When will it all end?

Sobit1964

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I might take some time off to reflect on what you've said, and I also might not.

I've no idea what's going on in the main thread these days, though I've heard it's gone to ****e

Indeed it has. No hard feelings btw - I hope everything is good with you, and im sure we both agree the sooner things get normal again the better.

hynesie08

Sobit1964 wrote: »

This is great news. Mirrors the UK - its time to start considering that this nightmare is over.

It's not over, but we're negotiating the terms of surrender. The most important thing is to get out as safely as possible and never going back in.

Lundstram

HansKroenke wrote: »

Extremely promising. All we need is to get the vaccine numbers up and that's the end of this. I feel there are people who are not appreciating how close to the end of all restrictions we actually are.

I feel you're over estimating the capabilities of the HSE and government. The rollout has been one cock up after another. Missed targets - by a lot, failure to deliver vaccines to 200 gp practices and the awful communication.

We are nowhere near the end of these restrictions. MM said earlier there will be very little if any easing in April.

Their overly conservative approach will continue to the bitter end.

TonyMaloney

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Indeed it has. No hard feelings btw - I hope everything is good with you, and im sure we both agree the sooner things get normal again the better.

None at all.

You seem quite affable when you're not giving my buddy the dude a hard time for being entirely correct.

that got quite bitchy towards the end. sorry, I meant the first bits too

W123-80's

Risteard81 wrote: »

Or would it be exactly the same?

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that indeed it would be. There is no evidence for these so-called "lockdowns" or other totalitarian impositions on our lives. Absolutely no evidence whatsoever...

I don't understand your point.

Are you suggesting the surge we had in Dec/Jan would have happened either way?

Are you suggesting if restaurants, pubs and nightclubs were opened and filled like it was 2019 at Christmas it would have had zero additional effect on the devastating case numbers?

Are you suggesting the lockdown we are all currently experiencing is totally futile in the fight to suppress case numbers and keep vunerable people safe?

TonyMaloney

W123-80's wrote: »

I don't understand your point.

Are you suggesting the surge we had in Dec/Jan would have happened either way?

Are you suggesting if restaurants, pubs and nightclubs were opened and filled like it was 2019 at Christmas it would have had zero additional effect on the devastating case numbers?

Are you suggesting the lockdown we are all currently experiencing is totally futile in the fight to suppress case numbers and keep vunerable people safe?

As Risteard says, there is no evidence that separating an infected person from an uninfected person stops the spread of the virus.

I think what he's getting at is that covid must travel through windows unimpinged

normanoffside

Hellrazer wrote: »

NZ has basically been a country in lock down with no inward travel since last year. And its an interesting one.

Its never going to be an easy one to compare though.

But here goes.

4.91 million population.
26 covid deaths - death rate of 0.0005 %
Over 65s - 495600 - Death rate .005%

So lock down has probably saved them 2450 deaths.

Has it actually saved them 2450 deaths, or has it just saved them 2450 deaths with/elated to Covid.

That’s the question people should be asking when assessing the efficacy of their lockdown and isolation strategy.

Batattackrat

normanoffside wrote: »

Has it actually saved them 2450 deaths, or has it just saved them 2450 deaths with/elated to Covid.

That’s the question people should be asking when assessing the efficacy of their lockdown and isolation strategy.

As morbid as it sounds how many people were on the way out already that died or close to it.

Does the population of 4,900,000 have to suffer because someone died a few weeks sooner with covid.

TonyMaloney

normanoffside wrote: »

Has it actually saved them 2450 deaths, or has it just saved them 2450 deaths with/elated to Covid.

That’s the question people should be asking when assessing the efficacy of their lockdown and isolation strategy.

I've just asked myself your question several times and now I feel a bit dizzy.

What does it mean?

normanoffside

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I've just asked myself your question several times and now I feel a bit dizzy.

What does it mean?

I’m not sure what is so confusing?
How many of the 2450 lives potentially ‘saved’ from dying with Covid in NewZealand over the last year have actually passed due to old age or some other ailment anyway.

TonyMaloney

normanoffside wrote: »

I’m not sure what is so confusing?
How many of the 2450 lives potentially ‘saved’ from dying with Covid in NewZealand over the last year have actually passed due to old age or some other ailment anyway.

oh, sorry

12

Risteard81

W123-80's wrote: »

I don't understand your point.

Are you suggesting the surge we had in Dec/Jan would have happened either way?

Are you suggesting if restaurants, pubs and nightclubs were opened and filled like it was 2019 at Christmas it would have had zero additional effect on the devastating case numbers?

Are you suggesting the lockdown we are all currently experiencing is totally futile in the fight to suppress case numbers and keep vunerable people safe?

Yes I am. I'm stating that it's all absolute nonsense.

The virus will spread. These social control measures do sweet didly squat to alter its trajectory. And there is overwhelming evidence that what I am stating is true.

TonyMaloney

Risteard81 wrote: »

Yes I am. I'm stating that it's all absolute nonsense.

The virus will spread. These social control measures do sweet didly squat to alter its trajectory. And there is overwhelming evidence that what I am stating is true.

What about all the countries where the virus control measures worked really quite well, Risteard?

I've heard your evidence is overwhelming, so please, overwhelm me with facts.
Drench me in facts, Risteard!

Risteard81

TonyMaloney wrote: »

What about all the countries where the virus control measures worked really quite well, Risteard?

You made that claim, so you provide the evidence to verify its veracity.

Arghus

Risteard81 wrote: »

Yes I am. I'm stating that it's all absolute nonsense.

The virus will spread. These social control measures do sweet didly squat to alter its trajectory. And there is overwhelming evidence that what I am stating is true.

Well all of that is clearly untrue.

Of course measures alter the trajectory of the disease. They've already done do. Several times. It's not credible for people to still be making claims like this at this stage of the game.

Restrictions reduce social interaction and contact in a population. This virus spreads through social interaction and contact. If you have more interaction and social contact you'll have more virus, and if you have less of it, then you'll have less of it. All of that is really inarguble.

I understand people can argue about their relative effectiveness and cost etc - but to suggest they simply don't work at all and the amount of virus would be the same regardless? That's just plain silly.

W123-80's

Risteard81 wrote: »

Yes I am. I'm stating that it's all absolute nonsense.

The virus will spread. These social control measures do sweet didly squat to alter its trajectory. And there is overwhelming evidence that what I am stating is true.

Grand

I wouldn’t say that lockdown/restrictions don’t work at all. But I don’t think they are anywhere near as effective as some people think. Look at Sweden. They’ve done ok without the need for endless lockdowns.

There is plenty of evidence that shows that the illness peaks all over Europe at the same times. It usually lasts several weeks before dying off to smaller numbers. It equally hits countries regardless of 5km restrictions or 9 euro meals etc

Lockdowns help to an extent. But it gets harder to justify when you factor in the sunk costs, unemployment, rising national debt and so on

The effectiveness of lockdowns also wanes after a few weeks as people struggle to cope with the inhumanity of having their rights removed for so long.

But at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if Ireland tried to remain in lockdown for the majority of 2021. Regardless of numbers. There will always be excuses to remain locked down.

Batattackrat

Batattackrat wrote: »

As morbid as it sounds how many people were on the way out already that died or close to it.

Does the population of 4,900,000 have to suffer because someone died a few weeks sooner with covid.

There's a common idea that people are terrible with big numbers. Like how conceptualise a billion compared to a million compared to a thousand.

What Covid-19 has taught me is that big numbers means anything over 60. People see a 70-year-old die and think well they were close to death anyway, when in reality they could have lived to 80. That's the same length of time between 20 and 30, but it's deemed to be a "few weeks".

the kelt

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You clearly underestimate what I'm prepared to use when I run out of toilet paper.

And yes it is a discussion, and our friend dude here has a valid, informed opinion on the matter that people are harassing him for.
Essentially at the moment this particular thread is a bit pointless. I think that's the very valid point he's making within the thread. You all seem to hate the poor dude for it.

Maybe people are just fed up being told the same point again and again and again and again which basically says well you can’t predict the future on a thread where people are contributing to, to try and predict the future!!

On a thread where people are actively discussing what might happen in the future.

“Well we don’t really know what’s going to happen and when it will end, this might happen or that might happen”

Yeah we get that, valid point and very true but this is a thread where the title kinda gives it away and people come to discuss when they think this will end.

“Well we don’t really know what’s going to happen and when it will end, this might happen or that might happen”

Again yes valid point but it’s looking very good with the vaccine efficiency etc.

“Well we don’t really know.......

It’s like going on to one of the sports forums discussing upcoming championships etc and declaring well we can’t tell the future so don’t know what’s going to happen, again and again again.

It’s a valid point but guess what, we know that we can’t tell the future etc.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Lockdowns help to an extent. But it gets harder to justify when you factor in the sunk costs, unemployment, rising national debt and so on

The economy will bounce back as soon as we get this vaccine rolled out, but we should be doing more to protect the jobs that are effected, rising national debt isn't really much of a problem, it's just the public entity of the money supply, growing deficits are good, as we need a growing money supply in order expand and grow our economy out of this mess

drunkmonkey

Why are we waiting for Vaccines, Merck and Eli Lilly both have treatments now that stop Covid in it's tracks as the person is no longer infections after 24hrs and has an excellent chance of not ending up in hospital. If these were available at the start of the pandemic there would be no lockdown.

Irish Stones

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

El_Duderino 09

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Reported for trolling.

Back on subject - its going to end when people stop getting tested, when the vulnerable, the elderly, and those who really want a vaccine are able to get it - im not so sure its going to be possible to maintain test numbers.

Lol. I doubt you did. Unless the report function is now for reporting posters whose opinions you disagree with.

If people stopped getting tested, then the metric would gave to adapt to the new behaviour and would become more focused on hospitalisation and deaths. The number of transmissions would have to switch to an estimate based on extrapolation rather than relying on the positive case numbers. It would increase uncertainty. And our government has erred on the side of caution when faced with uncertainty.

Min other words, increased uncertainty would probably extend the restrictions rather than shorten it.

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

Your assesment of the article and the article itself don't match up tbh.

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

Perhaps time for different careers if they aren’t comfortable?

El_Duderino 09

TonyMaloney wrote: »

The point you've been forced to rehash again and again is entirely correct.

There isn't a soul in the country or outside of it that can tell you what's going to happen or when. We're in wait and see mode, measuring the impact of slowly reopening things.

If someone is telling you with any degree of certainty what's gonna happen in April, May or whenever, then they're clearly unaware of what we and many other countries are currently doing. Or they could just be waffling their holes off.

Oh and dude, you should report those abusive posts you received. Water off a ducks back I'm sure, but the day might come when your impressively laidback demeanour cracks and you say something naughty. These very same people will report the **** out of you for it.
That's the game unfortunately.

Thanks Tony.

I can see why people are inclined to want certainty. Certainty, even when imagined, is much easier to deal with than an uncertain reality. We all want restrictions to end and the thoughts of another winter with restrictions is difficult. But it’s much better to deal with reality on reality’s terms. And the reality is that we don’t know how it will go next winter. It might go great without any need for restrictions, and it might not go great, requiring some restrictions.

I’m not into the game of reporting posts. But I think the way people get so cross about posts they disagree with, shows how difficult it is to think about the possibility of more restrictions next winter.

The good news is that whatever else happens, the summer will likely be great. Lots of opportunities to see family and friends and get back towards normality. Whether that will continue throughout the winter remains to be seen.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Whether that will continue throughout the winter remains to be seen.

Nothing absolutely nothing, all restrictions will be over for the general public. Once we have a safe at home treatment in good supply that's the end of it. Molnupiravir stops Covid spread and disease progression, Leo mentioned it in January and we know have even more evidence.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The economy will bounce back as soon as we get this vaccine rolled out, but we should be doing more to protect the jobs that are effected, rising national debt isn't really much of a problem, it's just the public entity of the money supply, growing deficits are good, as we need a growing money supply in order expand and grow our economy out of this mess

I’m not so sure that the economy will bounce back as strong as people think. Ultimately, normality is just normal.

People will obviously flock back to the pubs and have nights out but I think it will be short lived before settling back into routine.

People who have saved big won’t want to blow it and people who were unemployed won’t be going mental. And lots of the savings will end up going on foreign holidays.

I’d say after 2 or 3 months of normality everything will settle down again.

stefanovich

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

What they don't trust is the unions.

GooglePlus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Nothing absolutely nothing, all restrictions will be over for the general public. Once we have a safe at home treatment in good supply that's the end of it. Molnupiravir stops Covid spread and disease progression, Leo mentioned it in January and we know have even more evidence.

This is still in R&D, when could we expect it in pharmacies, if all went well with the other phases of trials?