When will it all end?

ingo1984

Scotty # wrote: »

Abysmal numbers this week.

Just 1% drop in the 7-day average from last Saturday to today.

We need to either enforce lockdown more or introduce more restrictions if we are to have any hope of easing restrictions this side of 2022.

Date|7Day Avg.|Change
02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|-280%
16/01/2021|4,150|34%
23/01/2021|2,343|44%
30/01/2021|1,303|44%
06/02/2021|1,035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%
06/03/2021|531|19%
13/03/2021|526|1%

What were you expecting when the schools reopened partially a couple of weeks ago. The governemnt are stringing us along saying the numbers have to keep driving down whilst they are reopening the schools as we go along.

Monster249

Scotty # wrote: »

Abysmal numbers this week.

Just 1% drop in the 7-day average from last Saturday to today.

We need to either enforce lockdown more or introduce more restrictions if we are to have any hope of easing restrictions this side of 2022.

Date|7Day Avg.|Change
02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|-280%
16/01/2021|4,150|34%
23/01/2021|2,343|44%
30/01/2021|1,303|44%
06/02/2021|1,035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%
06/03/2021|531|19%
13/03/2021|526|1%

Ah yes. The answer to people not adhering to the current restrictions is more restrictions. You'd make a fine NPHET board member.

LessOutragePlz

Scotty # wrote: »

Abysmal numbers this week.

Just 1% drop in the 7-day average from last Saturday to today.

We need to either enforce lockdown more or introduce more restrictions if we are to have any hope of easing restrictions this side of 2022.

Date|7Day Avg.|Change
02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|-280%
16/01/2021|4,150|34%
23/01/2021|2,343|44%
30/01/2021|1,303|44%
06/02/2021|1,035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%
06/03/2021|531|19%
13/03/2021|526|1%

What further restrictions would you suggest?

Last time I checked we are fairly restricted at the moment.

Scotty #

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Hardly abysmal

9000 cases per day in January, now that was abysmal

Absolutely abysmal.

Whether we ease restrictions or not depends on the current trend and the current trend is abysmal.

PCeeeee

Scotty # wrote: »

It's only 6 weeks since we had the highest infection rate in the world. Easing out of that is going to be slow and steady.

Progress will as you say be slow and steady but we numbers wise are already, right now in a very favourable position in worldwide terms.

Scotty #

Monster249 wrote: »

Ah yes. The answer to people not adhering to the current restrictions is more restrictions. You'd make a fine NPHET board member.

Yes. There's ALWAYS going to be a certain % that don't adhere to restrictions. They allow for that. If current efforts don't work you increase them. It's really not rocket science.

Mr. Karate

Scotty # wrote: »

But these numbers are given every day. It's your news source that's only relaying case numbers if that's all you hearing. Change your news source.

Vaccine info here > https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/vaccinations

No wonder they never tell us how many been vaccinated in the daily misery porn figures. Only 570K have been vaccinated [409K with first jab, 160K with second jab] those are pathetic numbers. Varadkar maybe wasn't being as flippant as people thought when he talked about having a lost decade. It will take that long to get everyone vaccinated at the rate they're going.

Monster249

Scotty # wrote: »

Yes. There's ALWAYS going to be a certain % that don't adhere to restrictions. They allow for that. If current efforts don't work you increase them. It's really not rocket science.

That's not working though is it genius?

If people aren't adhering to the already over-conservative restrictions, what makes you think people will abide by harsher ones? That really is a terrible take.

PCeeeee

Scotty # wrote: »

Yes. There's ALWAYS going to be a certain % that don't adhere to restrictions. They allow for that. If current efforts don't work you increase them. It's really not rocket science.

If I could use a cliche. The beatings will continue until morale improves?

Scotty #

Monster249 wrote: »

That's not working though is it genius?

If people aren't adhering to the already over-conservative restrictions, what makes you think people will abide by harsher ones? That really is a terrible take.

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

Doctor Jimbob

Scotty # wrote: »

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

You know, I'd actually prefer if we had done all of that back in the January peak rather than the prolonged, half-assed lockdown we have now.

Monster249

Scotty # wrote: »

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

You have yet to address why you think people will adhere to stricter restrictions when they're not adhering to the current ones?

I.E. what makes you think people will adhere to a curfew when they're not adhering to a 5k radius?

You can't use the example from a different country. Different countries haven't been in lockdown for 9 months. Harsher restrictions work when used sparingly, our government have used them too much and now they're not as effective.

Therefore fighting back with even harsher restrictions are only going to alienate the people who are adhering and piss off the people who aren't even more.

It's dangerous that a human being can't see that & can't recognize the practical, human element of this stuff.

PCeeeee

Scotty # wrote: »

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

What Monster is suggesting is that compliance is diminishing (forgive me Monster if that is a misrepresentation).

This is as people start to rebel against what they see as unsustainable or disproportionate restrictions. This will not be fixed by increasing restrictions.

Lockdown is a tool. It is finite. Overuse will blunt it. The government and NPHET need to be cognisant of this.

RGS

Case numbers are totally irrelevant, the testing criteria is changed at the drop of a hat.

We have high numbers as per January stop testing close contacts.

Numbers come down lets test close contacts. What do you expect to happen if you test more people?

We need to look at hospitation and ICU numbers, which at the moment are dropping.

As for imposing more restrictions as per scotty, that's just idiotic. Why not just lock us indoors and have the army deliver take aways for a month.

Scotty #

PCeeeee wrote: »

What Monster is suggesting is that compliance is diminishing (forgive me Monster if that is a misrepresentation).

This is as people start to rebel against what they see as unsustainable or disproportionate restrictions. This will not be fixed by increasing restrictions.

Lockdown is a tool. It is finite. Overuse will blunt it. The government and NPHET need to be cognisant of this.

Yea, you might be right. I don't know.

I'm not calling for the gov to introduce more restrictions but apart from somehow getting people to adhere to the current ones what other option is there?? Crossing our fingers and hoping for the best won't work. We were on target to hit double figures for cased by early May, at 1% per week it will be some time in 2024!

RGS

PCeeeee wrote: »

What Monster is suggesting is that compliance is diminishing (forgive me Monster if that is a misrepresentation).

This is as people start to rebel against what they see as unsustainable or disproportionate restrictions. This will not be fixed by increasing restrictions.

Lockdown is a tool. It is finite. Overuse will blunt it. The government and NPHET need to be cognisant of this.

They were aware of it last year but have overplayed their hand because NPHET have them by the short & curlies. Now when NPHET say lockdown MM and Leo go ok for how long.

Scotty #

RGS wrote: »

Case numbers are totally irrelevant, the testing criteria is changed at the drop of a hat.

We need to look at hospitation and ICU numbers, which at the moment are dropping.

Case numbers today give a ballpark figure of hospitalisations in 10 days or so which in turn give an ICU figure a few days later. Not an exact science but they are an indication of what's to come.

PCeeeee

Scotty # wrote: »

Yea, you might be right. I don't know.

I'm not calling for the gov to introduce more restrictions but apart from somehow getting people to adhere to the current ones what other option is there?? Crossing our fingers and hoping for the best won't work. We were on target to hit double figures for cased by early May, at 1% per week it will be some time in 2024!

First off I don't know. I think it's fair to say there are no easy answers.

But our leaders have gone all in on lockdowns as a means of disease control. Contact tracing is minimal. Hospital capacity is still poor. Vax is slow due to supply admittedly but still not an option.

The public are not stupid. They see that. They see that the cupboard is bare. The arbitrary nature of stone restrictions (5km esp) is grating. Public buy in for compliance is necessary. This is not China. And we are erroding that.

thebiglad

Scotty # wrote: »

Case numbers today give a ballpark figure of hospitalisations in 10 days or so which in turn give an ICU figure a few days later. Not an exact science but they are an indication of what's to come.

Not necessarily, if you look at what has happened in the UK and the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing serious illness or hospitalisation - we have vaccinated most over 85's and working on the next groups so even with just 1 jab these groups are less likely to be infected and therefore as they were more likely hospitalised the 600 per day cases should see a lower percentage hospitalised.

As more of the vulnerable groups are vaccinated (even 1st dose) the impact of the virus on those who do get it should be manageable with a few days in bed and self-isolation at home.

ypres5

Scotty # wrote: »

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

CalamariFritti

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

ypres5

CalamariFritti wrote: »

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

'you don't need to be a genius to...' is the final one to complete the hat trick

xhomelezz

ypres5 wrote: »

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

Well, the basics is to limit social contacts to control the spread..yet some still didn't get it..

PCeeeee

xhomelezz wrote: »

Well, the basics is to limit social contacts to control the spread..yet some still didn't get it..

Do you best limit social contacts by limiting the distance people can travel?

Bit cynical

I think behind a lot of this is the ideal of zero-covid; the idea that with severe enough restrictions transmission will be reduced to zero and, once achieved, restrictions can be lifted and things can get back to normal.

The problem is, of course, that severe restrictions have no lasting effect. As soon as they are lifted, cases start increasing again, and then you have to reimpose restrictions to keep those cases low. Moreover, during the restrictions people learn to circumvent them resulting in even stricter measures being necessary the second time around. Restrictions create the need for more and heavier restrictions.

This is the problem we're having in Ireland at present. We started off overusing lockdowns and restrictions of various sorts early on (admittedly with huge public support) and now we're stuck with them but with less and less to show for it as time goes on.

Dickie10

so if people dont go forward for testing case numbers go down. people wont get sick in large numbers as a lot of vulnerable are already vaxxed.

Rodin

Scotty # wrote: »

Case numbers today give a ballpark figure of hospitalisations in 10 days or so which in turn give an ICU figure a few days later. Not an exact science but they are an indication of what's to come.

The case numbers were more closely linked to hospital/ICU admissions pre-vaccine.

It is too early to know the relationship now when nursing homes and many older people are now vaccinated.

Scotty #

CalamariFritti wrote: »

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

ypres5 wrote: »

'you don't need to be a genius to...' is the final one to complete the hat trick

Why does your side of the discussion always revert to these pointless attacking posts? I posted facts and opinion. If you disagree then explain why. Attacking me when you hear something you don't want to hear just makes you look childish.

Scotty #

ypres5 wrote: »

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

Ireland is one of only 9 countries in Europe where the numbers are coming down (or were, up til this week). In 31 countries the numbers are going up, in some, seriously so.

Our lockdowns have worked. This one has now stopped working mainly due to complacency IMO. If we are to get out of lockdown any time in the next 12 months then we need to seriously get our numbers down further. How do you suggest we do that? Vaccinating probably isn't being done fast enough to have a significant impact for the next several months.

Scotty #

Scotty # wrote: »

Ireland is one of only 9 countries in Europe where the numbers are coming down (or were, up til this week). In 31 countries the numbers are going up, in some, seriously so.

Our lockdowns have worked. This one has now stopped working mainly due to complacency IMO. If we are to get out of lockdown any time in the next 12 months then we need to seriously get our numbers down further. How do you suggest we do that? Vaccinating probably isn't being done fast enough to have a significant impact for the next several months.

I am very pro restrictions to get this down, but there needs to be some thought here. People are fed up, mixed signals etc.. I want to get a stira in my house for example, 1 guy in my house while I am at work, can't do it. I want to get my front drive redone, can't do it. Then I see vans outside loads of houses and construction going on, even saw new foundations going in at the back of a private housing estate. Did I condemn them, no I don't, people need an outlet and I don't see an issue with 1 or 2 guys doing work especially outside. Even if they banned internal work in a house being lived in but allowed external. I haven't got work done obiding the restrictions, I bought my house in Jan last year, had to live nearly in a building site during the first lockdown as everything just stopped, now I would like to get a few more things done and I can't.

I know you are going to reply the restrictions are necessary, I truly believe it was the pubs and socialising settings that caused the spikes in October and December, I don't think construction or basic retail did.

Why don't the shops be given an option that if they open it has to be extended,example being penneys, that should open 24 hours for the first week then only be allowed open if they open from 8am to 9pm every night. Restricting times baffled me, that herded more people in in a shorter time frame, id gladly go do my shopping later and always do with grocery shopping