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When will it all end?
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Donald Trump wrote: »Things are normal now.
Just a new normal
Depressing. If this is normal then give me the disease. Can't be worse than this. At least than 1 per cent mortality I will take my chances.0 -
The UK aren't in the EU so can do what they want.
Hungary....bought the Russian vaccine and a Chinese one both of which haven't been approved by the EMA....I would prefer they go through the appropriate checks personally.
You also need to bare in mind Orban likes to be seen to stick it to the EU anytime he possibly can, it plays well to his supporters.
Germany stockpiled their own supply first. Hungart ordered outside the EU as a response to that.0 -
There's no such thing as a 'New Normal' You have normal and abnormal, that is all.0
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Deleted User wrote: »Germany stockpiled their own supply first. Hungart ordered outside the EU as a response to that.
We should have done the same. Germany did the same thing with ventilators and PPE and kept them. Even after Countries paid for them.0 -
Parachutes wrote: »There's no such thing as a 'New Normal' You have normal and abnormal, that is all.
What normal can change over time hoss0 -
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Parachutes wrote: »There's no such thing as a 'New Normal' You have normal and abnormal, that is all.
What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,0 -
The new strains are definitely a problem in terms of vaccines. There's a lot of positivity around research saying that some of the vaccines at least are effective against the new variants as they are a new variants rather than a completely new strain like what happens with the flu.
There's definitely more that can be done around border control but the idea of completely stopping the virus entering the country through controlling the borders is fantasy.
Agreed. You’ll never stop it completely. The goal should be to bring down imported cases sufficiently that we can handle what does come in. Border controls, and frequent routine testing probably both have a big role to play here. Right now, we’re not at the races in either department.
There are two other options I can think of. You could get to herd immunity via vaccination globally and wipe out COVID completely. The WHO still seem to be hanging their hat on that one. I can’t but think that’s an altruistic pipe dream though. Vaccine supply will follow the money. Maybe it’s possible in the very long term, but I just can’t see it for a long time. Most likely that wealthy vaccinated ‘zero COVID’ countries will instead isolate themselves from the poorer unvaccinated ones. Bye bye world as we knew it.
The other possibility is how the Spanish flu ended. Apparently it mutated into something less deadly, the seasonal flu effectively. That was driven by evolutionary pressures, as a deadly virus killing its hosts is killing its own chances of propagation. I don’t know enough to comment on whether this applies to COVID. I think it’s complicated. For example, with COVID the transmission goes up as people cough more. So maybe it would make evolutionary sense then for COVID to mutate into something that tends towards less asymptomatic cases. Who knows, but I wouldn’t be banking on the answer either way.0 -
Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,
So it never ends ?0 -
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Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,
If you had even passing knowledge of virology or history, you would that this is not even remotely true. It’s funny how someone so clearly ignorant of almost everything related to this issue posts something so confidently. Not content to be wrong about public health, you then dip your toe into economics as well! Next you’ll be on here confidently posting about the future of Saudi foreign policy and commodity prices in Asia.0 -
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mcsean2163 wrote: »Sorry, I'm using language that even a 5 year old could understand but I'll try again.
Option 1 is mass deaths. I was saying no to option 1.
I said yes to option 2. One island or close border solution to eradicate covid19
I'm afraid I've been dealing with young children and assumed an adult might have a similar level of comprehension but that's an unfair assumption.
I hope this helps to explain my preferences.
Have you considered that the current actions of the population of ireland would make eradication even with closed borders a near impossibility.
NZ did it when the original case numbers were tiny and through lockdowns more extreme than our first.
If we had a chance it was probably post first lockdown but even then it was a slim one at best.
NZ didn't have gombeens throwing parties for 90 people and getting everyone infected.
Just a sd reality that I cannot see us irish capable of doing whats needed to achieve this end of. Personal opinion based on a lifetime in the nation of course.0 -
lads vaccinate vulnerable , and good portion of rest deaths go down , hospitalization geos down and thats it over. it will still be out there killing people but not in high numbers, so no more need of restrictions , al we awanted was not to overcrowd hospitals. Britain will open up in summer and we will be quickly behind.0
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As (I/we) are 60+ and following all the rules, sadly large numbers of population are not, in addition our Government is NOT protecting us as it should.
Even if we inoculate/vaccine everybody in Ireland right now today/tomorrow, every man women & child we still have the problem of people crossing the border (in & out) and those flying (in & out) of the country. We all love our pets, we look after them, treasure them, inoculations, boosters, exercise, keeping away from other animals, look at what we done for foot & mouth disease in the past, ….
The HSE, hospitals, doctors and staff and doing a marvelous job, how long can they cope with limited budgets/staff; our whole health system is crazy and was always underfunded and short-handed. It never was and is not now today fit for purpose.
Just walk the streets of any village/town/city, too many people out, too many large groups, too many in shops, no social distancing, some still not wearing masks, teenagers/young adults in large groups, people spitting on the footpaths, etc. etc …………………. The list goes on & on ………….
Look at Taiwan, international figures say less than 1000 cases and less than a dozen deaths, why so low do you ask. Simple – they took the hard decisions when needed and stuck with them. (country lockdown, regional lockdowns as necessary, all travelers in/out of country tested, mandatory quarantine, the state provided health workers, health care, arranged transport, daily meal delivery, daily medical care, contact & tracing, daily personal contacts, and follow-up with phone calls, etc. etc. ……………………….
NOTE, I am not looking for or advocating state control, far from it, BUT, when the **** hits the fan we need out Politicians/Government to act in our best interest, sadly the state has not do so to date.
We are either in a lockdown, a proper lockdown or something else. The half-hearted measures so far are not working.0 -
Wow. That's one of the most pessimistic predictions I've ever seen. Personally, I think (hope) things will go back substantially to the way they were.Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,
It seems to be fizzling out in India, and it's only partly due to vaccines. Data from the capital Delhi suggests that half of the population (10 million people) have already been infected.
200 cases/day in a city of 20 million!Another sign the area is reaching herd immunity is the rapidly declining COVID-19 positivity rate, which currently stands at about 0.3 per cent. From more than 7,000 daily cases at the peak in November 2020, Delhi is now recording fewer than 200 cases per day.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210129/herd-immunity-in-sight-for-indias-capital0 -
Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,
I don't know if your serious and therefore speaking rubbish or trying to be funny and also talking rubbish. No high capacity transport, no concerts/pubs/matches. Get out of that. We will be back to normal its just a case of whether its this year or next year. There may still be restrictions to some countries in the 3rd world countries where mutations and lack of vaccines will have an impact for a few years.0 -
If interacting socially is a thing of the past then just hand out the ****ing suicide pills now.Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
If everybody was vaccinated then why would we give a single **** who was crossing the border?Even if we inoculate/vaccine everybody in Ireland right now today/tomorrow, every man women & child we still have the problem of people crossing the border (in & out) and those flying (in & out) of the country.0 -
bucketybuck wrote: ».............If everybody was vaccinated then why would we give a single **** who was crossing the border?[/QUOTE]
WHY, because we need to know that those coming into the country are clear of the virus and vaccinated.
Regardless of virus, you should always know who comes into our jurisdiction, then again we are used to lax laws or Irish solutions to Irish problems, very few if any worked in the past or now.
Just my tuppence worth.0 -
You're saying no but you're still ok with having mass deaths just so the people who don't die can return to some kind of normality rather than open up slowly?
We already accept mass deaths as a consequence of the normal functioning of society.
Covid might be more dangerous than influenza but the central moral question is the same really - should life as know it be shutdown and subjected to increasingly harsh restrictions to save x number of vulnerable people?0 -
Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »What is normal can change. A revised normal. A modified normal. Or what ever way you prefer to put it.
The bottom line is that life for some decades will not be as it was for the world before 2020. People will adapt. But many still have too rosy a view of vaccines as a silver bullet that will reset things to 2019. They will not. But will make the world a more tolerable place even if the virus and its mutations are a constant battle.
The people who think previous life will be restored are those who cannot handle it not being so, and so deceive themselves that such a vista is too terrible to contemplate, and so cannot be so. Similar to those who though Covid was less of a problem than the winter flue, or that 'cancelling' Patricks Day was unthinkable.
Fighting covid will be part of life for the rest of the lives of everyone alive today. Vaccine developpement will struggle to be a step ahead of mutations. We will be getting boosters or revisions, every six or 12 months. There will be flare ups and with rolling revisions to what countries people can travel between and ones with restriction. Crowded activities like jammed pubs, football games, or high density public transport is a thing of the past. There will be price inflation as a result, and some activites previously withing the compass of many, will be priced out of their reach again.
Call it what you will, but a new normal, is as good a phrase as any,
So miserable, so pessimistic! this virus has really shown how many people need to fill a void in their lives. The equivalent of curtain twitchers back in the day looking out for something worse than their own existence.0 -
70% is the magic herd immunity number, right? For permanent immunities. As opposed to a year's immunity or whatever - we don't know how long the vaccines provide immunity for. If we make it to 70% and the virus is still circulating, it will come back when the immunity wears off. Hopefully people won't go too mental and we can just plow on and get the remaining 30% before immunities wane.Responder XY wrote: »As posted on some other threads - this will all end when 70% of the population is vaccinated (according to Philip Nolan)
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/no-mass-gatherings-until-70-of-the-population-vaccinated-says-nphet-member-1073452.html
Hopefully that's not as far off as we all fear. Certainly from the soundings by ministers, it should be in Q3. Also that's effectively lv. 0 he's talking about, once we get to lv. 3 life gets a whole lot more pleasant. Very hopeful it'll be lv. 4 on 5th March, Lv. 3 in April/May and lv. 2 by June, Lv. 1 in August!0 -
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.............We already accept mass deaths as a consequence of the normal functioning of society.
Covid might be more dangerous than influenza but the central moral question is the same really - should life as know it be shutdown and subjected to increasingly harsh restrictions to save x number of vulnerable people?
The 64 thousand question and everyone has their own views, I believe YES.
IMHO if we shutdown earlier last year, a proper shutdown, we would not be in Level 5 right now.
Sadly, both my parents are deceased, will deaths occur, of course, its a natural part of life. That does NOT stop us from preventing any more un necessary deaths.0 -
-Aldous HuxleyA really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude0 -
The 64 thousand question and everyone has their own views, I believe YES.
IMHO if we shutdown earlier last year, a proper shutdown, we would not be in Level 5 right now.
Sadly, both my parents are deceased, will deaths occur, of course, its a natural part of life. That does NOT stop us from preventing any more un necessary deaths.
Wrong answer.
At least it's the wrong answer if you want more out of life than wrapping yourself in cotton wool and never leaving the front door.
We could prevent thousands of unnecessary deaths (WHO estimates up to 650,000 fatalities per year due to influenza) by locking down every flu season. We don't, because society cannot function this way and it is not a proportional response to an illness that isn't dangerous to most people. Covid may be a different virus and somewhat more dangerous but the central moral question remains the same.0 -
mcsean2163 wrote: »Sorry, I'm using language that even a 5 year old could understand but I'll try again.
Option 1 is mass deaths. I was saying no to option 1.
I said yes to option 2. One island or close border solution to eradicate covid19
I'm afraid I've been dealing with young children and assumed an adult might have a similar level of comprehension but that's an unfair assumption.
I hope this helps to explain my preferences.
Even a 5 year old could understand that the Nothern Ireland border can't be closed if it's explained enough times but that doesn't seem to be the case with everyone.
Which part of it don't you understand?
Closing the borders, mandatory quarantine and all the other measures will never get zero covid if you have still have hundreds of truck drivers still coming in. Even with testing there is still a chance that the virus can still get in so while this is the case there will still be a need for restrictions.0 -
Tiredandcranky wrote: »Agreed. You’ll never stop it completely. The goal should be to bring down imported cases sufficiently that we can handle what does come in. Border controls, and frequent routine testing probably both have a big role to play here. Right now, we’re not at the races in either department.
There are two other options I can think of. You could get to herd immunity via vaccination globally and wipe out COVID completely. The WHO still seem to be hanging their hat on that one. I can’t but think that’s an altruistic pipe dream though. Vaccine supply will follow the money. Maybe it’s possible in the very long term, but I just can’t see it for a long time. Most likely that wealthy vaccinated ‘zero COVID’ countries will instead isolate themselves from the poorer unvaccinated ones. Bye bye world as we knew it.
The other possibility is how the Spanish flu ended. Apparently it mutated into something less deadly, the seasonal flu effectively. That was driven by evolutionary pressures, as a deadly virus killing its hosts is killing its own chances of propagation. I don’t know enough to comment on whether this applies to COVID. I think it’s complicated. For example, with COVID the transmission goes up as people cough more. So maybe it would make evolutionary sense then for COVID to mutate into something that tends towards less asymptomatic cases. Who knows, but I wouldn’t be banking on the answer either way.
So what is your suggestion? Border controls and frequent routine testing indefinitely until the virus mutates into something less deadly?0 -
We already accept mass deaths as a consequence of the normal functioning of society.
Covid might be more dangerous than influenza but the central moral question is the same really - should life as know it be shutdown and subjected to increasingly harsh restrictions to save x number of vulnerable people?
We also expect that if we have a car accident or some ailment not related to covid that if we need to go to a hospital we will be seen by a medical professional and a bed will be available for treatment. This won't be the case if the virus is allowed to rip through society.
Deaths while tragic are only part of the problem with covid19. The bigger issue is actually with thousands of moderately sick people taking up hospital beds and resources which is very probable given how the virus spreads. Do you accept that if we were to open everything up tomorrow that there's a possibility that a huge number of people would need hospital treatment within weeks and without that hospital treatment a lot more would die unnecessarily?0 -
So what is your suggestion? Border controls and frequent routine testing indefinitely until the virus mutates into something less deadly?
From what we’ve reasoned out, it seems like that’s the way it’s headed, doesn’t it? Some areas of the world will be COVID free, some won’t. Travel can take place freely between COVID free areas, but we will need border controls to protect against those who aren’t. Probably the EU are thinking of doing this on an EU wide level. Either way, as borders can’t be hermetically sealed (and even if they are, testing is not 100% accurate), we can expect a few cases to seep through, and a proportion of those will be vaccine resistant I.e. a new disease effectively. We will need testing capability ... routine (On high frequency travellers presumably like truck drivers), and rapid (antigen testing might be the way to go here) ideally to spot these cases and contain before they force another lockdown. I suppose another reasonable assumption, given human propensity for error etc., is that this system may occasionally fail, leading to occasional short lockdowns.
I don’t share the pessimistic view that events with crowds will never take place again. Not sure who posted it, but I don’t understand your logic there. If we’re in a COVID free part of the world, have border controls, and rapid test and trace, why can’t we live normally?0 -
Do you accept that if we were to open everything up tomorrow that there's a possibility that a huge number of people would need hospital treatment within weeks and without that hospital treatment a lot more would die unnecessarily?
I actually don't accept this at all. When the most vulnerable are vaccinated we must open up, if hospitalizations increase then we have to scale up our hospital capacity and improve our treatments. This is the only "new normal" I am willing to accept when people are no longer dying of covid 19. It's already starting to kick off around the EU, not widely reported but it will happen here too when our death count gets to almost zero.0 -
questionmark? wrote: »I don't know if your serious and therefore speaking rubbish or trying to be funny and also talking rubbish. No high capacity transport, no concerts/pubs/matches. Get out of that. We will be back to normal its just a case of whether its this year or next year. There may still be restrictions to some countries in the 3rd world countries where mutations and lack of vaccines will have an impact for a few years.
You acknowledge that it will continue for years in some parts of the world, but you think we’ll be back to normal. Do you think the virus mutations will respect our first world status and leave us alone? Maybe it will be repelled by money (or maybe it’s the Celtic tiger style decking).
If the virus has dangerous mutations in some parts of the world then it will still be a problem. It’s a global problem. There’s very little chance that the virus could be a big problem in some parts of the world without spreading to other parts.
Unless by “normal” you mean severe restrictions on international travel and masks and distancing, then you might be right. But if you think it could be normal in Ireland while there are vaccine resistant or more dangerous versions of the virus out there, then you’re just not joining the dots.0 -
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El_Duderino 09 wrote: »You acknowledge that it will continue for years in some parts of the world, but you think we’ll be back to normal. Do you think the virus mutations will respect our first world status and leave us alone? Maybe it will be repelled by money (or maybe it’s the Celtic tiger style decking).
If the virus has dangerous mutations in some parts of the world then it will still be a problem. It’s a global problem. There’s very little chance that the virus could be a big problem in some parts of the world without spreading to other parts.
Unless by “normal” you mean severe restrictions on international travel and masks and distancing, then you might be right. But if you think it could be normal in Ireland while there are vaccine resistant or more dangerous versions of the virus out there, then you’re just not joining the dots.
Agree that restrictions on international travel are needed to get back to normal, but why would we need masks and social distancing? Suppose we achieve zero COVID here, via vaccinations, masks, social distancing etc., then control the borders, and use rapid/frequent test and trace to control any cases that seep across. We may need the occasional short lockdown if our test/trace fails, but apart from that life can be normal, or very very close. Or am I missing something?0
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