When will it all end?

Tazz T

markodaly wrote: »

As per herd immunity, because of the new variants, most experts think that it's much higher than 60%. Could well be 80%-90%
Measles because it is so infectious needs 95% herd immunity.

It was thought that herd immunity appeared to be kicking in in big cities in India at around 60%.Recently infections have just begun to rise again, as immunity seems to be wearing off (six months since the peak).

India's model is unique due to overcrowding in cities. Just one huge wave, although this possible second wave seems to be hitting rural areas more (again, variants could be playing a role in this).

ELM327

bucketybuck wrote: »

I was watching the UK press briefing earlier today.

It was quite something. The health secretary himself out there talking rather than leaving it to a member of SAGE, that was good to see.

He was full of good news, of targets met, 25 million people received a vaccine, that almost 100% of UK people are now believed to have covid anti-bodies in their system. Talking in detail about what they are doing and where they are on their roadmaps. Answering questions from the public and telling one lady that she will be able to return to work at the end of the month, that everything is on track and talking about the plans for reopening.

And then the press questioned him aggressively on why more wasn't being done, why people in their 40's were having to wait, why the NHS was saying some supplies were delayed, why Dominic Cummins says they ****ed up on PPE, on if the roadmap dates still stood and why they couldn't open earlier...

It was night and day between that and the Irish version, where NEPHT go daily to have their balls fondled. And a good representation of why this pissant country is what it is.

It really shows how bad our governance is, when the likes of Bojo and his ilk are doing a better job.

Hector Savage

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. They’re hoping to lift restrictions in summer. Summer isn’t the dangerous season for covid, winter is. Winter will be the test of whether we can get through the winter without restrictions without the under 18s vaccinated.

The under 18's not being vaccinated is not going to clog the health system.
They need to stop using cases as a metric for this.

ujjjjjjjjj

ELM327 wrote: »

It really shows how bad our governance is, when the likes of Bojo and his ilk are doing a better job.

Look it's been like this for years and there is an understood rule in the Irish Media.

Don't go too heavy with a Minister or official and you will still have access - if you go all the heavy and start asking or demanding answers then you won't get access or interviews.

Hence why you have the same interviews over and over again - yes they will ask an awkward question but always let the minister answer or deflect it or simply head off on a tangent and then let it lie even though the question was never answered.

Be a bull in a china shop and actually demand answers and in time you stop getting interviews etc.

It's all totally pointless.

RTE and Newstalk are masters at it and now have a pile of sops calling themselves journalists for the most part.

The Primetime team are the worst of the bunch - they fire up a controversial rocket story and then interview a minister pretending to be all gung ho and journalistic and then allow the tangent to wander off or simply they happily sit there as the question isn't answered.

All best mates afterwards.

the kelt

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Look it's been like this for years and there is an understood rule in the Irish Media.

Don't go too heavy with a Minister or official and you will still have access - if you go all the heavy and start asking or demanding answers then you won't get access or interviews.

Hence why you have the same interviews over and over again - yes they will ask an awkward question but always let the minister answer or deflect it or simply head off on a tangent and then let it lie even though the question was never answered.

Be a bull in a china shop and actually demand answers and in time you stop getting interviews etc.

It's all totally pointless.

RTE and Newstalk are masters at it and now have a pile of sops calling themselves journalists for the most part.

The Primetime team are the worst of the bunch - they fire up a controversial rocket story and then interview a minister pretending to be all gung ho and journalistic and then allow the tangent to wander off or simply they happily sit there as the question isn't answered.

All best mates afterwards.

Yep thats it in a nutshell

I mean on Paddys Day ye had Simon Harris calling the CMO and the heads of the HSE etc Patriots!!!

Not a fookin word for the nurses, doctors, cleaners, caterers and everyone else in the HSE that break their preverbials day in day out, nah who are they after all?

And no one questions it, the situation a few days ago where an old lady showed a bit of weakness through her grief and got publically shamed on Live TV was the watershed notice for me and not one journalist/reporter questioned it.

A-holes the lot of them.

Kermit.de.frog

Experts should come first in a pandemic, not politicians.

Some seem to want the latter having primacy in a public health emergency.

Why? Don't know because once you get beyond name calling, begrudgery and conspiracy theory they have no argument at all.

We need more experts in decision making.

SnuggyBear

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Experts should come first in a pandemic, not politicians.

What about expert politicians?

Kermit.de.frog

SnuggyBear wrote: »

What about expert politicians?

Like Stephen Donnelly?

mikekerry

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Like Stephen Donnelly?

:eek:

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. So what's the difference between the scenario you keep outlining at 60%, and the scenario we'll have at herd immunity?

If 60% doesn't confer herd immunity (and I don't think anyone has been estimating that 60% will confer herd immunity) Then what are the likely scenarios for the coming winter?

I have already answered a million times what i think will happen next winter. You’re trolling now and a mod has already warned you.

Hellrazer

SnuggyBear wrote: »

What about expert politicians?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Like Stephen Donnelly?

Ah come on lads - I just spat Tea all over my keyboard!!!

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have already answered a million times what i think will happen next winter. You’re trolling now and a mod has already warned you.

Yeah, fair enough. I see the mod doesn't want me to ask that question again so I've deleted the post.

I take from your answer that you're basically assuming we'll have herd immunity at about 60%.

titan18

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Experts should come first in a pandemic, not politicians.

Some seem to want the latter having primacy in a public health emergency.

Why? Don't know because once you get beyond name calling, begrudgery and conspiracy theory they have no argument at all.

We need more experts in decision making.

Well we elect the politicians, not the "experts" (and considering they differ from loads of other experts, are we sure they are).

They can advise on decisions, they should never be making them. We elect politicians for that, so if they're not going to do it, why the fcuk are we paying them to do it. We're basically an oligarchy atm.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I take from your answer that you're basically assuming we'll have herd immunity at about 60%.

I already gave my answer on that yesterday. You’re assuming to suit your own narrative.

titan18

titan18 wrote: »

Well we elect the politicians, not the "experts" (and considering they differ from loads of other experts, are we sure they are).

They can advise on decisions, they should never be making them. We elect politicians for that, so if they're not going to do it, why the fcuk are we paying them to do it. We're basically an oligarchy atm.

Or do what they do in the UK, where the SAGE representative of the day SHARES a platform with the cabinet member, who fields the questions, and defers to the SAGE member on a matter of science only. The boundaries are clear. Not like here where NPHET own the platform

Coillte_Bhoy

the kelt wrote: »

Yep thats it in a nutshell

I mean on Paddys Day ye had Simon Harris calling the CMO and the heads of the HSE etc Patriots!!!

Not a fookin word for the nurses, doctors, cleaners, caterers and everyone else in the HSE that break their preverbials day in day out, nah who are they after all?

And no one questions it, the situation a few days ago where an old lady showed a bit of weakness through her grief and got publically shamed on Live TV was the watershed notice for me and not one journalist/reporter questioned it.

A-holes the lot of them.

What do you wnat presenters to do? The public are not stupid, we know if the politicians are evading the question

the kelt

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

What do you wnat presenters to do? The public are not stupid, we know if the politicians are evading the question

I never said i wanted presenters to do anything.

RGS

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Experts should come first in a pandemic, not politicians.

Some seem to want the latter having primacy in a public health emergency.

Why? Don't know because once you get beyond name calling, begrudgery and conspiracy theory they have no argument at all.

We need more experts in decision making.

NPHET are an advisory body, who were set up to advise on 1 specific issue.


The government have numerous advisory bodies but regularly disagree with the advice given by said bodies, which is healthy in a functioning democracy.


There is more to running a country than a public health remit.


Governments must take all economic, societal, mental health etc into account when making decisions.


To me and numerous others government have abdicated their responsibility to the economy, society and mental health by just focusing on covid.


They are elected and paid 6 figure sums to make decisions not be nodding dogs to NPHET.

Coillte_Bhoy

the kelt wrote: »

I never said i wanted presenters to do anything.

Ys sorry, meant to quite someone else

Monster249

RGS wrote: »

NPHET are an advisory body, who were set up to advise on 1 specific issue.


The government have numerous advisory bodies but regularly disagree with the advice given by said bodies, which is healthy in a functioning democracy.


There is more to running a country than a public health remit.


Governments must take all economic, societal, mental health etc into account when making decisions.


To me and numerous others government have abdicated their responsibility to the economy, society and mental health by just focusing on covid.


They are elected and paid 6 figure sums to make decisions not be nodding dogs to NPHET.

How people cannot grasp this, I can't understand. There has to be a balance to everything they do, which incorporates opinions from experts in economics, social, health, etc. At present, they've allowed the health advisory council to run the country which is so dangerously reckless it defies belief, yet somehow it's happening with public support.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

I already gave my answer on that yesterday. You’re assuming to suit your own narrative.

Ok. Well then I didn't understand your answer - i suspect you answered a different question to the one i actually asked. Since the question was about the difference between the scenario you keep outlining and what would happen with herd immunity. I'm not asking again for you to answer it.

RGS

Monster249 wrote: »

How people cannot grasp this, I can't understand. There has to be a balance to everything they do, which incorporates opinions from experts in economics, social, health, etc. At present, they've allowed the health advisory council to run the country which is so dangerously reckless it defies belief, yet somehow it's happening with public support.

I have always maintain that the Attorney general office, the gardai should have been represented on NPHET.


The gastro pub issue would not have arisen if both were represented. IMO NPHET only wanted to re open restaurants, they didn't want pubs of any description to open.
However without knowing licencing laws they threw out a recommendation which publicans who knew the law acted upto to open Gastro pubs as restaurants.
The same applies when it was suggested gardai could just enter houses and break up parties.

Coillte_Bhoy

Monster249 wrote: »

How people cannot grasp this, I can't understand. There has to be a balance to everything they do, which incorporates opinions from experts in economics, social, health, etc. At present, they've allowed the health advisory council to run the country which is so dangerously reckless it defies belief, yet somehow it's happening with public support.

Simply not true, what about Pre Xams when they didnt follow NPHET's advice not to mention ignoring them on quarantine, airport testing etc?

ujjjjjjjjj

AZ vaccine is safe..........back to work lads.

Although I'm sure we need a stack of meetings about meetings first...........and His Honourable Excellency Supreme Leader Tony of Holohan's imprimatur in due course and then we can all bathe in the marvellousness of their expertise and doth our caps...........

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

AZ vaccine is safe..........back to work lads.

Although I'm sure we need a stack of meetings about meetings first...........and His Honourable Excellency Supreme Leader Tony of Holohan's imprimatur in due course and then we can all bathe in the marvellousness of their expertise and doth our caps...........

Yep.

I hope they don't muck about with this. They're certainly going to have to plámás the "vaccine hesitant" as the anti covid vaxers are sometimes called. We might need them all on board to achieve herd immunity. In any case, they have gotten the all clear from the EMA today so they should restart the vaccinations.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-benefits-still-outweigh-risks-despite-possible-link-rare-blood-clots

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yep.

I hope they don't muck about with this. They're certainly going to have to plámás the "vaccine hesitant" as the anti covid vaxers are sometimes called. We might need them all on board to achieve herd immunity. In any case, they have gotten the all clear from the EMA today so they should restart the vaccinations.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-benefits-still-outweigh-risks-despite-possible-link-rare-blood-clots

Yes good point, hasn't helped the anti vax lot who will now be ranting on about blood clots etc etc..........yawn.......despite 11 million odd Brits getting it and today as well the MHRA gave it all the all clear too..............

Yes let's hope they just get on with it now......

Monster249

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Simply not true, what about Pre Xams when they didnt follow NPHET's advice not to mention ignoring them on quarantine, airport testing etc?

What do you mean "simply not true"?

NPHET are always going to be conservative with everything, they're doctors. Just because cases increased when we opened up doesn't proclaim NPHET the all-knowing elders of our country.

They should be used for advice and advice only. There has to be balance.

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Yes good point, hasn't helped the anti vax lot who will now be ranting on about blood clots etc etc..........yawn.......despite 11 million odd Brits getting it and today as well the MHRA gave it all the all clear too..............

Yes let's hope they just get on with it now......

I'm sure it was supposed to have the opposite effect of stopping to investigate the health issue and restarting once it was found to be ok . Ignoring the potential health problem would surely be unending fodder for the anti-vaxxers.

In any case, we're up to 12.4% vaccinated* which is slightly ahead of the EU average of 11.6.%. Ireland is 25th in the world according to this. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1194939/rate-covid-vaccination-by-county-worldwide/

*not sure if this is total population or adult population.

the kelt

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

AZ vaccine is safe..........back to work lads.

Although I'm sure we need a stack of meetings about meetings first...........and His Honourable Excellency Supreme Leader Tony of Holohan's imprimatur in due course and then we can all bathe in the marvellousness of their expertise and doth our caps...........

It was funny but i listened to a clip from Newstalk where they quoted Paul Reid saying "we wont be found wanting" (what a patriot)in terms of delay when it comes to resuming vaccinations but of course the front page of the Irish Times quoted another HSE source saying it will take several days to get going again!

But "hold firm" everybody! "We are on a knife edge here"

The real panic will be when they run out of metaphors!!

Hector Savage

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-03-18/spains-coronavirus-incidence-rate-rises-for-the-first-time-since-end-of-january.html

And this why this sh1t will never end, these ridicoulous targets :

Since that date this key indicator has fallen from 899.93, and yesterday came in at 127.91 according to the latest report from the Health Ministry. The rise from the previous day was barely 0.11 points, which statistically speaking is more of a plateau than an actual rise. But there are doubts as to whether the incidence could start to go up again in Spain or the increase simply marks an oscillation that can be expected when the values hit their minimum.

The problem for the country is that these 127 cases per 100,000 inhabitants are still far from the 50 or 25 that the government set as a target, and that represent the epidemic as being under control.

This is about the minimum it CAN get to, this is why we will see mini peaks now , having 50/25 per 100k as a target is fantasy nonsense that is just impossible to get to - as cases amoung young and healthy will keep it above that.

We are looking at a situation in months to come when we will have restrictions yet empty hospitals and practically zero deaths.

utter madness.