When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

Graham wrote: »

That would be my thinking too.

The US had suggested it might send us some vaccines when they’re done too. We’ll get sorted with as many adults as possible before winter whatever happens. That’s the best we can hope for. And we’ll be ahead of the vast majority of the world with that. We’re currently ahead of about 90% of the the world in vaccination rate. Not too shabby.

BlaktainPicard

Graham wrote: »

I suspect most of the people you've put in this category actually don't prefer it, they just understand why it's necessary.

Yes indeed Graham, more lockdown to prevent ..... more lockdown.

BlaktainPicard

Parachutes wrote: »

All these people who advocate severe lockdowns as a containment measure for a virus, when will enough be enough? You can’t eradicate it completely by hiding inside and wearing masks so where do we draw the line? Until everyone is vaccinated? What about variants? At what stage do we admit this will be endemic and just get on with things? For the sake of this virus we have destroyed pretty much all that is good about life. Job, social life, hobbies etc I’m at my wits end I’ve never felt so terrible in my life.

The longer this drags on the more ridiculous it gets. Covid is such a harmless virus I guarantee if we opened everything up tomorrow and had the vulnerable shield absolutely nothing would happen. The sky wouldn’t fall down, the hospitals wouldn’t be overflowing with bodies etc Sweden have been at it the better part of the year.

I get the sense, from talking to some people that they can hardly remember things before this. I’m only half joking when I go on about the Covidian religion. It’s like this new normal is a preferable situation for them and they would do anything to protect this prison lockdown experiment. The amount of talk you are hearing already about wearing masks and socially distancing forever even after covid becomes old news.I genuinely feel like the anomaly lab rat who isn’t doing well in the experiment.

Wear 2 masks !
And when that doesn't work wear 3 masks!!!



This is actual policy in some places, I'm not even joking ...

hynesie08

BlaktainPicard wrote: »

Wear 2 masks !
And when that doesn't work wear 3 masks!!!



This is actual policy in some places, I'm not even joking ...

Name one place with a 3 mask policy.

Graham

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The US had suggested it might send us some vaccines when they’re done too. We’ll get sorted with as many adults as possible before winter whatever happens. That’s the best we can hope for. And we’ll be ahead of the vast majority of the world with that. We’re currently ahead of about 90% of the the world in vaccination rate. Not too shabby.

Not too shabby at all. At the same time it would be great to see anything that might help speed up the process.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But the British people were told again and again that the vaccine meant a return to normality. Now it seems that masks and social distancing, at least if Dr Mary Ramsay of PHE gets her way, will be necessary for years to come.

And Johnson is now saying that those horrible tests will be a feature of school life for years.

Yeah. I wouldn’t believe much that Johnson says, just because he said it. He’s a woeful liar. I’d need further evidence.

People believed his plan for total end of restrictions in June because they wanted to believe it. We’ll just have to wait and see what actually happens.

snotboogie

Back of the envelope projections from me.

Vaccination looks to start to have an effect on transmission at around 30 days after 30 vaccines are administered per 100 people. This has held for the UK, UAE and Israel. Lots and lots of caveats here, most notably the level of infection, level of restrictions, how you administer the vaccine, (the effect in the UK was a lot faster because they are focusing on first doses) and how fast you administer the vaccine. Side note that cases in Chile and Bahrain are still rising 18 and 21 days respectively after they reached 30 per 100 people. Both are extensively using Chinese vaccines Sinovac and Sinopharm, however the UAE are also using Sinopharm and saw a drop almost immediately when they hit the 30 number. These will be two very interesting countries to watch in the next few weeks.

Assuming a vaccination rate in Ireland of 0.6 vaccines per 100 people per day in April, we should reach 30 does per 100 people around the 21st of April. I don't see any meaningful lifting of restrictions at this time but we should start to see the beginning of some downward pressure on overall cases driven by vaccination. Judging by our level of restrictions and infection, I think we are closer to the UK and Israel than we are to Chile and Bahrain.

The second big drop in Israel happened at 65 doses per 100 people. The UAE is the only other country to reach this landmark and also saw an appreciable drop. Ireland, assuming an average vaccination rate of 0.7 vaccines per 100 people per day in May, should reach the 65 landmark around the 3rd of June. I think at this point we will have seen significant downward pressure on cases and around the start of June we should see something resembling level 3 with a focus on outdoor socialising.

There was another less significant increase in the rate of the drop in cases in Israels unstoppable downward slope at around 80 cases per day. Assuming a rate of vaccination of 0.8 per day in June, we should reach this level on the 22nd of June. At this point, we will continue to see fewer cases and there will be pressure to relax more restrictions at the start of July.

At around 100 vaccines per day, Israel had already effectively fully opened their society to those who had been vaccinated. Assuming that we are pushing 0.9 vaccines per day by the end of June we should see us reach 100 by the 15th of July. I think its very hard to predict how our government will open up at this stage, at worst I would expect a return to level 3 with fewer restrictions than last summer. At best we could fully open for those vaccinated. My guess is that we would be at something resembling level 2 for all people with retail and social distanced indoor dining returning.

At the next milestone of 120 vaccines per 100 people, we are flying blind as nowhere with a significant population has reached this milestone. Assuming we are vaccinating 1 person per 100 per day by the middle of July we should get to 120 vaccines per 100 people by around the 5th of August.

The next big milestone in my mind is 150 vaccines per 100 people. This is where you can start to think about herd immunity. Assuming we don't have trouble with vaccine hesitancy and there are no unforeseen supply issues, we should reach this point around the end of August. I think at this point we are at Level 1 where we have all restrictions removed, except for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, including a complete return to work for all who want to and a return to normal international travel with the EU, US, UK and Canada.

The last milestone is about 180 vaccines per 100 people. This is entire population who can be vaccinated being vaccinated, I'm assuming at this point all teenagers will be approved to be vaccinated and we will be left with the under 12's, pregnant women and some extremely vulnerable categories. Best case scenario, we reach this point at around the 25th of September. At this stage, supply should be no issue and it will be convincing people who are vaccine hesitant to take the shot. If we get to this point, I see a beginning of a slow phase out of social distancing and mask wearing as immunity takes hold. How fast this happens depends on government hesitancy but mostly I think on the experiences of other countries. The UK will be well ahead of us and I imagine we will follow their lead. Ireland play New Zealand on the 20th of November in the Aviva, optimistically I think we will see a full stadium with full pubs afterwards for that game.

I think the vaccination program will continue well into 2022. I imagine the vaccine will be approved for children by the end of the year and we will see a booster jab to deal with variants around the end of the year too. I think a total return to normal will be seen early in 2022, where we stop seeing domestic case numbers in the news and the covid focus will be on vaccinating the 3rd world. I think we see global vaccination finish around the end of 2022.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. I wouldn’t believe much that Johnson says, just because he said it. He’s a woeful liar. I’d need fur to we evidence.

People believed his plan for total end of restrictions in June because they wanted to believe it. We’ll just have to wait and see what actually happens.

But I actually don't think, based on opinion poll after opinion poll, the majority of the British people would have a problem with years of testing in schools, vaccine passports and Dr Mary Ramsay's prediction of mask-wearing and social distancing for years to come. I think it's wise to be wary of opinion polls, but a large percentage of the population appear to fully support what the Government is doing.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But I actually don't think, based on opinion poll after opinion poll, the majority of the British people would have a problem with years of testing in schools, vaccine passports and Dr Mary Ramsay's prediction of mask-wearing and social distancing for years to come. I think it's wise to be wary of opinion polls, but a large percentage of the population appear to fully support what the Government is doing.

I’ll take your word for it on the opinion polls. It’s a new topic. Nobody knows what the future holds so if I was asked “would you put up with tests now and again and wearing masks if it was necessary for an otherwise normal life?” I’d answer yes. If I was asked if I would I like tests and wearing masks, I’d answer no.

The facts are not known yet so people’s opinions are probably open to change over the next months and years as facts emerge.

Risteard81

Risteard81 wrote: »

I already answered that the Dublin Administration is not the Irish Government.

I’ve looked into that and legally it is. Recognised under international law and treaties.

Mr. Karate

hynesie08 wrote: »

Name one place with a 3 mask policy.

Fauci [like Holohan has used this to make a celebrity out of himself] had advocated for 2 masks. Haven't heard him talk about that for awhile [Hard to peddle bull**** when your biggest nemesis in Congress is a Doctor himself {Rand Paul}]
CNBC "experts" ran with the "Why not Three" nonsnese.



https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2021/january/cnbc-correspondent-encourages-viewers-to-wear-three-masks

https://www.newswars.com/experts-now-say-americans-should-wear-three-masks/

Ha Long Bay

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Fauci [like Holohan has used this to make a celebrity out of himself] had advocated for 2 masks. Haven't heard him talk about that for awhile [Hard to peddle bull**** when your biggest nemesis in Congress is a Doctor himself {Rand Paul}]
CNBC "experts" ran with the "Why not Three" nonsnese.



https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2021/january/cnbc-correspondent-encourages-viewers-to-wear-three-masks

https://www.newswars.com/experts-now-say-americans-should-wear-three-masks/

You get your news from interesting places. InfoWars wouldn't personally be my go-to source.

You didn't answer the question though from the other poster where is there a place with a 3 mask policy?

Mr. Karate

john4321 wrote: »

You get your news from interesting places. InfoWars wouldn't personally be my go-to source.

I could probably find your sources dodgy as well. And what part of CNBC panel where "experts" claimed 3 would be better didn't you understand.

One good thing about the US is Fauci has appear before Congress to justify any limits and restrictions he wants. Luckily the Republicans have Rand Paul who is a doctor himself to challenge Fauci.

This Country would be in a much better place if we had some actual Opposition in the Dail and Seanad and Holohan had to appear before them and justify any of his recommendations. Instead of just being approved no questions asked like it currently is.

Ha Long Bay

Mr. Karate wrote: »

I could probably find your sources dodgy as well. And what part of CNBC panel where "experts" claimed 3 would be better didn't you understand.

One good thing about the US is Fauci has appear before Congress to justify any limits and restrictions he wants. Luckily the Republicans have Rand Paul who is a doctor himself to challenge Fauci.

This Country would be in a much better place if we had some actual Opposition in the Dail and Seanad and Holohan had to appear before them and justify any of his recommendations. Instead of just being approved no questions asked like it currently is.

Can you name one single place with a 3 mask policy as the other poster claimed?

Mr. Karate

john4321 wrote: »

Can you name one single place with a 3 mask policy as the other poster claimed?

Thankfully None. Though with the way this Govt just rubberstamps everything Holohan wants I wouldn't be surprised if he tried for it.

Ha Long Bay

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Thankfully None. Though with the way this Govt just rubberstamps everything Holohan wants I wouldn't be surprised if he tried for it.

Safe to say then the original poster was lying in that case.

"This is actual policy in some places, I'm not even joking ..."

Not sure why you tried to defend them by using articles from Info Wars if you knew it was untrue.

Parachutes

john4321 wrote: »

Can you name one single place with a 3 mask policy as the other poster claimed?

NPHET could come out and say it tomorrow and all the zombies would do it.

robbiezero

GooglePlus wrote: »

Until we're in a position to confidently say cases won't spike like they did at Christmas, which resulted in a jump in ICU/Hospital/Death figures, lockdowns are what we'll see. Sufficient vaccination Immunity, or a track/trace beyond our capability right now, are the only other ways back to some form of normality. So with the latter not possible, we're pretty much going to be like this until we reach immunity through vaccination.

I can confidently say removing the travel restrictions, letting people meet outdoors, outdoor dining, outdoor training etc will not result in a spike like Christmas or anywhere near it.

Ha Long Bay

Parachutes wrote: »

NPHET could come out and say it tomorrow and all the zombies would do it.

I am pretty confident they won't and its a hypothetical situation you have just made up to avoid the actual question.


Can you name one single place with a 3 mask policy as the other poster claimed?

Parachutes

john4321 wrote: »

I am pretty confident they won't and its a hypothetical situation you have just made up to avoid the actual question.


Can you name one single place with a 3 mask policy as the other poster claimed?

I never said anywhere had a 3 mask policy.

Ha Long Bay

Parachutes wrote: »

I never said anywhere had a 3 mask policy.

Thanks for clearing that up. We can all agree then there is no such policy and the OP is wrong.

GooglePlus

robbiezero wrote: »

I can confidently say removing the travel restrictions, letting people meet outdoors, outdoor dining, outdoor training etc will not result in a spike like Christmas or anywhere near it.

How can you be so confident, what are you basing that on?

That sounds like a move to the ease of restrictions we seen at the beginning of last summer, when our 7-day average was under 10 cases per day. We're just under 600 now, so it's a complete unknown to anyone, including you and me.

For the record, I'm for the gradual easing of restrictions like you mention, it needs to be done gradually and cautiously but I was referring to those who seem to think we can just hit a switch, open society full whack, and all will be fine.

Parachutes

Parachutes wrote: »

NPHET could come out and say it tomorrow and all the zombies would do it.

I have seen people in shops lately wearing 2 face masks which is a bit over the top.

El_Duderino 09

Mr. Karate wrote: »

I could probably find your sources dodgy as well. And what part of CNBC panel where "experts" claimed 3 would be better didn't you understand.

One good thing about the US is Fauci has appear before Congress to justify any limits and restrictions he wants. Luckily the Republicans have Rand Paul who is a doctor himself to challenge Fauci.

This Country would be in a much better place if we had some actual Opposition in the Dail and Seanad and Holohan had to appear before them and justify any of his recommendations. Instead of just being approved no questions asked like it currently is.

The other poster claimed it’s actual policy to wear three masks in some places. Do we have any evidence that that claim isn’t made up?

Ha Long Bay

Deleted User wrote: »

I have seen people in shops lately wearing 2 face masks which is a bit over the top.

What difference does it make to you even if they were wearing 10? Do you comment if you see someone 2 tee-shirts or a second jumper?

john4321

john4321 wrote: »

What difference does it make to you even if they were wearing 10? Do you comment if you see someone 2 tee-shirts or a second jumper?

Wearing 2 face masks is over the top and embarassing. Your probably one of these people who do

Mr. Karate

Deleted User wrote: »

Wearing 2 face masks is over the top and embarassing. Your probably one of these people who do

They're just a virtue signalling tool at this stage. "Look how I'M trying to keep YOU safe. Aren't I great?"

This is part of the reason why I expect people to still wear them even after we're told we don't have to wear them anymore.

Ha Long Bay

Deleted User wrote: »

Wearing 2 face masks is over the top and embarassing. Your probably one of these people who do

Why do you assume that?

El_Duderino 09

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They're just a virtue signalling tool at this stage. "Look how I'M trying to keep YOU safe. Aren't I great?"

This is part of the reason why I expect people to still wear them even after we're told we don't have to wear them anymore.

Wearing 2 masks is just a virtue signalling tool or wearing a mask is just a virtue signalling tool?

Ha Long Bay

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They're just a virtue signalling tool at this stage. "Look how I'M trying to keep YOU safe. Aren't I great?"

This is part of the reason why I expect people to still wear them even after we're told we don't have to wear them anymore.

Do you get as frustrated when you see people wearing gloves in winter to keep their hands warm or have you saw another Info Wars article that has led you to believe masks are evil?