When will it all end?

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

How come the UK variant isn't rampant over in the actual UK ?

Did they export it all

A whole week without asking the same question, well done.

How come the country with one of the highest vaccination rates isn't seeing as many cases? Could those two things be connected?

Accidentally

Scotty # wrote: »

And I know lots that don't... because of the rules in place.

Which is exactly the issue. We've got most of our population in lockdown and being told to keep trying, while we have a number of inconvenient truths which the government tries to play down or ignore. We are most definitely not all in this together

Accidentally

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It would be remis of them to ignore the entire topic of people coming from other countries through Norther Ireland, just because they don' have the manpower to enforce it. Not sure about your analogy for making covid spread illegal, but they make drugs illegal even though they only have resources to stop a fraction of the drugs that people attempt to import. It's a good rule whether they have the manpower to enforce it or not.

What happened to people taking personal responsibility in the absence of enforcement? Every few pages there are calls to allow people to make these assessments for themselves without enforcement. Does this issue suggest that people need enforcement to make good decisions?

95+% of people are taking personal responsibility. For the remainder we need the government to use a big stick. Unfortunately the government seem intent on using the big stick on the 95%, and ignoring the ones who don't play by the rules

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If you don't know what the threshold for herd immunity is, then how can you assert that we have reached it?

Nobody knows I've just listened to the experts and we're at it if you add the numbers up, it starts having an effect at 25%. We can see there is ready a decline and you can't credit lockdown and vaccines for it all.

El_Duderino 09

Accidentally wrote: »

Which is exactly the issue. We've got most of our population in lockdown and being told to keep trying, while we have a number of inconvenient truths which the government tries to play down or ignore. We are most definitely not all in this together

A few posts ago someone was saying it was stupid to make rules if they cant enforce them. Isn't that advocating for ignoring inconvenient truths if they don't have the manpower to enforce them?

El_Duderino 09

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Nobody knows I've just listened to the experts and we're at it if you add the numbers up, it starts having an effect at 25%. We can see there is ready a decline and you can't credit lockdown and vaccines for it all.

You started by asserting we have already achieved herd immunity and then say nobody knows what herd immunity rate is. Do you see the issue I'm getting at?

El_Duderino 09

Accidentally wrote: »

95+% of people are taking personal responsibility. For the remainder we need the government to use a big stick. Unfortunately the government seem intent on using the big stick on the 95%, and ignoring the ones who don't play by the rules

95%? where did you get then figure from?

If you're plucking figures from thin air why didn't you go for the full 100%?

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You started by asserting we have already achieved herd immunity and then say nobody knows what herd immunity rate is. Do you see the issue I'm getting at?

No I don't see the issue, I gave you figures with a conservative estimate of current immunity which surpasses what would be necessary for herd immunity.
I say nobody knows because nobody does, if you ask a Pharma CEO they'll say you need 100% vaccinated, Leo will say 70% and Fauci flip flops between 60 and 85%.
Ask a doctor and they'll say open up when the at risk are vaccinated.

Accidentally

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

95%? where did you get then figure from?

If you're plucking figures from thin air why didn't you go for the full 100%?

Because both you and I know that a small but growing number of people are ignoring some or all the rules. We can pick any % you fancy, a bit like the government and NPHET do with their statistics

Plumbthedepths

Accidentally wrote: »

Because both you and I know that a small but growing number of people are ignoring some or all the rules. We can pick any % you fancy, a bit like the government and NPHET do with their statistics

The longer this goes on do you think you will get more compliance or less?

PTH2009

hynesie08 wrote: »

A whole week without asking the same question, well done.

How come the country with one of the highest vaccination rates isn't seeing as many cases? Could those two things be connected?

Nice to hear from you again

dublin49

As far as I can see the fear of Health service being unable to cope with a massive surge is driving this ultra cautious approach from Government,because the primary concern of all politicans is " what policy gives me the best chance of being re-elected" and I suspect on balance they would prefer to defend the current cautious approach on the doorsteps rather than the unknown consequences that a more liberal opening up might yield. Its informative that the opposition SF have not taken on the mantle of the " opening up quicker party",they obviously agree there's no votes that route so its not NPHET driving this ,its the survival instinct of the Dail collective deciding this is the least worse option for them politically.

M_Murphy57

dublin49 wrote: »

As far as I can see the fear of Health service being unable to cope with a massive surge is driving this ultra cautious approach from Government,because the primary concern of all politicans is " what policy gives me the best chance of being re-elected" and I suspect on balance they would prefer to defend the current cautious approach on the doorsteps rather than the unknown consequences that a more liberal opening up might yield. Its informative that the opposition SF have not taken on the mantle of the " opening up quicker party",they obviously agree there's no votes that route so its not NPHET driving this ,its the survival instinct of the Dail collective deciding this is the least worse option for them politically.

Ff support has dropped 50% since the GE. Latest red C poll shows only one in ten would vote FF if the GE was today and 70% dont think they are doing a good job.

If this "policy" of 6 months of level 5, constant leaks, no plans, no roadmap and no leadership is a ploy to get votes it is seriously backfiring

https://www.redcresearch.ie/latest-polls/live-polling-tracker/

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

Nice to hear from you again

You too, how did your prediction of the government inventing a 1000 cases a day go?

dublin49

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

Ff support has dropped 50% since the GE. Latest red C poll shows only one in ten would vote FF if the GE was today and 70% dont think they are doing a good job.

If this "policy" of 6 months of level 5, constant leaks, no plans, no roadmap and no leadership is a ploy to get votes it is seriously backfiring

https://www.redcresearch.ie/latest-polls/live-polling-tracker/

I would think FF hope they will be forgiven when things improve.We all know politicans are well informed of the view on the ground,better than most,you would think there would be an almighty clamour for opening up as I imagine they are getting it in the neck from every direction.Surprisingly they are holding the
party line pretty well considering which suggests to me nobody or few feel their best interests will be served by embracing anything that might be deemed radical or risky.

El_Duderino 09

drunkmonkey wrote: »

No I don't see the issue, I gave you figures with a conservative estimate of current immunity which surpasses what would be necessary for herd immunity.
I say nobody knows because nobody does, if you ask a Pharma CEO they'll say you need 100% vaccinated, Leo will say 70% and Fauci flip flops between 60 and 85%.
Ask a doctor and they'll say open up when the at risk are vaccinated.

So we have surpassed herd immunity but we don't actually know what the herd immunity rate is, and you don't see the issue I'm pointing out. Is that a fair assessment of the things you've said?

If we are at over 85% immunity, and less than 15% of the population is susceptible, then why are 600 people a week still contracting covid in full lockdown conditions? Wouldn't the virus be running out of people to infect if it was down to 10% or 5% of the population without immunity?

Honestly, I think you have very little basis for the claims you're making in this regard. I see it as a wish expressed in an assertion.

El_Duderino 09

Accidentally wrote: »

Because both you and I know that a small but growing number of people are ignoring some or all the rules. We can pick any % you fancy, a bit like the government and NPHET do with their statistics

I won't pick any numbers out of the sky. I'd admit I don't know (and neither do you) and pick the numbers when there is evidence to pick them.

Seriously, picking numbers out of the sky and admitting to it, can't have felt good.

El_Duderino 09

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The longer this goes on do you think you will get more compliance or less?

if we're just making up numbers, what difference does it make?

ELM327

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

Ff support has dropped 50% since the GE. Latest red C poll shows only one in ten would vote FF if the GE was today and 70% dont think they are doing a good job.

If this "policy" of 6 months of level 5, constant leaks, no plans, no roadmap and no leadership is a ploy to get votes it is seriously backfiring

https://www.redcresearch.ie/latest-polls/live-polling-tracker/

I was a FG voter (and will remain a FG voter) so perhaps I'm biased. But the current government is not fit for purpose and we need Leo back as Taoiseach. We also need to get rid of the unelected lockdown fetishists that encompass NPHET. Finally, the government need to realise that the 5km limit is widely ignored and is frankly risible.


If your law is routinely disregarded and easy to avoid "flout" even, is it even a law at all?

Time to open up. UK are doing so at the start of April. We are behind them on vaccinations too. This banana republic is depressing to live in at times.

drunkmonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Then why are 600 people a week still contracting covid in full lockdown conditions?

How many of them even know they had it, we've resorted to opening pop up testing shops for people with no symptoms a week before an important Government announcement on easing restrictions.
It's like they want us to fail. It's pretty impossible to pass when the PCR test is pulling out fragments of a long gone virus.
ICU numbers are not rising expedientially, in fact they're not rising at all, that's all that matters. NPHET are now just playing a numbers game on us.

Plumbthedepths

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

if we're just making up numbers, what difference does it make?

Are you making up stuff?

El_Duderino 09

drunkmonkey wrote: »

How many of them even know they had it, we've resorted to opening pop up testing shops for people with no symptoms a week before an important Government announcement on easing restrictions.
It's like they want us to fail. It's pretty impossible to pass when the PCR test is pulling out fragments of a long gone virus.
ICU numbers are not rising expedientially, in fact they're not rising at all, that's all that matters. NPHET are now just playing a numbers game on us.

I don't know how many knew they had it. But it's also not relevant top the question i asked.

Why would ICU numbers rise exponentially if the infection numbers are relatively stable at 600 per week? Why would you even suggest that? Why did you quote the question you quoted but didn't address?

Honestly, we all want to be at or above herd immunity, but given that we don't even know what the herd immunity rate is, you really have no case that we've already exceeded herd immunity. Not based on evidence - only based on the wish that we would like it to be true,

El_Duderino 09

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Are you making up stuff?

No I would just say i don't know the percentage. the poster above made up the number 95%.

El_Duderino 09

It's pretty clearly a typo or a the person misspoke. I'm sure they meant 2,000 a day instead of 2,000 cases a week.

Edit: the post i was quoting is gone

robbiezero

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

Ff support has dropped 50% since the GE. Latest red C poll shows only one in ten would vote FF if the GE was today and 70% dont think they are doing a good job.

If this "policy" of 6 months of level 5, constant leaks, no plans, no roadmap and no leadership is a ploy to get votes it is seriously backfiring

https://www.redcresearch.ie/latest-polls/live-polling-tracker/

I wonder how much that poll will feed into their deliberations.

Scotty #

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

then why are 600 people a week still contracting covid in full lockdown conditions?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why would ICU numbers rise exponentially if the infection numbers are relatively stable at 600 per week?

I thought the first one was a mistake but you've said it twice now.... we're averaging 600 cases per DAY not per week.

It's actually closer to 580 but still very very high to be considering easing restrictions.

Currently 70 with Covid in ICU, up 4 since yesterday, which is 32% of our normal capacity, with just one illness!

GazzaL

dublin49 wrote: »

As far as I can see the fear of Health service being unable to cope with a massive surge is driving this ultra cautious approach from Government,because the primary concern of all politicans is " what policy gives me the best chance of being re-elected" and I suspect on balance they would prefer to defend the current cautious approach on the doorsteps rather than the unknown consequences that a more liberal opening up might yield. Its informative that the opposition SF have not taken on the mantle of the " opening up quicker party",they obviously agree there's no votes that route so its not NPHET driving this ,its the survival instinct of the Dail collective deciding this is the least worse option for them politically.

I was talking to a man in his 70s today, someone who'd be involved in lots of different community groups, and someone who'd fall into the category of people who always vote. He is sick to his back teeth of the restrictions.

The political parties have abandoned the centre ground, they've abandoned the active elderly, they've abandoned SMEs, they've abandoned people who want to earn an honest living to provide for their families. Who are these people meant to vote for? SF and the loony left want even more lockdowns, the Social Democrats have been influenced by Zero COVID extremists who wanted to run a mental terror campaign attacking the public to get people to do what they wanted. Who's left?

PlatisUkraine

Sadly, this whole situation can drag on for a very long time. Nobody knows what to do next ...

Hooked

Scotty # wrote: »

Currently 70 with Covid in ICU, up 4 since yesterday, which is 32% of our normal capacity, with just one illness!

If only they’d, you know, built some bloody capacity... like they promised a YEAR ago.

70 people. Out of a population of near 5 million...

As I’ve said time and again... this virus isn’t anywhere near as deadly as our piss poor health system would have us believe.

VonLuck

Hooked wrote: »

If only they’d, you know, built some bloody capacity... like they promised a YEAR ago.

70 people. Out of a population of near 5 million...

As I’ve said time and again... this virus isn’t anywhere near as deadly as our piss poor health system would have us believe.

Tell me, where do you think the government can magic up this additional capacity in the space of a year?