When will it all end?

TonyMaloney

Hellrazer wrote: »

Figures can be manipulated to get your point across but Ive done the maths on 13 european countries and the death rate as a % of population is always fairly constant @ 0.08 - 0.09 % of the entire population will die with covid and if you are over 65 then its 0.5 - 0.6%

Figures can certainly be manipulated. Speaking of which, what were the 13 countries you've used for this?
I strongly suspect you haven't used any of the better performing European countries at all.

Anyway, the percentage of a population that died of covid is not some pure number. It is of course heavily influenced by the quality and capacity of a given health care system, and the mitigating techniques nations used to suppress the virus.

And that's why nobody else seeks to use this metric in the way you seek to. It doesn't actually reflect the mortality rate of the disease at all.
CFR is flawed to the point of being almost useless, but what you're proposing is even worse.

HBC08

Hellrazer wrote: »

I linked to an article from our National broadcaster which has now been removed for obviously being incorrect.
And if you followed the thread I accepted it was incorrect.

My point is you believed what was obviously incorrect info,you didn't have the critical thinking or reasoning skills to know that there was no way it was true.
I didn't follow the thread and apologies that I didn't see you had seen the error.

TonyMaloney

HBC08 wrote: »

My point is you believed what was obviously incorrect info,you didn't have the critical thinking or reasoning skills to know that there was no way it was true.
I didn't follow the thread and apologies that I didn't see you had seen the error.

That's bloody harsh. He or she may be wrong here and there, but there's nothing wonky about Hell's brain function.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. You think that with c.65% of the population vaccinated , rates of hospitalisation and death will be low enough to avoid needing restrictions. And considering that You won't be making the decisions and Micheal Martin will, then it's not really about whether you think the rates will be low enough to stay restriction free. It will be up to them and they have been pretty risk averse up to now.

So the question is: With about 65% of the population vaccinated and without population level herd immunity and without restrictions in winter, will hospitalisations and deaths remain low enough so the MM won't consider restrictions necessary? The answer to that question is, very simply: We don't know yet, only time will tell.

I’ll repeat. Critical mass vaccinated= Low hospitalization = little or no restrictions. Come winter feel free to hide under your bed. The end of this is coming. The vaccines work,

The 65 % as you claim will be the ones that would most likely end up in hospital but they’ll be protected.

Now you wouldn’t be suggesting the vaccines don’t work and that they are a waste of time now would you??

Hellrazer

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Figures can certainly be manipulated. Speaking of which, what were the 13 countries you've used for this?
I strongly suspect you haven't used any of the better performing European countries at all.

Italy,Spain,UK,Czech republic, France,Belgium,Estonia , Ireland,Germany, IndiaNetherlands,US were the ones I can remember.

Anyway, the percentage of a population that died of covid is not some pure number. It is of course heavily influenced by the quality and capacity of a given health care system, and the mitigating techniques nations used to suppress the virus.

Its actually not - you can test it yourself if you wish. the UK and Czechia were anaomalies with higher rates .India had much lower rates for some reason - possible down to under reporting.

And that's why nobody else seeks to use this metric in the way you seek to. It doesn't actually reflect the mortality rate of the disease at all.
CFR is flawed to the point of being almost useless, but what you're proposing is even worse.

Thats fair enough but other data is even less reliable - at least this is consistent.

ypres5

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’ll repeat. Critical mass vaccinated= Low hospitalization = little or no restrictions. Come winter feel free to hide under your bed. The end of this is coming. The vaccines work,

The 65 % as you claim will be the ones that would most likely end up in hospital but they’ll be protected.

this has been said to him by me and other posters umpteen times but it doesn't seem to make any difference to him

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

Big big difference between me making that choice for our family, rather than government enforcement on everyone.
If I were 21 and in good health I'd be very annoyed.



If you keep your distance and wear a mask you will not get it.
One of my friends (couple + 1 special needs child), the mrs got it but the husband and child did not. And they are sharing a 3 bed semi and the man and woman sharing a bed.



Keeping isolated by enforcement has done it, but it's like using a hammer to crack a nut. Unwieldy and excessive.

look o the family, maybe they had it already


maybe a false negative


for eveyone I know this lad who licked a window and didn't get it there are 100 who did


one person in the house got it, the rest did


i know 5 families who one person spread to all at xmass, basically thats how anyone i know who go it recently got it like that


a few more from schools and playschool and a few in nursing homes



you can be 21 and annoyed all you want, sure it'll toughed em up

TonyMaloney

Hellrazer wrote: »

Italy,Spain,UK,Czech republic, France,Belgium,Estonia , Ireland,Germany, IndiaNetherlands,US were the ones I can remember.

There's going to be a huge difference between Czech rep. and say Norway.
The virus is not less lethal in Norway, there are clearly other factors at play.

Hellrazer wrote: »

Its actually not - you can test it yourself if you wish. the UK and Czechia were anaomalies with higher rates .India had much lower rates for some reason - possible down to under reporting.

I've no idea what's going on with India either. It's weird.

Hellrazer wrote: »

Thats fair enough but other data is even less reliable - at least this is consistent.

It is consistent, but what is it truly a measure of? That's the problem with it. It's really more a guide for how well a nation coped, rather than the mortality rate of the virus itself.

I guarantee you if you expand on the 13 countries you'll see it varies wildly. Include NZ for the craic.

Into month 6 now where inter county travel has only being permitted for 8 days of that half a year.

Let that sink in...

Hellrazer

TonyMaloney wrote: »

There's going to be a huge difference between Czech rep. and say Norway.
The virus is not less lethal in Norway, there are clearly other factors at play.

Czechia has a higher population with underlying conditions - thats probably why.

I've no idea what's going on with India either. It's weird.

Ive tried to get more data but India seems to be fairly bad at reporting a lot of covid related issues.

It is consistent, but what is it truly a measure of? That's the problem with it. It's really more a guide for how well a nation coped, rather than the mortality rate of the virus itself.

Id have to say that its a more of a measure of the mortality than CFR or IFR.

Even when tested against other countries regardless of other external issues the one that sticks out is that in almost all these countries the death rate in over 65s is still between 92-93 % as a total of all deaths in that country.

I guarantee you if you expand on the 13 countries you'll see it varies wildly. Include NZ for the craic.

NZ has basically been a country in lock down with no inward travel since last year. And its an interesting one.

Its never going to be an easy one to compare though.

But here goes.

4.91 million population.
26 covid deaths - death rate of 0.0005 %
Over 65s - 495600 - Death rate .005%

So lock down has probably saved them 2450 deaths.

Sobit1964

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ive tried to get more data but India seems to be fairly bad at reporting a lot of covid related issues.

One thing is for sure - its not tens of millions of dead as some of the the statistically challenged members of the church of concern would indicate might happen.

And this is without any of the first world standards that Ireland enjoys.

batman_oh

Deleted User wrote: »

Into month 6 now where inter county travel has only being permitted for 8 days of that half a year.

Let that sink in...

And it's going to be late July (based on level 4 not kicking in until mid May) before it's restored. So that will be 9 months of it in a row - completely unheard of anywhere else. Add in the amount of time it was limited last spring and summer and you have an absolute farce

ELM327

monkeybutter wrote: »

look o the family, maybe they had it already


maybe a false negative


for eveyone I know this lad who licked a window and didn't get it there are 100 who did


one person in the house got it, the rest did


i know 5 families who one person spread to all at xmass, basically thats how anyone i know who go it recently got it like that


a few more from schools and playschool and a few in nursing homes



you can be 21 and annoyed all you want, sure it'll toughed em up

What is your fetish for lockdown?

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’ll repeat. Critical mass vaccinated= Low hospitalization = little or no restrictions. Come winter feel free to hide under your bed. The end of this is coming. The vaccines work,

The 65 % as you claim will be the ones that would most likely end up in hospital but they’ll be protected.

Now you wouldn’t be suggesting the vaccines don’t work and that they are a waste of time now would you??

I know you're repeating, you're not really engaging with the question though.

I totally understand your assertion (it's so stripped of any nuance and simplified that it's really not a difficult assertion to understand). The only problem is that we don't have enough information to make that assertion, yet. The opposite to what you're doing would be to claim that there will definitely be lockdowns next winter. I'm not doing that we don't have enough information to make that claim either. What I am saying is that we don't have enough information to make the of either definite lockdown or definitely no restrictions.

The vaccines work really well. They don't work 100%, but nobody suggested they work 100%. What we do have is good evidence that the vaccine dramatically reduced transmissions, hospitalisations and deaths in lockdown conditions where interactions are severely limited. So the question is whether they work well enough, with about 65% of the population vaccinated, in winter, without restrictions. And the real question is whether MM and NPHET will consider the hospitalisation and death rate low enough to not reimpose any restrictions. Truth is we don't know yet.

drunkmonkey

Good news from lilly, today, our boys may start using this treatment and lift all restrictions asap. No reason to continue lockdown between treatments for anyone and vaccinations for the at risk

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-idUSKBN2B21C0

Batattackrat

The way some posters act is that if you get the virus you will be hospitalized and die. I'd recommend these posters to stay away from the media.

Tazz T

Hellrazer wrote: »

NZ has basically been a country in lock down with no inward travel since last year. And its an interesting one.

Its never going to be an easy one to compare though.

But here goes.

4.91 million population.
26 covid deaths - death rate of 0.0005 %
Over 65s - 495600 - Death rate .005%

So lock down has probably saved them 2450 deaths.

Certainly interesting, but even with fully vaccination, it will be more interesting to see what happens if/when they finally open. Zero-Covid is a zero tested strategy in pandemic methodology. Completely unexplored territory.

As for India, it really is the classic let it rip scenario. One huge wave that led to crowded cities hitting herd immunity. You can see now six months later, another slow rise in infections due to immunity wearing off/new variants. The reasons for lower death could be that, as has been suggested elsewhere, is that the virus has some genetic predisposition. Probably a combination of that and poor reporting.

monkeybutter

ELM327 wrote: »

What is your fetish for lockdown?

I don't have one


are you anti vax? a flat earther?


are you thinking of becoming one


We should tackle this with sense and caution


which is what is happening


anyone who thinks the current situation is actually tough, needs to have a good hard look at themselves

Monster249

monkeybutter wrote: »

I don't have one


are you anti vax? a flat earther?


are you thinking of becoming one


We should tackle this with sense and caution


which is what is happening


anyone who thinks the current situation is actually tough, needs to have a good hard look at themselves

Comparisons of this nature don't work in practice. If you follow your logic I sincerely hope you have never once complained about anything in your life.

Hellrazer

Tazz T wrote: »

Certainly interesting, but even with fully vaccination, it will be more interesting to see what happens if/when they finally open. Zero-Covid is a zero tested strategy in pandemic methodology. Completely unexplored territory.

Ive a feeling that its not the end for NZ - they`ll be hit with a huge wave of infections as soon as they open up even a small bit - they`ll have no immunity at all .

BringBackMick

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ive a feeling that its not the end for NZ - they`ll be hit with a huge wave of infections as soon as they open up even a small bit - they`ll have no immunity at all .

Theyll be hit by all sorts of virus.

We will be hit hard by flu and colds next year aswell.

Also NZ death rate will surely run above average once they open up.

Nature will always find a way unfortunately.

Tazz T

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ive a feeling that its not the end for NZ - they`ll be hit with a huge wave of infections as soon as they open up even a small bit - they`ll have no immunity at all .

Incidentally where are you getting your stats for death percentages?

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Good news from lilly, today, our boys may start using this treatment and lift all restrictions asap. No reason to continue lockdown between treatments for anyone and vaccinations for the at risk

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-idUSKBN2B21C0

You obviously haven't heard the headline news? Almost no change in lockdown until mid May, its just been on the 4pm News.

hynesie08

Deleted User wrote: »

You obviously haven't heard the headline news? Almost no change in lockdown until mid May, its just been on the 4pm News.

Except for the changes in April.......

Monster249

hynesie08 wrote: »

Except for the changes in April.......

The fact is that by current trends, the position we'll be in at April 5th is sufficient to upgrade to level 3. The anger from people is reflecting that fact.

jackryan34

ELM327 wrote: »

If you keep your distance and wear a mask you will not get it.
One of my friends (couple + 1 special needs child), the mrs got it but the husband and child did not. And they are sharing a 3 bed semi and the man and woman sharing a bed.

.

She wasn't contagious then

Go into a nursing home or Covid ward where it's in the air and your getting the virus

Mask and that 2m distance won't protect you.

Nursing homes have had 90% of staff get infected with PPE on.

FlubberJones

hynesie08 wrote: »

Except for the changes in April.......

Agreed , they literally have to do something in April, just look at these covid threads since they started the usual dripping about what they will and primarily won't do.

monkeybutter

Monster249 wrote: »

Comparisons of this nature don't work in practice. If you follow your logic I sincerely hope you have never once complained about anything in your life.

no somethings are tough


some aren't


so they do work


or is it easier you have it the more you complain

Monster249

monkeybutter wrote: »

no somethings are tough


some aren't


so they do work


or is it easier you have it the more you complain

Nothing's tough compared to growing up in Africa or being born deaf, blind and dumb.

That's a ridiculous outlook and doesn't work in western societies.

Plumbthedepths

A few wind up merchants out and about today on the Covid threads. I suppose people have to get their kicks somewhere.