When will it all end?

Kunta Kinte

Deleted User wrote: »

You want to be careful now.Certain people on this forum would be offended that you would go outside your 5km

How are the shebeen shenanigans going? Anyone rumbled you yet?:)

Kunta Kinte

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

How are the shebeen shenanigans going? Anyone rumbled you yet?:)

Going great . Another session on Sunday for the rugby and one on Paddys day

ELM327

Hellrazer wrote: »

We dont need herd immunity once our over 65s and vulnerable are vaccinated.

We`ve had 4452 deaths so far WITH covid. 92% of them were in over 65s and 93% of all deaths had an underlying condition.

4096 over 65s died WITH covid. That leaves 356 under 65s that died with covid.

Now 93% of all covid deaths have underlying conditions so out of that 356 only 25 healthy people have died from covid 19.

No reason to stay open once our vulnerable (those with underlying conditions) and over 65s are vaccinated.

Once we have reached a critical mass of vaccines (ie once everyone who needs one gets one, and someone can request one from their GP or whoever and get it that day without delay then we should be back to normal.


As someone who has underlying health conditions to be honest I think we should reopen the economy now (maintaining masking and social distancing) and allow folks like me to stay at home. The death and ICU rate does not seem excessive enough to have warranted a 1 year+ shutdown.

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

Once we have reached a critical mass of vaccines (ie once everyone who needs one gets one, and someone can request one from their GP or whoever and get it that day without delay then we should be back to normal.


As someone who has underlying health conditions to be honest I think we should reopen the economy now (maintaining masking and social distancing) and allow folks like me to stay at home. The death and ICU rate does not seem excessive enough to have warranted a 1 year+ shutdown.

the death numbers are what they are because of the lockdown

ELM327

monkeybutter wrote: »

the death numbers are what they are because of the lockdown

Yes absolutely and it was the right thing to do initially, but we are past that time now.


We know that masking and distancing works.

billyhead

6541 wrote: »

My father who is in the 80 - 85 age bracket has just got the first Jab, the second Jab is due first week in April.
The procedure was as efficient as one could get - basically a drive through inoculation in a medical centers car park.
Car park was full with people coming and going. They must be getting through hundreds today.
Looks to me that we are getting to the end of this.

How was your father notified of his appointment? Was it a letter?

Hellrazer

monkeybutter wrote: »

the death numbers are what they are because of the lockdown

The lockdowns didnt save 95,000 people as was the "experts" predictions when covid entered Ireland.

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes absolutely and it was the right thing to do initially, but we are past that time now.


We know that masking and distancing works.

that is the plan though a move to level 3, hopefully the summer will have numbers lower than last year

monkeybutter

Hellrazer wrote: »

The lockdowns didnt save 95,000 people as was the "experts" predictions when covid entered Ireland.

how many did it save?

ELM327

monkeybutter wrote: »

that is the plan though a move to level 3, hopefully the summer will have numbers lower than last year

Level 3 is not enough.
It should be back to all open, except masking and distancing to continue.

JDD

I agree. Once over-70's and high risk vulnerable are vaccinated we should go to Level 2, automatically. Indoor concerts and outdoor spectators should be allowed once it's all seated and there is two seats between each household group and every second row empty. Indoor events should remain masked for the moment.

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

Level 3 is not enough.
It should be back to all open, except masking and distancing to continue.

that experiment failed in december, it may have had aggravating factors so its best to be cautious and prevent need for another level 5 The cost sunk in at this point doesn't merit the risk to just blanket reopening and who do you think will be blamed if it doesn't work i mean no ones perfect but at least the government isn't reckless, which is what you want you don't want boris or trump etc

ELM327

I'm in a cohort that are likely to be affected badly by the virus, hence I am now working from home and only going out for shopping and childcare reasons.

I don't think that the 99.5% of cases that do not result in death/ICU admission should necessitate a lockdown for everyone.

The vaccine is nearly here. We need to open up. We've done our time.

EDIT: You mention Trump and Boris. Both the US and UK have more pro rate vaccines delivered than we do?

monkeybutter

JDD wrote: »

I agree. Once over-70's and high risk vulnerable are vaccinated we should go to Level 2, automatically. Indoor concerts and outdoor spectators should be allowed once it's all seated and there is two seats between each household group and every second row empty. Indoor events should remain masked for the moment.

so June? running outdoor events like that at less than 50% capacity will be run at a loss, so who would run them

JDD

monkeybutter wrote: »

that experiment failed in december, it may have had aggravating factors so its best to be cautious and prevent need for another level 5 The cost sunk in at this point doesn't merit the risk to just blanket reopening and who do you think will be blamed if it doesn't work i mean no ones perfect but at least the government isn't reckless, which is what you want you don't want boris or trump etc

No one was vaccinated in December. It's different now.

Hellrazer

monkeybutter wrote: »

how many did it save?

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.


Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000




Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

JDD

monkeybutter wrote: »

so June? running outdoor events like that at less than 50% capacity will be run at a loss, so who would run them

Dunno about that. Professional sports matches are happening anyway, better to have 10,000 fans in the stands paying for tickets. Yes, it's not as lucrative as 20,000 fans, but it's something.

Concerts that might have been played in smaller venues will need to be played in bigger ones. Those bigger venues will be glad of the business since their normal larger events won't be able to go ahead.

Loads of outdoor music venues will be delighted to hold events even if they have to pay for the hire of 5000 fold out chairs. And people will probably pay a premium to see a live show again.

mcsean2163

monkeybutter wrote: »

how many did it save?

None/ loads, we'll never know. Finland did ok without lockdown but Sweden did not etc.
.
Pro lockdown people will claim 90,000 lifes saved, anti lockdown people will say potential deaths exaggerated.

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm in a cohort that are likely to be affected badly by the virus, hence I am now working from home and only going out for shopping and childcare reasons.

I don't think that the 99.5% of cases that do not result in death/ICU admission should necessitate a lockdown for everyone.

The vaccine is nearly here. We need to open up. We've done our time.

EDIT: You mention Trump and Boris. Both the US and UK have more pro rate vaccines delivered than we do?

did you miss the rest of the year though?

Both got covid due to moronic personal stupidity, thats the tip of the iceberg

The vaccine delivery has only gotten started, maybe we should judge after the fact

they are moving towards opening up

you are lucky, you have an underlying condition that doesn't stop you getting a vaccine and you had the sense to treat it seriously

You might have only avoided it because the rest of the population were in lockdown

monkeybutter

Hellrazer wrote: »

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.


Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000




Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

hmm those stats are because of the lockdown


thats their worst case scenario, estimated 1 year ago



so you don't know how many it saved do ya, it could have been 40k, it could have been 10k


december and jan showed the tip of the iceberg of what it could have been like

JDD

Hellrazer wrote: »

Well it didnt save 95k - so how about you tell me how many you think the lock downs saved preferably based on real data.


Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000




Now that figure is in hindsight and a year ago we didnt know what the death rate was - it could have been 10% - it could have been 20%

So yes lockdowns were called for in the beginning just in case it was 10% or higher.

However by the autumn last year we knew it was a fairly low percentage - WHO estimated it at 0.64% and there was no way that we were ever going to have 100k deaths. Lock downs were uncalled for at this low a death rate.

Not being pernickity, but isn't our death rate 2%? 223k cases, 4.5k deaths? I know we won't have picked up all cases in our tests, and certainly there's an amount of asymptomatic infections that didn't get picked up at all (though some would have through contact tracing and HCW/nursing home/meat factory weekly testing). If you're saying that the death rate is 0.1% in reality, that means that we've only picked up a twentieth of the real case numbers, that means the whole population has in fact already had covid and there's absolutely no need for vaccines?

Is that what you're saying?

monkeybutter

mcsean2163 wrote: »

None/ loads, we'll never know. Finland did ok without lockdown but Sweden did not etc.
.
Pro lockdown people will claim 90,000 lifes saved, anti lockdown people will say potential deaths exaggerated.

is this not the point, that was worst case scenario 1 year ago and things can change


finland are currently in lockdown or starting, I'm pretty sure they had some restrictions and sweden had less, so that explains the difference

ELM327

monkeybutter wrote: »

did you miss the rest of the year though?

Both got covid due to moronic personal stupidity, thats the tip of the iceberg

The vaccine delivery has only gotten started, maybe we should judge after the fact

they are moving towards opening up

you are lucky, you have an underlying condition that doesn't stop you getting a vaccine and you had the sense to treat it seriously

You might have only avoided it because the rest of the population were in lockdown

I avoided it because I left my house once per week, kept my distance, and wore a mask.


If everyone did this we wouldnt have theneed for a lockdown at all.

spaceHopper

Hellrazer wrote: »

Covids death rate as a % of the entire population is 0.08-0.09% - So even if every single man,woman and child in the state got covid and the death rate was 0.5% our deaths would only be 23500.If it was 1 % it would be 47000

The only death rate that counts is % of cases and if it was your loved one who died would you be OK with them being a statistic.

As it stands now it's a little under 2% but if we all got it over a very short time like 3 months there isn't a hope in hell our hospitals would be able to treat everybody who needed it so, deaths would sky rocket. So what would the cut off age where if you're over say 67, 70... it's to bad sorry we can't treat you.

ELM327

spaceHopper wrote: »

The only death rate that counts is % of cases and if it was your loved one who died would you be OK with them being a statistic.

As it stands now it's a little under 2% but if we all got it over a very short time like 3 months there isn't a hope in hell our hospitals would be able to treat everybody who needed it so, deaths would sky rocket. So what would the cut off age where if you're over say 67, 70... it's to bad sorry we can't treat you.

Or just keep your distance, wear a mask, practice good hand hygiene and you wont get it.

3 the square

Any chance the ploughing championships will go ahead in September ??

Hellrazer

JDD wrote: »

Not being pernickity, but isn't our death rate 2%? 223k cases, 4.5k deaths? I know we won't have picked up all cases in our tests, and certainly there's an amount of asymptomatic infections that didn't get picked up at all (though some would have through contact tracing and HCW/nursing home/meat factory weekly testing). If you're saying that the death rate is 0.1% in reality, that means that we've only picked up a twentieth of the real case numbers, that means the whole population has in fact already had covid and there's absolutely no need for vaccines?

Is that what you're saying?

Exactly that.What Ive highlighted above is the Case Fatality rate which is not a good indicator as not everyone is tested and some are asymptomatic so its always going to be higher.


Percentage as an over all % of the population is a better indicator and at 4.7 million population and 4452 deaths its only 0.093%

In over 65s its 0.6 % 700k (over65s) @ 0.6% is 4200 deaths.

Micky 32

Batattackrat wrote: »

Do people actually abide by the 5KM restrictions? Anyone I know don't whatsoever.

Thankfully the 5km doesn’t apply to me. Due to my work i can go anywhere ( i do 1000km a week). My partner lives 10km away but i can visit her because she lives on her own ( support bubble). This pandemic hasn’t affected my day to day life at all. The only thing is currently i can’t visit family in USA at the moment.

RGS

We are in a different space now than 12 months ago.
The right decision was taken in march 2020 to lockdown.

Now lockdown level 5 is the wrong decision. We need to move far more quickly to re opening society and the economy.

This is not a call to return to life as in 2019.

On 5 April MM should move the 5km limit to county boundaries--easier to patrol than the 5km limit.
Outdoor non contact sports should re commence immediately.
Children's sports should re commence training in pods as before.
Non essential retail should be opened.
Outdoor dining should be allowed.

By May we should be able to allow hotels open to guests and start to encourage staycations.
All sports should be able to re start including contact sports.

But we all know this is not going to happen. Government and NPHET will maintain the overly cautious approach, concern will be expressed over the various variants, known and unknown.
The phrase "we are not where we want to be" will be trotted out.

The fear is already been circulated by the government as per press briefing this morning as reported in the Journal.

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-patricks-day-9-5377259-Mar2021/

Its always the stick from our government.

HBC08

Hellrazer wrote: »

The lockdowns didnt save 95,000 people as was the "experts" predictions when covid entered Ireland.

Aren't you the guy who was trying to say 2.2m single dose j&j jabs were going to be here in the next 20 days?
Forgive me if youre not the man i go to for numbers or facts.