When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

You seem to think herd immunity is some magical place we hit and then it all goes away......

It juat doesn't work like that.

Someday everyone will wake up and realise this is an endemic virus.

Once deaths and hospitalisations are low we move on.....or we can stay in hysteria land forever.

We know we can keep deaths down using restrictions. The other (preferably way) to keep deaths down is through herd immunity.

Herd immunity isn’t magical. It’s just the most likely way to have no restrictions next winter.

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

We know we can keep deaths down using restrictions. The other (preferably way) to keep deaths down is through herd immunity.

Herd immunity isn’t magical. It’s just the most likely way to have no restrictions next winter.

Or juat vaccinate those who actually are at substantial risk and jog on.....

Micky 32

martingriff wrote: »

Well for me I think herd immunity is needed as anyone could become vulnerable in there life time. We are not talking about full lockdown or full restriction until it does. Why do a half a** job when you can do a full job

Certainly herd immunity is important in the longterm. Vaccinating and protecting the vulnerable in the short term is important.

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Or juat vaccinate those who actually are at substantial risk and jog on.....

Sure. If you think that’s what MM will do next winter then there’s nothing to worry about.

El_Duderino 09

mightyreds wrote: »

How would herd immunity do that? so we vaccinate 80% but they can still transmit the virus how is the other 20% safe?

Ah right. That’s what herd immunity does. It’s about the concept of the vaccinated people providing the virus with too few susceptible hosts so it can’t take off. It doesn’t mean there are no cases, it means the transmission can’t rise exponentially. The threshold for herd immunity differs depending on the virus.

They’re not sure what the threshold for covid is. Most estimates range from 70-90% of total population.

Don’t take my word for it. Look it up for yourself.
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Sure. If you think that’s what MM will do next winter then there’s nothing to worry about.

MM doesn’t do anything, he has handed over the keys of the car to Holohan and he is driving it now and no chance of Holohan doing that and that is the problem.

Mod edit, stop with the childish nicknames

Are nicknames not allowed on Boards ? Just they seem to be used by lots of people but you seem to have decided my post was childish?

Any particular reason ?

martingriff

Micky 32 wrote: »

Certainly herd immunity is important in the longterm. Vaccinating and protecting the vulnerable in the short term is important.

Oh I agree

El_Duderino 09

mightyreds wrote: »

critical mass I would presume is all vulnerable people, which go's back to the question I asked, why do we need herd immunity if all vulnerable people are vaccinated

Right, but we’re just hoping at that stage. We’re hoping we’ll get the effect of herd immunity by just vaccinating the vulnerable.

Herd immunity would take the guesswork/wishful thinking out of it.

martingriff

Micky 32 wrote: »

Certainly herd immunity is important in the longterm. Vaccinating and protecting the vulnerable in the short term is important.

Then what do we do if someone becomes vulnerable just have a few handy. Why not when we can vaccinate all we can

El_Duderino 09

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Mehole doesn’t do anything, he has handed over the keys of the car to Holohan and he is driving it now and no chance of Holohan doing that and that is the problem.

Ok. So will Holohan agree with you that we just need to vaccinate the vulnerable and “jog on”?

GT89

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We could be at the beginning of our phase of the 4th wave now sweeping across Europe.

We have to be super cautious for the next while if we are to avoid a sharp ascent.

People may he frustrated but the public health advice is 100% appropriate for the risks ahead.

Suggestion for you. Lock yourself up in your room and don't interact with anyone else and let the rest of us get on with our lives. If you want to live in fear that's fine but I'm not.

Diamondhands

Who here thinks keeping everything locked down until we're all vaccinated is a reasonable idea? I for one think the Government has done an exceptional job in preparing to live with the virus throughout the last 12 months.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Certainly herd immunity is important in the longterm. Vaccinating and protecting the vulnerable in the short term is important.

Why is herd immunity import if you think it’s very likely we won’t need restrictions
without herd immunity with about 60% vaccinated? What advantage would herd immunity bring if we won’t need restrictions without it?

El_Duderino 09

martingriff wrote: »

Oh I agree

Why do you agree? What do you think would be the difference between vaccinating the vulnerable and achieving herd immunity?

Charles Babbage

mightyreds wrote: »

critical mass I would presume is all vulnerable people, which go's back to the question I asked, why do we need herd immunity if all vulnerable people are vaccinated

Because there will always be people who remain vulnerable, even if only temporarily. You could have a young person receiving chemo or the like who could be vulnerable for a few weeks, but who would be fine in the long term. If Covid is knocking around they are hugely at risk although they would otherwise live for another half century.

It is like saying lets not worry about widespread flooding, we'll waterproof the houses, fine but one small leak and you are gone.

If we have herd immunity an individual might still be at risk, but the R value will be well below one and outbreaks will be quickly extinguished. If there is an outbreak you can throw the kitchen sink at it by way of testing etc as such outbreaks will be infrequent.


But then all of this has been explained numerous times, but some people refuse to listen as they think only of themselves at this point in time.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why is herd immunity import if you think it’s very likely we won’t need restrictions
without herd immunity with about 60% vaccinated? What advantage would herd immunity bring if we won’t need restrictions without it?

Once we get the most critical vaccinated and tumble weeds start blowing through the covid wards restrictions will dwindle.

martingriff

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why do you agree? What do you think would be the difference between vaccinating the vulnerable and achieving herd immunity?

I agree with the poster vaccinating the vulnerable should be the task for now and the herd immunity which I felt the poster was saying. Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated we can loosen the restriction to limits in shops, social distancing, and hand gel use in shops

Sharpyshoot

If nphet start dancing a jig on a 4th wave theory we will be in lockdown till June 2022.

martingriff

Diamondhands wrote: »

Who here thinks keeping everything locked down until we're all vaccinated is a reasonable idea? I for one think the Government has done an exceptional job in preparing to live with the virus throughout the last 12 months.

Not a chance that will happen. Shop limits social distance will remain but other stuff will go i say

GT89

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Because there will always be people who remain vulnerable, even if only temporarily. You could have a young person receiving chemo or the like who could be vulnerable for few weeks, but who would be fine in the long term. If Covid is knocking around they are hugely at risk although they would otherwise live for another half century.

It is like saying lets not worry about widespread flooding, we'll waterproof the houses, fine but one small leak and you are gone.

If we have herd immunity an individual might still be at risk, but the R value will be well below one and outbreaks will be quickly extinguished. If there is an outbreak you can throw the kitchen sink at it by way of testing etc as such outbreaks will be infrequent.


But then all of this has been explained numerous times, but some people refuse to listen as they think only of themselves at this point in time.

Well if someone has irrational fear of catching a virus or reckons they are vulnerable they can stay at home but they need to stop telling the rest of us to stay at home and put our lives on hold just to suit them.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Once we get the most critical vaccinated and tumble weeds start blowing through the covid wards restrictions will dwindle.

If that will happen when the vulnerable are vaccinated then why is herd immunity important?

I agree restrictions will be reduced in the summer. Whether we can get through the winter without restrictions is a different matter. That’s why I see herd immunity as important. But I’m not sure why you think herd immunity is important.

mightyreds

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Because there will always be people who remain vulnerable, even if only temporarily. You could have a young person receiving chemo or the like who could be vulnerable for a few weeks, but who would be fine in the long term. If Covid is knocking around they are hugely at risk although they would otherwise live for another half century.

It is like saying lets not worry about widespread flooding, we'll waterproof the houses, fine but one small leak and you are gone.

If we have herd immunity an individual might still be at risk, but the R value will be well below one and outbreaks will be quickly extinguished. If there is an outbreak you can throw the kitchen sink at it by way of testing etc as such outbreaks will be infrequent.


But then all of this has been explained numerous times, but some people refuse to listen as they think only of themselves at this point in time.

How does herd immunity stop the spread, if you can still spread it with the vaccine. Will the vulnerable who cant be vaccinated still be vulnerable to catching it off a vaccinated person?

GT89 wrote: »

Well if someone has irrational fear of catching a virus or reckons they are vulnerable they can stay at home but they need to stop telling the rest of us to stay at home and put our lives on hold just to suit them.

This is the second part of what i'd like to understand, pre covid how did these people deal with flu season? I've never been in this position so not sure

El_Duderino 09

martingriff wrote: »

I agree with the poster vaccinating the vulnerable should be the task for now and the herd immunity which I felt the poster was saying. Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated we can loosen the restriction to limits in shops, social distancing, and hand gel use in shops

Yeah but some people think we won’t need any restrictions, even next winter, without herd immunity. I think the way we can likely achieve that is through herd immunity.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If that will happen when the vulnerable are vaccinated then why is herd immunity important?

Did we have herd immunity last summer when the hospitals were practically zero? There wasn’t a vaccine available then. We were then allowed to roam free around the country and holiday. Why? Because the hospitals weren’t overrun with covid patients. We didn’t have herd immunity last summer.

Restrictions will correlate with hospitalization not herd immunity.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

Did we have herd immunity last summer when the hospitals were practically zero? There wasn’t a vaccine available then. We were then allowed to roam free around the country and holiday. Why? Because the hospitals weren’t overrun with covid patients. We didn’t have herd immunity last summer.

Restrictions will correlate with hospitalization not herd immunity.

No, we didn’t have a vaccine last summer, we used restrictions to keep things going. And in winter we used lockdowns. The vaccine will certainly help keep make things better but herd immunity is the point at which we can most likely go back to normal life without restrictions, even in winter.

You keep saying well most likely achieve that without herd immunity.

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

No, we didn’t have a vaccine last summer, we used restrictions to keep things going. And in winter we used lockdowns

Because we didn’t have a vaccine last winter, this winter we will have. Huge difference going forward.

Did you conveniently forget we had a vaccine since you’re comparing winter 2020 vs winter 2021?

bucketybuck

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Once deaths and hospitalisations are low we move on.....or we can stay in hysteria land forever.

We all know how it's going to happen.

"October 2021, reports indicate that there has been another death linked to covid, health officials are said to be very concerned and have advised the government that steps need to be taken."

The fact that 90 year old Doris had covid but died from leukaemia wont matter, the RTE headlines will still tell of the scary covid monster and Tony will see his opportunity.

If only we had a media and an opposition with the balls to call this hysteria out for what it is.

Beasty

I don't think any of the vaccines claim immunity at all. They claim to suppress symptoms. Herd immunity may not be viable. We don't even know how long any immunity from having had this virus lasts. There are plenty of examples of people having caught this twice. And all of that is before considering mutations. I think this is going to be a case of finding a way to live with this disease certainly for the next few years as hopefully they develop a vaccine that can offer immunity.

ujjjjjjjjj

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. So will Holohan agree with you that we just need to vaccinate the vulnerable and “jog on”?

Doubt it......but that is.kinda the problem....

bucketybuck

"Live with covid"

Unfortunately those are dirty words in Ireland.