When will it all end?

niallo27

Owldshtok wrote: »

Good for Florida.
Meanwhile parts of Brazil are in dire condition with status ‘purple’ and yes,bodies actually piling up,while places in the Southern Hemisphere seem to be on top of it,and different scenarios evolving regularly in each region of the world.

So masks (what ever about lockdowns) are clearly not necessary? Nothing is clear about this pandemic until it’s over.

You mean Brazil where the hospitals are streched to 80% capacity.

bucketybuck

I was watching the UK press briefing earlier today.

It was quite something. The health secretary himself out there talking rather than leaving it to a member of SAGE, that was good to see.

He was full of good news, of targets met, 25 million people received a vaccine, that almost 100% of UK people are now believed to have covid anti-bodies in their system. Talking in detail about what they are doing and where they are on their roadmaps. Answering questions from the public and telling one lady that she will be able to return to work at the end of the month, that everything is on track and talking about the plans for reopening.

And then the press questioned him aggressively on why more wasn't being done, why people in their 40's were having to wait, why the NHS was saying some supplies were delayed, why Dominic Cummins says they ****ed up on PPE, on if the roadmap dates still stood and why they couldn't open earlier...

It was night and day between that and the Irish version, where NEPHT go daily to have their balls fondled. And a good representation of why this pissant country is what it is.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m quite sure that’s what the poster meant, the most important that need vaccinating which is going to make the difference in this crisis.

Depends on what difference we want to make. To reduce harm and increase chances of lifting restrictions and keeping them off, we just need to vaccinate the older age groups. To achieve herd immunity, which will mean well most likely be able to confidently return to normal, we’ll need young people vaccinated too.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Depends on what difference we want to make. To reduce harm and increase chances of lifting restrictions and keeping them off, we just need to vaccinate the older age groups. To achieve herd immunity, which will mean well most likely be able to confidently return to normal, we’ll need young people vaccinated too.

Well the UK are aiming to lift all restrictions before the under 18’s are vaccinated. They don’t see them as an issue and rightly so because it’s not that cohort clogging the health systen.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Well the UK are aiming to lift all restrictions before the under 18’s are vaccinated. They don’t see them as an issue and rightly so because it’s not that cohort clogging the health systen.

Yeah. They’re hoping to lift restrictions in summer. Summer isn’t the dangerous season for covid, winter is. Winter will be the test of whether we can get through the winter without restrictions without the under 18s vaccinated.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. They’re hoping to lift restrictions in summer. Summer isn’t the dangerous season for covid, winter is. Winter will be the test of whether we can get through the winter without restrictions without the under 18s vaccinated.

Yeah, covid is dangerous for the old and vulnerable in winter alright if they aren’t vaccinated , but they’ll be vaccinated by then so shouldn’t pose much of a risk. We should have a normal winter IMO with advice like washing hands etc

Trials are ongoing for the under 18’s so i’d say they’ll be eligible for vaccination soon.

Bit cynical

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Winter will be the test of whether we can get through the winter without restrictions without the under 18s vaccinated.

If we're still wondering whether we'll need restrictions then that means we don't have enough information to lift restrictions. Which means we will have restrictions.

It means that even if we've had a very successful vaccination programme with 80% vaccinated, any slight rise in cases as winter approaches will mean the re-imposition of restrictions since we don't at that point know how effective those vaccinations will be. Then with restrictions reimposed we won't know whether it is restrictions keeping cases down or the vaccinations. This will be used as an argument to keep restrictions.

Dickie10

we really are a failed state and should be delighted if we were taken under the wing of UK again. we wont be going anywhere outside our county until late june early july, i expect no hospitality open til mid august , they will trow us two weeks before schools are back. but may just be a hotel , pubs prob wont be allowed open til mid september when they get the schools back the same as last summer when non food pubs were allowed open. can anyone remember the date the pubs without food opened and when they had to shut?

newuser99999

Dickie10 wrote: »

. can anyone remember the date the pubs without food opened and when they had to shut?

Last two weeks of September if I remember correctly

Dickie10

wow two weeks non food pubs open in over 12 months ! you really have to wonder after this last week where we will see all adults vaccinated by september . i think if they get them all vaccinated by xmas its more realistic.

seanod99

Went for a spin today around Cork,
Passage, ringaskiddy, crosshaven, Fountainstown, Kinsale,
everywhere was jammed, lots of food trucks and coffee, loads of cyclists and groups of motorbikes, people actually appearing to enjoy life. It's great to see people growing a pair.
I don't think I'm the only one when I say we can't let a virus that effects a tiny percent of the population control whole population for the foreseeable future with on/off lockdowns.

Tazz T

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ireland won’t get to 70% by June. We’d be doing well to get to 70% by the end of the year without the under 18s.

Might be possible to get to 70% of the adult population, but it’s unlikely by June. Where did June come from?

One million J&J coming in each month. April, May and June.

That's before what's done so far and Astra/Moderna/Pfizer incoming.

One jab makes the J&J a gamechanger.

giveitholly

Tazz T wrote: »

One million J&J coming in each month. April, May and June.

That's before what's done so far and Astra/Moderna incoming.

Thought we were only getting 600k J&J in Q2?

Tazz T

giveitholly wrote: »

Thought we were only getting 600k J&J in Q2?

It was 2.2 million, but it's being increased. Can't find the link now.

Think Dude might be right, somewhere between 70% and 80% of adults.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yeah, covid is dangerous for the old and vulnerable in winter alright if they aren’t vaccinated , but they’ll be vaccinated by then so shouldn’t pose much of a risk. We should have a normal winter IMO with advice like washing hands etc

Trials are ongoing for the under 18’s so i’d say they’ll be eligible for vaccination soon.

What would be the difference between having e.g. 80% adults vaccinated (around 60% of the population) and achieving herd immunity?

El_Duderino 09

Tazz T wrote: »

One million J&J coming in each month. April, May and June.

That's before what's done so far and Astra/Moderna/Pfizer incoming.

One jab makes the J&J a gamechanger.

That would work alright.

What has the record of contracted vaccines vs delivered vaccines, told us about what’s likely to happen to that estimate? I’ll believe it when they’re delivered.

stephenjmcd

Tazz T wrote: »

One million J&J coming in each month. April, May and June.

It's a 2.2 million total order, 600k of which is due for delivery in Q2 not the full 2.2 million

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What would be the difference between having e.g. 80% adults vaccinated (around 60% of the population) and achieving herd immunity?

You are doing your best to try and argue for restrictions to carry on, it’s quite obvious now. I have explained to you why i think lockdowns and feck all restrictions will be happening next winter, especially when the old and vulnerable cohort are vaccinated. It doesn’t seem to register. It’s delusion if people think businesses will be shut again next winter in a vaccinated world.

giveitholly

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It's a 2.2 million total order, 600k of which is due for delivery in Q2 not the full 2.2 million

Thought as much

El_Duderino 09

Tazz T wrote: »

It was 2.2 million, but it's being increased. Can't find the link now.

Think Dude might be right, somewhere between 70% and 80% of adults.

80% of adults might be as many as we can hope to take the vaccine by winter. Assuming we get the vaccine supplies before winter. We’ll have to see how many aren’t eligible and how many choose not to take the vaccine. The number of people refusing it is likely to rise in the summer as the problem recedes in the warmer weather and restrictions are loosened. There will be some people who can’t get it for medical reasons and others who can’t get it at the moment (pregnant or breastfeeding).

The vaccine passport idea might encourage more people to get the vaccine so that should bring the numbers up 80%of adults is about 60% of the total population. No telling how that will work out in winter. Might be fine, might need restrictions.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

You are doing your best to try and argue for restrictions to carry on, it’s quite obvious now. I have explained to you why i think lockdowns and feck all restrictions will be happening next winter, especially when the old and vulnerable cohort are vaccinated. It doesn’t seem to register. It’s delusion if people think businesses will be shut again next winter in a vaccinated world.

Ok. Could you answer the question in that post you quoted?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. Could you answer the question in that post you quoted?

I have no interest in answering your posts, you’re just like a broken record with the same waffle over and over. I have told you what i think. Once we get most people vaccinated, especially old and vulnerable and majority of adults restrictions will dwindle away. We don’t need 100% vaccinated.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have no interest in answering your posts, you’re just like a broken record with the same waffle over and over. I have told you what i think. Once we get most people vaccinated, especially old and vulnerable and majority of adults restrictions will dwindle away. We don’t need 100% vaccinated.

Yeah but it goes around and around but as soon as there’s an interesting question like the one I posted above, you change to be subject as you did in the last post, or refuse to engage as you did in this post above.

If you knew the answer to the question, and it suited your general argument, you’d have just answered it already.

Can you answer the question?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah but it goes around and around but as soon as there’s an interesting question like the one I posted above, you change to be subject as you did in the last post, or refuse to engage as you did in this post above.

If you knew the answer to the question, and it suited your general argument, you’d have just answered it already.

Can you answer the question?

I’m not answering any questions asked by you because you’ll answer with the same auld waffle over and over no matter how i answer it, it’s like a generic auto reply. I told you what i think is going to happen next winter. Whether some like it or not this is coming to an end.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m not answering any questions asked by you because you’ll answer with the same auld waffle. I told you what i think is going to happen next winter. Whether some like it or not this is coming to an end.

I know the opinion you hold. I asked you a question about the opinion you hold to see why you hold the opinion you hold.

Look it’s a simple enough question. If you can’t answer it, just say so.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know the opinion you hold. I asked you a question about the opinion you hold to see why you hold the opinion you hold.

Look it’s a simple enough question. If you can’t answer it, just say so.

Look , no one knows if your 60% will create herd immunity or not or exactly what percentage . No one knows that. But what i do know by the end of the year the cohort that are at high risk for hospitalization and deaths will be very low. Even now the effect is phenomenal already. That’s more important in the short term and will determine restrictions. Even the UK with their roadmap are hopeful of this. They will succeed. Wait until you see, restrictions will dwindle away in the UK during the summer. I’m guessing Ireland autumn.

markodaly

As per herd immunity, because of the new variants, most experts think that it's much higher than 60%. Could well be 80%-90%
Measles because it is so infectious needs 95% herd immunity.

Rodin

Will be six months before we're back to 'normal' or something akin to it.

Micky 32

Rodin wrote: »

Will be six months before we're back to 'normal' or something akin to it.

I agree, probably by end of the year we’ll be in a far better place.

Tokyo

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know the opinion you hold. I asked you a question about the opinion you hold to see why you hold the opinion you hold.

Look it’s a simple enough question. If you can’t answer it, just say so.

Mod: Quit browbeating the same question over and over.