When will it all end?

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

You obviously haven't heard the headline news? Almost no change in lockdown until mid May, its just been on the 4pm News.

The numbers won't be there to justify it continuing that long, we have a non invasive cure, that should be the end of restrictions.
It's pretty much eradicated in the country at the moment, what was it 17 county's with under 10 cases yesterday which may even be historical cases and a few countries with no cases.

HansKroenke

monkeybutter wrote: »

I don't have one


are you anti vax? a flat earther?


are you thinking of becoming one


We should tackle this with sense and caution


which is what is happening


anyone who thinks the current situation is actually tough, needs to have a good hard look at themselves

The blind faith in the elusive flat curve/zero covid and clinging to the dogmatic view that lockdowns are necessary makes those supporting restrictions seem like they have more in common with anti-vaxxers and flat-Earthers. It even makes sense to call you "flat-curvers" and "anti-relaxxers".

monkeybutter

HansKroenke wrote: »

The blind faith in the elusive flat curve/zero covid and clinging to the dogmatic view that lockdowns are necessary makes those supporting restrictions seem like they have more in common with anti-vaxxers and flat-Earthers. It even makes sense to call you "flat-curvers" and "anti-relaxxers".

nah its the flat earthers and anit vaxers are the problem i'm afraid


the reason they had entrance exams into secondary school


ask Tommy Tierney about that one

Quantum Baloney

monkeybutter wrote: »

ask Tommy Tierney about that one

Do you have his number?

monkeybutter

Monster249 wrote: »

Nothing's tough compared to growing up in Africa or being born deaf, blind and dumb.

That's a ridiculous outlook and doesn't work in western societies.

look i agree there are children starving in africa and it must have been hard on ya when your mammy wanted you to clear you plate


obviously still traumatized from that by the looks of it



There are plenty of people in western society that have it hard


just cause you have it plush doesn't mean no sun holiday this year is booh hoo hard for ya


you just need to suck it up, toughed up

monkeybutter

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

Do you have his number?

i did but hes gone all uppity now he is on the RTE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sowPM89BRyc

Multipass

This loon is now trying to use the flu to scare us.

https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

Mr Varadkar said problems next winter could not be ruled out as “not only could Covid come back next winter, we could also have the return of other respiratory illnesses.

The Tánaiste confirmed there was not one case of flu confirmed in Ireland this winter.

“That has never happened in my lifetime or recollection, but the flu hasn’t gone away. One of the concerns is that these respiratory illnesses return with a vengeance next winter and we have less immunity”.

jackryan34

Multipass wrote: »

This loon is now trying to use the flu to scare us.

https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

Mr Varadkar said problems next winter could not be ruled out as “not only could Covid come back next winter, we could also have the return of other respiratory illnesses.

The Tánaiste confirmed there was not one case of flu confirmed in Ireland this winter.

“That has never happened in my lifetime or recollection, but the flu hasn’t gone away. One of the concerns is that these respiratory illnesses return with a vengeance next winter and we have less immunity”.

The return of the Flu

What the hell is going on?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know you're repeating, you're not really engaging with the question though.

I totally understand your assertion (it's so stripped of any nuance and simplified that it's really not a difficult assertion to understand). The only problem is that we don't have enough information to make that assertion, yet. The opposite to what you're doing would be to claim that there will definitely be lockdowns next winter. I'm not doing that we don't have enough information to make that claim either. What I am saying is that we don't have enough information to make the of either definite lockdown or definitely no restrictions.

The vaccines work really well. They don't work 100%, but nobody suggested they work 100%. What we do have is good evidence that the vaccine dramatically reduced transmissions, hospitalisations and deaths in lockdown conditions where interactions are severely limited. So the question is whether they work well enough, with about 65% of the population vaccinated, in winter, without restrictions. And the real question is whether MM and NPHET will consider the hospitalisation and death rate low enough to not reimpose any restrictions. Truth is we don't know yet.

You don’t need the vaccines to work 100%. However with all the data that’s available they work well enough to stop hospitalizations from being overwhelmed. That’s what matters.

So mid May now with no promise of ending lockdown then either. That will be 8 months of lockdown with just 3 weeks of slightly less restrictions over Christmas and just 8 days of Inter county travel allowed thus far.

We have being one of the worst in the world at handling this if you consider the whole picture such as the economy, national debt, cancer screenings, mental health of the majority of the country and of course Covid.

Ultimately it was easier for our politicians to do nothing and let the people suffer and pay for the consequences.

I can’t wait for the day when they knock on my door looking for votes.

FlubberJones

Deleted User wrote: »

So mid May now with no promise of ending lockdown then either. That will be 8 months of lockdown with just 3 weeks of slightly less restrictions over Christmas and just 8 days of Inter county travel allowed thus far.

We have being one of the worst in the world at handling this if you consider the whole picture such as the economy, national debt, cancer screenings, mental health of the majority of the country and of course Covid.

Ultimately it was easier for our politicians to do nothing and let the people suffer and pay for the consequences.

I can’t wait for the day when they knock on my door looking for votes.

So they carry on with this farce... My next question is how quick can I get away for a holiday or two or three...

Allinall

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So mid May now with no promise of ending lockdown then either. That will be 8 months of lockdown with just 3 weeks of slightly less restrictions over Christmas and just 8 days of Inter county travel allowed thus far.

We have being one of the worst in the world at handling this if you consider the whole picture such as the economy, national debt, cancer screenings, mental health of the majority of the country and of course Covid.

Ultimately it was easier for our politicians to do nothing and let the people suffer and pay for the consequences.

I can’t wait for the day when they knock on my door looking for votes.

Surely doing nothing would be leaving businesses open, not putting travel restrictions in place etc.

Much more difficult politically to do what they’re doing.

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’ll repeat. Critical mass vaccinated= Low hospitalization = little or no restrictions. Come winter feel free to hide under your bed. The end of this is coming. The vaccines work.

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.

Micky 32

Scotty # wrote: »

Waffle waffle waffle and more waffle

I have been explaining how it works but like the other poster it’s not registering.

Once again like others you are comparing last year and last December, how is that relevent to December 2020 ( no vaccinations) vs December 2021(vaccinated). You really need to learn the difference between the two. Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

The CDC have now come out with that vaccinated people can be in a enclosed area with other vaccinated without masks. Not all experts agree on everything. Whether you like it or not it’s coming to and end.

lee_baby_simms

Allinall wrote: »

Much more difficult politically to do what they’re doing.

Not really. Shutting down the country indefinitely “because NPHET advised us to” is extremely easily.

Coming up with plans to focus protect, invest money in ICU capacity and rapid test procedures while slowly opening up the economy is much harder.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.

No they won’t because we’ll run out of money eventually anyways. And then we’ll have worse things to worry about.

We can’t keep borrowing 20 billion a year

Hellrazer

Tazz T wrote: »

Incidentally where are you getting your stats for death percentages?

Ive worked it backwards from deaths per population as a percentage and then deaths per population over 65s as a percentage.

Most countries report those numbers.

What I need is someone whos decent with excel to help me put this into a spread sheet and try get a 100 or so countries into it.
I can use excel but Im useless at the formula side of things.

Any one want to help out?

lee_baby_simms

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have been explaining how it works but like the other poster it’s not registering.

Once again like others you are comparing last year and last December, how is that relevent to December 2020 ( no vaccinations) vs December 2021(vaccinated). You really need to learn the difference between the two. Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

I love your optimism Mickey but if you think any kind of meaningful normal will resume this year then you’re going to be disappointed.

Vaccine efficacy amongst the all important older demographic is still very much in question.

Micky 32

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I love your optimism Mickey but if you think any kind of meaningful normal will resume this year then you’re going to be disappointed.

Vaccine efficacy amongst the all important older demographic is still very much in question.

By autumn winter things will change.

Scotty #

Micky 32 wrote: »

Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

None so blind as those who will not see.

Our hospital spike, the one I am referring to, was in 2021. Less than 8 weeks ago.

I should have known it would go straight over your head. Ahh well. I tried.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

By autumn winter things will change.

Scotty # wrote: »

None so blind as those who will not see.

Our hospital spike, the one I am referring to, was in 2021. Less than 8 weeks ago.

I should have known it would go straight over your head. Ahh well. I tried.

Were we vaccinated 8 weeks ago? See what i mean. If you read my post i’m talking about December 2021.

yer man!

Seems like Belgium has had enough and is extending the interval between pfizer doses to 5 weeks.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/159253/boost-for-belgiums-vaccination-campaign-more-time-between-two-pfizer-doses-interministerial-health-conference-superior-health-council-ema-taskforce/

I hope the irish government will do a copy and paste

Doctor Jimbob

Scotty # wrote: »

None so blind as those who will not see.

Our hospital spike, the one I am referring to, was in 2021. Less than 8 weeks ago.

I should have known it would go straight over your head. Ahh well. I tried.

How many people were vaccinated at the time of that spike?

jackryan34

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have been explaining how it works but like the other poster it’s not registering.

Once again like others you are comparing last year and last December, how is that relevent to December 2020 ( no vaccinations) vs December 2021(vaccinated). You really need to learn the difference between the two. Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

Paint us a scenario then Micky?

It works is something a child can say

Prove yourself

The scenario

1 million kids and pregnant women can't get a vaccine

1 million refuse to get an emergency approved vaccine

3 million have been vaccinated

2 million have not

Vaccine is 95% efficacious

5% are not protected and can be infected and of those 5% not protected , 2.5% are at risk of hospitalisation

We stop all restrictions in the October with 50 cases per day

Flu is back in circulation with no restrictions

What happens next?

How many cases and hospitalisations do we have of Covid in January?

How do the 3 months of Oct to Jan go with 2 million with no vaccine and 95% efficacious vaccines

Micky 32

jackryan34 wrote: »

Paint us a scenario then Micky?

It works is something a child can say

Prove yourself

The scenario

1 million kids and pregnant women can't get a vaccine

1 million refuse to get an emergency approved vaccine

3 million have been vaccinated

2 million have not

Vaccine is 95% efficacious

5% are not protected and can be infected and of those 5% not protected , 2.5% are at risk of hospitalisation

We stop all restrictions in the October with 50 cases per day

Flu is back in circulation with no restrictions

What happens next?

How many cases and hospitalisations do we have in January?

I have already explained what i think. What’s January 2021 got to do with it? Hardly anyone vaccinated, learn the difference.

Trials are ongoing of the cohort you’re waffling about. Chances are all will be approved by end of year.

jackryan34

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have already explained what i think. What’s January 2021 got to do with it? Hardly anyone vaccinated, learn the difference.

Trials are ongoing of the cohort you’re waffling about. Chances are all will be approved by end of year.

Read the scenario again

Use the data I provided

Show me how its possible to have a winter in with no restrictions

I'll simplify it for you

2 million not vaccinated

3 million vaccinated

How does winter go?

bucketybuck

monkeybutter wrote: »

they are moving towards opening up

Really?

So when is that happening then? Cite?

Klonker

Scotty # wrote: »

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.

Load of waffle there, don't know where to start but will just pick a few parts.

You said 20 - 30% won't get vaccinated and thats might be true but still seems on the low side. But in the High risk areas (over 60s or compromised people) it will be over 90% and probably closer to 100%. If healthy 18 - 30s don't get vaccinated and it may be lower numbers here it won't have much if any effect on hospital or icu numbers.

Vaccinated people are a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus which will help break down chains of transmission so you can't just say 25% unvaccinated will result in one quarter getting infected compared if no one was vaccinated. That's not how these thing work, it would be a lot less infections than 25%.

Micky 32

jackryan34 wrote: »

Read the scenario again

Use the data I provided

Show me how its possible to have a winter in with no restrictions

I'll simplify it for you

2 million not vaccinated

3 million vaccinated

How does winter go?

I guess it doesn’t register with you does it. Kids will eventually be approved in months to come. Anyway i’ll explain it to you again.

The adults, old and vulnerable are getting vaccinated. They are the ones mostly causing hospitals to fill up, deaths also. Once the majority of them are inoculated you’ll see hospitalizations plummet.
If you aren’t able to understand this there’s nothing more i can do for you.

Rodin

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You are deluded.Tell that to the tens of thousands of small business owners up and down the country.

Plenty of businesses still going if their van'a presence on the road is anything to go by.
If the regulation were enforced we wouldn't still be at over 600 cases a day.

The high levels of circulating disease are one reason why this "lockdown" will drag on even longer.