When will it all end?

JDD

I find it absurd that people are factoring in a low uptake of the vaccine in determining how long this is going to go on for.

All we should really be caring about is that there is a very high uptake from the over 70's and vulnerable, and at least 50% uptake in people between the ages of 50-70.

Honestly, who cares if people under 50 take the vaccine or not? Seems to me that the conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers are mostly under 40 anyway. As long as the people who are most likely to die or be hospitalised with the virus are vaccinated, let everyone else catch covid in my opinion.

Yes, it will mean that covid will continue to circulate. So what? Yes, a thirty year old might infect an older person who ends up being hospitalised, but again, so what? If that older person decided not to get vaccinated, well I have little sympathy for them. And as long as the older cohort are mostly vaccinated, there shouldn't be so many of those hospitalisations that restrictions will be needed again.

As for 2022 and beyond, well no-one can say for sure how long vaccination will last for. It is a possibility, if annual vaccination is needed, that the uptake will drop at some point as the threat of covid retreats in people's minds. That being said, as long as the vaccine still works against whatever strain is still circulating (and it's likely it will) all we will need is some very temporary restrictions until uptake of the vaccine is back to acceptable levels.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

................

Yes, it will mean that covid will continue to circulate. So what? Yes, a thirty year old might infect an older person who ends up being hospitalised, but again, so what? If that older person decided not to get vaccinated, well I have little sympathy for them..................

I suppose with 90% efficacy you could appreciate that once you yourself are vaccinated you're hoping there's very little of the virus in the community.

But it's a given there'll be a bit of it out there for a while yet so once "there is a very high uptake from the over 70's and vulnerable, and at least 50% uptake in people between the ages of 50-70" we'll still see some sort of restrictions, L3 ish I imagine.

Until most adults are vaccinated we will likely still see some restrictions I fear.

junebabies

When do you think Shops & Hairdressers will open again?

saintsaltynuts

junebabies wrote: »

When do you think Shops & Hairdressers will open again?

Hopefully end of March start of April.

Non essential retail should open fairly soon I imagine, maybe as early as March. It's very low risk when done properly and everyone is masked, social distancing etc.

Hairdressers is more difficult as you are within 2m of each other for over 15 minutes so close contacts are being made ......... I'm not sure to be honest. No guess on that.

The government will try and balance the economic stuff when they can and non essential retail is a huge employer, it can be done with minimal close contacts. Conceptually zero close contacts but that's not going to happen.

Mr. Karate

JDD wrote: »

I find it absurd that people are factoring in a low uptake of the vaccine in determining how long this is going to go on for.

When this whole thing started they kept claiming that we need a vaccine in order to resume normality [and they promptly shifted the goalposts once it became a reality, but that's beside the point at the moment] so you can see why people are use the vaccination rates [or lack of] to determine how much longer this will go on for.

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

When this whole thing started they kept claiming that we need a vaccine in order to resume normality [and they promptly shifted the goalposts once it became a reality, but that's beside the point at the moment] so you can see why people are use the vaccination rates [or lack of] to determine how much longer this will go on for.

A vaccine is a reality once it's approved for use etc etc but it isn't much good unless folk take it.

El_Duderino 09

Augeo wrote: »

I suppose with 90% efficacy you could appreciate that once you yourself are vaccinated you're hoping there's very little of the virus in the community.

But it's a given there'll be a bit of it out there for a while yet so once "there is a very high uptake from the over 70's and vulnerable, and at least 50% uptake in people between the ages of 50-70" we'll still see some sort of restrictions, L3 ish I imagine.

Until most adults are vaccinated we will likely still see some restrictions I fear.

How people's behaviour changes will need to be factored in too. When an individual is vaccinated, they will likely feel less vulnerable and might be less likely to adhere to guidance, like distancing. and that would likely increase transmissions and prolong the whole thing. I also wonder about when it get more people vaccinated, I wonder if more people will adopt the attitude that "well, if everyone else is vaccinated, then i don't need to be vaccinated", which would also prolong the whole thing.

How individuals and the community as a whole behave, will have an impact on how long it takes to move back towards normal.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

......"well, if everyone else is vaccinated, then i don't need to be vaccinated", which would also prolong the whole thing.

How individuals and the community as a whole behave, will have an impact on how long it takes to move back towards normal.

Yes, I expect the folk who wear the mask under their nose won't be in a rush to avail of vaccination opportunities but will be vocal in their complaints about lingering restrictions etc.

You can see it from posters on here

There is a vaccine, but there are still restrictions, dey moved de gOAlposts

Mr. Karate

Augeo wrote: »

A vaccine is a reality once it's approved for use etc etc but it isn't much good unless folk take it.

Can't take it if the Govt [Irish and EU] are dragging their feet getting it to us.

Responder XY

Augeo wrote: »

Non essential retail should open fairly soon I imagine, maybe as early as March. It's very low risk when done properly and everyone is masked, social distancing etc.

Hairdressers is more difficult as you are within 2m of each other for over 15 minutes so close contacts are being made ......... I'm not sure to be honest. No guess on that.

The government will try and balance the economic stuff when they can and non essential retail is a huge employer, it can be done with minimal close contacts. Conceptually zero close contacts but that's not going to happen.

Hairdresser is a form of hygine - more essential than retail. I'd expect them both to open at same time, one because it has too and the other because it's safe too.

If it's either/or Hairdresser clearly should be first.

ShineOn7

Augeo wrote: »

Non essential retail should open fairly soon I imagine

What exactly is "essential retail" now?

Harvey Norman is still open ffs

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What exactly is "essential retail" now?

Harvey Norman is still open ffs

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1230/1187030-what-is-essential-retail/
Here is what the Government has outlined as essential retail:

- Businesses that sell food or beverages on a takeaway basis.

- Shops that offer food for sale.

- Outlets that sell products necessary for home maintenance, such as hardware outlets and builders' merchants.

- Banks, post offices and credit unions.

- Pharmacies, chemists and retailers or wholesalers providing pharmaceuticals, as well as outlets selling health, medical or orthopaedic goods in a specialised outlet.

- Fuel service stations and heating fuel providers.

- Businesses that provide essential items for the health and welfare of animals.

- Laundries and dry cleaners are considered essential.

- Businesses selling health, medical or orthopaedic goods.

- Outlets selling safety supplies, including work-wear apparel, footwear and PPE.

- Mechanics and bike repair shops can remain open.

- Businesses that offer services on an emergency basis such as those sell hearing aids, office products, those who provide electrical, information and communications technology and telephone sales, repair and maintenance services.

- Optician and optometrist outlets.

- Retail outlets that operate online can open to provide goods for collection.

El_Duderino 09

Responder XY wrote: »

Hairdresser is a form of hygine - more essential than retail. I'd expect them both to open at same time, one because it has too and the other because it's safe too.

If it's either/or Hairdresser clearly should be first.

Yeah, there are lots of ways to argue it. The more things they reopen together, the more transmissions will rise. So they need to have the numbers pretty low before that happens. It's just a matter of waiting to see what the numbers do in the meantime.

Both the UK and Irish positive case numbers are back down to where they were just after Christmas. So the lockdown is working very effectively. The next question is about the new, more transmissible, variants and what level of restrictions will be necessary to stop the cases rising again.

Responder XY

Responder XY wrote: »

Hairdresser is a form of hygine - more essential than retail. I'd expect them both to open at same time, one because it has too and the other because it's safe too.

If it's either/or Hairdresser clearly should be first.

It's close contact, workers will rack up 10 to 20 close contacts a day.
Non essential retail can operate with restrictions minimising close contacts.

You might well be right, time will tell. It won't be either or. Things don't work like that.

VG31

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What exactly is "essential retail" now?

Harvey Norman is still open ffs

If Harvey Norman, Currys, DID etc. are closed, what are you supposed to do if your oven, washing machine, kettle, microwave and so on breaks?

JDD

Augeo wrote: »

I suppose with 90% efficacy you could appreciate that once you yourself are vaccinated you're hoping there's very little of the virus in the community.

But it's a given there'll be a bit of it out there for a while yet so once "there is a very high uptake from the over 70's and vulnerable, and at least 50% uptake in people between the ages of 50-70" we'll still see some sort of restrictions, L3 ish I imagine.

Until most adults are vaccinated we will likely still see some restrictions I fear.

I completely agree that restrictions, in some form, will remain in place until all over 50's and vulnerable have been offered the vaccine. My personal view is that even if a large number of over 70's are generally skeptical about vaccines there will be a large uptake anyway. The real fear for that generation of what might happen if they catch covid will outweigh any concerns they have about the vaccine.

I think it will be the same for the over 50's, though there would be more people in that cohort who believe that they would be fine if they caught covid and therefore may decide not to take the vaccine.

Once you get to offering the vaccine to the remainder of the population, we will have to have a real discussion about whether restrictions are needed at that point. If the virus was allowed to run rampant through the community, how many hospitalisations would there be from the under-50 population? Some, certainly, but probably not so much that our health system could not cope. They have excellent people churning out these models all the time. While letting the virus rip through the under-50 population will inevitably mean that lots and lots more people will get sick, only a very small proportion of those will require hospitalisation. I don't think that shutting down businesses or schools is a justifiable decision at that stage.

That being said, I think we will have Level 1/2 restrictions until September.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

.......I don't think that shutting down businesses or schools is a justifiable decision at that stage.

That being said, I think we will have Level 1/2 restrictions until September.

Indeed........ I agree, age spread of hospitalisations below

Age profile of hospitalised cases to 22 January
Age Number of cases (%)
0–4 105(1%)
5–14 99(0.99%)
15–24 418(4.21%)
25–34 673(6.78%)
35–44 802(8%)
45–54 1,204(12.13%)
55–64 1,431(14.42%)
65+ 5,482(55.24%)

Gradius

2023 or 2024 before an effective, permanent strategy comes into play and life becomes normalised.

Speculation, but I suspect changes the likes of which haven't ever been seen are in store.

"Hide inside and wait" with layers upon layers of complete contradiction. You can fly to Brazil and back, but we'll fine you for walking 5 km away from your house, open borders, open schools, drinking outside pubs, blah blah blah.

When you think about it, the response to this pandemic has been pathetic, so expecting a pathetic response to a deadly serious problem was never going to be sufficient.

JDD

Gradius wrote: »

2023 or 2024 before an effective, permanent strategy comes into play and life becomes normalised.

Speculation, but I suspect changes the likes of which haven't ever been seen are in store.

"Hide inside and wait" with layers upon layers of complete contradiction. You can fly to Brazil and back, but we'll fine you for walking 5 km away from your house, open borders, open schools, drinking outside pubs, blah blah blah.

When you think about it, the response to this pandemic has been pathetic, so expecting a pathetic response to a deadly serious problem was never going to be sufficient.

Eh?

How can you fly to Brazil? Unless you live within 5k of the airport. And even then it seems the guards are stopping people on the entrance roads to the airport.

I realise you said "speculation", but I'm not sure what you are basing your - "changes the like we have never seen before" stance is coming from, unless you are Great Reset conspiracy theorist, in which case, say that.

Gradius

JDD wrote: »

Eh?

How can you fly to Brazil? Unless you live within 5k of the airport. And even then it seems the guards are stopping people on the entrance roads to the airport.

I realise you said "speculation", but I'm not sure what you are basing your - "changes the like we have never seen before" stance is coming from, unless you are Great Reset conspiracy theorist, in which case, say that.

I'm telling you right now, I know people who are taking the absolute piss with holidays. Not anecdotal. Brazil, Spain and more.

And if these people get sick, or are traces to someone else being sick, how likely is it that they'll admit to having been abroad? Practically zero, I'd say.

As for speculation, it's a case of weighing up what's likely to work and not, and I'd reasonably believe that far greater changes are needed to control this situation, much more than a vaccine.

Edit, just to add, planes are "packed" with Irish people heading to sunny places. That's what I'm told. All "essential travel", I'm sure

LordBasil

Augeo wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1230/1187030-what-is-essential-retail/
Here is what the Government has outlined as essential retail:

- Businesses that sell food or beverages on a takeaway basis.

- Shops that offer food for sale.

- Outlets that sell products necessary for home maintenance, such as hardware outlets and builders' merchants.

- Banks, post offices and credit unions.

- Pharmacies, chemists and retailers or wholesalers providing pharmaceuticals, as well as outlets selling health, medical or orthopaedic goods in a specialised outlet.

- Fuel service stations and heating fuel providers.

- Businesses that provide essential items for the health and welfare of animals.

- Laundries and dry cleaners are considered essential.

- Businesses selling health, medical or orthopaedic goods.

- Outlets selling safety supplies, including work-wear apparel, footwear and PPE.

- Mechanics and bike repair shops can remain open.

- Businesses that offer services on an emergency basis such as those sell hearing aids, office products, those who provide electrical, information and communications technology and telephone sales, repair and maintenance services.

- Optician and optometrist outlets.

- Retail outlets that operate online can open to provide goods for collection.

I can see clothing stores being added to that list in March, as people will need new need clothes (especially for Babies) so the likes of Penneys will be able to open although I'd imagine with much stricter crowd control measures in place.

Other retailers should be able to open for 'Click & Collect' only in March as the Government won't want retail shut completely for more than is necessary.

ShineOn7

VG31 wrote: »

If Harvey Norman, Currys, DID etc. are closed, what are you supposed to do if your oven, washing machine, kettle, microwave and so on breaks?

Were they allowed open in Lockdown One in March?

El_Duderino 09

Gradius wrote: »

2023 or 2024 before an effective, permanent strategy comes into play and life becomes normalised.

Speculation, but I suspect changes the likes of which haven't ever been seen are in store.

"Hide inside and wait" with layers upon layers of complete contradiction. You can fly to Brazil and back, but we'll fine you for walking 5 km away from your house, open borders, open schools, drinking outside pubs, blah blah blah.

When you think about it, the response to this pandemic has been pathetic, so expecting a pathetic response to a deadly serious problem was never going to be sufficient.

It’s been pathetic - with the benefit of hindsight. It was an unprecedented event on a global scale. It’s hardly surprising that they didn’t know how to react or what to prioritise because they didn’t know what would happen next.

To be fair though, we have a good comparator in the form of the uk. And Ireland performs better on most metrics like transmission per head of population and loss of GDP.

Giving the government credit isn’t population these threads, but it’s fair to say it could have been a lot worse and it was a lot worse in the uk.

As long as everyone is doing their best, then I think it’s just a sh1t situation and we have to get on with it.

Gradius

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It’s been pathetic - with the benefit of hindsight. It was an unprecedented event on a global scale. It’s hardly surprising that they didn’t know how to react or what to prioritise because they didn’t know what would happen next.

To be fair though, we have a good comparator in the form of the uk. And Ireland performs better on most metrics like transmission per head of population and loss of GDP.

Giving the government credit isn’t population these threads, but it’s fair to say it could have been a lot worse and it was a lot worse in the uk.

As long as everyone is doing their best, then I think it’s just a sh1t situation and we have to get on with it.

I don't agree, plenty of people were purposefully ignored as to what should be done.

There were calls to close airports last bloody March, just for one example. And only now is there a hint of "maybe we should do something about that".

Even if plenty of other countries are similarly mismanaged, it's not an excuse to point at them and claim competence via shared ignorance

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

Non essential retail should open fairly soon I imagine, maybe as early as March. It's very low risk when done properly and everyone is masked, social distancing etc................

LordBasil wrote: »

I can see clothing stores being added to that list in March, as people will need new need clothes (especially for Babies) so the likes of Penneys will be able to open although I'd imagine with much stricter crowd control measures in place.

Other retailers should be able to open for 'Click & Collect' only in March as the Government won't want retail shut completely for more than is necessary.

Yeah, I reckon all non essential retail will open in March, clothes most definitely anyway.

El_Duderino 09

Gradius wrote: »

I don't agree, plenty of people were purposefully ignored as to what should be done.

There were calls to close airports last bloody March, just for one example. And only now is there a hint of "maybe we should do something about that".

Even if plenty of other countries are similarly mismanaged, it's not an excuse to point at them and claim competence via shared ignorance

Yeah but "there were calls" for all kinds of things, from good ideas to ludicrous ideas. There were calls to reopen pubs full in December. The government has to ignore 99% of all the "calls".

Oh yeah. In hindsight, the people calling for airports to be closed, were correct. But if Ireland were to close the borders when nobody else was doing it, they would have expose business to even harsher restrictions. So it wasn't a simple win-win situation.

But you're right that they should have closed the borders. Everyone should have closed the borders.

Gradius

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah but "there were calls" for all kinds of things, from good ideas to ludicrous ideas. There were calls to reopen pubs full in December. The government has to ignore 99% of all the "calls".

Oh yeah. In hindsight, the people calling for airports to be closed, were correct. But if Ireland were to close the borders when nobody else was doing it, they would have expose business to even harsher restrictions. So it wasn't a simple win-win situation.

But you're right that they should have closed the borders. Everyone should have closed the borders.

I'm not talking about "calls" from everyone and anyone. Who gives a fook what a pub owner has to suggest about controlling a pandemic?

I'm talking about proposals and suggestions and plans from people who know what they're talking about, genuine experts. And I don't mean nphet..

Essentially the government, and many others, wanted to take short-cuts to save money (in all respects). That was their main concern.

Well what a surprise, the short-cut, half-arsed approach has not only defeated the entire point of the short-cuts, it has also made the situation worse.

How much money has been saved by these approaches? How many businesses have been "protected" 12 months later? How much safer are people now? And so on.

40% of some counties are now depending on government payments, from Kerry to Dublin. Looking good!

El_Duderino 09

Gradius wrote: »

I'm not talking about "calls" from everyone and anyone. Who gives a fook what a pub owner has to suggest about controlling a pandemic?

I'm talking about proposals and suggestions and plans from people who know what they're talking about, genuine experts. And I don't mean nphet..

Essentially the government, and many others, wanted to take short-cuts to save money (in all respects). That was their main concern.

Well what a surprise, the short-cut, half-arsed approach has not only defeated the entire point of the short-cuts, it has also made the situation worse.

How much money has been saved by these approaches? How many businesses have been "protected" 12 months later? How much safer are people now? And so on.

40% of some counties are now depending on government payments, from Kerry to Dublin. Looking good!

I mean, you’re right that they should have closed the borders. And it’s all Captain Hindsight stuff.

If the governments had the benefit of hindsight to know how long the pandemic would go on, then I’m sure they would have closed the airports.

I think that, in hindsight, hey should have done a lot of things differently. I still think they mostly made the decisions they though were right at the time.

The decisions you’re talking about would have been even more unpopular than the decisions they actually made. People hate lockdowns and the correct thing to do would be to have locked down even harder than they did. Nobody would give them credit for those decisions.

People have to consent to be ruled. They can only take measures that people would put up with. Look at the number of clowns who claim they will start breaking the rules on [insert arbitrary date here]. I think the government did their best, which isn’t to say they always made the right decisions with the benefit of hindsight.

Gradius

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I mean, you’re right that they should have closed the borders. And it’s all Captain Hindsight stuff.

If the governments had the benefit of hindsight to know how long the pandemic would go on, then I’m sure they would have closed the airports.

I think that, in hindsight, hey should have done a lot of things differently. I still think they mostly made the decisions they though were right at the time.

The decisions you’re talking about would have been even more unpopular than the decisions they actually made. People hate lockdowns and the correct thing to do would be to have locked down even harder than they did. Nobody would give them credit for those decisions.

People have to consent to be ruled. They can only take measures that people would put up with. Look at the number of clowns who claim they will start breaking the rules on [insert arbitrary date here]. I think the government did their best, which isn’t to say they always made the right decisions with the benefit of hindsight.

It was foresight back then, not hindsight now.

As to how people react to the necessary steps, well you either want a solution or you don't.

All the lockdowns so far, all the misery, all the coming lockdowns and coming misery...what has it been for? What has been accomplished? Nothing. It's been all for nowt.

Tell me there's a point to climbing over a mountain and I'll begrudgingly do it. Have me climb a mountain for no benefit at all?...that's how you lose the confidence and control of a situation.

They took short-cuts to save money, have ended up costing untold billions and jobs, and here we are, still back at the starting point.

And it's for that simple root point that I don't foresee any meaningful progress for years. I hope I'm wrong, but it's a 70/30 bet I'd confidently place.