When will it all end?

W123-80's

Risteard81 wrote: »

Yes I am. I'm stating that it's all absolute nonsense.

The virus will spread. These social control measures do sweet didly squat to alter its trajectory. And there is overwhelming evidence that what I am stating is true.

Grand

I wouldn’t say that lockdown/restrictions don’t work at all. But I don’t think they are anywhere near as effective as some people think. Look at Sweden. They’ve done ok without the need for endless lockdowns.

There is plenty of evidence that shows that the illness peaks all over Europe at the same times. It usually lasts several weeks before dying off to smaller numbers. It equally hits countries regardless of 5km restrictions or 9 euro meals etc

Lockdowns help to an extent. But it gets harder to justify when you factor in the sunk costs, unemployment, rising national debt and so on

The effectiveness of lockdowns also wanes after a few weeks as people struggle to cope with the inhumanity of having their rights removed for so long.

But at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if Ireland tried to remain in lockdown for the majority of 2021. Regardless of numbers. There will always be excuses to remain locked down.

Batattackrat

Batattackrat wrote: »

As morbid as it sounds how many people were on the way out already that died or close to it.

Does the population of 4,900,000 have to suffer because someone died a few weeks sooner with covid.

There's a common idea that people are terrible with big numbers. Like how conceptualise a billion compared to a million compared to a thousand.

What Covid-19 has taught me is that big numbers means anything over 60. People see a 70-year-old die and think well they were close to death anyway, when in reality they could have lived to 80. That's the same length of time between 20 and 30, but it's deemed to be a "few weeks".

the kelt

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You clearly underestimate what I'm prepared to use when I run out of toilet paper.

And yes it is a discussion, and our friend dude here has a valid, informed opinion on the matter that people are harassing him for.
Essentially at the moment this particular thread is a bit pointless. I think that's the very valid point he's making within the thread. You all seem to hate the poor dude for it.

Maybe people are just fed up being told the same point again and again and again and again which basically says well you can’t predict the future on a thread where people are contributing to, to try and predict the future!!

On a thread where people are actively discussing what might happen in the future.

“Well we don’t really know what’s going to happen and when it will end, this might happen or that might happen”

Yeah we get that, valid point and very true but this is a thread where the title kinda gives it away and people come to discuss when they think this will end.

“Well we don’t really know what’s going to happen and when it will end, this might happen or that might happen”

Again yes valid point but it’s looking very good with the vaccine efficiency etc.

“Well we don’t really know.......

It’s like going on to one of the sports forums discussing upcoming championships etc and declaring well we can’t tell the future so don’t know what’s going to happen, again and again again.

It’s a valid point but guess what, we know that we can’t tell the future etc.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Lockdowns help to an extent. But it gets harder to justify when you factor in the sunk costs, unemployment, rising national debt and so on

The economy will bounce back as soon as we get this vaccine rolled out, but we should be doing more to protect the jobs that are effected, rising national debt isn't really much of a problem, it's just the public entity of the money supply, growing deficits are good, as we need a growing money supply in order expand and grow our economy out of this mess

drunkmonkey

Why are we waiting for Vaccines, Merck and Eli Lilly both have treatments now that stop Covid in it's tracks as the person is no longer infections after 24hrs and has an excellent chance of not ending up in hospital. If these were available at the start of the pandemic there would be no lockdown.

Irish Stones

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

El_Duderino 09

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Reported for trolling.

Back on subject - its going to end when people stop getting tested, when the vulnerable, the elderly, and those who really want a vaccine are able to get it - im not so sure its going to be possible to maintain test numbers.

Lol. I doubt you did. Unless the report function is now for reporting posters whose opinions you disagree with.

If people stopped getting tested, then the metric would gave to adapt to the new behaviour and would become more focused on hospitalisation and deaths. The number of transmissions would have to switch to an estimate based on extrapolation rather than relying on the positive case numbers. It would increase uncertainty. And our government has erred on the side of caution when faced with uncertainty.

Min other words, increased uncertainty would probably extend the restrictions rather than shorten it.

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

Your assesment of the article and the article itself don't match up tbh.

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

Perhaps time for different careers if they aren’t comfortable?

El_Duderino 09

TonyMaloney wrote: »

The point you've been forced to rehash again and again is entirely correct.

There isn't a soul in the country or outside of it that can tell you what's going to happen or when. We're in wait and see mode, measuring the impact of slowly reopening things.

If someone is telling you with any degree of certainty what's gonna happen in April, May or whenever, then they're clearly unaware of what we and many other countries are currently doing. Or they could just be waffling their holes off.

Oh and dude, you should report those abusive posts you received. Water off a ducks back I'm sure, but the day might come when your impressively laidback demeanour cracks and you say something naughty. These very same people will report the **** out of you for it.
That's the game unfortunately.

Thanks Tony.

I can see why people are inclined to want certainty. Certainty, even when imagined, is much easier to deal with than an uncertain reality. We all want restrictions to end and the thoughts of another winter with restrictions is difficult. But it’s much better to deal with reality on reality’s terms. And the reality is that we don’t know how it will go next winter. It might go great without any need for restrictions, and it might not go great, requiring some restrictions.

I’m not into the game of reporting posts. But I think the way people get so cross about posts they disagree with, shows how difficult it is to think about the possibility of more restrictions next winter.

The good news is that whatever else happens, the summer will likely be great. Lots of opportunities to see family and friends and get back towards normality. Whether that will continue throughout the winter remains to be seen.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Whether that will continue throughout the winter remains to be seen.

Nothing absolutely nothing, all restrictions will be over for the general public. Once we have a safe at home treatment in good supply that's the end of it. Molnupiravir stops Covid spread and disease progression, Leo mentioned it in January and we know have even more evidence.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The economy will bounce back as soon as we get this vaccine rolled out, but we should be doing more to protect the jobs that are effected, rising national debt isn't really much of a problem, it's just the public entity of the money supply, growing deficits are good, as we need a growing money supply in order expand and grow our economy out of this mess

I’m not so sure that the economy will bounce back as strong as people think. Ultimately, normality is just normal.

People will obviously flock back to the pubs and have nights out but I think it will be short lived before settling back into routine.

People who have saved big won’t want to blow it and people who were unemployed won’t be going mental. And lots of the savings will end up going on foreign holidays.

I’d say after 2 or 3 months of normality everything will settle down again.

stefanovich

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can it all end when you read that even HSE don't fully trust vaccines?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/fully-vaccinated-hse-staff-off-work-due-to-health-reasons-told-to-stay-at-home-1.4506513

What they don't trust is the unions.

GooglePlus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Nothing absolutely nothing, all restrictions will be over for the general public. Once we have a safe at home treatment in good supply that's the end of it. Molnupiravir stops Covid spread and disease progression, Leo mentioned it in January and we know have even more evidence.

This is still in R&D, when could we expect it in pharmacies, if all went well with the other phases of trials?

seansouth36

Arghus wrote: »

Well all of that is clearly untrue.

Of course measures alter the trajectory of the disease. They've already done do. Several times. It's not credible for people to still be making claims like this at this stage of the game.

Restrictions reduce social interaction and contact in a population. This virus spreads through social interaction and contact. If you have more interaction and social contact you'll have more virus, and if you have less of it, then you'll have less of it. All of that is really inarguble.

I understand people can argue about their relative effectiveness and cost etc - but to suggest they simply don't work at all and the amount of virus would be the same regardless? That's just plain silly.

Everything that poster says is untrue. He's like a child who's mother won't let him out to play due to rain constantly moaning that it's not actually raining and everything is fine. A deluded man.

Irish Stones

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Your assesment of the article and the article itself don't match up tbh.

Well, the article says that HSE is unsure if letting vaccinated people (with health issues) keep working in frontline activities fearing the chance of possible legal actions should a worker fall sick after the vaccine.

drunkmonkey

GooglePlus wrote: »

This is still in R&D, when could we expect it in pharmacies, if all went well with the other phases of trials?

Expected during the summer, Leo mentioned it in January, I hope to hell they've put in an order and haven't been caught sleeping again, it's already being used in some countries. USA orders are in. As far as I know it's an Irish team behind it.

Batattackrat

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0310/1203255-consumers-reluctant-to-return-to-in-store-shopping/

More BS from Rte

Plumbthedepths

Irish Stones wrote: »

Well, the article says that HSE is unsure if letting vaccinated people (with health issues) keep working in frontline activities fearing the chance of possible legal actions should a worker fall sick after the vaccine.

Thanks for the reply, it doesn't change my original comment.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I can see why people are inclined to want certainty. Certainty, even when imagined, is much easier to deal with than an uncertain reality. We all want restrictions to end and the thoughts of another winter with restrictions is difficult. But it’s much better to deal with reality on reality’s terms. And the reality is that we don’t know how it will go next winter.

Of course life is full of uncertainties. I mean who’s to say if i’ll be around next winter, easy to get hit by a bus.

If you want to go by what politicians say Leo did say this “ nobody could say for certain that there wouldn’t be another lockdown”. I do get that. That’s not a confirmation but maybes, possibilities etc

However he then goes on to say “ he said the vaccine data was “very positive”, with all vaccines showing “close to 100pc effectiveness in preventing severe illness, hospitalisation and death”. That’s the very important part. If that holds true and we have the most important people vaccinated ( as we are doing now) we are less likely to have problems at the end of the year. The chances are quite low that we will need further lockdowns in my opinion. I think it’s more likely we won’t have lockdowns than we will have.

In the words of Joe Biden “ There is real reason for hope folks, I promise you,"

Coillte_Bhoy

Batattackrat wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0310/1203255-consumers-reluctant-to-return-to-in-store-shopping/

More BS from Rte

They are merely reporting a study, why have a go at them?

Batattackrat

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

They are merely reporting a study, why have a go at them?

Because I know those numbers are BS, 71% do not fear going shopping FFS

Hector Savage

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

They are merely reporting a study, why have a go at them?

Because they are hell bent on pushing the fear fear fear angle, and stay at home forever crap.

I'd like to know who took part in the study, a bunch of people that regularly listen to their shyte no doubt.

No balance.

SnuggyBear

Next report. 67% of people are scared to go into their back garden.

Plumbthedepths

Batattackrat wrote: »

Because I know those numbers are BS, 71% do not fear going shopping FFS

Yeah the poll suggests 71% must get their food delivered as they are too afraid to venture into a shop.

opinionated3

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

They are merely reporting a study, why have a go at them?

Cos it's a load of tosh. Who did they survey? Tomas Ryan, Gerry Killeen and their families??!!
Anyone i know is absolutely desperate to get back to normality, including my elderly acquaintances. That includes shops, restaurants, pub etc. I've yet to hear a single comment against.

FlubberJones

It seems that the government only care about kids in schools and hospital bed numbers, neither of which are a concern to me.

AdamD

Meanwhile, 6% say they will never feel comfortable shopping in-store on their local high street - ever again.


That's..worrying

Coillte_Bhoy

Batattackrat wrote: »

Because I know those numbers are BS, 71% do not fear going shopping FFS

So you've done your own professional survey too? Well done. Nowhere does it say 71% fear going shopping either.