When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 4:31pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We have to get back to some sort of normality and when most of the people are vaccinated we will see sort of normality resume.We can't be negative like you.

Ok. Do you acknowledge that your behaviour would be part of the problem and would help prolong the whole thing?

St.Spodo · 14-01-2021 4:47pm

If 2.5 million people are vaccinated by the end of June, that will be just under 70% of all adults in the country. Factoring in natural immunity, which we know offers very robust protection, we could have a situation where 3 out of every 4 adults has immunity at that point. I don't expect to see mass gatherings, concerts or the like by then just yet, but I would speculate pubs, restaurants, cinemas, cafés, museums, barbers/hairdressers etc will be fully open.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 4:52pm

St.Spodo wrote: »

If 2.5 million people are vaccinated by the end of June, that will be just under 70% of all adults in the country. Factoring in natural immunity, which we know offers very robust protection, we could have a situation where 3 out of every 4 adults has immunity at that point. I don't expect to see mass gatherings, concerts or the like by then just yet, but I would speculate pubs, restaurants, cinemas, cafés, museums, barbers/hairdressers etc will be fully open.

Fully open with distancing and masks.

For how long are you assuming the vaccine will give immunity?

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 4:52pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. Do you acknowledge that your behaviour would be part of the problem and would help prolong the whole thing?

This is a ridiculously stupid argument.

What would the problem be in this instance exactly?

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 4:54pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Fully open with distancing and masks.

For how long are you assuming the vaccine will give immunity?

Fully open period. No mask, no distancing.

We vaccinate the vulnerable, we open. End of story. This virus is not harmful to the majority of the population. Feel free to stay in your bunker for the next 20 years if you are terrified of how long the vaccine gives one immunity.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 4:56pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

This is a ridiculously stupid argument.

What would the problem be in this instance exactly?

It wasn’t an argument, it was a question. And the poster declining to answer it, speaks volumes.

I’ll answer your question. The problem would be the prevalence of the virus int he community. Vaccinated people can probably still carry and transmit the virus (according to research reported today). So allowing the virus to run rampant in the community is not an option. So if some people decide to flout the rules, they will obviously help spread the virus to the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, thus prolonging the whole problem.

Do you understand the issue now?

St.Spodo · 14-01-2021 4:57pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Fully open with distancing and masks.

For how long are you assuming the vaccine will give immunity?

With distancing and masks, yes.

And hopefully a year. I would expect we'll be getting an annual jab.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 4:58pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

Fully open period. No mask, no distancing.

We vaccinate the vulnerable, we open. End of story. This virus is not harmful to the majority of the population. Feel free to stay in your bunker for the next 20 years if you are terrified of how long the vaccine gives one immunity.

Period. Cringe.

I can see you’ve made your mind up and I’m doubtful any new information will get in.

How do you think length of immunity will impact the time taken to reopen?

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 4:59pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It wasn’t an argument, it was a question. And the poster declining to answer it, speaks volumes.

I’ll answer your question. The problem would be the prevalence of the virus int he community. Vaccinated people can probably still carry and transmit the virus (according to research reported today). So allowing the virus to run rampant in the community is not an option. So if some people decide to flout the rules, they will obviously help spread the virus to the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, thus prolonging the whole problem.

Do you understand the issue now?

This virus is not harmful to the majority of the population.

After the vulnerable are vaccinated it is probably a good thing if the virus spreads around the healthy, granting herd immunity along with continuing vaccinations of non vulnerable.

What difference does it make if vaccinated people get the virus exactly once the vulnerable are vaccinated?

What on earth are you blathering on about?

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 5:02pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Period. Cringe.

I can see you’ve made your mind up and I’m doubtful any new information will get in.

How do you think length of immunity will impact the time taken to reopen?

Your whole stance on this matter = Unbelievably "cringe".

What does your question even mean?

niallo27 · 14-01-2021 5:03pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It wasn’t an argument, it was a question. And the poster declining to answer it, speaks volumes.

I’ll answer your question. The problem would be the prevalence of the virus int he community. Vaccinated people can probably still carry and transmit the virus (according to research reported today). So allowing the virus to run rampant in the community is not an option. So if some people decide to flout the rules, they will obviously help spread the virus to the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, thus prolonging the whole problem.

Do you understand the issue now?

But the unvaccinated will have a tiny risk of being adversely affected by this virus, that is the whole point of vaccinating them last.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 5:05pm

St.Spodo wrote: »

With distancing and masks, yes.

And hopefully a year. I would expect we'll be getting an annual jab.

That sounds realistic. Anything better than that would be a bonus. And they will be working on better and more effective Vaccines so hopefully they will keep ahead of it.

Hard to know how it will work out. Hopefully the mutations which arise in the future like the Kent, South Africa and Brazilian variants are all covered by the vaccine. Otherwise it will be a completely differ timescale

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 5:08pm

niallo27 wrote: »

But the unvaccinated will have a tiny risk of being adversely affected by this virus, that is the whole point of vaccinating them last.

His argument is completely nonsensical.

Let's keep lockdown after the people who the virus negatively affects cannot be affected by it anymore, because people it doesnt affect might get it??

People like this will have the opportunity to stay in their bunkers for the next decade in fear while the rest of us get on with our lives.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 5:08pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

Your whole stance on this matter = Unbelievably "cringe".

What does your question even mean?

Are you being serious? The question is pretty clear: “ How do you think length of immunity will impact the time taken to reopen?”

So I’ll break it down into separate questions.
1. How long do you think the vaccine will give immunity to the people who get it? And
2. What impact would that timeframe have on time taken to reopen?

Coybig_ · 14-01-2021 5:14pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Are you being serious? The question is pretty clear: “ How do you think length of immunity will impact the time taken to reopen?”

So I’ll break it down into separate questions.
1. How long do you think the vaccine will give immunity to the people who get it? And
2. What impact would that timeframe have on time taken to reopen?

1. I dont know. 1 year, 3 years? Who cares. It is irrelevant. We will be able to vaccinate people again by the time we find out. Coronavirusus mutate at a much slower rate than influenza and past coronavirus mutations have been toward less harmful variants. If people end up having to get a jab every year what difference would it make?

2. None. Why would it have any impact?

bucketybuck · 14-01-2021 5:19pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

This is a ridiculously stupid argument.

And one that he has already had in other threads, but seems determined to keep bringing up.

If the vaccine works and the death rates fall then there is no justification for restrictions. Such a simple concept but some people don't want to understand it.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 5:24pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

1. I dont know. 1 year, 3 years? Who cares. It is irrelevant. We will be able to vaccinate people again by the time we find out. Coronavirusus mutate at a much slower rate than influenza and past coronavirus mutations have been toward less harmful variants. If people end up having to get a jab every year what difference would it make?

2. None. Why would it have any impact?

The research (not that I think research could have any impact on your opinion) suggests 5 months of good immunity (83%) and then a drop off. So we might need vaccines every year. And you don’t think that’s significant in terms of how long it will take to reopen?

Is anyone suggesting the Kent version is less dangerous? It’s more transmissible but I have to heard that it’s less dangerous.

Do you really not think that covid will be dealt with on a global basis? We all want to get back to normal so forget what we all want to happen. What do you think will happen? Just vaccinate the vulnerable and open up no masks, no distancing “period”?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 5:26pm

bucketybuck wrote: »

And one that he has already had in other threads, but seems determined to keep bringing up.

If the vaccine works and the death rates fall then there is no justification for restrictions. Such a simple concept but some people don't want to understand it.

Why not be realistic about how it will likely work. That poster think we won’t even have distancing or masks once to a vulnerable are vaccinated. Why encourage that sort of thing when it will only lead to disappointment?

GT89 · 14-01-2021 5:38pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

And there’s the problem.

I’m not telling you what to do, but do you acknowledge that your behaviour would be part of the problem and would help prolong the whole thing?

It's not people disobeying the guidelines that are prolonging the lockdown it is the governement that are prolonging it they're the ones making the decisions not people going to the pub, some GAA club having a bask or people not wearing masks. I blame the lockdown on the government for imposing them and the people who listen to them.

Le Bruise · 14-01-2021 5:42pm

@El_Duderino 09 - You mention that vaccine immunity only lasts for 5 months before a drop off. You also state that people will still transmit the virus post vaccination. Just wondering if you could point me in the direction of those studies? In particular the transmission one, as I didn't think they'd have definite answers on Pfizer until some time in February?

14-01-2021 5:50pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The research (not that I think research could have any impact on your opinion) suggests 5 months of good immunity (83%) and then a drop off. So we might need vaccines every year. And you don’t think that’s significant in terms of how long it will take to reopen?

Is anyone suggesting the Kent version is less dangerous? It’s more transmissible but I have to heard that it’s less dangerous.

Do you really not think that covid will be dealt with on a global basis? We all want to get back to normal so forget what we all want to happen. What do you think will happen? Just vaccinate the vulnerable and open up no masks, no distancing “period”?

If we have to get jabbed every year we have to get jabbed every year. Its unlikely though as in general people have immunity for years for coronaviruses precisely because they don't mutate significantly. This new more transmissible strain can in fact be vaccinated against with the same vaccine, no changes needed. They update flu vaccines every year and the corona virus is easier and has fewer mutations, so if that happens -- and it probably won't -- we will fix that as well.

I have no idea where you get the 5 month drop off from.

Also why do people deeply wish for this to continue?

14-01-2021 5:52pm

Le Bruise wrote: »

@El_Duderino 09 - You mention that vaccine immunity only lasts for 5 months before a drop off. You also state that people will still transmit the virus post vaccination. Just wondering if you could point me in the direction of those studies? In particular the transmission one, as I didn't think they'd have definite answers on Pfizer until some time in February?

In some reports they say, out of an abundance of caution, that they don't know if transmission is affected.

However usually vaccines give full immunity and thus clearly stop transmission. Thats why smallpox is gone and polio is don't to a dozen cases a year.

...Ghost... · 14-01-2021 6:04pm

GT89 wrote: »

It's not people disobeying the guidelines that are prolonging the lockdown it is the governement that are prolonging it they're the ones making the decisions not people going to the pub, some GAA club having a bask or people not wearing masks. I blame the lockdown on the government for imposing them and the people who listen to them.

He wasn't talking about prolonging lockdown. He was talking about prolonging the whole thing. And while the Gov might be the entity imposing lockdown restrictions, it's largely people breaking the rules and dismissing guidelines that are causing case numbers to rise, resulting in higher mortality rates. The Gov are not getting it right either and some of their allowances make no sense, such as the schools being "safe". Safe me hole!

Le Bruise · 14-01-2021 6:08pm

Deleted User wrote: »

In some reports they say, out of an abundance of caution, that they don't know if transmission is affected.

However usually vaccines give full immunity and thus clearly stop transmission. Thats why smallpox is gone and polio is don't to a dozen cases a year.

Yup, thought that....it was just that the poster above said they had seen research (today) that suggested the virus was transmitted post-vaccine. Would just like to see that research!

plodder · 14-01-2021 6:20pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It wasn’t an argument, it was a question. And the poster declining to answer it, speaks volumes.

I’ll answer your question. The problem would be the prevalence of the virus int he community. Vaccinated people can probably still carry and transmit the virus (according to research reported today). So allowing the virus to run rampant in the community is not an option. So if some people decide to flout the rules, they will obviously help spread the virus to the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, thus prolonging the whole problem.

Do you have a link to that research?

cgcsb · 14-01-2021 6:20pm

They have to say that you can still transmit the virus because at the moment it can't be proven beyond doubt that isn't the case. But realistically if the new mRNA technology is as effective as claimed and virus particles do enter your bloodstream. Not only will those particles of the virus be unable to reproduce inside your body, they'll hardly last any time at all without a host cell and with antibodies on the loose. Also remember they said it's only fully effective some weeks after the second dose.

As for new strains, there is currently a vaccine under development that promises to eradicate all strains of influenza, by changing tactics and targeting a different part of the virus' structure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_flu_vaccine#:~:text=A%20universal%20flu%20vaccine%20is,modification%20from%20year%20to%20year.

Also people don't seem to recognise what the mRNA vaccine means for medicine when this is all over. This technology is nothing short of a revolution, not just for vaccines but across all medicine. The trials for other applications have been slow but once covid is gone more money will flow into research.

Nature will have to up it's game when coming up with methods to reduce human numbers.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 6:33pm

GT89 wrote: »

It's not people disobeying the guidelines that are prolonging the lockdown it is the governement that are prolonging it they're the ones making the decisions not people going to the pub, some GAA club having a bask or people not wearing masks. I blame the lockdown on the government for imposing them and the people who listen to them.

That works in the same way that more testing leads to more confirmed cases.

I’d rephrase the question to ask whether you understand that mixing and spreading the virus will prolong the need for the restrictions?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 6:34pm

plodder wrote: »

Do you have a link to that research?

I have a link to the report of the research -as I said in the post you quoted. I’ll look it up. And get back to you.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

How does that new Information impact your opinion?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 6:40pm

Le Bruise wrote: »

Yup, thought that....it was just that the poster above said they had seen research (today) that suggested the virus was transmitted post-vaccine. Would just like to see that research!

If you saw that research, how would it impact your opinion? Would you even read the report on it?

Here it is be sure to let us know what impact it has on your thoughts.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

El_Duderino 09 · 14-01-2021 6:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

...

I have no idea where you get the 5 month drop off from. ...

Le Bruise wrote: »

@El_Duderino 09 - You mention that vaccine immunity only lasts for 5 months before a drop off. You also state that people will still transmit the virus post vaccination. Just wondering if you could point me in the direction of those studies? In particular the transmission one, as I didn't think they'd have definite answers on Pfizer until some time in February?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

Be sure to let me know what impact this new information has on your opinion.

When will it all end?

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