When will it all end?

pgj2015

Hector Savage wrote: »

Can you imagine the brothels after all this ????

Jaysus ....

The type of people who visit brothels wont let something like covid put them off going now.

Hector Savage

pgj2015 wrote: »

The type of people who visit brothels wont let something like covid put them off going now.

Don't know about that now, I know they are suffering where I live - legal btw ...

pgj2015

Hector Savage wrote: »

Don't know about that now, I know they are suffering where I live - legal btw ...

Ireland is different.

ShineOn7

Hector Savage wrote: »

Can you imagine the brothels after all this ????

Jaysus ....

Made me proper laugh

And I'm not even into hookers

TomSweeney

Was saying to my son last week that I believe this winter is the last tough time during all this and by spring/summer a good proportion of us will be vaccinated and things should start to get back to normal, with summer 2022 being almost back like it was before.

Depressingly after seeing the news of the vaccine resistant strains - and more deadly strains it seems - I firmly believe this will never end.

Unless they come up with a plan to live with it and put serious investment in new hospitals, and not hide away hoping the vaccines will work(looks like they won't), I cannot see anything else but yo yo lockdowns for decades at least...


It's kids I really feel for, missing out on so much over this bullsh1t.

dwayneshintzy

TomSweeney wrote: »

Was saying to my son last week that I believe this winter is the last tough time during all this and by spring/summer a good proportion of us will be vaccinated and things should start to get back to normal, with summer 2022 being almost back like it was before.

Depressingly after seeing the news of the vaccine resistant strains - and more deadly strains it seems - I firmly believe this will never end.

Unless they come up with a plan to live with it and put serious investment in new hospitals, and not hide away hoping the vaccines will work(looks like they won't), I cannot see anything else but yo yo lockdowns for decades at least...


It's kids I really feel for, missing out on so much over this bullsh1t.

Things are bad, and have been bad, and it's hard to keep positive. I get that for sure.


But it's not healthy to be thinking like this. This is not something that will have us locked down for decades.

ZX7R

TomSweeney wrote: »

Was saying to my son last week that I believe this winter is the last tough time during all this and by spring/summer a good proportion of us will be vaccinated and things should start to get back to normal, with summer 2022 being almost back like it was before.

Depressingly after seeing the news of the vaccine resistant strains - and more deadly strains it seems - I firmly believe this will never end.

Unless they come up with a plan to live with it and put serious investment in new hospitals, and not hide away hoping the vaccines will work(looks like they won't), I cannot see anything else but yo yo lockdowns for decades at least...


It's kids I really feel for, missing out on so much over this bullsh1t.

Show me one scientific paper that shows that there is a strain of covid that is 100% resistant to any of the vaccines.
And doesn't contain the word MAY.

saabsaab

TomSweeney wrote: »

Was saying to my son last week that I believe this winter is the last tough time during all this and by spring/summer a good proportion of us will be vaccinated and things should start to get back to normal, with summer 2022 being almost back like it was before.

Depressingly after seeing the news of the vaccine resistant strains - and more deadly strains it seems - I firmly believe this will never end.

Unless they come up with a plan to live with it and put serious investment in new hospitals, and not hide away hoping the vaccines will work(looks like they won't), I cannot see anything else but yo yo lockdowns for decades at least...


It's kids I really feel for, missing out on so much over this bullsh1t.

It's a worry that's for sure but there is grounds for hope if we can roll out the vaccine(s) around the world before serious strains can develop.

El_Duderino 09

Hector Savage wrote: »

What problem would it be at that stage ? tell us ?
When most are vaccinated and hospitals wont get slammed whats the problem?

You are part of this problem - people like you love this and want it to go on and on and on and on ....

Do you genuinely not get it or are you just playing the part of someone who doesn’t get it?

Ok. I’ll spell it out. The more people who get the virus, the more people end up in hospital. The idea that it’s only people over 70 who need hospitalisation, is untrue.

The current level of restrictions leads a few thousand transmission per day and that fills the hospitals. Lifting restrictions will increase transmissions. So, vaccinating the old and then going back to normal, will mean transmissions will go through the roof. Lots of people will have no ill effects but lots will need hospitalisation and die.

Now, let’s dispense with the notion that you care about the hospitals. If you did, then you’d have reached this conclusion on your own. The honest reason is that you want to get back to normal so you’re ignoring the reality of the situation and pretending you don’t understand the reasons why it’s not as simple as vaccinating the vulnerable and then go back to normal.

You say I’m part of the problem for wanting this to go on longer. I’m not. I don’t have any influence over the duration of restrictions, nor do i want it to go on any longer than necessary. I’m just realistic about how long the restrictions will be necessary for. And I think they’ll be necessary until pretty much everyone is vaccinated.

Can I presume that you’re not factoring in the newer, more transmissible variants?

El_Duderino 09

The EU had set a target of vaccinating 70% of the adult population by summer (I presume the mean by the end of the summer).

The adult population is about 80% of the overall population so that’s 80%*70%= 56%. So nobody is suggesting there will be herd immunity they end of summer. The target has to be to vaccinate enough to get through next winter without having to lock down again. And then try to get rid of covid (in as much as that’s possible) next year.

Masks and distancing are in for the foreseeable future. That’s just the reality.

Samsonsmasher

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you genuinely not get it or are you just playing the part of someone who doesn’t get it?

Ok. I’ll spell it out. The more people who get the virus, the more people end up in hospital. The idea that it’s only people over 70 who need hospitalisation, is untrue.

The current level of restrictions leads a few thousand transmission per day and that fills the hospitals. Lifting restrictions will increase transmissions. So, vaccinating the old and then going back to normal, will mean transmissions will go through the roof. Lots of people will have no ill effects but lots will need hospitalisation and die.

Now, let’s dispense with the notion that you care about the hospitals. If you did, then you’d have reached this conclusion on your own. The honest reason is that you want to get back to normal so you’re ignoring the reality of the situation and pretending you don’t understand the reasons why it’s not as simple as vaccinating the vulnerable and then go back to normal.

You say I’m part of the problem for wanting this to go on longer. I’m not. I don’t have any influence over the long to of restrictions, nor do i want it to go on any longer than necessary. I’m just realistic about how long the restrictions will be necessary for. And I think they’ll be necessary until pretty much everyone is vaccinated.

Can I presume that you’re not factoring in the newer, more transmissible variants?

People live near volcanoes and in earthquake zones and we accept deaths on the roads and deaths from booze and fags and deaths from air pollution and deaths from suicide and deaths from the cold and deaths from cancer and we all die in the end.

So we cannot and in time will not accept a permanent suspension of the economy society and our personal freedoms.

Covid is not going away. There will be a new variant every year and a new vaccine and people will die and most people will simply decide to take their chances and get on with it.

If you are vulnerable and you die? Too bad. That's just t.s.

saabsaab

2 million doses by June..

TomSweeney

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Things are bad, and have been bad, and it's hard to keep positive. I get that for sure.


But it's not healthy to be thinking like this. This is not something that will have us locked down for decades.

OK not decades, but years ...

ShineOn7

TomSweeney wrote: »

I firmly believe this will never end.

Unless they come up with a plan to live with it and put serious investment in new hospitals, and not hide away hoping the vaccines will work(looks like they won't), I cannot see anything else but yo yo lockdowns for decades at least...

I'm just in from a nice, crisp "clear the head" walk and this is the first thing I read here

Jaysus wept

I think we could all do with less time on here tbh

El_Duderino 09

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

People live near volcanoes and in earthquake zones and we accept deaths on the roads and deaths from booze and fags and deaths from air pollution and deaths from suicide and deaths from the cold and deaths from cancer and we all die in the end.

So we cannot and in time will not accept a permanent suspension of the economy society and our personal freedoms.

Covid is not going away. There will be a new variant every year and a new vaccine and people will die and most people will simply decide to take their chances and get on with it.

If you are vulnerable and you die? Too bad. That's just t.s.

While I think it’s very brave of you to call other people’s death “tough sh1t”, I think you’re just ignoring the obvious reality of the situation.

We view deaths differently all the time. Take terrorism as an example. If 20 people die by terrorists, and 20 people die by natural disaster or traffic accidents, we expect there to be totally different reactions.

There is a global efforts to deal with covid and you might think things will go back to normal on a random date, but the reality is that this year will have lots of restrictions, distancing and masks until the vaccine is completely rolled out. Then we’ll have to wait and see how it goes.

Factors which are unknown at the moment, but will have a huge impact on how things change will include:
1. How the vaccine mutates- will it become more transmissible? Or more dangerous?
2. Will all variations of the virus be covered by the current vaccine?
3. How people behave to minimise the transmission
4. How effective the vaccine is and how effectively they can roll out the vaccine ahead of next winter.

Those are a few questions we can’t answer at the moment and the answers will have huge impacts on the reopening and eventual return to normal.

Mr. Karate

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Things are bad, and have been bad, and it's hard to keep positive. I get that for sure.


But it's not healthy to be thinking like this. This is not something that will have us locked down for decades.

Despite all numbers trending downwards Michael Martin has pretty much committed to lockdown over Summer. I can see why people believe this will never end. They seem hell bent on keeping it going.

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm just in from a nice, crisp "clear the head" walk and this is the first thing I read here

Jaysus wept

I think we could all do with less time on here tbh

I know. I do try to understand the different positions of people in all of this. There's probably plenty who would recoil in horror when I say we will be in level 5 until March at least. My reasoning is that I'm trying to avoid the potential for crushing disappointment.

Are those who post like the person you responded to just trying to manage their expectations? What sort of a life did they have that they can bring themselves to consider constant lockdowns for years? How do they feel when they have those thoughts?

TimeUp

As of today 0.1 of the Americas' population have died because of the pandemic, 0.088 of Europe's 0.007 of Asia's 0.005 of Africa's and 0.002 of Oceania's.

Why do you think this whole thing has affected Western civilisation the most?

It really doesn't seem to be a big issue in Africa. It's not the richest countries cause rich countries in East Asia have handled it much better than the West, and South Korea, Taiwan or Japan cannot be thought of as the kind of authoritarian regime China is, so it cannot be put down to democracies being ineffective either.

What I wonder is whether it has anything to do with our way of living. Much more unnecessary movement of people in the West? Older people? But South Africa has one of the youngest populations in the world and has 8 times more deaths than Japan (the country with the oldest population in average).

I'm trying to come up with an explanation.

franciscanpunk

Whenever we can't afford it anymore. We had single digit cases last summer and it was still story number 1, we have set a precedent for this to drag on indefintely. As huge losses are already built into the budget this year cant see anything other than covid being the main part of our lives. 2022 probably similar . Maybe 2023 we will have to call a halt.

I am just trying to be realistic, even if vaccines were unaffected by any new muatations(possible) and everyone took the vaccine(unfortunately not going to happen) some people will still get sick from covid, some will still die, obviously not in the numbers we have seen this month but as we seen last summer there is no appetite from govt to fully reopen society or take risks so unfortunately this saga will go.

I find the whole thing disheartening and feel like my life is on hold but just trying to be honest. I think October 2022 when the 2023 budget is leaked might be a catalyst for change!

NIMAN

I think we will be keeping our distance and still wearing masks into next year at least.

Beasty

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Despite all numbers trending downwards Michael Martin has pretty much committed to lockdown over Summer. I can see why people believe this will never end. They seem hell bent on keeping it going.

You do realise we are not alone in this?

There are questions over the new variants, both their mortality rates, and the effectiveness of vaccines. Vaccine production is not as high as expected. No-one is going to commit to lifting lockdown while so much uncertainly remains, although I suspect the restrictions will change as these issues evolve or indeed resolve.

Irish_rat

When the world elite want it to end

dodzy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm just in from a nice, crisp "clear the head" walk and this is the first thing I read here

Jaysus wept

I think we could all do with less time on here tbh

I hear ya. It’s fûcking soul destroying reading this absolute shíte. Decades. FFS, get a grip.

SafeSurfer

dodzy wrote: »

I hear ya. It’s fûcking soul destroying reading this absolute shíte. Decades. FFS, get a grip.

Speculating that it will go on for decades is just as valid as speculating that it will “all be over by summer”.

Thespoofer

Ok here's my input for what it's worth.

Don't take my word on it but the guy( through work ) I got the info from has been spot on in regards to predicting lockdown, full lockdown, etc right down to the day announced ( apparently some high up contact his company does work for ).

Level 5 lockdown until end of March
Level 4 lockdown until end of April
Level 3 lockdown until end of May
Level 2+ lockdown June,July & August
Level 1 Lockdown September onwards depending if 3million + people vaccinated by then.

Time will tell.

funnydoggy

Irish_rat wrote: »

When the world elite want it to end

:rolleyes:

Hector Savage

funnydoggy wrote: »

:rolleyes:

He's got a point though.

It's all optics, changing spin + narrative this could all be over in the morning.

carq

TimeUp wrote: »

As of today 0.1 of the Americas' population have died because of the pandemic, 0.088 of Europe's 0.007 of Asia's 0.005 of Africa's and 0.002 of Oceania's.

Why do you think this whole thing has affected Western civilisation the most?

It really doesn't seem to be a big issue in Africa. It's not the richest countries cause rich countries in East Asia have handled it much better than the West, and South Korea, Taiwan or Japan cannot be thought of as the kind of authoritarian regime China is, so it cannot be put down to democracies being ineffective either.

What I wonder is whether it has anything to do with our way of living. Much more unnecessary movement of people in the West? Older people? But South Africa has one of the youngest populations in the world and has 8 times more deaths than Japan (the country with the oldest population in average).

I'm trying to come up with an explanation.

Interesting questions.
When this started spreading properly in april i thought the 3rd world would be rightly screwed. Lack of social distancing, huge populations and poor healthcare.
Maybe their reporting of numbers is equally poor but i would have expected the scenes in Italy and New York to be multiplied there.

Quazzie

Hector Savage wrote: »

He's got a point though.

It's all optics, changing spin + narrative this could all be over in the morning.

Please describe how it could "all be over in the morning". Please reference the
221 people currently in ICU beds in Ireland in your answer.

JDD

I find it absurd that people are factoring in a low uptake of the vaccine in determining how long this is going to go on for.

All we should really be caring about is that there is a very high uptake from the over 70's and vulnerable, and at least 50% uptake in people between the ages of 50-70.

Honestly, who cares if people under 50 take the vaccine or not? Seems to me that the conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers are mostly under 40 anyway. As long as the people who are most likely to die or be hospitalised with the virus are vaccinated, let everyone else catch covid in my opinion.

Yes, it will mean that covid will continue to circulate. So what? Yes, a thirty year old might infect an older person who ends up being hospitalised, but again, so what? If that older person decided not to get vaccinated, well I have little sympathy for them. And as long as the older cohort are mostly vaccinated, there shouldn't be so many of those hospitalisations that restrictions will be needed again.

As for 2022 and beyond, well no-one can say for sure how long vaccination will last for. It is a possibility, if annual vaccination is needed, that the uptake will drop at some point as the threat of covid retreats in people's minds. That being said, as long as the vaccine still works against whatever strain is still circulating (and it's likely it will) all we will need is some very temporary restrictions until uptake of the vaccine is back to acceptable levels.