireland is in the clear to get millions...
21st of June is what Boris is aiming for... Ireland could be looking for a few weeks of Wrexham....
Boris could do with the same to a few islands and then he comes out a winner..
Once the critical masses are vaccinated and the hospitals aren’t overrun your 1 in 5 calculations won’t be of concern of normality resuming.0 -
Our biggest problem is the ingrained conservatism in our politicians, which is matched by NPHET.
We rejected the suggestion for a longer gap between jabs, which appears to be producing good data. We stick to the guidelines from the manufacturers. That's an reasonable approach if no other data is available, yes the UK may have gambled but it appears to be paying off.
NPHET are still not convince on antigen testing despite evidence that it is another tool in the fight against covid.
I am beginning to believe nothing of significance will change on the 5 April. Certainly nothing that will provide relief to the majority of the population.
When is Tony H due back to work?0 -
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Lets look at this...
About 85% of UK is going to get the Vaccine and even at that it is going to be 95% effective...
That will make 20%, 1 in 5 people in UK unprotected... This doesn't take into account mutations in the virus.. Mix that with a bunch of Irish in tight spaces like pubs... Not good...
Now someone must be explaining this to Boris right now... I say UK could be open to a two island policy for next winter.
The Government is doing just fine... Before there was rule that we would have to share vaccines with rest of EU... But Austria and Germany (& others) have already looked independently for vaccine... So Ireland is in the clear to get millions...
21st of June is what Boris is aiming for... Ireland could be looking for a few weeks of Wrexham....
Boris could do with the same to a few islands and then he comes out a winner..
If 85% of the UK population get the virus the vast bulk of these people won't end up in hospital or dead, yes some may still get mild or very mild symptoms but so what ? - based on polling data that was on the BBC yesterday the percentage of people who don't want the vaccine is tiny in the older at risk groups but does get much higher in the younger age groups who are not at risk.
So you might see 95-98% vaccine uptake in the over 65's for example and maybe 80% take-up up in the 18-30 age group so this will further reduce hospitalisations and deaths etc as we know these younger age groups are not at risk.
Bear in mind even with vaccine efficacy not being 100% the remaining people are less likely to end up in hospital etc so whatever way you cut it hospitalisations and deaths are going to be a tiny fraction of what we have had to date.
Having said all of that the bit that no one in NPHET or our weak politicians has had the balls yet to say is that people are going to keep catching and in some cases dieing from this endemic virus quite possibly indefinitely and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
Everybody out there has to accept this (just like for years we've somehow managed with the flu etc etc and tolerated many diseases caused by lifestyles some infectious, some non infectious and seem to jog on).
In the UK Boris and his heath tsars have made the mental jump to a society which once largely vaccinated will just have to get on with things.........despite some death and hospitalisations.
We haven't got there yet here but need to quickly.
Obsessing about variants is living your life with the what if...........For decades flu has mutated and can do at any point and can get nasty - read about the 1950's and 1960's mutations and outbreaks........but if we spend the rest of lives worrying about what might happen rather than just getting on with life it's daft - it's neurotic.
But everyone is going to have to stop obsessing about case numbers, face masks, washing hands and get on with life - yes in the background the boffins can keep an eye on hospitalisations and deaths and tweak vaccines just like the seaonal flu vaccine.............the reality is right now Covid is a very low risk to the vast majority of our population and once people are vaccinated it becomes a tiny fraction of this already low risk.
People need to start now getting into a mental space where they crack on with life. Anyone wanting to keep restrictions of any kind in place once we have the vaccine extensively rolled out in my opinion is neurotic. (and I am not being critical or unsympathetic here as I know the mental bombardment that people have had to endure with covid from the likes of NPHET and the media). But it will be neurotic behaviour in my opinion.
The government by the way isn't doing fine.....they have done absolutely nothing bar use the EU as an excuse for supply - the infuriating thing is any money spent over the odds acquiring extra vaccine supplies outside of the EU procurement path would have been paid back in spades getting the economy open faster. It would have also shown to people who have been deeply affected financially by this and been prevented from trading, that the government actually had some semblance of understanding what these people have been through.
By the way more signs tonight in the media of vaccine supply issues.....
A two island policy is not going to be an option so better to address it now. The NI border won't be closed therefore stop playing games and just get a policy in progress now. Anything else is a fudge and we have had enough of those.0
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